We hear a lot these days about the number of New Zealanders leaving to live and work overseas and the effect this is having on our population growth.
But it may be that population patterns from migration are simply returning to their long-term norms after a period of significant disruption.
It is certainly true that the number of New Zealand citizens emigrating to foreign shores is close to a record high, with Statistics NZ estimating 69,231 left long-term over the 12 months to the end of January this year.
The effects of that loss were mitigated by the return of 24,997 NZ citizens after an extended stay overseas during the same 12 month period..
That gave an estimated net loss of 44,234 NZ citizens over the 12 months to the end of January this year.
Having a net loss of NZ citizens in a year is not unusual, in fact it is the norm.
Over the last 24 years to January, there was a net loss of NZ citizens due to migration every year from 2002 to 2019 and then again from 2022 to 2025.
The only time in the last 24 years that more New Zealanders have returned than departed long-term was in 2020 and 2021 as the Covid pandemic gripped the planet, and NZ citizens rushed back to home and hearth.
The net losses then resumed in 2022, as shown in the graph below, (the blue line).
Although the net loss of 44,234 NZ citizens in the year to January 2025 was high, it wasn't a record.
That was set in the previous 12 months, (year to January 2024), when there was a net loss of 44,731 NZ citizens.
Neither was the net loss that unusual.
The net loss in 2012 came close at 43,519 and also in 2008/2009 when it was around 37,000 in both years.
So the current high net loss of NZ citizens may already have passed its peak and be beginning to stabilise.
One thing the high outflow of NZ citizens has done is to bring down the total population gain from migration to around its long-term average.
Over the 24 years from 2002 to 2025, 12 months to January, Statistics NZ figures suggest there was a cumulative net population gain of 763,281 people from migration, which gives a long-term average of 31,803 a year.
That in turn is near enough to bang-on the net gain of 32,471 in the 12 month to January this year.
So in spite of recent swings and roundabouts in the composition of NZ's migration figures, total net population growth from migration is currently running at its long-term average, which may not be a bad thing.
After all, it must be a lot easier to provide the necessities of modern life, such as employment and housing and services such as health, education and efficient transportation, to 32,000 extra people, than it was to provide those things to the almost 122,000 that swelled this country's population in the year to January 2023, or even the 77,000 in 2019/20.
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20 Comments
Jeez…Kraken, I should’ve waited a day and added this to my list of spruiks 😉😂
Haha look out it’s all coming together 📈↗️🏠
In 2022, New Zealand registered 38,574 deaths
bugger.
...and 58,887 births!
Babies do not need houses, they share existing parent house. At least not for about 18 years ish, then they goto aussie anyways. Current immigration numbers are not going to provide a lift in house prices.
BUGGER
See Pragmatist's comment.
what is the average age of a FHBer in NZ?
35 - 37. Around 58,000 births in 1988.
And 20 years ago there were also 58,000 births, the majority of who are now entering adulthood and moving out from home.
Anybody with half a brain could have seen that Zach was pointing out you had missed a large component of the population so your 'analysis' was flawed.
32,500 for the year or 2,700 a month, but what’s the trend? December 2024 was net ~900 from memory. Was the majority of the increase from the first half of last year? Are we trending negative as unemployment rises?
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/131946/outflow-nz-citizens-appears-h…
Will be interesting to see, could be backdated data doing the heavy lifting, could be the worst is behind us 🤷🏻♂️
It started a conversation, the comments section is starting to look dangerously groupthink, different perspectives are wonderful
And we have firmly reverted to our status as way-station to other places.
Given the apparently transitory nature of our population, is it any wonder one of our major economic activities is buying and selling houses?
15% of New Zealanders live in Australia.
I would love to see data on the number of NZ citizens leaving who have been citizens for less than a year. I work in an industry where it's very common for people to come here on working visas with their only goal being to get NZ citizenship so they can immediately emigrate permanently to Australia.
The narrative that we're losing citizens and filling up with immigrants ignores the impact of these new citizens jumping ship to greener pastures as soon as they are able to.
There will eventually come a time when New Zealand decides that it really does need a population policy that takes into account that the New Zealand economy is underpinned by natural physical resources.
KeithW
And sadly by the time that realisation occurs it will be too late....the damage is done.
Would have been true 100 years ago. So that 'come a time' of rationality will never arrive.
And during those hundred years there has been huge innovation in the use of those natural resources, including new technologies that have greatly augmented capture of the sun's energy through photosynthesis, and turning the consequent plant and animal material into marketable products. But there are very limited photosynthetic innovations in the pipeline.
KeithW
Agreed but that requires a government bucking the western trend of growth forever - which would make them look weak at the table with the big boys. And we all know those in [what they perceive to be] high status cannot be perceived as weak above all else.
Do these numbers only refer to NZ citizens "the number of New Zealand citizens emigrating" or does it also include "residents" and "permanent" residents? And what is a New Zealander ? I do not regard Peter Thiel as a New Zealander (touted in the media as NZs richest man), he has multiple passports, does he live here more than 6 months in a year - doubt it - does he pay tax here - doubt it. We hand out residency and citizenship to people who choose to live elsewhere but good ol NZ is then the bolt hole when they need it e.g for health care (not Theil of course can't see him in Wellington public hospital), or their old age, having contributed nothing to our tax base in the meantime.
He paid his $5m in contribution to essentially get his citizenship and then he has all the rights the rest of us do. Heck if I was a multi millionnaire I would get a couple of golden passports as well for tax purposes.
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