The number of people receiving residence visas to stay in New Zealand appears to be settling at just over 4000 a month.
The latest migration figures from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment show 25,293 residence visas were approved in the first half of this year.
That's an average of 4216 a month.
In the first six months of 2024 the number of residence visas approved each month stayed within a fairly narrow band of between 4038 and 4497, suggesting current residence approvals are fairly consistent.
That follows a period of extreme volatility, with more than 10,000 a month being approved in the 18 months from the beginning of 2022 to mid-2023 as a result of the previous Labour Government's 2021 Resident Visa Scheme, which fast-tracked residence visa approvals for people already in the country on work visas.
Although the current rate of residence approvals has dropped back significantly form that level, it is still higher than pre-Covid levels by around a third, when about 3000 residence visa approvals a month was the norm.
Of the 25,293 residence visas issued in the first half of this year, 13,560 (54%) were to principal applicants and 11,739 were to secondary applicants such as other family members.
The age breakdown provides a broad indication on the likely demands the new residents will have for services such as health and education.
Nearly a third (30%) of the new residents were aged 0-19 years, meaning they would either be very young children or of school age or school leavers possibly starting tertiary studies
The older age groups are also well represented with just under 3000 (12%) being aged 50 years or above, a group likely to have higher demands for health services.
The breakdowns by age and applicant types over the first half of this year are shown in the charts below.
•You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.
32 Comments
What did the previous government do to make sure our public system was ready for additional demand from hundreds of thousands of new users? Sweet f-all.
So, let's not pretend all the deep cracks appearing in our underfunded healthcare, education, transport and local infrastructure has nothing to do with cramming more low-wage workers into the country.
Doesn't take a PhD in economics to understand that bringing cheap labour from poorer countries by the planeloads is going to turn this place into a third-world country as well.
Of all the failings of the previous government, letting so many additional people settle permanently in NZ as a means of kowtowing to the business lobby's crack addict-esque need for cheap labour and artificial demand stimulus of dubious real value - when you consider 'per capita' economic performance (with an added side of 'be kind' guilt assuaging) - has to be one of the cruelest strokes ever pulled against the working class the Labour party supposedly represents. Our own version of Tony Blair/New Labour in the UK punishing the traditional working class with mass immigration to 'rub their noses' in it.
Other governments have been complicit in this, but considering the previous government was in a position to easily do what it wanted it could have pulled a middle finger to the business lobby and done good by the country for once.
Remind me again who are the people most likely to face ill consequences from all that extra demand placed on public services, housing etc? The wealthy can insulate to a decent extent (pay for health insurance, pay for private schooling for the kids, live in more convenient locations where traffic is less of a concern, and so on).
Nothing wrong with immigration if it's genuinely skilled (and those skills aren't something we can acquire from re-training existing Kiwis in a sufficiently short timeline, e.g. we can't conjure up brain surgeons overnight) but you'd have to be wilfully ignorant to believe that is what went on.
Worse. Once those 210,000 temporary workers got permanent residency they were no longer obligated to work in the job they were brought here to do. They could go compete with Kiwis for the better jobs, move to the cities, or go on welfare. So they all needed to be replaced by bringing in even more unskilled workers from the third world to do the jobs that these new residents have left.
Have seen a few of wingdings comments on here. An expert in everything, never makes mistakes, any problems other people face never happen to him. A huge risk taker that's always rewarded and never loses.
Full of luck or full of s##t who knows? A chronic "one upper" by the sounds of it.
Unfortunately, the Labour policy of not being able to evict tenants has meant that tenants now have no idea of what it means to be a "good tenant". They think they don't have to clean the house, weed the garden, mow the lawns, clean the appliances. They can be complete pigs in the house and there was nothing the landlord could do about it. They didnt have to pay the rent on time, or in full. They could terrorise their neighbours. So they are all going to get a rude shock come next year when "no cause" (there is ALWAYS a cause) evictions are restored.
Hate to break it to you, but NZers don't breed at enough for even replacement of existing population. Because of economic conditions (expensive housing and misguided tax system) people can't afford kids here. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=NZ
Unless you are on welfare, in which case having two or more kids puts you in the top half of income earners in the country. And you get a free "warm and dry" million dollar house from Kainga Ora as well. That's why there has been an absolute explosion in the number of people on the single parents benefit over the last 6 years.
Over the last four years the number of people on single parent benefit has gone from 2% to 2.4% of the population. Definitely increasing, but not sure I would call it an explosion.
https://www.msd.govt.nz/documents/about-msd-and-our-work/publications-r…
I don't think you're breaking anything to anyone. Everyone is well aware of the fertility rates in NZ which is why the conversation is focused on the levels and not immigration itself. The population has grown by about 15% in the last decade so there's obviously more to it than simply combating low fertility rates. The grey area for me is how much of the immigration is needed to replace retiring boomers in the work force and how much is simply to prop up a struggling economy.
I'm not sure that the cost is the issue. I have a number of child bearing age women at my work and they just aren't interested in having kids as it will impact their lifestyle too much. So the one child of the past that they may have had, has recently become none.
I read an interesting article recently, that said that women who have children will have as many as women did in the past, but those who dont have any has grown significantly as a percentage.
Agreed.
We need a reset on immigration, splitting into two 'camps'.
- People we need (i.e. genuinely skilled immigrants in critical areas such as healthcare or specialist engineering where we cannot train existing Kiwis in a sufficiently short timeframe) Considering the numbers are relatively low, make the pathway for these people as easy as possible.
- Everybody else (the takeaway chefs, baristas, uber drivers etc) if you want to settle here 'for a better life' - which is not something the existing population of NZ owes you - we should calculate the expected cost in terms of public services and charge that as an additional levy on their wages. In this camp we should also prohibit family reunification of elderly relatives who will be a further pressure on our basket case infrastructure and services.
The problem is how we decide on the truly critical skill sets. E.g. I've seen business owners arguing baristas are critical (protip - if your cafe can't operate without imported discount labour it's probably not a viable business). We need some kind of independent body that is free from any business lobby and/or rentier influence deciding the critical skill sets ... and I'm a business owner myself.
The problem is how we decide on the truly critical skill sets.
Simple, set a price eg 50k, for a 12mth visa for your category 2. If it's critical you'd pay, if 50k makes or breaks the business then it might be time to face the reality - they've been operating a 'NZ residence is for sale' business while running a cafe on the side.
Don't disagree with the concept of forcing that cost onto the business that supposedly claims the skillset is 'mission critical'. You are totally right that if $50k makes or breaks the business, then it probably tells you a heck of a lot ...
The only problem being we already have issues with dodgy employers bringing immigrant workers in and then exploiting them by paying slave wages (so there's every risk the worker arrives and then the employer claws back that $50k under the table with the worker tolerating it as a means of staying in NZ).
Perhaps more aggressive enforcement and punishment of migrant labour exploitation is required. E.g. seizure of all personal assets if a business owner is found guilty of exploiting migrant labour (after all, is it not a 'proceeds of crime' issue?) deportation with no chance of return if they aren't any NZ citizen themselves, and plenty of porridge if they can't be kicked out for good.
exploiting them by paying slave wages
Fully aware and have been for 20 years. It helps if you live on Dominion Road with a revolving door of flat mates that were often recent arrivals. Also married into the culture.
The only reason they get away with that, and you touched on it, is because of the ability to get permanent residence. Also, you could limit the number of times the same person can come in on a 50k VISA e.g. 24mths. Make it clear there isn't a pathway to residence via the employer.
We have to wake up to what we have here in NZ. Residence in NZ is worth hundreds of thousands of dollars and shouldn't be given away by employers, education institutions, or anyone else.
Perhaps more aggressive enforcement and punishment of migrant labour exploitation
I don't really see that as a good option, it is needed to stamp out what we already have here though but you're fighting cultures that make a habit of circumventing rules. They will do the wrong thing until you force them and it cost too much so you have to get the setting right to handle non-compliance (eg take a $50k fee upfront, tax land not payroll). This whole thing is a problem of our own making and is best stopped at the door (border).
There is also the Working Holiday visa holders who do a lot of hospitality and agricultural work. These people are not looking to become permanent residents and a burden on society (unless you are a Mexican backpacker looking for a husband and a cushy job as a Greens MP). This programme could be expanded while the other visas are reduced. As an example, Americans can only get a one year working holiday visa - why not double that?
I have been seasonally working in ag since covid. These are a lesser evil (since most are after the experience and not permanent residence) but make no mistake, I couldn't have switched into it if it wasn't for the boarder being closed (they were desperate and took people from all walks, a lot of unvaccinated forced career switchers). While I wouldn't pretend to be half as good as some of these overseas operators, do not be fooled that having them here doesn't take away opportunities from locals.
As a side hobby truck driving is on the skills shortage list, I have all the licences, but I cannot get a job as I have no experience. Experience isn't a problem when they cannot get in overseas people is my point. There are shortages, then there are just not prepared to train...
The secondary applicant bar graph is interesting, we're getting one person we didn't ask for every person we initially approved.
I say halt immigration (anything that gives permanent residence) but allow businesses of families to pay 50k (each person) to bring in whomever they want for 12mths. Want them for another 12mths? Fine, pay another 50k.
Then divert INZ's recourses into a detailed analysis of each person they've approved over the last 25 years (random sampling accepted). Then we might actually have some real data on the type of skill sets that have benefited NZ and those that haven't.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.