I did something today I never thought I’d be doing and what I’m not particularly proud of, stockpiled.
No not toilet paper, in fact about everything else but. ‘We’ are probably heading into one of the most uncertain periods since WW2, at least in my view, and trying to cover some of the ‘all gone wrong’ options seems imminently sensible.
Unfortunately, the Government’s response seems lacklustre and all I can hope is that a lot more action and creative thinking is going on behind the scenes than what we are seeing out front. The approach of “don’t panic and carry-on” was an approach that Italy, Japan and the US have adopted and they are now all in deep ‘do-dos’ and their collective inaction is now likely to negatively impact upon the rest of the globe.
My thinking is that we have to plan for when we have mass outbreaks in New Zealand, not if, and the possibility that someone in our household gets infected. So, supplies are in for a month or so (especially coffee) plus remedies to minimise the symptoms. My thinking has also extended to the farm. Like many we are suffering the effects of the dry summer and have been keeping lambs ticking over on baleage waiting for some decent rainfall to finish them and were prepared to wait until the early winter when prices begin to lift ( I hoped). We have sold a reasonable percentage up to this point so do have some slack in the system, but my thinking has gone to being considerably more risk averse.
Apart from the risk that the markets don’t pick up in a timely fashion, there is the concern that when covid-19 does hit places like freezing works, saleyards etc. are under risk of having staff illness or regulations shutting them down. Winter looming, baleage disappearing and prices crap if indeed stock can be sold. So, while I’m not adopting a dumping policy, I certainly have lowered my price expectations and are prepared to adopt the bird-in-the-hand approach and reduce exposure to what ever is ahead, good or bad.
Another serious concern I have is for the two staff members we employ, one on-farm (mostly) and one in our cheese and gelato shop. The shop is in Riverside Market central Christchurch which has anything from 8,000 to 20,000 people a day coming through. A large percentage of these are tourists, some from cruise ships. Again, the risk of areas of congregation being shut down is real plus the dramatic drop off of tourist visitors. Much of the farm's work involves preparing products to go to the shop so their fortunes are inextricably linked. So far nothing I have heard coming from the Government will do anything to provide protection for the farm or the shop, so agriculture and tourism New Zealand’s two largest export sectors. The internal economy if people are ‘generous’ in their consumer spending may still function to a lesser degree to what we currently see but it is going to be a ‘lame duck’ economy at best.
Government appears to be in a quandary of trying to strike a balance between maintaining a viable economy and maintaining public health. From where I stand, they are at serious risk of dropping the ball on both fronts. Being told from Government that they are planning, and more will be revealed next week or the week after and fast-tracking access to WINZ and some exposed industries will be targeted, to me, just doesn’t cut it. I accept that the conventional levers government can pull are limited, i.e. OCR be it through the Reserve Bank. Interest rates are already at record lows, I can only assume the RBNZ is trying to keep its powder dry for when the heat really comes on, but by then it is too late. New Zealand is still fortunate in its status of being relatively free of the virus (2,000 New Zealanders are self-isolating so let’s not kid ourselves that we are totally free).
What we do know from the overseas examples is that those countries that take strong ‘protective’ action as soon as they are able do appear to be able to control the virus; China, Singapore and South Korea being examples. They have the advantage of ranging from having moderate to very authoritarian governments and compliant populations. They also had the disadvantage of having a lot less warning than we have had. Given we have known since mid-January that the coronavirus was likely to be very disruptive, there still seems to be a lack of leadership being shown. The USA adopted what has been called a “don’t test don’t talk” policy with Trump in denial. We can’t afford to follow this, almost every state in the US now has reported cases and the head count is predicted to go exponential. They have the added issues of a dysfunctional health policy and poor welfare support.
On the more positive side China does appear to be getting control of their outbreaks and their economy is beginning to build-up. They are also reporting some good success with treating those infected with new drugs. Our dairy industry with more automated systems and less staff required in the processing sector may be able to negotiate their way through this period of uncertainty. The meat industry however, is likely to have more challenges to get benefit from this. Although, the chillers at processing sites in New Zealand are reported to be full and so once logistics begin moving this may flow down the ‘chain’ to the farm so long as animals can be processed. Schedules this week have had a return to some sort of normality with only venison taking the major hit and most other unchanged.
95 Comments
You do realise we have no untraced or uncontained transmission inside NZ yet right, and the 4th day in a row with no new detections? You are whining about bolting the door after the horse has bolted.. but you're suggesting bolting and padlocking the door before the horse is even in the stall.
Get over yourself Prag. Not everyone has to agree with how you see it.
Let people have their vent and then get on with it without getting in their grill.
A couple of days ago you were haveing a crack at me and then the next day an artical on here came out with fairly much what I had been saying and everyone else jumped in agreeing... You were no where to be seen.
How I see it? Facts is facts mate, but you continue on in your little post truth world.
I don't know what story you are on about, but perhaps I was busy. Some days are busier than others, had customer in the factory testing out their new machines before we install them next week.
Whining? Lol not really, to be honest I'm one of the people who don't take this virus too seriously. Time will tell if I'm right about that or not.
"we have no untraced or uncontained transmission inside NZ yet" - That's a claim with no evidence to back it up. How many people in NZ have been tested so far?
Several hundred. So far self-isolation seems to be working well, but the country list on the travel ban probably needs to be expanded.
The point being you don't discharge the fire extinguisher until you find something burning.. otherwise you end up with an empty fire extinguisher when you actually need one. Ordering NZ into lockdown now, when there is no reason for it would be counterproductive.
We seem to be on the same side of the argument. To be clear, my original comment was aimed at the people who are merrily going to concerts, restaurants, festivals you name it. If I was over 50, I would seriously consider spending as little time in crowded spaces as possible.
What I don't agree with is that there's only a few isolated cases in NZ at the moment. With just a few hundred people having been tested, how can you be so sure about that?
The virus was first detected in China in November I think. How many people have traveled to NZ from China since then? Must be in the ballpark of 10,000 or so. Add the number of people who shared a flight with people who have been to China in the most critical months (Jan-Feb), and the people who sat in the same seats etc... and you're talking about 50,000 or even more. Have we tested all of them?
No, we haven't tested them all.. but we also don't have hospitals flooded in people with serious respiratory illnesses which we would have by now if we had even 3 or 4 carriers of the disease that had landed in the country a month ago and gone on their merry way infecting those around them. I'm quite sure there must have been more than the 3 arrivals with Covid-19, but the self-isolation appears to be working, they've stayed home, and naturally beaten the illness without spreading it,possibly for most of them without even noticing they had it. At least so far. Sooner or later it will fail, and then we need to react swiftly.
I am more optimistic that our govt will wake up and institute strong social isolation measures soon giving unfolding calamity in Europe that will give them clearer picture of where we are headed.
Our govt should be telling everyone they need to prepare for 2-4weeks at home now, perhaps even give a start date of a week or two, because it is inevitable in next month. Wuhan has been locked down for nearly 2 months because they started late. Rest of china much less.
And Soymond does have a three balls?, intelligent lawyers & troops that goes with it - what would you do? for those non-intelligent Kiwis, that all have balls mostly retracted inside because of them we ended up like this? - almost split in the middle their voting voices, what would you do with them? - I knew the answer if it's during WWII under German sole ruling party. Let's sober up a bit, .. then go lie down take a rest again.
She's so so wrong. NZ is not special, we are in just the same boat as everywhere else, we will have building community spread occurring just like all the European nations, and without national quarantining we are on track to be like Italy in a month.
Wuflu kills 50x as many as flu, until the hospital system is overwhelmed (like Italy) when it goes up to 100's of times as many.
Like all the countries that have suddenly burst into big outbreaks NZ has had very restricted testing - lots of anecdotal reports of people who had reason to be suspicious they were infected being denied testing, and border testing that has been so lax it may have well been non-existent. We have a huge chinese population too. I hope you are right, but you are most likely wrong.
I'm all for more testing, and the govt doubled its testing capability recently (yesterday or the day before), but until there is a solid reason to start restricting movement inside NZ it is counterproductive to do so. We could have no community transmission for a month or more, NZers aren't going to take well to being confined to quarters for no apparent reason, and eventually they will revolt and ignore the instructions.
Indeed, Guy, hospo, mass tourism (cruises, busloads), discretionary-spend-biassed-retail, discretionary travel, mass gatherings (events, conferences, sports) etc etc are all gonna be hit hard. The four core essentials (food, shelter, transport, security) will carry on if only on a minimal basis. But as for the authorities' responses, it's like the 2nd Amendment mantra - when seconds count, the police are only minutes away....
Meanwhile, central banks are trying to reinstate confidence in the economy. Most central banks seem to be doing their job (pumping up asset prices) quite well.
Reserve Bank deputy governor Guy Debelle says.. Australia will bounce back quickly once the virus is contained. Link
The economy will bounce back to its usual sorry state of being supported by soaring house prices, dirt exports and people imports.
When one compared to the govt reaction to m bovis, their response to coronovirus is non existent. M bovis testing of dairy milk is being carried out every month in NZ. Animals whether they have the disease or not, but simply because of being in the same herd are killed (I'm not suggesting this as a covid-19 response) and 3years on they are still finding new outbreaks. M bovis is neither a trade threat, nor a threat to human health. Coronovirus on the other hand has massive potential to affect NZ economically and cause potential loss of life.
I think you hit the nail on the head with the stockpiling.
It is not you getting the Virus that is the problem. It is if everything else is shut.
As always in NZ, people should always have some sort of emergency kit and supplies. At least in this case people do appear to be buying before the fact, unlike the earthquakes where many bought after the event.
Precisely.
If there's no one to serve you at the checkout or open the front doors, then it doesn't matter if the shelves are stocked or not - until it gets desperate and citizens take the remaining stock for themselves.
I just passed Drake Personnel this morning, and they have large signs on the doors "Don' come in if you've been to ( a list of countries) in the last 2 weeks as we won't be able to place you"
It will be fine. Govt will ensure grocery deliveries continue - and can easily be scaled up. A very safe way to distribute goods with minimal human interation. Even so good to get a few weeks supply of basic in the house before it happens - if everybody does so over next week or two then there will be much less trouble/concern after quarantine starts.
Man.. suggest to self isolated comrade, if needed call the hotline - before it's too late. You need the mask, means to protect you from spreading it. If you're young, do bed rest at home, plenty of fluids, vitC, ginger drink, turmeric, sweet ketchup & Lime. Make sure not to visit/touch the elderly, for elderly relative just do skype or facetime for now. If you are above 60 then suggest to report to nearest hospital, before the rest of those ICU/negative pressure beds being taken all by rest home residents. Winter is coming, if it hits our elderly? rest assure it will be a quick spread... now the bugs just silently being spread across the surfaces that easy to touch, it wait for the Winter concert. Let's hope not get into that - but looking under the scope seems this bug get excited on cold temp. Anyone can tell me how many ICU beds combined nationwide (all DHBs, private hospitals, rest home hospital wings etc.) - would be interested with the number vs. potential outbreak.
None of out elected politico's fill me with confidence, but National are more ideologically-hamstrung and thus probably less relevant. And less to be trusted by ordinary folk; they act on behalf of an elite, often an absent one.
Technocrats? Nope. Few will have the skill-sets, fewer the strategic long-game short-decisive-move vision.
Look to the cohort who were/are Transition Town types, look to the Food Networks, look to the guerilla gardener types, look to the preppers who have realised that it needs community to survive - that you can't do it alone. That lot at least have thought about this kind of scenario.
I'm self-sufficient in energy, water and mostly in food (could eke 3-6 months of gradually-reducing variety) but I'd struggle to go more than 3 months, really. And I'm at the pointy end of resilience. Heaven help the flat-screen, renter, casual income urbanite.
There is a beneficial side effect from the shutting down of non- essential activities. Carbon emissions will fall dramatically. It could be argued that the shut-down state of affairs could represent the new normal of a zero carbon world, but would the people accept it? I'd wager that not all the self isolaters will manage to stay at home for a fortnight so how would they cope with that lifestyle indefinitely?
People breaking quarantine in Russia now get a 5 year prison sentence and a video camera on their door to monitor them. In Israel everybody on a inbound flight from anywhere must quarantine for two weeks. These countries realize what is needed to have a chance at beating it.
Slight distortion of the truth there. they don't get a camera on their door, the russian govt is using its urban camera network and facial recognition to check if people are complying with self-quarantine instructions. And they are threatening imprisonment, nobody has been sentenced yet.
Persoanlly i don't want to live in a society where the govt monitors your movements 24/7. Facial recognition should not be allowed to be used on the public by the state without good cause.
A different perspective. Do little other than self isolation and let it run its course, some international travel restrictions, not much more than what is being done now. Even with that the health system won't cope with +55 age group having the highest mortality. Some economic impact. Italy scenario and shutdown the country and live with the economic impact. Either way has an economic impact and to take the least economical impact is best left to a small team , max 5 people with statistical knowledge preferably with a medical bias, an economist and a medical person expert in pan/epidemics and a financial number cruncher person, to counter an economists viewpoint.
Check out the accommodation photos for the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic That's all that is needed for mass hospitalisation, https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/20/Emergency_hospital_… Another alternative large tents. At least bed and tent manufacturers will make a killing
Yeah, that's another factor that hardly anyone is discussing and certainly not officials! There is no reason to assume that a novel flu strain in a huge, globalised population is just going to go round once and then die out. There is no reason to assume it won't mutate. It could have mutated already. There were 3 waves of Spanish flu. Imagine if there are 3 waves of Covid-19 and the next one has mutated and more deadly than the initial strain. It's perfectly possible.
Interesting to see the sentiment in the comments section. A few scared boomers now want to lock down everything and everyone to stop a disease that mostly kills sick elderly people... Stop everything, regardless of its cost. Why are you so ready to cripple the economy now?
Quite a contrast compared to your reaction to climate change. Oh wait, the most serious effects of that will only happen after you're dead anyway, so who cares, right?
Paashaas, why insult me instead of posting actual stats?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demograph…
I hope your brain is in better shape than your comment led me to believe.
What a mud comment
we let this thing go rampant , hospitals get overloaded and the young and healthy start dying of otherwise treatable ailments and accidents. No ambulances available to go to car accidents etc.etc.etc.
Im not to sure why people are so obsessed with blaming boomers for everything.
We should be as proactive as possible now, the economy is going to get smashed either way, might as well take the hit up front, avoid the carnage, social and psychological impacts for as long as possible. If we can contain it reasonably well till the vaccine becomes available we will be able to pick up where we left off, rather than a post apocalyptic waste land
Can you read?
Where in my comment was I advocating against taking action?
Actually, I just wanted to point out that *taking action to stop things from getting really out of control* in this case trumps the will to keep the economy from grinding to a halt. In the case of climate change (global warming), which has an ever larger effect because it affects most life on Earth, *taking action to stop things from getting really out of control* wasn't more important than sticking to business as usual.
But obviously the word boomer blinded your vision, because you clearly didn't think about the meaning of the comment you just replied to.
All good, I tend to overreact too, especially when it's a topic I'm emotional about. Actually this is a "great" opportunity for the older generation to realise what the younger generation feels when our concerns about growing inequality and climate change are dismissed.
The pandemic and climate change (I still prefer the term global warming) have a lot in common. Interesting to see the exact same reactions from people in power (ignoring scientific consensus, acting too late or not acting at all, not willing to admit there's a problem until people are literally dying).
Wrong.
The trajectory of the human enterprise has a 100% chance of wiping us all out, if we don't change course. And even then, we're so grossly overshot that it probably will anyway. Climate alteration is only courtesy of the exhaust gases from out masssive fossil energy draw-down. Which is massively working to draw down everything else.
A virus is the least of our problems.
Your 'threat' is bloody funny because this is precisely why I didn't buy a house in AKL in the past 2 years, despite having enough cash for a 20% deposit. I was expecting a crash soon and didn't want to get into the situation you just described.
So.... let's have a good laugh now shall we?
This is not Ebola. This is a novel flu strain which we know almost diddly squat about. We don't even know yet, how it is transmitted, where it came from, no patient zero, let alone whether it will mutate or how often it might mutate and if that mutation will make it more contagious or more deadly.
We have NO HERD IMMUNITY currently to this virus. We have no vaccine. People who have recovered from the virus have no increased immunity and apparently some people have had the virus twice. There is no reason at all to assume this virus won't spread the planet in waves. We have vulnerable older populations, we have vulnerable populations with diabetes, heart disease, fatty liver etc. We are a highly mobile and globalised species. We do not have capacity in our health care system to give everyone oxygen and treatment if we have a pandemic in NZ.
The effect on the economy is baked in. It's going to happen now regardless. What we need to focus on is protecting our vulnerable populations. Self isolate. Wash hands. Do extra cleaning of high touch areas. It's not even that hard to do.
If you have family, friends or neighbours in any of the high risk categories, please just check that they have some supplies of food, paracetamol and keep lines of communication open. There isn't any need to panic, it's much more sensible that we just pull together and look out for each other, in case, it does explode here.
If it doesn't, no harm no foul, we all just have some extra food supplies and showed our elderly and at risk that we care. If it does and we didn't take action? Do you want that on your conscience?
I've read multiple pieces from medical workers in heavily affected areas that is saying that what is needed is more panic! panic doesn't kill, complacency does. People are way too relaxed about the impending catastrophe. The sooner we institute major quarantining measures to reduce medical overload the better.
Good article Guy. I too have kept dropping stock numbers keeping in mind that the local meat processor may have to shut down for a period of time in the months to come. Maybe stock auctions will be postponed for a while.
Having spare water retic gear on hand, animal health bits and bobs.
I reckon the government should make writing down our capital purchases quicker. It will help get businesses up and running quicker coming out of this. Depreciation rates in NZ are very low, its quite crippling.
Hi Aj, we have had 3 good falls of rain now in March. It was pretty spotty and I think we were lucky to get that. But it will take a month to get a wedge of feed ahead. The last bunch of cattle off to the works looked like they had dropped condition substantially in the week between weighing and heading out the gate. And now with rain everything will definately lose condition while the pasture (if you can call it that) turns to mush. I have been offered several lots of very cheap cattle but at this stage I am holding out.
My biggest worry now I suppose should be facial excema so cold nights would be welcome but its still pretty muggy at night. Its weird I have to keep remembering its still early in March. We have had such a warm 4 months it feels like we should be late April by now. So the days should be long enough to kick along some tucker. How was Fielding last week?
Fielding was ok, still of lots of stock going Sth. Got a small pen of good lambs for $54. I'm starting to really get worried, MPI have put a third of farms in area under movement control after massively cocking upna Tb outbreak, they cannot move stock for 60 days.
This is a record breaker and dry soils cool fast. Im thinking im going to be in trouble, my hills have had no stock on since the end of Dec and are barren except for shed loads of crickets. My pasture has really suffered, went and purchased a direct drill ( oan old one) and intend to oversow a lot of the farm. Going to start sowing now as I cannot afford to miss a the rain this late in the season, boy oh boy does a week make a difference in March/ April.
Look at what the government says today; Jacinda Ardern said they'd been very responsive to the advice they'd received from scientists and experts.
"When they say move, we move."
So, no "expert" is advising travel bans on people coming to NZ from Italy- just isolate yourself!
In spite of the disaster unfolding in Italy, the NZ Herald reports today that "anyone arriving to (sic) NZ from any part of Italy will have to self-isolate for 14 days, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced."
"Reactive" instead of "Proactive". That's our government! And time will tell whether they are listening to the right people.
I despair. I bet their experts are screaming at them to quarantine, but the weak-headed politicians in the loop are dithering and delaying because they are so frightened of vigor and making uncool big calls. Coalition are taking way too long to get their head around the scale of this snowballing disaster. They are running weeks late on every measure, and their procrastination is about to blow up in all of our faces and kill a whole lot of kiwis.
https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-pandemic-response-cities
"When a flu outbreak at a nearby military barracks first spread into the St. Louis civilian population, Starkloff wasted no time closing the schools, shuttering movie theaters and pool halls, and banning all public gatherings. There was pushback from business owners, but Starkloff and the mayor held their ground. When infections swelled as expected, thousands of sick residents were treated at home by a network of volunteer nurses.
Dehner says that because of these precautions, St. Louis public health officials were able to “flatten the curve” and keep the flu epidemic from exploding overnight as it did in Philadelphia."
Glad to help 4th Estate. When you are lining up down the street and around the corner, keeping a metre distant from the next coughing shopper to get your broccoli and beans you will be most greatful to the likes of myself and others who arent extending those lines.
The WHO visit to China spent one day in Wuhan, and only visited and talked to people/places that they were escorted to by the CCP. Example: part of the evidence to support a decline was empty beds in the quarantine hospital they visited. Hello? And ANyone who believes that the virus will respect the borders of Hubei province will believe anything. Check this out....what's really going on in China. Massive censorship of stories all for the almighty dollar. It's just a coverup. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_a7HaWqFh24 Investigative journalism by Simone Gao
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