US payrolls rising, but productivity flat; US trade deficit swells; global airfreight booms; China FX reserves slip; EU grows +2.7%; UST 10yr at 2.87%; oil and gold drop; NZ$1 = 72.6 USc; TWI-5 = 73.6

Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news world trade is up but the Americans are on the short end.

But first, we will get the February US non-farm payrolls report this weekend, and today the precursor ADP Employment Report was released showing strong growth. New jobs are up +235,000 in this report, higher than the +200,000 expected. Analysts are expecting a +200,000 growth in non-farm payrolls but it is rare for the ADP survey to consistently lead the official data, so an upside surprise is the more likely. Today's data may have some analysts raising their bets.

American labour productivity data in the December quarter showed output increased +3.2% but hours worked increased +3.3%, which is not positive. The same data shows labour costs rising +2.5%. The combination of lower productivity and higher costs is likely to spur inflation.

The American trade deficit increased to a more than nine-year high in January, reaching -US$56.6 bln in the month and almost +3% higher than the -US$55 bln markets were expecting. Exports were down, imports were up. The politically sensitive deficit with China rose to +US$36 bln. The deficit with Canada rose to -US3.6 bln. The US surplus in services trade is stagnant.

But in Canada, both imports and exports fell in January, and that lowered their overall merchandise trade deficit, despite the US relationship.

We will get the US Federal Reserve Beige Book survey update at about 8am this morning and if there is anything significant there, it will be updated here.

Meanwhile, global airfreight volumes rose an impressive +8.0% in January from the same month a year ago. The international volumes rose even more, up +8.6%. These rises come after what was thought to be a strong December which showed +5.6% rises on the same basis. The gains came from strong rises in Europe, the US and the larger Asia/Pacific markets.

China’s closely watched foreign exchange reserves fell by -0.9% in February to $3.13 tln, marking the first decline since January 2017. Later today, China will release data on their February trade balance and that is expected to show a surplus of +US$11 bln. Their trade with the rest of the world is largely balanced, except for the US.

The Eurozone GDP rose +2.7% in December quarter of 2017, meeting analysts forecasts.

In New York, the UST 10 yr yield is down to 2.87%.

The gold price has fallen back today, down -US$10 and now at US$1,325/oz.

Oil prices are sharply lower too with the US benchmark down to just under US$61/bbl and the Brent benchmark now just over US$64/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar will start today softer as well at 72.6 USc. On the cross rates we are at 93.2 AUc and 58.6 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 73.6.

Bitcoin is now at US$9.542, down another massive -11.7% from this time on yesterday. This comes after the SEC said cryptocurrency platforms must be registered and regulated.

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The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».