Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
FinanceDirect raised its 18 month - 36 month term deposit rates.
TOP END STRENGTH
Dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson said it's November sales transactions were up strongly, and prices also rose. They recorded particularly strong sales growth at the top end of the market last month.
UPSIDE RISKS?
The overnight dairy auction impressed some analysts. For example, Westpac said "Dairy auction prices posted solid gains overnight. The positive result was also broad-based. As a result, we see some upside risks to our 2023/24 milk price forecast of $7.25/kg."
KIWIBANK BEGINS OFFERING APPLE PAY
Kiwibank has finally begun offering Apple Pay to its customers, which was first offered in NZ by ANZ in October 2016. CEO Steve Jurkovich says Kiwibank staff have put in "a huge amount of work to drive forward our technology transformation" over the past few years. There's plenty more to come after the launch of Apple Pay, he says.
DEBUT TOUTS PROGRESS
Fintech Debut says while its services aren't yet available to the general public, it has now launched mobile payments via "an early production" version with a select group of colleagues, friends, family and business partners who can "pay for things using their phone or watch via Debut." It's promising "a big reveal along with some exciting announcements in January."
ASB TO OFFER WOOLWORTHS REWARDS TO CREDIT CARD CUSTOMERS
ASB says it has signed up to be "founding bank partner" for Woolworths' Everyday Rewards programme which launches in February. This means ASB Rewards credit card customers will have the choice of earning Everyday Rewards points on their credit card spend, or redeeming them on their grocery shop at Woolworths, or fuel at BP. Countdown supermarkets are being rebranded as Woolworths.
CAR LOANS SECURITISED
Avanti just securitised $200 mln of its car loan book, selling it to investors.
98% NOT VEGETARIAN
Researchers at Auckland University say that the widely-quoted level of how many Kiwis are vegetarian (20%) is almost certainly a wild overestimation. Their intensive research shows it closer to 2%. Vegan is likely less than 1%. (That seems right to us; the vegetarian cafe on the street level of our office building folded recently, unable to generate enough interest.)
ANOTHER FAILED CARBON MARKET TENDER
Today's carbon market tender was a fizzer (or in the official speak "the auction did not clear"). There were 15 mln offered, but bids for only 3.6 mln. And those bids were less than for the Q3 event, and were at prices that did not induce the Government to sell. The most recent NZU price has been $75/NZU. According to ANZ, the price would have needed to be at least $173/NZU to get the Crown to sell 2.9 mln units, and $216/NZU to get them interested in the rest. Obviously bids didn't come anywhere near that. The new government is going to can a review of the ETS. There was already significant uncertainty around the ETS, but a cancelled review doesn't address carbon market uncertainty. Just for perspective, the EU carbon price is now down at €71 (NZ$125) and its lowest in 14 months and back to levels first achieved in November 2021. Carbon prices are falling worldwide now. More here.
UNPLEASANT NOVEMBER
The independent Aussie PMI from the Australian Industry Group was something of a depressing read. Their Index sank deeper into contraction in November on the back of falling demand and activity. It is now back at levels last seen in the depths of the pandemic. The activity/sales, new orders and input volumes indicators all materially fell in the month. Employment increased marginally. November is the lowest reading since June 2020. On a trend basis, all four activity indicators point to contractionary conditions.
PLEASANT SURPRISE, OR NOT
Australia released at Q3 GDP data today, showing their economy grew +2.1% in the September quarter from the same period in 2022. That is better than the expected +1.8% year-on-year expansion, and the same as their Q2 expansion. Having noted all these year-on-year changes, we should also note that the change from the June quarter came in softer than anticipated - and it is this softness that is grabbing headlines across the ditch, especially the lower household incomes. It is a sharp contraction in per capita terms.
CHINA REDUX?
China is really battling that flu outbreak we noted a week or so ago. Hospitals are crowded, healthcare employees very stressed. Authorities are worried, using language that is easily decoded by their population..
SWAPS SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally lower today. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.64% and now +14 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -15 bps 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.70%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -10 bps at 4.92%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.84% which was down -15 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.19% and down -7 bps from yesterday. The UST 2yr is now at 4.60% so that key curve inversion is marginally higher at -41 bps.
EQUITIES RETREAT
The NZX50 is heading for a minor -0.2% retreat in late trade today. But the ASX200 is down a more substantial -0.9% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -1.4%. Hong Kong has opened down -1.2% with its usual volatility. Shanghai is down -0.6% at its open. And Singapore is little-changed at its start. The S&P500 ended down -0.5% in Monday trade in New York.
OIL SLIPS YET AGAIN
The crude oil price is down -US$1 from yesterday, now at a low US$72.50/bbl in the US, and the Brent benchmark is at US$77.50/bbl.
GOLD RETRACES FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2020/oz and down another -US$14 from this time yesterday. Earlier in New York it closed at US$2019/oz. And earlier still it closed in London at US$2023/oz.
NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is moved sideways, net, from this time yesterday at 61.6 USc. Against the Aussie we have risen +40 bps to 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 57.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is marginally higher at 70.6.
BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
The bitcoin price has moved up to US$43,847, a new 20 month high and up +5.1% from where this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.7%.
APOLOGY IN ADVANCE
Please note that tomorrow's edition of this report might be a tad later than its usual 4pm release. (Or maybe it will not even appear.) It is the interest.co.nz end of year function starting at mid-day.
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72 Comments
Interesting article re oil pricing
https://unherd.com/thepost/opec-is-losing-control-of-the-oil-market/
Not that interesting. But the humor value made it worth my time to read. ;-)
The writer clearly hasn't much history or understanding of either, how Opec members cheat, or how oil markets are looking at global activities. The mention of 'Biden' tells you all you need to know about the quality of the writer.
Oil 'markets' have been in trouble for a long time. Firstly, oil is energy, and as such, underwrites money. Tracking energy in money, is like doing Boolean algebra in your head halfway through the third whisky; through a glass un-focus-edly.
Their problems - in a nutshell - are two: One, that when the oil runs low enough that finance founders, they are left with little energy, and a pile of useless bank digits (Norway is a classic; draining oil and buying shares with it, worth ? beyond the oil?). And 2; The energy required to obtain energy is on an exponential curve. Which 'costs' more. So their Capex proposal, only works at a 'price point', whereas society has a price-point for energy, above which it goes into recession (does less work, which needs less energy). Those two graphs are crossing; EROEI down, Capex (energy) cost up - hardly surprising; they're siamesed.
Back away perspective-wise, and the current debt bubble exceeds the energy available to do the work to produce the stuff to repay it. OPEC must know this...
Through a glass un-focused-edly. Admittedly been there myself too often. Best one on that theme though Ian Botham (Sir) lamenting the then English cricket selectors, something like - how can you see what’s going on through the bottom of a glass of gin and tonic, the slice of lemon gets in the way.
Our household went vegetarian 3 years ago and TBH I have never eaten better. My wife is an excellent cook and I have even picked up a few skills. The necessity of meat to constitute a satisfying meal is one of the great modern myths. The sheer variety of non-meat based meals and the interesting flavours and styles to enjoy are endless. Our ancestors ate meat rarely and most cultures culinary traditions are plant based Plus we either grow or buy seasonal vegetables which are largely inexpensive as are pulses and the spices to flavour and the herbs we grow to garnish them with.
Me too - went vegetarian a few years ago when I need to seriously economise while studying, and my partner gave up meat for animal welfare reasons. We have never bought fake meat or any of those vegan products, but rather just eat eggs, tofu, beans, etc. It helps if you tend towards asian or indian style meals. Sometimes my family say things like "you're not going to get enough protein" which I find ironic as I cycle 25km a day, have the lowest body fat % of my life, and do manual labour work over summer. I even spent 6 weeks working in a warehouse with a team of Indians who were all hindu and therefore vegetarian. Those guys did 8-10 hours of lifting straight, wile living off vege pizzas from Dominos and lentil curries.
Meat is wonderful thing, but certainly not fundamental to our lives.
Our ancestors ate meat rarely
Which ancestors? We have rather a lot. There is evidence of increasing consumption of plant foods from around 40,000 years ago when agriculture was starting to develop. Prior to that, throughout the entire Pleistocene, over two million years, human ancestors were hyper carnivores. This was enough time to complete the evolution from herbivore to hyper carnivore. Unfortunately 40,000 years of plant eating has only resulted in an epidemic of metabolic disorders as nature strives to eliminate from the gene pool those that cannot adapt.
The evolution of the human trophic level during the Pleistocene
We have a complex history where we went from herbivore to carnivore to omnivore so our teeth do have dual purposes. We didn't need to develop super canine style teeth as we developed tool use and cooking to deal with meat processing. Other carnivores don't have these advantages.
The most compelling evidence is our gut and stomach acidity that is very carnivore/scavenger like.
Researchers at Auckland University say that the widely-quoted level of how many Kiwis are vegetarian (20%) is almost certainly a wild overestimation.
The plant-based meat industry is in serious trouble. The following link is useful from a commercial POV.
- Plant-based meat investments peaked in 2021 to reach $5bn that year and plummeted since then (at least 60%+ from peak)
- No public plant-based company has been able to generate a single $ of profit
- The plant-based sector has witnessed a whopping 92%/ $18Bn+ shareholder value destruction. The picture is consistent across segments/ geographies.
- Key reasons for failure: while the first-wave of plant-based companies experienced high consumer interest/ trial rate, they have largely struggled due to their inability to create value for consumers, especially on taste (#1 barrier) and price (on avg,. 2-3x more expensive vs alternatives)
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fmcg-ceos-plant-based-dead-frederic-fern…
Never tried plant-based meat but I am a big convert to plant based yoghurt. I have a mild dairy intolerance, it’s not a big deal but it’s just better to do the plant-based yoghurt. It’s delicious, but a bit pricey
Coconut yoghurt (Raglan). Great stuff but expensive.
Lets be honest now. The number one improvement for our society and health system which would result in an almost universal benefit almost overnight would be to eliminate the modern western diet 95% of the population is consuming. A balanced diet of vegetables and occasional meat with minimal sugar intake. Get rid of car culture at the same time and get people utilising their physicality as nature designed would be the second. Within a year the health system would be able to focus on immediate care for those in need, mental health would surge forward along with productivity and general wellbeing.
Excellent post.
Car culture is actually getting worse given that EVs, scooters, e-bikes etc all represent an investment. And the narrative will be: I bought it and I'm saving petrol so I might as well use it. Whereas the old push bike at the back of the garage doesn't get a look in.
Promoting minimal or no meat eating is dangerous for human health. Most people need to eat more meat. A succulent steak is one of the most nutritious foods you can eat. It's a complete lie that vegetables are nutritious. Lacking in nutrition, toxic unless prepared properly, mostly water and largely indigestible is more like it!
Probably more toxic these days due to herbicides and the fact the soil they are grown in is dead and devoid of minerals and the only reason you even get any vegetables is due to fertilizer. Lets face it, most commercially grown veg tastes like shit, worst is the Broccoli and the Cauliflower, if you tasted it like it was supposed to be grown you wouldn't even recognise the taste, its like a totally different veg.
A lot of the plant based stuff was way overhyped too (from both an investment and consumer side). On the investment side its rise as an industry coincided with the massive stock/tech (particularly EVs) bubble. Founders were raising insane amounts of money on the promise of zero compromise solutions (ie 'same taste, but no waste'), using projections based on converting a large portion of meat consumers.
AI is going to be as big as coal was in its day, free intelligence , think about how much intelligence a call centre person needs.....
AI is going to be huge.... if it gets embedded in our supply chains its a risk if it... gets turned off or turns on us, or gets hacked at time of need
The older I get the more self sufficient I want to be, wind turbines and solar looking good
You cannot naked short BTC.... unlike gold where CBs simply sell futures on margin....
A lot of realizations happening this week. Only among a small minority and nobody really gives a rats about the relevance of gold price manipulation. And that is unfortunate that nobody really cares.
Bitcoin is boring though.
I have alt coins doing hundreds of percent a month. And I have put around 16 alts into uniswap pools (with ETH) which themselves generate up to 1000% APR which I compound or put into new LP farms. You get the idea.
My little baby hobby sized crypto portfolio is now a healthful seven figure portfolio. Which means I'm stressing again haha
Bitcoin is an actual asset though. Something you can buy and hold in a portfolio. You dont need to follow whats happening day to day. For 99% of people you shouldnt even consider doing that with anything else in crypto. I don't even consider them as the same sort of thing. If you are experienced and constantly folowing the market, and want to active day trade them, then go for it. As lonewolf says there's big money to be made for some, but in general it's closer to gambling then investing. Most people shoudn't try and day trade currencies either.
So I'm mostly in bitcoin and other big cap coins (solana, eth etc)
But LP pools are special. You literally get paid (decent amounts) for other people to gamble with your own coins.
Only problem is on ETH right now the transaction costs are horrific. But there are lots of other chains out there.
Bitcoin is an actual asset though. Something you can buy and hold in a portfolio. You dont need to follow whats happening day to day.
And a rare occasion for the little guy to front run the institutions. TBH, I think the ruling elite is pretty pissed that it's worked out like this.
I post occasionally since joining Interest and I delight in the commentators. I love the differing opinions and getting my daily fix. As we all go into the end of 2023, may you all share laughter and joy with those you love, excluding bitcoin. New Zealanders are all for fairness. So fair weather and fair times for all of us. I have confidence we will all pull together for I expect tough times are acoming. Thank you to the journo's and especially Roger Kerr.
Interesting conversation. Things aren’t looking too peachy for future generations in Australia. The likelihood of raising a family with a backyard looks to be 25% in Sydney
Those PISA scores look good to me, what am i missing?
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Students in New Zealand scored higher than the OECD average in mathematics, reading and science.
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More students in New Zealand, than on average across OECD countries, were top performers (Level 5 or 6) in at least one subject. At the same time a larger proportion of students than on average across OECD countries achieved a minimum level of proficiency (Level 2 or higher) in all three subjects.
Yes our absolute score went down, but so did everybodies scores. Our ranking didn't drop, we are still in the same position at the top. Reading and Science 7th out of 37, maths only 19th just above average.
I think they were only comparing Govt schools. The Australian results split them out by type of school, with Govt schools being the lowest performers. But with 41% of Australian children enrolled in independent or private schools, this is misleading. The results for Independent schools in Australia were 519 for Maths (cf 479 NZ), 538 for Science (cf 504 NZ), 526 for Reading (cf 501 NZ).
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