By Chris Trotter*
It is difficult to determine whether the abrupt shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy is accidental or intentional. If this country’s sudden tilt away from Beijing is simply the result of our pro-American Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, taking advantage of the Covid-19 crisis to opportunistically curry favour with Washington, then it is reversible. If the recent and repeated provocation of the Chinese Government is intentional, however, then a fundamental reorientation of New Zealand diplomacy is underway – a change for which neither New Zealanders, nor their business enterprises, have been adequately prepared.
The two provocations in question are both closely related to the Covid-19 Pandemic. The first arose out of the Foreign Minister’s publicly expressed support for the Australian Government’s call for an international inquiry into the Chinese authorities initial handling of the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. The second, even more serious, provocation was Peters’ decision to back Taiwan’s participation in an international Covid-19 conference organised by the World Health Organisation.
The Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s call for an international investigation of China’s handling of the Wuhan outbreak is pretty obviously a water-carrying exercise for the Trump Administration. With the Covid-19 virus claiming American lives at the rate of 2,000 per day, President Donald Trump – ably assisted by his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – is doing all he can to convince Americans that their woes are attributable to the Chinese Government’s failure to contain the virus within China’s borders. Washington has called upon its allies and friends for assistance, and Australia, as always, has been quick to oblige its American “mates”. Much more surprisingly, so has New Zealand.
Peters’ support for Morrison’s call has bewildered Beijing. Canberra’s shadowing of Washington’s diplomatic sallies is expected by the Chinese. They don’t like it (and have made their displeasure very plain) but they are not surprised by it. Peters’ behaviour, on the other hand, has left them perplexed. Is he acting with the full knowledge and blessing of his Prime Minister? If so, then Jacinda Ardern is deliberating putting at risk the mutually respectful and highly beneficial relationship that has evolved between Beijing and Wellington over the course of nearly half a century. If not, then what the hell is going on inside the New Zealand Government?
It’s a question that is doubtless being asked with even more force following the second provocation. Beijing’s acute sensitivity to all things Taiwanese is a given of international relations. To recognise the Peoples Republic of China – as New Zealand did in 1973 – is to withdraw recognition from the Republic of China (which is still how the government in Taipei styles itself). As far as the Chinese are concerned, the island of Taiwan is an integral part of the Chinese state which will eventually, like Hong Kong and Macau, be reabsorbed into the motherland.
All this has been crystal clear to New Zealand diplomats for 47 years. Hence Beijing’s fury at Peters’ support for Taiwanese participation in the WHO conference. The Chinese Government knows that the New Zealand Government knows that participation in WHO events is restricted to member states. The very suggestion that Taiwan should be allowed to attend will therefore be interpreted by Beijing as a profoundly disruptive diplomatic gesture. In associating Wellington with yet another anti-Chinese American thrust, Peters is at risk of permanently damaging Sino-New Zealand relations.
Both the Foreign Minister and the Trade Minister, David Parker, are fully conscious of the size of China’s contribution to New Zealand’s economic wellbeing. It is, therefore, not unreasonable to assume that in this matter both men are aware of factors which the rest of New Zealand knows nothing about. Risking a catastrophic breakdown in Sino-New Zealand relations is, surely, not something those entrusted with the nation’s welfare would contemplate in the absence of a rock-solid guarantee that if we get knocked down, then somebody is waiting in the wings to pick us up.
Realistically, that “somebody” could only be Uncle Sam. But, if the United States is prepared to step into the economic space vacated by a permanently alienated China, then Washington’s campaign to contain and confound their East Asian rival has clearly been ratcheted-up several notches. The arguments of those who claim the world is now in the throes of a new Cold War will be vindicated.
One of the strongest indications that something major is afoot is the level of co-operation currently on display between Peters and Parker. A fair and generous free-trade agreement between the United States and New Zealand has long been Parker’s Holy Grail. Trump’s hostility towards free-trade – manifested in his extraordinary decision to pull the USA out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017 – appeared to signal that all hope of such a mutually beneficial free-trade relationship with the Americans was now vain. For this bleak situation to change, something truly cataclysmic would have to intervene.
Bleak Situation, meet Covid-19.
The Covid-19 Pandemic currently convulsing the planet has brought an unusual measure of clarity to the USA’s strategic thinking. Allowing China to become “the workshop of the world”, while bringing immense profits to American corporations, has also been responsible for enhancing significantly China’s economic – and hence strategic – global position. The playing-out of the Pandemic has made it unnervingly clear to Washington exactly how extensive that transformation has been. The strategic implications for the United States of China exercising hegemony in East Asia are as clear in 2020 as they were in 1941 when President Franklin Roosevelt reviewed the likely consequences of Japan exercising hegemony over the same real estate.
As Jeffery Record explains in his 2009 monograph Japan’s Decision For War In 1941: Some Enduring Lessons:
“[T]he Roosevelt administration […] regarded a Japanese invasion of Southeast Asia, especially the oil-rich Dutch East Indies and tin- and rubber-rich British Malaya, as strategically unacceptable. Control of Southeast Asia would not only weaken the British Empire and threaten India, Australia, and New Zealand; it would also afford Japan access to oil and other critical raw materials that would reduce its economic dependence on the United States.”
Record quotes fellow American historian Jonathan Marshall’s observation that the Roosevelt Administration was wedded to the “fundamental proposition that the United States and Britain could not afford to lose the raw material wealth and the sea lanes of Southeast Asia” – even at the cost of going to war.
The United States and her English-speaking “Five Eyes” allies can no more afford to allow China to roll out its “One Belt, One Road” project unhindered, than Roosevelt could acquiesce in Japan’s assertion of its “Great East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere”. To do so would mean abandoning not only the nations of South East Asia, but also Australia and New Zealand, to Chinese domination. The United States’ emphatic answer to Beijing’s perceived regional and global aspirations is its new “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, through which Washington, Tokyo, Canberra and New Delhi intend to contain and confound China’s geopolitical ambitions. It is with these four capitals (“The Quad”) that Wellington now appears to be identifying itself. (“Quad+1”).
All of which suggests that New Zealand’s sudden foreign policy shift is, indeed, intentional. In the absence of a clear, official, first-principles government explanation, however, New Zealand’s farmers and manufacturers can only cross their fingers and hope that before embarking on a diplomatic re-orientation costing, potentially, one in every five of this country’s export-generated dollars, Winston Peters and David Parker were given incontrovertible proof that the USA’s primary and secondary producers are ready and willing for their country to receive all the product New Zealand can send.
Because God help them – and us – if they haven’t.
*Chris Trotter has been writing and commenting professionally about New Zealand politics for more than 30 years. His work may be found at http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com. He writes a fortnightly column for interest.co.nz.
186 Comments
Taiwan clearly has an important contribution to make to public health care in East Asia. Perhaps the diplomatic solution may lie in having WHO extend its membership beyond recognised sovereign states to "sovereign states and interested entities", or some similar formula that allows Taiwan to play a full part in WHO without touching on the gnarly issue of its status.
John
It is often forgotten that China and Taiwan do actually work together on many issues. There is a lot of Taiwanese investment in China, and in normal times there are many plane flights back and forward every day. It really requires China and Taiwan to sort out themselves how they are going to manage issues such as the UN and WHO. An observer status within an overarching China membership might have possibilities. But progress is much more likely if we in the West butt out of how they bring this about.
KeithW
In all the anti-China posters world, things that the whites can do should not all apply to people with different colours.
One example, the US can send out 10 air fight carriers to patrol all the oceans while China cannot build defence system in the South China Seas to defend themselves.
I'd call it double standard or just racist.
We do run a double standard, that's true.
One standard for democratically based, free countries with track records of treating their citizen with respect and another for totalitarian oligarchies with secret police and a track record of murdering millions of their own citizens.
I am not against China but I am against the CCP. Almost all the Chinese people I have met in my lifetime are wonderful people with many admirable qualities.
But I love freedom and I won't apologise for it.
Wow. A new low? Your virtue signalling around a supposed care for those people around the world who aren't white is truly laughable. The Uyghur's, Africans whom you steal resources from, people's of the Pacific who learnt the hard way, Tibetans, pretty much everyone in SE Asia etc etc, the list goes on. Please, spare us.
Who is talking about people of different colours? You, Xing are the only one here referring to people's colour in a derogatory way. I am offended by your racist slurs, and the fact that you pretend everyone posting here is white. You have no right or evidence to suggest this. Practically everyone here differentiates between Chinese nationality people, who of course consist of many races, and the CCP, except you.
The USA aren't building new man-made islands to extend territorial claims on international waters, where they do not exist now. That goes well beyond any other countries actions in the world and should be viewed with suspicion and resisted by reasonable minded people. Regardless of our views on the USA president, or our positive trading relationship with China, wrong is wrong.
"Much more surprisingly, so has New Zealand".
Not surprising. We speak English, at the end of the day. And there's Five Eyes. And the announcement about Microsoft - unexamined by what is left of the MSM, as far as I have seen.
Parker is indeed a worry. Cognitively dissonant, in my book. Lovely, lovely man, but thinks you can 'have your environment' and have 'growth' too. This is just plain wrong. False. Incorrect. (Choose one).
And major plays are afoot, which tell us the TPPA is history. Globalism turns out to have high-water-marked about 1995, and the trend has been to nationalism ever since. Brexit etc. This event has cascaded that retreat, sovereign Govt's everywhere have taken control not for ideological reasons, but because leadership was needed, and neoliberal freemarketry lacks leadership. Indeed, publicly it rails against it.
> And major plays are afoot, which tell us the TPPA is history. Globalism turns out to have high-water-marked about 1995, and the trend has been to nationalism ever since. Brexit etc. This event has cascaded that retreat, sovereign Govt's everywhere have taken control not for ideological reasons, but because leadership was needed, and neoliberal freemarketry lacks leadership. Indeed, publicly it rails against it.
It's worse, politicians of every stripe are the frontmen for the oligarchs. There's no tenable escape route to liberty for the plebs.
Is that true? Weren't the oligarchs for Hilary Clinton and she out spent Trump. Is there a wealthy self made person who admires Trump? Didn't he get most votes from poor americans?
However I agree with you that lobbyists control NZ govt or at least the two large parties. Our biggest lobbyists being Chinese govt united front and our universities. Both have a good message: education is good for us and trade both ways with China is good for us - both suffer from the same argument about panadol - it is good for us so lets have more.
We HAVE to move away from China and diversify our interests and reliance on trading partners
The fact is they need out milk powder and baby formula , and they will always buy our logs .
For the rest we need friends in the free world , Australia the US and EU .
China has been up to their normal tricks with this virus ..............lying , cheating and economical with the truth
Boatman,
fair enough, but be very careful what you wish for. To expect this US administration to treat its allies fairly requires an enormous leap of faith. "Lying, cheating and economical with the truth' sums up Trump pretty well and when it comes to any trade deal, do not underestimate the bargaining power of American farmers and big pharma.
The US would never attack us but there is one country who is island hopping closer to us each passing year. They have invaded other countries island chains in the South China Sea. They have taken ownership of the Pacific Islands by locking the corrupt leaders into bad debt. They are heading our way and only one country can and will stop them. They have their eyes on us that's for sure.
The Americans DID plan to attack us early in the 20th century.
“A North Shore Times article on plans for a United States invasion is part of a centenary exhibition on the Great White Fleet. The New Zealand National Maritime Museum is commemorating the arrival ...”
http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/north-shore-times/552755/US-…
The NST was an excellent newspaper. Sadly missed.
Poor old sleepy Joe already has the strings attached for his puppeteers to operate. He is just awful, and unelectable. Trumpie said he should fight the case of the girl who accused him of molesting him. Good old Trumpie sticking up for Joe. One of the wittiest things said this year.
After the fall of France, Britain and its commonwealth fought Germany, the Axis, alone. Up until Barbarossa, the Soviet Union heavily supplied raw material to the German economy and war machine. Come Pearl Harbour enter USA vs Japan, but the Americans prioritised the European theatre. And as an aside the USA had assisted China against the Japanese invasion in the 1930’s, unfortunately for the US Chiang Kai Shek subsequently lost. So there is a longstanding club if you like of Western Allies that have come to trust one another. The irony is that both Germany and Japan are now potential club members.
I've got a team mate that works as a consultant in the forestry industry, about 100 of them working in NZ. They are below the radar, employed by an investment company that has purchased the forests. Probably US based, so in a roundabout way it is the US that misses out on such trade as much as us.
No one can argue with diversification.
But as per a previous comment, lying, cheating and economy with the truth is the hallmark of whichever superpower that currently holds sway. Because to maintain power in a dog eat dog world requires it.
At least China are upfront / unapologetic about it when found out!!
"Is Winston Peter provoking Bejing accidentally or intentionally ?'
Why single out WP. Entire world is asking question and now been aware are trying to protect/reset their economy/country.
Many with vested biased interest will be upset with questions being asked but post virus era will be different and will be divided. It will be hard for China to impliment their agenda going future.
Understand, will be short term pain (For long term Gain) as China has peneterated many country with their money and muscle power and for many country Rock Star Economy equates to China.
Will not be easy as have also entered parliament, agencies (Like WHO) through back door and dictating political class of many countries in influencing decession/outcome to suite their agenda.
How many countries / politicans have guts to raise question of : Democracy/freedom in China, Internment Camps in Uyghurs, South China Sea......
Nobody trusts Winston. But he is expert at predicting the mood of the nation's voters. That is anti-China at present. A pity since we were too pro-China in the past and now we are too anti-China.
Best to treat China like an elephant: respect but cautious - the last thing to do is assume it will respond to 'friendship'. Do elephants make friends with mice? Rapidly undo all those confucius institutes and city partnerships.
I disagree.
China Communist Party deserves world's owed respect for bringing the entire human kind toward a brighter future.
CCP is the most competent political party ever existed during the entire known human history.
NZ's GDP per capita would the highest in the world if CCP style management were in place.
Is that the same CCP that killed 45m of its own people during the 'great leap forward' - the only dispute by historians being whether it was a deliberate policy to kill land owners beause they might rebel or whether it was just spectacular incompetance - everyone too scared to give bad news to their bosses - which reminds me of the Wuhan Doctors who first suggested Covid-19 was dangerous.
I suggest you check GDP per capita of NZ, China, Taiwan, Singapore.
China would be the worlds largest economy today if the Kuomintang had won the civil war. Change my mind. And don't give us one of your standard Wumao Army lines, bot. Let's see an actual argument (expecting no reply to this, as per usual). If you can't do this, I think you should take yourself and your handbook of proclamations over to stuff.co.nz.....or rt.com, which seems to be better suited for you.
Lol, someone is getting a promotion within the 50cent army I see~~~
Well done comrade Wang well done!!!
Jokes asides..... China would had been much better now if the Ccp did not mismanaged their resources during the Great leap or shoot down their own brightests at you know where square which sets the country back 20 or so years behind.
Is just one failed policy after another until xiao ping went screw communism and opened the market up in 1992.
Yet with some good reforms the Ccp are still a bunch of morons and decides that brain washing their own people into a bunch of urban peasants to better control rather than to educate them into critical thinkers that to drive the country forward with innovations.
Just look at China now!!! Nothing original and all just rip offs through reverse engineering. Most of their so called innovators are foreign trained from the free world.
Best yet my commie friend if Ccp China is so great why is it that all high ranking officials and wealthy individuals have multiple passports from free world Western countries??? Are you purge ready my comrade???
And here we all are, the Entire World no less, forced to stay home for weeks on end, watching the death and destruction of our people and our economy, and knowing, with absolutely no doubt in anyone’s minds, that the ONLY people to blame for this catastrophe is the Chinese Communist Party.
And yet here you are saying the CCP is responsible for bringing the entire human kind toward a brighter future? What planet are you on? Trying to dig the CCP out of this hole with your propaganda nonsense. Good luck with that.
you think as a country we would learn not to put all our eggs in one basket
after great Britain joined the EU we had to find new markets and fast, and we did we created CER and did free trade agreements , then along comes china, and what happens they take over a big slice of our exports and imports and again we are back at square one.
Wrong. We have hastily shuffled our trading partners around quite a bit over my lifetime. British cars, Japanese, Aussie, US, Thai, Malaysian, German, French, Russian, Chinese, Dutch, Chekoslavakian, Yugoslavian, Polish, Indian, Brazilian, Italian, Taiwanese, Mexican that I can think of.Any other countries supplied us with cars over the last 50 years?
China's response to the coronavirus and NZ's initial unwillingness to contradict CCP press releases (to protect our exports) got us a lengthy lock down and a lot of economic hardship. If the world forgives and forgets China's selfish handling of the outbreak there's a good chance nothing inside China will change and next time they will once again delay their response to the next virus until the becomes the world's problem to deal with.
Lets see if China actually follows though with its threats to stop importing our food. I believe that China needs the rest of the world more than rest of the world needs China. If China escalates the situation and the rest of world does not cave they will find them selves having to rely on their own food production and much lower long term growth. There are plenty of other developing countries to move factories to if it comes to that.
Our food is basic - it sells on the open international market. China may well stop buying our milk but does anyone think they will stop buying milk from every country? Same applies to logs. It is not as if we were selling say Champayne or Scotish Whisky that can be replaced with other forms of alcohol.
How many alternative suppliers for milk power and logs are currently on good terms with China? If they stop importing our milk powder they will become more dependent on alternatives. If the criticism from the other suppliers does not stop can they ban them all too? There is not a lot of goodwill towards China at the moment ( and governments are going to be forced to criticize them), if China escalate this badly they may find themselves isolated. Sure, governments will probably blink after the first imports are banned and China gets what it wants but that's a dangerous game to play.
All milk producers sell their milk powder to Singapore where it is relabelled and sold on to whoever wants it. For example most of the developed world consumes Honey and whatever is on the label often a careful inspection will find pollen from plants only grown in China.
No business is one way. Buyers need sellers and vice versa.
China needs the world or does not need as much as world need or does not need China.
Wherever you see, one can feel the anti China feeling world over and more the damage by virus more the feeling will grow.
China may or may not have created the virus in the lab but surely delayed and manipulated along with WHO to suit their agenda or whatever and world has right to hold them accountable and ask questions.
The CCP maintains control of the masses by an unwritten agreement that jobs will be provided and rice bowls filled.
Upset that and the masses will no longer ignore the mass surveillance, the knocks on the door in the middle of the night, the disappearances, the cover ups, the enrichment of those in control.
I really don't think its communism.
I'm not convinced. You assume the masses don't quietly support the CCPs world domination at any cost agenda, and are not willing to make personal sacrifices to see it delivered. The Han people have a level of individual and social discipline (and cohesivity of collective aims) the average Westerner doesn't understand and probably could never relate to.
Do we really think there is the risk of famine in China? I don't see it. They have huge agrarian activity in country to keep them going. The NZ milk they import only feeds the wealthy, visit any flash supermarket in the middle of a fancy suburb of Beijing and you will see it's a specialist product. Then jump on a train for an hour and visit any of the surrounding small villages and see people living off rice and veges. None of the rice or veges are imported.
They're a massive food importer. They don't and can't grow anywhere near enough to feed their population at anything approaching Western standards. Their viable farmland is a fraction of what they would need.
That's the problem. The vast majority don't eat at anywhere near western standards. That's why you can't get your head around it. When I was studying Mandarin over there my class (of expats) went out to teach some local village schools english. They went out of their way to prepare us the nicest meals they could. The quality of the meat and veg was honestly horrendous. Our street sleepers wouldn't go near it.
That's what the majority of their population eats for special occasions. At least that's the way it was 15 years ago. I don't see why they couldn't go back to that, if things have improved in any material way since then, as it's still within one generations timeframe.
Also they don't farm like we do. They farm extremely intensively with huge amounts of chemicals and pesticides to produce low nutritional value food. That's why they import our flash stuff for the richies
If this becomes international war, which is inevitably where this train is heading (just will it be in the short, medium, or long term future), their wealthy will be fed. They may not be eating NZ cream and scotch fillet, but they will be fed. I can't see them having an issue with that under the circumstances
Winston made the comment regarding Taiwan's WHO membership "personally", so he didn't represent the government. It shows Winston is indeed a master player in NZ politics. He said things his voters and potential voters wanted to hear, and that's it.
To be a WHO member, Taiwan needs to be a UN member state first. Being a permanent member of the UN security council, China can veto it all day long.
This is like applying a little bit of political pressure on a larger nation and trying to punch above our weight.
There is no cosying up to the US indicated in this. It can be treated as a pure Health issue and trying to get an idea of the best practices in controlling the virus. WP is on the right track, I think. Focus on the message and not on the messenger.
i dont know if you saw Jamie lee ross comments, it looks like one party is already infiltrated
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/111966054/jamilee-ross-makes-…
Yes as bad as what many claim Labour have been, my trust towards the current National outfit is near zero, despite having been a National voter in the past.
National Party founding principles from 1936: "To promote good citizenship and self-reliance; to combat communism and socialism; to maintain freedom of contract; to encourage private enterprise; to safeguard individual rights and the privilege of ownership; to oppose interference by the State in business, and State control of industry”.
Now instead of combating communism, they clearly want it within their ranks and want to sell the country to the CCP! How bizarre.
You'd find things would turn extremely fascist extremely quickly in that scenario. And I'm not talking about the Chinese NZers - it would be European NZers going hard right and muscling up. Farmers, Rugby heads, anyone who listens to The Rock or Hauraki, Tradesmen, Hunters, folks (mostly men) who are quiet and on the fringes at the moment.
Hard to see that happen as there is alot of HK escapee from the 90's who had already established themselves here that are forever anti China and pro Britain.
Also I find that there is a portion of mainland ones that had escaped Ccp with their family are actually quite educated in a western sense and are not for anyone and just want to get on with their lives here.
It is only very recently that I see more pro Ccp types here. Most are from what I called the urban plebs class that got rich because daddy is either a corrupt official or just lucky when their town got brought out by Ccp for development and thereby got some money to move out.
To a very large degree, NZ does not have any say who buys its products. I think it is fair to say where NZ could sell all its products to US and Australia and Europe, it would have. So in absence of potential buyers, the only other thing NZ can do is to cut its production significantly down and focus on high value produce. And while this approach with have massive profit opportunity for the few NZ entities who succeed in doing it, it will mean a poorer NZ as a country by a significant amount.
It is very, very hard for NZ to move away from a primary industry product producer. I guess the reliance on China market can be reduced with a lot of trade efforts in other markets (and this should be done), but I am afraid that this "diversification" of markets will be very limited unless our NZ export portfolio changes, which is back to square one: it is very very hard for NZ to replace its primary products export
Very true - in the past the US, UK and Europe have all turned their backs on us in the name of their local politics when it suited them. and the US shut is out when something we did irked them a little (nuclear free policy). The world today is much less certain, and I find myself agreeing with many of the perceptions and commentary presented here. Winnie is the master of saying what the voters think and it is election year, and he does understand that in the real world we have little ability to divorce ourselves from international politics, BUT we do have to decide culturally, and trade wise (they are not the same thing) we we will sit, and it might not be able to be in different camps.
As usual, Winnie's not far off from his key point of difference, now less than 5 months away from elections. He's got his canny Scottish heritage on full alert, which when combined with his Ngapuhi nastiness, can be a formidable opponent, even with his advancing years. And today, after two & a half years of stumbling, bumbling & fumbling their way through to this point, he's got to separate NZF. From my sources on the ground in Wellington, it has been quite a chaotic couple of months within state-side, to put it mildly. We have gone from governance by committee, to governance by emergency, two opposing formats if ever there were any. And they still stuffed up the border quarantine in the first half of March. 18 weeks to go.
He would be in the majority of politicians then. The first rule of politics is ‘get elected’, as is rules two, three and four, and so on. And in response to another commentator, if the 5% of Chinese citizens vote for a Chinese party, so what? That’s MMP. Maori, Poms, Indians, Samoans etc are all free to do the same. Bit like the oldies and NZF.
With the 75th Anniversary of VE and VJ days this year, it could be time to remember who our allies were in WWII. One being the Republic of China (aka Taiwan) who were the Government of Mainland China in those times. Imagine if the CCP regime fell over tomorrow and our old ally the Republic of China was ready and willing to govern a free and truly democratic re-united China.
Modern Taiwan was not established until late 1945, after the defeat of Japan. You could say that notionally the Kuomintang rulers of Taiwan's ROC government were 'allies' during WW2 if you included their fight against Japanese invaders on the mainland that began in the 1930's. But to present Tawian as having rallied to the western cause in response to pearl harbour would be not the full story.
That Sino Japan conflict created some interesting threads for later when the conflict became global. Firstly Zhukov for the Russians gave the Japanese a fair hiding and his tactics of flanking armour became the blue print for operations when Russia started the German retreat. Secondly America had some troops alongside Chiang Khai Shek, plus air support, transport and combat, The Flying Tigers. They correctly deduced this would engender valuable combat experience for the inevitable war. Trouble was you couldn’t tell MacArthur anything, hence the utter disgrace at Clark Airfield, the surrender of the Phillipines.
A fashionable romantic revisionism is that the US military machine valued and supported the exceptional Claire Chennault and his flying tigers. In reality he battled hard to achieve grudging recognition, was under resourced and constantly locked in dispute with the US chief in China, Joe 'vinegar' Stilwell. A remarkable man and leader, his interceptor combat theories were world leading.
To be fair to the Japanese, by the time Zhukov was sent east his armour and forces vastly outnumbered the Japanese. He was also by this time very experienced at tank warfare and up against an enemy facing imminent defeat and without much real experience in large scale tank battles.
But I thought Japanese tanks was as bad as Italian tanks to begin with. Because being an island nation they invested in warships and planes instead.
They had easy opponents on land battles since anything SEA muster was a joke and KMT China had a terrible command structure where every general and commander was fighting for their own turf and not as a United front.
The Soviets was their only real opponent till the US hit them. Both have greater industrial capacity and resources.
That is right. The fighting up in the far reaches of Mongolia was on sweeping terrain and hill country. The Japanese had only light tanks but sufficient earlier on to overcome the Chinese who had none, and then later on good for certain functions of jungle fighting. The Russians were still developing their armour but what they had already, was heavier and superior to that of the Japanese. It is easily overlooked how educational this conflict was for the Russians in terms of developing their tactics and firepower for later deployment.
The United States’ emphatic answer to Beijing’s perceived regional and global aspirations is its new “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, through which Washington, Tokyo, Canberra and New Delhi intend to contain and confound China’s geopolitical ambitions. It is with these four capitals (“The Quad”) that Wellington now appears to be identifying itself. (“Quad+1”).
Is the US financially capable of executing such a policy over the long run, while trying to contain Russia on another front?
Here Is The Real April Jobs Report: 42 Million Unemployed, 25.5% Unemployment Rate
As far as containing Russia on the other end I would enjoin that if 75 years after VE Day Europe's 27 member states can't contain a very weakened "Bear" who is now subsisting on $20 barrel oil then that's not much saying much for Europe. Happily at least Trump has them paying a far better share of NATO costs than the former President who whispered in Putin's ear that he could offer Russia far more help after the Election. China had counted on the paper tiger legacy of Obama, but just as France changed after Louis the XVI due to popular uprising the American unwashed who elected Trump meant to upset the conventional way of doing business in Washington & Wall Street. After Covid 19 China will never have a friend in Washington and that suits the Trump electorate just fine. I think the NZ electorate will be waking up as well.
Trotter validly questions where Ardern sits on Peters taking NZ into a confrontation with china. He is deputy PM, she is the one purportedly in charge. It is time for her to either front the nation on why her government has drastically changed course or else pull Peters into line. Might a desire to silence media examination of Peters be behind her department of prime minister and cabinet's recent strategy of stifling the press by refusing ministerial access ?
I am not sure US anti China hysteria currently overwhelming their political discourse has more substance than the now discredited Russia hoax. I would hate to see NZ drawn in, then spat out when domestic US politics directs it's attention elsewhere as their empire's collapse accelerates.
To the Baby Boom generation (of which I am): We must stop thinking about ourselves, and start considering what is best for our kids and our grand kids. China is not our friend, and never will be as long as they are communist, anti Judaeo Christian principles (and even Allah) - as Xi (and anyone who comes after) is their god. They are playing the long game and seek to have us as their offshore farm one day. We must, must, must align ourselves closely with our historical allies no matter what the cost. Short term pain for long term gain. Already, more hotels, motels, farms, residential property etc etc is in the hands of the Chinese here than what most people realise. And it is never spoken off, or researched - you would have to be thick not to see that. Once in the Chinese hands, it NEVER goes back because it is part of the long game. We have a window of opportunity to get out of their claws, if we blow it, well, we blow it for our grandkids. I am ready to take a hit for their sake.
Just as the US sought and bought Europe into vassal state status. And thereafter seeks to sanction them into submission.
BNW you have nailed it. They have one last target before they own our dairy processing, that being Fonterra. As CV19 has shown the time to cripple an industry is short, if China boycotted our milk powder for a month or 2 the industry would be bankrupt and then they could get Fonterra on sale. Then they could control the milk price, bankrupt the farmers to buy the farms and that gets them the whole dairy industry. And guess where the farm labour will come from?
When in opposition he spoke of concern with respect to our relationship within the Five Eyes alliance many a time. Not unexpected that he would look to repair that.
One of the best things National could do in the upcoming election is put Jian Yang way, way down the list.
As far as containing Russia on the other end I would enjoin that if 75 years after VE Day Europe's 27 member states can't contain a very weakened "Bear" who is now subsisting on $20 barrel oil then that's not much saying much for Europe. Happily at least Trump has them paying a far better share of NATO costs than the former President who whispered in Putin's ear that he could offer Russia far more help after the Election. China had counted on the paper tiger legacy of Obama, but just as France changed after Louis the XVI due to popular uprising the American unwashed who elected Trump meant to upset the conventional way of doing business in Washington & Wall Street. After Covid 19 China will never have a friend in Washington and that suits the Trump electorate just fine. I think the NZ electorate will be waking up as well.
The notion of Russia being an economic powerhouse to rival the west has been a myth for many years. Its economy is smaller than Californias and also of four other individual US states. Putin wasted the oil and gas boom years by massive military spending. He does however seem to have learned the hard lessons from the USSRs weapons supply debacle of the Vietnam war where massive spending placed its economy on a downward relative track to the US. These days he limits himself to his brave airforce bombing Syrian hospitals and community centres.
In PPP terms Russia is the fifth largest economy in the world according to the IMF.
Yes, PPP. This measure might be OK when comparing the cost of provisioning a ground army but it presents a bit of problem when considering the relative ability of countries to develop or procure high tech weapons componentry . Regrettably dragging in a peasant such as T34 magician Mikhail Koshkin to design and build a tank that is competitive on the world stage, is not these days realistic.
Russia is a nuclear armed superpower with the most modern delivery missles in the world.
Yes, Putin has spent large on shiny missiles, his only way of retaining a portion of the power and prestige the once mighty USSR had. His conventional forces significantly lag those of the USA. Russia has limited conventional force projection capability, with only one outdated carrier. Nuclear is one of the few high value cards in his hand.
Here is the real deal. As I stated not for once, and even wrote a book on this issue, main concern is a dramatic shift in geopolitical power balance that Kinzhal and Burevestnik provide even merely in a conventional, non-nuclear that is, variants. Burevestnik (Petrel) is a weapon which assures that no one who makes a homicidal decision to unleash a global war, while sitting it out somewhere in Patagonia or in New Zealand, will feel safe from, as it is becoming known, Mach=6+ justice capable to wait for attack for days in the air. In general, this weapon is for cooling heads trying to save their asses in the Southern Hemisphere, in addition to its already wide range of purely military applications globally. Per Kinzhal--it was discussed so much and on so many occasions that I simply see no reason to concentrate again of the weapon which changed naval warfare forever. Wait for 3M22 Zircon getting to IOC by the end of this--start next year and you may confidently add this too to the list. The issue is a dramatic lag of the United States in hypersonic weaponry and anti-air and anti-missile defense. In other words, the US lost arms race in these and other key fields of military (or dual use) technology. There is simply nothing out there which can compete with something like S-400, not to speak of S-500, forget about Nudol, US has NO supersonic missile weapons, it certainly doesn't have any viable hypersonic technology and I can continue with this list for a long time. Link
Yes, Russia appears to be ahead in Development of supersonic glide delivery platforms, the chinese also claim to be well advanced. What the gap is between the hype and reality is not yet clear. Regan promoted his fancy Star Wars concepts complete with impressive graphics, most turned out to be George Lucas style props.
Chris re this sentence: "The Chinese Government knows that the New Zealand Government knows that participation in WHO events is restricted to member states"- this isn't the case. Entities other than Governments can and are invited to attend WHO and other UN events as observers. It is my understanding that Winston is supporting Taiwan's attendance as an observer. Yes, Australia does appear to be rather too close to the regime of the political version of Agent Orange but lets remember that the UN Secretary General is also supporting a review of how the international community handled the virus.
I lived over there for a year when I was in my early twenties and did a lot of reading about Chinese / international politics etc and honestly I think the writing is on the wall unless things have changed in country. They are too organised / compliant / disciplined. We flip flop around with our democracy that changes who drives the ship every 3-9 years, and everyone has an opinion and the politicians spend 70% of their time on the popularity contest and whatever spare time they have left running the country.
My guess is that if not already, very soon they will be in a position to take us whenever they decide they want to. So honestly, and trust me I am no wuss in life, don't poke the bear in this instance.
I think we're already screwed and it is just a case of when and how, not if. They have a long memory. If we are perceived to have been a friend in the past, I think our (or our children's) future subjugation could be a lot less painful.
The other thing about the Han psyche is that as soon as you have been overcome by your emotions, you have lost the argument. They literally start smirking in your face, "oh silly westerner, cannot control themselves".
You need to approach the topic dispassionately, and look at facts / manage for possible outcomes. This is what I am worried they are light years ahead of the rest of the world in doing, because they have an ability to control outcomes that is significantly stronger than a democratic government.
4th generation NZ, love my country through and through, very well educated. Just providing a different perspective, I would be absolutely devastated if it happened, but realistically it's a major possibility.
People on here saying just tell them to stuff it. Don't be so naive. They have had a single minded plan since the 50s that they have been very carefully rolling out in increasing complexity and intensity. No hand brake"humanist"politics slowing them down. You may have missed the nuances because this is text, but I am extremely passionate about human rights, and righting systemic wrongs etc. I am employing some dry humour in my comments!
I studied at Beijing University. They have far and away some of the most intelligent people in the world. We don't understand them. What we don't understand can destroy us. Don't underestimate what we are dealing with is all I am saying. We don't know how ready they are but I suspect they are significantly more ready than we give them credit for and are just patiently waiting for the right opportunity. They have their country people behind them.
Truly bizarre attitude: "we are going to be slaves anyway so lets not provoke the future owner"?! China needs Western money and markets to survive. They still have US money pouring into the country and would collapse without it. Like it or not (or more likely understand it or not) the US dollar is not an equal in the world monetary system it IS the system.
I'd be wary of biting the hand that feeds you, in this instance China. Perhaps a nibble maybe in order. There would be severe economic consequences for New Zealand if China started holding up logs and milk powder on a regular basis. A switch to other suppliers or doing without is easily achievable for China and would likely be a minor hiccup for them economically. Not so for NZ, particularly with the massive economic fall out from covid-19 that is and will still occur.
That is an interesting perspective.
Neat tool here to explore our trade relationships;
Good find. And yes obviously I'm oversimplifying a lot, and it's not something NZ could do unilaterally, but this narrative of the inexorable rise of China doesn't hold water for me. It's occurring as a result of the behaviour of the Western consumer and Western corporations, there is nothing set in stone about it. They have a lot more to lose than the West if trade dropped to zero tomorrow. No one is going to starve because they didn't get the new iPhone.
Trump may be an absolute clown, but he is not clever enough by half to engage in the web of lies and deceit that the CCP has spun around CV19.
It still amazes most people that the virus can traverse the entire globe and even make it to dear old Bluff. But the most populous nation on earth contains it to one city?? Either the CCP is cremating bodies by the 1000 daily, lying about the spread in China or sitting back quite happy with the results of their labs work? We will never know because we will never get the truth.
With the Ccp everything is possible. They can make hk living protestors with families vanish into no where in a matter of a day. What makes you think they cannot make dead bodies gone within their borders?
I will not be surprise if they are burning people alive and no one dare to speak out on it since they maybe next.
Well, why is it that we all know the CCP lies about Coronavirus? They are no less like clowns than Trumpie. Their own research shows the CCP is just as well respected internationally at present as they were just after the Tianmen Square massacre. All those payments to the Pacific Islands and African countries down the drain. About the only bloke they have left is the Ethiopian butcher running the WHO. As the CCP spirals downwards over the next few years China will not be a fun place to live in.
Thanks for a great article Chris. This split between trade and diplomacy is becoming evident in many parts of the globe, and it is fascinating to watch unfold.
Audaxes comments are close to the only ones worth a mention.
We are in a pinnacle period of global change, and being informed about relevant factors is invaluable.
Being anti Chinese is presumably being pro American. To harp on about Chinese human rights violations, is presumably turning a blind eye to America's. The swathe of comments along these lines are akin to a "my dad's bigger than your dad" scenario. I thought that sort of childishness left the school yard a long time ago.
NZ is of strategic importance, why?
For the 5eyes it's a small patch of ground that facilitates satellite communications, and when you stop to think about the manner in which satellites orbit, it gets pretty easy to see why.
NZ also happens to be one of few countries with relatively easy access to the Antarctic, which regards strategic importance, should be self explanatory.
So how this trade/politics tug of war ensues should be of great importance to all Nz'ers.
For my money, attempting to keep both sides happy, for as long as possible, buys more time to consider a course of action.
WP is the obvious choice to play the part he is playing in this, and Jacinda, along with the entire govt, seem to be doing a pretty good job in the face of enormous international pressures, while at the same time trying to do their best for the nation as a whole.
So, thanks again to Chris, for a timely and well informed article.
I think perhaps the Frenchman had the best rebuttal to your gushing over Audaxes view point:
by Audaxes | 11th May 20, 3:54pm
Just as the US sought and bought Europe into vassal state status. And thereafter seeks to sanction them into submission.
by Lapun | 11th May 20, 7:13pm
My French family thinks otherwise.
It is unwise to make enemies of any major trading nation, particularly at the moment. Now is a time for all the world to unite against this common threat. On the other hand however we are always unwise to align ourselves with any other external powers; particularly nations with bullying and totalitarian tendencies. This applies equally to both China and the USA. As in personal life it is best to avoid bullies and cultivate relationships based on mutual respect and interest. Remember that a large part of the power that bullies have, is the power that we give them. These two countries are continuously demonstrating that all they interested is dominating the world to further their own interests. So in the meantime lets all pull together, but when this is all over lets discretely shift and broaden our relationships to other countries and away from both these bullies.
Love many, trust few and always paddle your own canoe.
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