Rodney Dickens

About

Rodney is the MD of Strategic Risk Analysis, which prepares and sells reports on housing, construction, monetary policy and exchange rates.
Email Rodney

Member for

14 years 10 months

Latest articles

Rodney Dickens argues calls for more OCR hikes are seriously misplaced

Quality analysis, unlike that done by the bank economists and Reserve Bank, points to a dire near-term outlook, questioning the case for more OCR hikes at this stage, says Rodney Dickens

20th Jul 22, 11:39am

by Rodney Dickens

166

Quality analysis, unlike that done by the bank economists and Reserve Bank, points to a dire near-term outlook, questioning the case for more OCR hikes at this stage, says Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens puts the boot into the RBNZ & bank economists

Independent economist Rodney Dickens gives the RBNZ both barrels, arguing its incompetence in assessing the outlook for house prices and the labour market is so bad it will be a fluke if it makes good OCR decisions

6th Aug 21, 7:02am

by Rodney Dickens

111

What the ANZ business survey will and won’t tell you

Independent economist Rodney Dickens points out how weakly the ANZ business confidence survey correlates to actual outcomes and points to 'huge' political bias as a key reason

16th Feb 21, 10:53am

by Rodney Dickens

Independent economist Rodney Dickens points out how weakly the ANZ business confidence survey correlates to actual outcomes and points to 'huge' political bias as a key reason

Kicked down the road

Economist Rodney Dickens sees sharply rising interest rates as vaccines allow a good recovery, but that will only accentuate problems arising from the massive rescue debt, likely triggering another more severe downturn

6th Feb 21, 2:12pm

by Rodney Dickens

Mortgage rate cuts haven't produced the expected rise in house sales

Economist Rodney Dickens wonders if bank lending criteria are the reason the housing market remains sluggish despite interest rate cuts

18th Dec 19, 2:07pm

by Rodney Dickens

Economist Rodney Dickens wonders if bank lending criteria are the reason the housing market remains sluggish despite interest rate cuts

The 1% Official Cash Rate isn’t as dramatic as it sounds

Rodney Dickens identifies the structural shift the RBNZ made during the GFC that means the effective OCR is much higher than the actual OCR, explaining why our retail interest rates are at current levels

11th Oct 19, 10:02am

by Rodney Dickens

Is manufacturing about to spit the dummy and does it matter?

Rodney Dickens crunches the numbers around the sharp drop in our factory PMI to see if it is signaling an imminent fall off in economic growth

3rd Sep 19, 10:00am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens crunches the numbers around the sharp drop in our factory PMI to see if it is signaling an imminent fall off in economic growth

'The Reserve Bank had to tell porkies to justify the 0.5% OCR cut'

Rodney Dickens says the Reserve Bank used dubious assertions to justify its aggressive rate cut. He says this is a misguided pro-growth experiment, much like the same one a decade ago

11th Aug 19, 3:41pm

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says the Reserve Bank used dubious assertions to justify its aggressive rate cut. He says this is a misguided pro-growth experiment, much like the same one a decade ago

The Reserve Bank overstates the importance of global interest rates

Rodney Dickens says understanding how our local long term interest rates are influenced has huge implications for how much they will move in response to RBNZ and Government pro-growth and pro-inflation policies

17th Jul 19, 9:17am

by Rodney Dickens

A strong case for fixing long-term debt

Rodney Dickens says current official forecasts are tainted by wishful thinking and take no account of policies that will boost wage inflation. OCR cuts and fiscal stimulus will boost growth so that the labour market will be tighter next year than now

10th Jul 19, 2:04pm

by Rodney Dickens

Is technology really a threat to employment?

Rodney Dickens notes it has been many years since the warnings of how jobs are under threat from machines first surfaced. He looks at the evidence of what has happened so far

28th Apr 19, 6:31am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens notes it has been many years since the warnings of how jobs are under threat from machines first surfaced. He looks at the evidence of what has happened so far

Time to expose the misleading ANZ business survey again

Rodney Dickens argues the ANZ business survey is a political toy for some respondents & ANZ uses misleading charts to try and make the survey look relevant

3rd Apr 19, 1:31pm

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens argues the ANZ business survey is a political toy for some respondents & ANZ uses misleading charts to try and make the survey look relevant

Channeling Reddell & Harrison

Rodney Dickens explores why our productivity growth is falling, with a special look at migration flows and the new bank capital requirements

24th Mar 19, 12:20pm

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens explores why our productivity growth is falling, with a special look at migration flows and the new bank capital requirements

Time to start taking one global threat more seriously

Rodney Dickens says the stirring of wage inflation worldwide signals official interest rates will need to be higher than many expect, which in turn will cause extreme turmoil in financial markets

27th Feb 19, 5:00am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says the stirring of wage inflation worldwide signals official interest rates will need to be higher than many expect, which in turn will cause extreme turmoil in financial markets

Improved, but warning remains

Rodney Dickens says there are still issues with new migration numbers even after some major revisions

16th Feb 19, 10:02am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says there are still issues with new migration numbers even after some major revisions

Is the 12/16 Rule better?

Rodney Dickens thinks Statistics NZ has botched the new migration numbers. He doubts huge numbers of people gave inaccurate data in the old system, but that is what the new system implies. Prepare for large revisions

26th Jan 19, 10:46am

by Rodney Dickens

A "honey" of a Christmas Raving

Rodney Dickens thinks he spots a bust about to unfold in the manuka honey market after a strong boom - caused but the usual suspect, fast rising new supply

15th Dec 18, 10:09am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens thinks he spots a bust about to unfold in the manuka honey market after a strong boom - caused but the usual suspect, fast rising new supply

"Thank goodness the Auckland housing market is 'strong' again"

Rodney Dickens challenges Barfoot's optimistic judgment saying the Auckland market is weaker than average, and that the demand-supply balance doesn't justify much if any upside in prices

13th Dec 18, 3:35pm

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens challenges Barfoot's optimistic judgment saying the Auckland market is weaker than average, and that the demand-supply balance doesn't justify much if any upside in prices

Why section prices are high in most major urban areas, and solutions

Rodney Dickens finds the council-controlled subdivision process, the RMA and increasing infrastructure costs directly contribute to high section prices, and these processes give cover for gouging by developers

2nd Dec 18, 12:42pm

by Rodney Dickens

The government should do the obvious to fix housing affordability

Rodney Dickens says the real problem inhibiting affordable housing is the cost of sections, and that is the one key thing the Government can do to solve the affordability problem

17th Nov 18, 2:43pm

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says the real problem inhibiting affordable housing is the cost of sections, and that is the one key thing the Government can do to solve the affordability problem

The next construction crisis?

Rodney Dickens says warning bells are starting to ring over the level of new tourism and hotel building. The risk is for a substantial overshoot

17th Oct 18, 10:25am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says warning bells are starting to ring over the level of new tourism and hotel building. The risk is for a substantial overshoot

Emerging opportunity to lock in cheaper longer-term debt

Rodney Dickens doesn't like the RBNZ policy settings, arguing they will lead to disaster. But he does see an opportunity for borrowers

28th Sep 18, 8:25am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens doesn't like the RBNZ policy settings, arguing they will lead to disaster. But he does see an opportunity for borrowers

How much has the Unitary Plan driven new Auckland dwelling consents?

Rodney Dickens criticises Auckland Council's economists, claiming their desire for higher density housing near rapid transport routes taints their analysis

28th Aug 18, 7:16am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens criticises Auckland Council's economists, claiming their desire for higher density housing near rapid transport routes taints their analysis

Ignoring migration trends taints policy conclusions

Rodney Dickens says be wary of MBIE's National Construction Pipeline reports, especially their estimates of future residential construction

5th Aug 18, 7:33am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens says be wary of MBIE's National Construction Pipeline reports, especially their estimates of future residential construction

Should you take any notice of what the economic forecasters are predicting?

Rodney Dickens checks how reliable economic forecasters' employment growth predictions are and how useful the leading indicators of employment are

5th Jul 18, 5:00am

by Rodney Dickens

Rodney Dickens checks how reliable economic forecasters' employment growth predictions are and how useful the leading indicators of employment are