Residential property auction activity continues to ease as the market heads into autumn, with 345 properties offered at the latest auctions monitored by interest.co.nz (13-19 April). That's down from 472 the previous week.
At the height of the summer selling season more than 500 properties a week were being offered at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, so the decline is auction activity that usually occurs in autumn is now well underway.
The sales rate remains soft with 107 of the properties offered at the latest auctions selling under the hammer, giving an overall sales rate of 31%.
The sales rate has been under a third for the last five weeks, compared to 40% to 50% late last year.
Of the properties that sold, just 36% achieved prices that were equal to or above their rating valuations.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
The table below gives the district-by-district results from the latest auctions.
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73 Comments
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*Ireland house prices 2008-2022 has entered the chat*
Throw anything (and everything) at the housing market and it displays bold resilience.
Enjoy a pleasant autumn Saturday, everyone. 🏠 🍒
TTP
Resilience, or illiquidity?
TTP always answers a post high in the thread so he is "seen"
then the normal
night becomes dawn BS
clouds have silver lining
such sage advice from someone who does not even own any pooperty.
sure its a great asset , but there is a point to buy and its not now, was not last Oct either.... what a total ass clown
This is the bottom, buy now, we'll look back and say it was a no brainer
Sadly that's true mate when in 10 years time rents are $1500 a week you will look back and go, wow that house was cheap, should have bought two of them.
The hopelessly Overleveraged and Ponzi pumpers pray this is finally the bottom.........as the months and years go by, with much further declines as we are seeing right now.......they must be feeling even more silly, as their posturing looks ever more ludicrous?
Eventually though they will be right.... probably some time in 2026?
Be nice to Oblio, he has just returned from exile in the Pointless Forest. 😆
Nah, I think it's more like ↘️ then ➡️ for longer as a disproportionate number are forced to revisit past decisions.
2021 prices are well in the rear vision mirror
By the end of 2025, will the words "crash" and "rear vision mirror" easily appear in the same sentence when economists give their take on past performance? More likely than not.
https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2016/07/11/remember-the-last-time-ho….
Its clear to everyone that inflation is not going to move back into the 3% top band level for a very very long time, even at current settings.
RBNZ only have one mandate now, fight inflation. The world has stagflation, before geopolitical problems cause energy prices to rise.
There are too many with massive mortgages , often with very high income to debt levels, for there to be a soft landing. Too many being made unemployed at the moment Q2/24. Many of these people will be trying to sell into our next summer and will be focused on getting a sale vs getting a historic price level.
Capitulation is never voluntary. its caused by stop losses, margin clerks, and bank liquidations. Its better to get out with enough to start a new life in Aussie then lose the lot.
"Its clear to everyone that inflation is not going to move back into the 3% top band level for a very very long time..."
Not clear to me. Inflation, in all the countries that have experienced it, continues to track down at rates consistent with past economic shocks. As you assert this is not the case, please present some evidence that what you are asserting is actually happening.
But mostly still well above 3% right? And I think IT Guy’s point is you add all the geopolitical tensions on top of that - so inflation in many countries may stay above 3%.
Personally I am not sure. If demand destruction gets bad enough, it might get down below 3% again.
Its better to get out with enough to start a new life in Aussie then lose the lot.
This is the Australia currently experiencing 25 year high levels of insolvencies?
But Pa1nter life is so much better and lovely in Aus than NZ the grass is just so green. As I always say if you want a good JJJjooooobbbbb go to Aus if you want to be self employed NZ is better
The grass is definitely not greener in Australia!:) it's beige for half of the year due to the heat and in many parts of Aus it's probably beige all year round.
New Zealand's grass is a whole lot greener:)
@ITGUY.. was cpi for the last six months rising at 1.1 percent (0.5 plus 0.6) And the six months before that was 2.9 percent. Following the trend the next 6 months may undershoot
How long do YOU think before it gets below 3 percent for 12. You said it wouldn't be for a very very long time
Even with oil maybe (kinda definitely) rising & the pacific peso maybe (most likely) sh*tting the bed it’s hard to imagine headline inflation won’t get within 3%…if I was brother Orr I’d change up how the data is released & only give one headline number…when that gets to 3% maybe throw a few high fives around the room then head for a sweet retirement because domestic inflation is surely cooked…rent, council rates, insurance is only tracking one way…alcohol & tobacco taxes aren’t going away/down…it’s going to stay pretty untidy looking unless they use a bit of street magic to change peoples focus on the data 🤦🏻♂️
2018 prices are just around the next bend, 2015 prices are at the next pit stop
Why not just say 1950.
You should go to some open homes with a bag of shillings.
Prices are back to 1049 levels .just to make your day
I'll take your bungalow for 3 sea shells.
Because the multiple of incomes to buy a house with 2015 prices make more economic sense than today's prices, 1950's don't
Because the number of people who purchased for capital gains in 2015 or 2018 and are seeing their investment close to net zero profit is getting larger with every percentage price drop
Ultimately, because your statement is an assortment of fallacies centred around straw man with the intent to ridicule the previous comment and no intent to engage in good faith. Which shows me they hit a pain point for current realtors and there's a non-zero, and maybe even not even insignificant chance we're heading there
If you'd like a good faith discussion about why house prices won't be rationalized against incomes we can talk all day.
Unless we hit a state of permanent economic depression.
Govt drones getting exited left and right, business liquidation rising, discretionary spending gone - as any retail shop, construction sector forcast vanishing. All equals a lot less incomes fueling leverage. Add in NZ 20x more in debt with rising cost of debt thanks to the last govt, your wish of a depression may be closer than you think.
Or is it just a little turblance, covered by raising the rent again milord...
Those are all symptoms of a fairly well telegraphed recession, off the back of a pandemic - i.e. we deferred the economic impact of shutting down a global economy by putting in a line of credit.
As I've said to you for a couple of years now, we will get falling house prices, but only in conjunction with a wider economic downturn.
And, as we have already witnessed multiple times now, central authorities will step in when things hit crisis point by stimulating growth via money printing and all manner of government schemes and programs. This is showing a diminishing return over time, because all they're really doing is propping up many non viable entities.
The contention becomes whether 2020 was the last time these measures have any effect at all and we enter a state of permanent depression, or whether there's a few kicks left in the can. Assuming the latter, the fundamentals of supply and demand, and the nature of our ability to generate new houses, will continue the phenom of house prices outstripping wages. Rental yield is the only metric you seem to factor in, while ignoring the fact you can't magic up a new house that presents a better yield - it's actually considerably worse.
It seems very hard for you to distinguish me pointing this out, and actually being a cheerleader for it. I am not an advocate of the status quo.
I would like others’ opinions on the following please;
For what reason do we exclude asset prices (such as houses) in measuring inflation (the CPI ignores it) and could this erode the social contract?
Firstly, we need to agree that ordinary people spend most of their income on goods and services, while the rich spend most of their income on buying assets.
Today, arguably we are going through the worst type of inflation for the middle class you can expect from a country (which is not a failed state) where;
- Wages have not been inflating much
- Goods and services have been inflating in price
- Asset price too have been inflating but are excluded from the CPI, thus underestimating true inflation.
Are economists wrong to only look at the CPI to measure inflation?
If we almost ignore asset price inflation, does this not incentivise a rigged system where the rich can accumulate assets - such as houses - during the bust cycle while workers’ wages remain suppressed by central banks? This rigged system will result in ordinary people losing their assets - once again such as houses - during a recession due to wages not keeping up, job losses and even bankruptcy if house equity is lost.
On top of this, quantitive easing worldwide has primarily benefited the rich, as shown in the well documented growing gap between the rich and ordinary people since the GFC.
With all this cash sloshing about in the upper echelons, will they not swoop in and accumulate even more assets - such as housing - should asset prices drop further during the inevitable recession that everyone is talking about?
Surely this will exacerbate economic conditions and inequality, resulting in further erosion of the social contract? Thoughts?
Pretty well described.
Also notable that there is a lot of taxpayer and ratepayer money put toward protecting wealth too, even as the people allocating it (and receiving it) rant about the poor receiving any.
Looks like moral rot.
Absolutely, but if housing is the asset class of choice it should be fairly straightforward for any government to adjust investor behaviour and maintain the social contract. Unfortunately we have a petty conflict of interest in that our politicians build their wealth through property investment.
So do their voters
And their generous donors
A contract is only a contract if it is in writing and signed by both parties. Like the banks, trying to tell them to live up to a fictitious contract will do as much as pissing into the wind. Perhaps everyday NZ'ers will become more educated from our current circumstances before the next election and vote for the greater good of the many instead of the few, however history tells us that the majority vote for their own self interests and as long as we continue the status quo, and without some major reforms in where we incentivies investment and as a flow on, bank lending, I can't see this changing unless the recession becomes as bad as it could given Jfoe's historic points on govt spending and the deepening of the current recession.
Surely this will exacerbate economic conditions and inequality, resulting in further erosion of the social contract? Thoughts?
This is both true, and not part of the RBNZs mandate at the same time.
European settlers fled the UK and Europe to escape the evil landlord and money lender class. Shameful that in 4-5 generations we have let NZ be led back to that more or less a similar position.
Global economic leaders like the US and China have assets bloated in debt and over priced. Both seem at the precipice of an almighty reset. If they do, we are sure to follow.
Who will bail out the over leveraged.
Shameful that in 4-5 generations we have let NZ be led back to that more or less a similar position
Inevitable, given people just transplanted the same system they were fleeing to a new locale.
Average Man same as in Aus in Canada and definitly in the US. In the US you can literally get away with murder if you have got money to get the best lawyers. Not so if you are black or traler trash
The question shouldn't be who will bail them out. It should be when will humans realise that with risk comes the opportunity to both succeed AND fail, as nobody else can buffer or save those that come off unfavourably by market conditions or we have a dysfunctional market that will take too much risk with the thought process that they WILL get bailed out if they fail.
Hi Sam,
When the RBNZ was formed, the CPI was changed to exclude 'interest rate costs' as the RBNZ would now be artificially manipulating interest rates. At this point the CPI ceased to anything except the RBNZ's CPI. It really should NOT be used for anything else as it no longer reflects real Consumer Prices. Note also that NZ's government sold out every beneficiary by leaving benefits tied to a now distorted CPI. (But some - guess who - had the automatic annual adjustments linked to wages rather than the CPI.)
In short, if you want a real measure of Consumer Price Inflation, never use the RBNZ's CPI.
Stat NZ's Household Survey is better (but still a tad flawed).
Doesn’t seem ideal does it? Poor ways of measuring might explain to a degree how we got into this mess in the first place
For what reason do we exclude asset prices (such as houses) in measuring inflation (the CPI ignores it) and could this erode the social contract?
We don't, the price of houses is in the CPI.
Only to a rather limited degree; https://www.stats.govt.nz/methods/how-housing-costs-are-measured-in-con…
More listings including context such as "ignore previous price indication "
"vendor says sell" has always been my personal favourite.
😃
I think the Real Estate Institute issues a book/industry standard of property listing catch phrases or "hooks".
"Nest or Invest" seems to be quite popular. The way it rolls off the tongue, it rhymes and the target audience is those looking to feather their nest egg or invest therefore people presumably with money.
"For the astute buyer/investor" often seems to mean "there's something wrong with this one".
Indeed. But when offered the truth based on yield, most are still in a drunken disbelief bender.
The lies of the leveraged will continue untill the banks are made to also face reality. Hence increased capital requirements, dti arriving, and being force to actually pay their due tax in little ol NZ.
Do we need a banking crisis to uncloak the lies?
Renovate or remove = would be worth more if bare land....
Renovate or detonate 💙
From the stock sitting around me I feel we are still just getting underway on the downturn. Without cheap money we may well be about to take so of our long overdue medicine.
I think you’re right. History shows that these cycles can take years to play out, exacerbated by lots of can kicking to delay the inevitable taking of the medicine.
Well having just spent a couple of warm lovely days in Wanaka Cromwell and Queenstown it definitely ain't slowing down there if anything it's the total opposite. Absolute gang busters
Queenstown is irrelevant.
I wish Homes.co.nz would go show a graph back to 2019 so I know how much to offer today
I know a guy who will sell you a Flux Capacitor so you can go back to 2019 and buy a house.
Go to the Onewoof.
It's good to see it's useful for something, as it news articles are akin to TTP pro propriety propaganda, that the Nazi info minister: Goebels, would indeed be proud of!
They have the 3 and 5 year chart. But take it with a tiny grain if salt.
Really look at the specific, longterm property history of CVs and sale prices on the OWoof.
It shows some massive looses for them that got Spruiked into buying in 2020 to 2022!
Often hundreds of K losses. Negative equity, plus your still owned by the bank, for the losses, like a downtrodden prison biatch.
For any future offers, look to only offer around the sale price or CVs from 2015 to 2018, as this is where this monumental, once in generation, property crash may bottom out by 2026/7
THE NZ HOUSING MARKET CONFIDENCE IS SHOT TO HELL, ITS NOT COMMING BACK TO 2021 PRICES, FOR A DECADE OR TWO.
Paying more, would have you in negative equity or slash deeply into your deposit cash, in a near term forced sale.
Don't be the REAs usefully idiot and offer anything above prices seen over the last 5 years, as this NZ housing markets sliding into a deep, ocean, Marianus style trench, it will make the Irish and Japanese crash look like a SH1 pothole.
No flux capacitor needed here, ITS comming soon in realtime, near future.......
“FOR A DECADE OR TWO” 🤣🤣🤣
Yessiree!!
We will need, next to free money again, to resuscitate this stale and "picked over bones" of this NZ Housing Ponzi road kill.
All rates well below 3.5% would be needed, to reblow this quickly deflating, skyhigh asset bubble!
The bubble was the most epic of the ages......and this slomo burst, will be many years in the deflating. All in keeping with the epic busts and market crashes worldwide.
Even the constant wing flapping, straw cluthing and soothsayerings of TTP, Tony Alexander and Ashley Church cannot save it now. By my, they are trying. Their lives, being and reputations are tied inextricabley at keeping this gravity defying, dream consuming, Richmen ponzi, fat and aloft.
The housing market confidence of capital gains is gone, finished, lost and sunk, without trace.
You are clueless mate, I bought in late 2020 and the house is currently up $150K at least. There was a very narrow window where it all went ballistic but it wasn't 2020. The fact is you cannot simply keep "Waiting" to buy a house and think prices are going to crash, at some point when you are financially able to you have to bite the bullet and go for it.
at some point when you are financially able to you have to bite the bullet and go for it.
And for most people, a crash is a time when you're less financially able to.
Very few people I know who are crash holdouts seem to be stacking significant cash to take advantage of when it happens.
Its happening right now, with Auckland now at REAL losses of -40% and Wgton at -48%. Still rolling down this slope......
Those who negate the above current facts or current/future paradigm shift we are witnessing now, are being the preverbal "Ostridge Head" in the sand types, don't be surprised or whinge when life kicks you up the jacksie, as your blinkered to much and don't see the obvious arriving.
This reset is still playing out and the next 2 years will have the Spruikers weeping in the streets, juxtaposed with the FHBs kissing the ground at their buyability returning.
I have more than enough of my asset allocation to the NZ housing Ponzi, any more would be foolhardy!!
Most people shouldn't be over exposed, and the current conditions will do a lot of exposing.
The contention is what/when/how that "reset" is.
- they're going to pump immigration on and off for the next few decades.
- they're going to give you less places deemed suitable for more residential housing
- councils and central bodies alike are going to want to keep ratcheting up compliance
- we're not making enough tradies
- they'll print more money as it's deemed more expedient than letting natural market forces play out
The long view is for constrained supply and excess demand. There's a whole host of potential black swans out there though. Good luck accurately guessing which one might happen and when.
These are knowns:
NZs population would decline, without the importation of the 3rd world immigrants.
These 3rd world people are getting a major upgrade when arriving in NZ and think nothing of living 15 to 20x persons in a wonderful 1970's or 2022 NZ 3/4 beddy house. They are 1930's style Dirt Poor.
Running drinkable water and toilet waste disappearing - is a modern miracle.......
Rampant and flaring Inflation and High cost of DDDebt is the future and printing will just raise the cost of silver and gold.
Anything requiring DDDedt to keep it aloft is partway into an epic reset. Real earnings and yield becomes King.
With many of NZ Housing yielding a terrible rate of 2.5 to 4%, these will not withstand the market forces demanding positive yields.
- IM SURPRISED MANY, STILL NOT GOT THIS MEMO......and living in the rear vision lands of the 40 year, booming bull market, that ended dead in 2021.
Some free advice, to the Ponzi tied, many seem inextricably linked and entranced by the NZ housing Ponzi...... not good.
- DIVERSIFY widely or go down with the bad ship ponzi, when the SHTF.
Winter is good time to buy before banks start cutting mortgage rates and we'll see a big jump in house prices by end 24, beginning 25.
Rent is not affordable, my neighbour asks $800 per week for 3 beds, this is almost what I pay for mortgage, totally nonsense
Rents are HALF THE PRÌCE of a mortgage.
Keep on renting people, whose dreams of home ownership, will be much more possible, when another -20% peels of the value of the landlording classes - fat money reel.
Put deposits in the bank with good 5 and 6% returns, while property continues to drop and returns to 4 to 6x DTIs.
Many got worried Q4/23, but going into winter there seems not point in worrying, even TA reports only 6% of buyers have FOMO in latest survey.
Reading his latest missives I hear a beep, beep, beep in the background as the bus backs up.
Poor ole Tones, his Complete Clown Car of predictions just gets more laughable as time goes on.......his every attempt to refire the Ponzi afterburners fails and falls flat.
Has no one informed this "Independant economist" that the Ponzi fuel tanks of free debt money is now empty and bone dry ??
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