The markets for venison are in turmoil ending a long run of rising demand and rising prices. The reversal has been hard and fast and it will take a long time for these markets to recover

While we are still under some constraints operating under level 2 a feeling of normality has returned, at least to those of us that don’t frequent the bars on a regular basis.

Saleyards are now operating and prices at the better end of quality are looking reasonable although ewe prices appear to be still suffering from the build-up of animals to be processed at the works.

For the mature steer prices based on limited numbers coming through per kg prices appear to be around -10c down on what could be expected before the lockdown of saleyards and again on limited numbers, store lambs appear to be slightly up.

The biggest concern will be for those selling the tail end lambs which are floating around the $25-$35-dollar mark.

Schedules this week were stable with rises in lamb matched by falls in the South Island other classes had small lifts. The North Island had small lifts for most grades also. As has been the trend in recent months venison proved the exception with yet more coming off the schedule. The New Zealand average of monitored sites is now at $525 per kg for stag. We have to go back to 2007 to find similar prices. In the latest Stagline a useful compilation of the state of the markets is done by the various processors. The key problem is simple, venison is largely a restaurant food and large numbers in the northern hemisphere have been closed over the pandemic and even those open have not been well patronised. Alliance mentions that there are cautious signs of food service reopening although they say “it’s clear current price re-sets for venison are necessary to re-connect consumers with the product”. So, no great hopes for a price recovery for a while yet.

Duncan NZ adopts a similar view although also says they have been refocusing their sale energies on retail and “domestic home delivery”. On the positive side they view the price collapse as a “short-term situation” and advise producers against making too many changes until there is a clearer view on what the ‘new-normal’ looks like.

First Light compare the current situation to “a storm at sea the fishermen stay home and mend their nets. Over the past eight weeks, our industry, which relies heavily on restaurant sales, has faced a major storm.” They also are working on changing sales to more online deliveries and using the opportunity of cheaper meat to try and drag in new customers by showing the perceived value of new products.

Silver Fern Farms as with the others sees some improvements in the near outlook with restaurants opening coinciding with what would normally be the peak game meat demand period in the EU. However, regardless of the state of the food service sector, customers are going to have a lot less disposable cash and venison is unlikely to hit any great hights for some time to come.

China, which has had a major influence in helping to maintain other meats prices has not been much help to date regarding venison. This is due to venison being caught up in the ban on ‘wild meats’ in China due to the origins of the Corvid-19 pandemic possibly coming out of ‘wild meat’ in the Wuhan ‘wet market’. Even though exporters have now managed to get a re-classification for venison to farmed meat they are wary about the ‘message’ travelling through China and while the borders may be open other areas within China may not be up to date with the reclassification and put the meat into quarantine or such like. This issue does however sound as though it is getting rectified.

One of the issues that occurred before the pandemic when venison was already heading dramatically in the wrong direction was the price in 2018 had hit record prices and become over heated. The high prices driven largely by the pet food market switched many buyers off venison to other (cheaper) alternatives. Arguably, Covid-19 aside, as nothing could really prepare for this, taking a more sustainable pricing regime may have been a better long-term strategy. However, walking away from the big money is easier said than done. Whether the reopening of China which would have to be classified as a ‘developing market’ prior to Corvid-19 will be able to help lift prices appreciably is uncertain however, it may at least stop the rot from going further.

Australian farmers are concerned that the cooling in relations between China and Australia is going to affect their back pockets. In what appears to be a thinly disguised push back on the Australian’s overt support for the USA’s call for an enquiry into the source of the Covid-19 virus in China. China is proposing to slap an 80% tariff on Australian barley (used for beer making and stock feed in China). On the back of this prices in Australia have already fallen by 20-30%. China says the tariffs are due to Australia; a)  dumping of surplus wheat into China (which Australia hotly deny) and b) through barley growers being subsidised by the Australian government which paid farmers to upgrade water infrastructure in return for giving up water rights. Again, hotly denied by the Australian government which said that most of Australia’s barley is grown in West Australia, 1000’s of kilometres away.

China has also suspended meat imports from four Australian meat abattoirs which appear to be linked to the same governmental tiff.

New Zealand’s PM is taking a very circumspect approach to her wording about any calls for an inquiry and is working largely through the WHO with most other countries. The Australian support of the USA have to be questionable as being sensible. Given that Trump is trying to use the China debate (rights and wrongs aside) to garner support going into the elections and deflect attention away from his own administrations poor performance in protecting the USA from the pandemic. Australia would have been far wiser to have taken a more diplomatic approach.