Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB raised all their fixed rates today, some higher than ANZ. More here. HSBC raised their too. And so did First Credit Union.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union raised term deposit rates. TSB raised their Websaver rate to 0.50% pa.
AUTUMN BLUES FOR RETAILERS
The measure of consumer confidence in the ANZ-Roy Morgan survey fell to record low in March for second month in a row. ANZ's chief economist Sharon Zollner makes the point that slumping consumer confidence does not bode well for retailers.
HEARTLAND THE HUNTER
Heartland Group is expanding in Australia through its A$154 mln acquisition of Brisbane-based livestock finance business StockCo. They have a loan book of AU$340 mln.
COMPLAINTS ABOUT BANKS LOWER, OR NOT
Correction: Complaints received by banks Banking Ombudsman were down -13% in Q4-2021, and this is despite the bite of the CCFA changes. ANZ, who has been generating an outsized share of complaints, was the focus of relatively fewer in this period. Complaints received by the Banking Ombudsman however were up +3% from the prior quarter.
FEWER BUT BETTER
In the year to February, 2022, just 21.3 mln sheep were processed at meatworks for food. That is the lowest annual total ever. The most ever was over 50 mln in 1985. But over the subsequent 35 years, the meat yield off those animals has risen substantially, and the prices are now regularly high as the industry shifts to high-end demand. It is a unique success story. Meanwhile, the number of beef cattle processed for food is rising. It was just under 4.7 mln in the year to February, and rising back towards the all-time record level of just over 4.8 mln set in 2015.
36 UNSECURED CREDITORS SEEKING $9 MLN FROM VIVIER
In their first report on Vivier and Company, liquidators Waterstone say they've received 36 unsecured creditor claims so far worth just over $9 million. They also say they've made demand for funds owed by a related company, and served liquidation proceedings on a related company. The liquidators also say it's unclear why the international private banking firm was registered in NZ given no investments appear to have been made here. For more on Vivier see here.
TRIAL RUN LANDS THE ROLE PERMANENTLY
Southern Cross Healthcare has announced that interim CEO Chris White will take up the role permanently, effective immediately.
JUST KEEPING AN EYE ON IT
We should note that hydro lake inflows are below average and storage is moderate. But wholesale electricity prices are on the rise again.
SHORTER & SHORTER
Today's release of banking system funding details (L3) shows that we are still holding our bank funds very short. Deposit funds (transaction accounts, savings accounts, plus term deposits) are 90% due within six months. It shifted up from around 87% in mid 2020. Prior to the pandemic the long run average was about 85%. Professional wholesale funders are much more tolerant. More than half of domestic bonds are due for terms longer than 6 months. For offshore bond holders it is 70% longer than six months. It is only the professional investors who keep funding maturities balanced.
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TOUGH IN AUSSIE
It is being reported that Kiwi investment bank Jarden's big expansion in Australia is winning business at an impressive rate. The problem is that it is also growing costs at a faster rate, and losses are piling up.
CHINA THE WEAK LINK
The release of March factory PMIs in the Asian region shows most expanding at moderate levels. That includes Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. But the private sector factory PMI for China came in lower than the official version (49.5), contracting at an index vale of 48.1 when a steady-state 50 was expected. It was their biggest fall in more than two years. It will only get worse for China as they stumble over their new pandemic spread that is high risk because they have key demographics with very low vaccination rates - and they have a second-class vaccine that is barely 50% effective. A widely locked-down China will have broad trade implications.
GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trading, gold is up +US$10 from this time yesterday at just over US$1938/oz.
EQUITIES MIXED WITH BIG UPS & DOWNS
On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Thursday session down -1.6% after falling away sharply at the end. Tokyo has opened lower, down -0.7% in Friday morning trade and heading for a -1.6% weekly retreat. Hong Kong has started down -1.6% in early trade which is taking the guts out of its weekly rise. Shanghai is down -0.2% in their opening trade, but are heading for a +1.9% weekly gain. The ASX200 is flat in early Friday afternoon trade but if this holds it will be up +1.3% for the week. But the NZX50 is down -0.4% in late trade and heading for a flat week.
SWAPS FIRM
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to be back up following bond signals. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 1.61%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is up +4 bps from this time yesterday, now at 2.83%. The China Govt 10yr is up +1 bp at 2.83%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now higher at 3.33% (up +7 bps) and now under the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 3.27% (down -4 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 2.37% and a +3 bps recovery since this time yesterday. And that's a +3 bps rise for the week. The UST 2-10 curve inversion threat remains but it hasn't happened yet.
NZ DOLLAR SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is now at 69.3 USc and down almost -½c from this time yesterday, although most of that happened last night. Against the Aussie we are a little softer at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are a tad higher at 62.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now still at 74.5 and -20 bps lower in a day. A week ago it was at 74.9, so only a small weekly dip.
BITCOIN LOWER
Bitcoin is down -4.5% today from this time yesterday to now be at US$45,183. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.8%.
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25 Comments
The lack of a SINGLE genetic sequence of earlier variants in ANY ANIMAL indicates the virus was probably adapting to human ace2 cells in lab animals.
Unlike SARs or MERS where there is clear evidence of virus mutation in the host animal before the jump to humans.
Old chinese did not trust the vax, and sino vax seems a lower efficiency,
they are going to have simillar death rate per mill people to hong kong perhaps higher, its going to be bad
Hong Kong SAR
Coronavirus Cases:
1,157,415 Deaths:7,825
only 7.5 mil people in hk , 1.4 bil in china
China assume same result so far 1.4mil deaths...
Xi is scared thats a lot of body bags
so far only 1 in 7 in hk have had covid.... could easy be 5-15mil deaths in china before xmas here
usa Cases 80,000,000 Deaths 979,000
Often mentioned that the first phase of the CCP’s regime from 1949, that upwards of 74mill of the then population of 540 mill were “disappeared.” So in ratio to that today, your prediction is but a hiccup especially as the truth of it will hardly ever be admitted.
The 'great leap forward' resulted in 45m dead (probably plus or take 50%) and mainly of the worst death: starvation. That was the most lethal single event of the 20th century. What troubles me most is that expert historians are still arguing whether it was a deliberate policy by Mao to liquidate the ex-landowning middle class who were a possible threat to him or just his civil service officials being too scared to report the failures of collective farming. What troubles me even more than 'most' is remembering about 55 years ago parading down Aberdeen's Union st as part of a student protest against the Vietnam war and shouting Mao's name in approval.
Foxglove, I think you should read this for a more balanced assessment of the facts:
Did Mao Really Kill Millions in the Great Leap Forward?
I have asked a few old Chinese people about what happened in China and none of them witnessed anything like what we have been told. Some had parents that were stripped of their wealth and denied medical care in their old age. Some had to live off kumara for a few years. Some knew people who committed suicide due to Red Guard harassment but no accounts that came anywhere near "extermination"..
Some of the younger ones were children when they were sent to the countryside and very much enjoyed their lives then. They say it was much better than children's lives today.
I suspect he was talking about the effects of the famine during the Great Leap Forward. Mistakes were made and there was some famine in remote areas. People did die but it wasn't deliberate "extermination". We have a lot of photo evidence of famine in Africa, India and Europe but we don't see much from China. Also life expectancy and the population grew rapidly under Mao. It doesn't make sense until you realise when they claim these millions were 'killed' they likely died of natural causes exacerbated by poor nutrition and over work. More infant mortality and more people dying in their late sixties rather than their eighties.
I was fortunate to learn quite early on about “modern” China. The exploitation by the West, the opium wars, theft of tea, the loss of HongKong, Tsingtao et al, the Boxer rebellion, and how the Japanese secured Tsingtao to foothold the launch of their horrific invasion.Funnily enough the interest stemmed from a British movie The Yangtze Incident, and wanting to learn both sides of the story. Unfortunately the EQs here burst a water pipe losing me most of my old library, otherwise I could dig out some passages. I travelled a lot on business in SE Asia, 70/80s and built up wonderful, virtually family, friendships with the Chinese community. I never got to mainland China although my children & grandchildren have. Underneath it all I have great respect & sympathy for the Chinese and not only from the nation enduring the above points, but the courage and fortitude of their combined armies, fighting Japan & the fighting retreat with US general Stilwell & British & US forces all the way west to India. And not to be overlooked, as in the formation of the USSR, the preceding regime, was nothing short of brutal. That is overlooked mostly by the West, but case in point is that Chiang Kai-Shek’s arrival in Formosa resulted in an absolute terror & death campaign.
Joseph Ball is a committed English communist who denies deaths were deliberately caused by Moa and by Stalin. It is possible he is right but check Wikipedia articles on 'The Great Leap Forward' and the section 'Methods of estimating the death toll and sources of error'. Details of who investigated and how. I found this paragraph persuasive: "" Chen was part of a large investigation by the System Reform Institute think tank (Tigaisuo) which "visited every province and examined internal Party documents and records." "" His estimate was 43 to 46 million died.
If their vaccine is poor then they will simply steal someone else's - they and maybe Taiwan have the technology, the speed and the secrecy to mass manufacture a stolen vaccine. Assuming Covid is rife in one part of China it will takes weeks or months to spread throughout the country. Final point is would they ever reveal true stats. It is always what they want you to know not what you need to know.
Take your point. Personally though I would much prefer a bowl of ox tail soup ( be that as is it may, from the nether regions) than a plate of bat casserole. Now that may well be a conflict between western and eastern cuisine, but let’s not forget around the same time as covid there were deaths recorded in China from eating marmots. Bubonic in fact, I recall. And then the Chinese national who arrived ex Wuhan and after it had been isolated domestically, at Washington DC airport with a poly bag of dead birds concealed in his luggage. Seems to me the Chinese population at times and places needs to resort to some pretty desperate measures to get a source of protein, and simultaneously general hygiene and food safety is totally absent.
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