Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has cut fixed home loan rates for 6, 12 and 18 month terms. NBS (Nelson Building Society) has trimmed its two fixed rates. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has also cut some term deposit rates. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
A SHARP SWOON IN JUNE
Xero says monthly small business sales fell by the most in June since May 2020 during the pandemic lockdown.
SWOON II
The latest mortgage figures from the Reserve Bank show that the 14,590 new mortgages in June 2024 was the lowest total for a June month since the detailed data began in 2015.
OVERSEAS HOUSE BUYERS VERY SCARCE
There were 33,609 property transfers involving a home in the June quarter (up +12% from the June 2023 quarter), according to updated data from Stats NZ today. Of these, 77% (25,989) were to at least one NZ citizen, 12% (3,978) were to at least one NZ-resident-visa holder (but no citizens), 11 (3,531) were to corporate entities only (these could have NZ or overseas owners), and 0.3% (114) were to no NZ citizens or resident-visa holders. 804 or 2.4% were to buyers who all stated an overseas tax residency, including: Australia with 306 home transfers, United States with 120, the UK with 87, and China with 48.
GOOD DEMAND, STABLE YIELD
Today's NZGB $500 mln bond tender got 97 bids worth $1.2 bln. The $300 mln April 2029 tranche went for 4.08% and unchanged from a week ago. The $200 mln May 2035 went for a yield of 4.48% and there has been no previous tender for this maturity.
HACKED
Squirrel said it has been hacked, with about up to 600 customers having had their licence, passport numbers compromised. The exposed clients are for Squirrel's peer-to-peer investment scheme who signed up recently, and the breach was in their "know your customer" systems. No ransom demand has been received yet, the company said.
WHEAT PRICE MANIPULATION ALLEGED, 34 TIMES
Beijing-headquartered China Oil and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) is a giant state-owned food processing holding company, China's largest food processor, manufacturer and trader. In Australia, ASIC is suing them for market manipulation of Australian wheat futures contracts.
BOND PRICE MANIPULATION ALLEGED
ANZ Australia is embroiled in allegations it manipulated AU$14 bln of Australian government bond sales, probably 'the biggest scandal' in the ANZ Group’s 182-year history. The AOFM and ASIC are both involved. Update: ANZ Group issued this statement today.
SWAP RATES REMAIN WEAKISH
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be again influenced by low loan demand and downward receive-side pressure at the short end. (See this.) But may be holding or up at the long end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -4 bps at 5.49% and a 110 day low. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -4 bps from this time yesterday to 4.37%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.23% in what looks like a controlled easing. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 4.47% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.42% and up +1 bp from this time yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is up also +1 bp at 4.27%. Their 2yr is now at 4.41% is another notable fall, so that curve is now inverted by 'only' -14 bps.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is down -0.5% in late trade in a global sea of retreats. The ASX200 is down -1.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Thursday trade down a sharp -2.5%. Hong Kong is down -1.7% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.8%. Singapore is down -0.7%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 down a painful -2.3%.
OIL SLIPS SLIGHTLY
The oil price is down again to just under US$77/bbl in the US (down less than -50 USc), and now below US$80.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS SOFT
Today the carbon price fell marginally again, now $50.25/NZU and down from $50.50/NZU at this time yesterday.
GOLD RETREATS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$42 from this time yesterday at US$2371/oz.
NZD SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +½c at 90.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down slightly at 54.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.4 and little-changed.
BITCOIN RETRACES FURTHER
The bitcoin price is down -2.1% from this this time yesterday, now at US$64,150. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.
USE OF AI
No articles on this news service are produced with AI. Occasionally we use AI to derive images. They are always identified in the attribution.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
79 Comments
Aotearoa's Rate Riddle: November's Beat
In the land of long white clouds, the rhythm beats,
Aotearoa's heartbeat, a financial feat.
November winds are blowing, cold and sly,
Economists whisper, “What rates might apply?”
The Reserve Bank’s pondering, a puzzle to solve,
Aotearoa's economy starts to evolve.
Whispers of inflation float through the air,
Kiwis wondering if rates will go here or there.
Down in Wellington, where the bigwigs meet,
The graphs and charts shuffle, numbers take their seat.
Will they hold steady, or take a bold leap,
Cut those rates down low, or make a steep creep?
Bang bang bang! goes the market drum,
Investors’ ears perk up, wondering what's to come.
Farmers in the fields, eyes on the yields,
Exporters and importers, sealing their deals.
The sheep graze quietly, unaware of the race,
The rate debate shaping the economic face.
Kiwibank whispers, ASB shouts,
The winds of change toss currency about.
Households wonder, what lies ahead,
Fixed or floating, how best to tread?
A nation on edge, waiting to hear,
The Reserve Bank’s decree, a financial frontier.
The Auckland skyline stands tall and bright,
Amidst it all, hope’s flickering light.
Canterbury plains, where the wheat waves sway,
Wondering how November will play.
The pacific waves crash against the shore,
Economic tides shifting ever more.
Beat beat beat! goes the economist’s pen,
Forecasts and speculations again and again.
Trade winds carrying whispers of change,
Global forces at play, a dynamic range.
Gas prices rise, dairy struggles fall,
A nation's balance, they seek to recall.
Oh, Kiwis, watch for November's surprise,
In the world of finance, nothing’s disguised.
The Reserve Bank’s verdict, soon to unfold,
A story of rates, a saga retold.
The beat goes on in Aotearoa’s land,
Interest rates dance, a wavering band.
Hold tight, New Zealand, November’s on stage,
In the rhythm of change, a new financial page.
Qu'e Ser'a Ser'a November 24'
Dem cats a scratchin , Expectation upon yonder Federal Nation ! ,White eyes ! with Snakes asunder !, Novembers rate Dot plot 5, 11 to 8 ! ,Grand Old party ! Little Horn November 5!, Pivot on Tariffs ...you decide? Qu'e Ser'a Ser'a November 24' ! ..... (All rights reserved 25.07. 2024 'Phalanax')
Easy to spot AI as it has a very distinctive flow in dialog and often cannot match human qualities in language. However most people are not familiar with skills needed to spot AI. Just like how many get catfished or scammed by the old school robot callers, or how you set up many humans with a sex chat bot and they would be perfectly happy and yet real relationships with humans become more difficult and incomprehensible to them and they fail to accommodate for views outside of their own.
An AI is likely to fill the same space as the yes men in the office and if that is the quality you expect in a perfect employee then sure job done. But if you want to be aware of mission critical failure points, creative work or things you did not account for outside of your perspective AI does not fill that niche without near carbon copying the work of humans but fails to grasp the concepts used. We don't have semantic understanding in AI nor semantic web results, just repetition of existing material parsed through machine learning language models. See the above poem with exceptional lack of understanding about November for a southern hemisphere gives you an idea where some of the material was copied from then combined with the works of others.
Yet no AI was used at all in the above poem... let me break the poem down for you... Que sera sera ....brings in a musical element that is designed to penetrate the readers mindset whilst reading the verse... dem cats....would be the democrats-- scratched biden...the expectation upon yonder is the fact that RBNZ would be piling on risk to move against the Fed rate setting...white eyes would be the outcome of moving against the fed, snakes asunder would be trouble in gods own down under ... Novembers settings pure logic...little horn is Trump , pivot on tariffs is the belief that if Trump raises tariffs global inflation will rise...you decide is letting the reader choose ...whatever will be will be....lol .... as for Novembers Southern hemisphere or indeed Wellington ... What impact will such have on rates....? NZ sets no global rates ... Nice critique but where is its artful insight ? .... AI could not manufacture such complexity. Heres a short poem about thoughts...Perhaps you could determine if it is AI generated...
'THOUGHTS'
The thought...I thought....has flown and left me all alone , Whenceforth did it go ? ....I most earnestly will never know , Alas IT has not been long....but theres another thought...JUST gone... (all rights reserved ) Seems to me that AI brings with it a new challenge to artists one of 'authenticity' whereby critics will likely label an original work as AI generated when such may not be so at all.... things could get messy.....lol
All eyes on JPY. It's uncommon to see JPY carry trade unwinds of this scale outside of crisis (if indeed it is unwinding). Difficult to see it being intervention. AUDJPY now the most oversold since early 2020. JPYNZD up 8% in a month.
Naturally, the Nikkei is being smashed. But that's a whole other can of worms. BOJ already owns JPY70 trillion through ETFs and is the largest shareholder in more than half of Nikkei companies.
Apparently local Govt envy is now finding new rorts to ripoff property owners in Queensland
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-25/gold-coast-high-rise-rates-incre…
Absolute cruelty!
" ...a person living in a $2 million, $3 million, $5 million penthouse (pays) exactly the same rates as on the ground floor.... (one owner) who lives on the 18th floor of a high-rise on the Gold Coast, said her rates had increased by about $100... (another) lives on the 26th floor of a high-rise tower and said her rates for the first half of the year had increased from $1,938 to $2,151....the increase could be described as a "wealth tax" but that it was hard to cavil with."
I'll wager most of the rates paid by people on this site are more.
I pay $8,400 a year in rates in Christchurch, and if I swapped my house for one of the same value on the Gold Coast I would pay $2400-$2600 a year in rates, saving myself around $6000 a year to spend on other things. Next year my rates will go up another 10% minimum.
It would useful if you could give some context to your high rates. I live in NP and will pay just under $4000/yr on a ~665m2 section with a '76 house of 155m2 and detached garage of 31m2. For all i know you could be living in a 300-400m2 mansion on 1000m2 section, justifying those rates. NPDC base their rates on land value with TRC on land + improved value
Why should property or land value determine rates?
It doesn't necessarily follow that more expensive properties use more of council services/expenditure. Value is primarily a location indicator.
Rates appear to be primarily differentiated on the illegitimate basis of an envy tax.
The problem in Christchurch and also elsewhere is that the calculation factor that was ushered in decades ago that consideration of improved value has now compounded to situations that are both inequitable and distorted. Supposedly rates are charged for goods and services provided by the council. Yet the following anomaly is commonplace. Two neighbouring houses, same size sections, structure and street frontage and same number of occupants. One pays $10,100 and the other $6,900 annual rates. Why? Because the former is a EQ rebuild and consequently of higher value. In its basic form this represents a quasi wealth tax. The councils and central government who collect 15% GST on the nicety of the arrangement, need to come clean and admit it no longer can be described evenly as a goods and service charge. In fact the GST is a tax on a tax and should be scrubbed.
Wasn’t complicated to introduce GST on rates anymore than it would be removing it. What is complicated is the distortion and inequity inflicted by dint of how a tax on a tax compounds. However, and somewhat in contradiction to my earlier post, its removal would likely be nullified as councils would just claw back their rate catchment to the same level(s.)
A 4 bedroom house on a 500 sqm section in town. And it doesnt make a difference what it is, as I am comparing a house of exactly the same $$$ value on the Gold Coast, except in that case that would be a 4 bedroom house a block from the beach, with a pool, neither of which I have in Christchurch.
One of the big issues with property - whether its in GC, Miami, Los Angeles, Nu Zillun - is that it's a sitting duck for cash-strapped local govts. Very difficult to run away or protect assets from their claims. Victoria Govt is now targeting property to deal with its ginormous debt caused by Covid, poor management, and corruption.
Folk who unexpectedly and suddenly found their home to have risen in value over the last three years or so may well find that their increased equity, even though attained involuntarily, is targeted by their local council for rates. That temptation would be to councils as alluring as income tax (PAYE) is to governments.
Folk who unexpectedly and suddenly found their home to have risen in value over the last three years or so may well find that their increased equity, even though attained involuntarily, is targeted by their local council for rates.
Everyone's a happy camper in the ascendency.
That’s exactly the point. All those properties, across the board having risen substantially in value, arriveat a substantial increase in the value of the housing stock in said catchment and offers said council either incentive or justification, or both, to raise rates relatively. Or to put it crudely - your house is worth a whole heap more now, so you can afford to pay a whole heap more rates.
Just a pistake. Feel it's always good to have a laugh at yourself, individually and collectively. But if it's offensive, I will of course refrain from using it, unlike those who continue to use the nickname C _ _ _ y to refer to Dame Jacinda Kate Laurell Ardern GNZM.
ALL Local Governments. EVERYWHERE, will continue to require more-than-inflation 'funding'.
Until the System cracks under the pressure.
People who have decided GROWTH could go on forever (and who laid bets on that, or created persona requiring same) will blame 'others'.
The Left, Greenies, Red Tape, Councils, whatever - anything but admit the truth. We have one or two classics of that kind, hereabouts.
The $200 mln May 2035 went for a yield of 4.48% and there has been no previous tender for this maturity.
The associated interpolated, mid IR swap yield priced at minus 30.05bps. I guess dealers expect the back end of the 3mth bank bill FRA stack out to ~11years will be lower than today.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust slammed overnight - down 11.6%. Now down 17.9% YTD and 51% in past 5 years.
Probably nothing or is the US Ponzi little more than a mirage?
Squirrel said it has been hacked, with about up to 600 customers having had their licence, passport numbers compromised.
I got an apology email from them. The COO, not Squirrel Bolton. Never done business with them but think I possibly registered as a P2P lender a long time ago.
Funny as it doesn’t matter if someone gets your passport details as you cant control what happens after this and they’ll never be able to forge an NZ passport die to how many security features it has. No need to get a new one, nothing will ever be impacted travel-wise.
I occasionally follow (UK/GBP)/NZD and within 3-5 years ago it was 0.52. Its now 0.46. I was under the impression the UK is in an economic mess. My non economic mind indicates from the change in rates over the 3-5yrs that the NZ economy must be in dire economic straights. Happy to be informed otherwise.
The big banks don’t care about what the RBNZ thinks. People are not borrowing enough and the big banks are not making enough dosh accordingly. In other words if the big banks calculate they will make more money from lower interest rates, the big banks will lower interest rates. The column alongside here about the big red bank is somewhat indicative of the theory.
Aussie media now turning on foreign students - supposedly the customer for their key "export" of education - for gaming food charities.
The hypocrisy is rife. Note: Ben Fordham states he does not blame the students.
With additional pressure placed on critical services across the nation, foreign university students—who pay exorbitant university fees—have now come under fire.
Many are getting their weekly groceries from charity and even releasing how-to guides on taking advantage of the system.
https://www.2gb.com/exclusive-foreign-students-busted-exploiting-food-c…
This is a thing commonly done in NZ too, we just are more blatant and even include mass deliveries of free alcohol (of tens of liters per student per party) to student flats. We also supply them free doctor & MH care, free furniture, free trailer & skip bin rental, housing & much larger income support, residency without skills or jobs requirements etc
Meanwhile destitute kiwis are often going without essential needs. It is a matter of ageism where we preference benefits to those who don't need them and are in wealthy positions at either end but ignore those who actually need support. Like the freebies offered to politicians as well. Maybe we should start reassessing need in times when incomes and wealth divides have shifted and we stopped relying on institutions as dumping grounds to make the poor disappear from the public view.
so if you get free food (needed due to poverty) from a Food Bank, do you get free Beer (needed due to dehydration) from a Beer Bank.... ?
Asking for a friend who is parched ... please post links late tonight when everyone is asleep so I (sorry he) can queue early in the morning...
Australia’s ‘Liar in Chief’. The Aussies don’t pussy foot around with undeserved respectful tones for their corrupt pollies, and I like that:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/07/meet-australian-housings-liar-…
Slightly off topic - this is why NZ needs to join Australia
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.