This is an extract from the December 2024 Red Meat Report by Beef+La,b NZ and the Meat Industry Association.
A report by B+LNZ this month confirmed earlier estimates for fewer lambs in spring 2024 compared to last year due to a declining ewe flock, and a moderate decrease in ewe lambing percentage.
The B+LNZ 2024 Lamb Crop Report indicated a decrease in lambs tailed/docked by 1.1 million head, or 5.2%, compared to 2023, bringing the total lamb crop to an estimated 19.2 million.
The decline in lamb crop is slightly greater than what B+LNZ originally forecasted in the June Stock Number Survey. There were better lambing rates than expected in the North Island, but worse lambing rates in the South Island. During lambing, wet weather and snowstorms in Southern South Island impacted lamb survival, but so far this seems to have been by less than originally feared.
A lower lamb crop means that export lamb numbers are forecast to decrease 6.5% across the whole season. Australian lamb production is expected to be lower too which tightens global supply and may lead to stronger prices in international markets.
Processing companies are closely monitoring livestock numbers and capacity, and the lamb crop report indicates potential significant shortfalls in supply in the South Island in the lead up to Christmas.
Overall lamb export processing is forecast to be down 11% in the three months to Christmas but there are significant differences between the islands.
In the South Island, export lamb processing for the first quarter of the season is expected to be down 22%, but up 2.4% in the North Island.
Adult sheep exports are also forecast to be 10.9% lower than last year across the entire season.
Despite these challenges, there are signs of cautious optimism for the sheep and beef sector.
The North Island has had excellent lambing conditions and lambs have been growing well.
Farmers in the South Island did a fantastic job of minimising potential lamb losses in the face of prolonged cold, wet weather during lambing in Southern South Island and snowstorms in other regions.
Early-season farmgate prices for sheepmeat have been higher than last spring and cattle prices remain strong. This coupled with the recent reductions in interest rates has alleviated some financial pressure.
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