By Bernard Hickey
Treasury and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) warned the Government in December that a growing influx of students and holiday-makers on temporary work visas could be dragging on productivity and wages because most were working in low productivity and low growth occupations.
They also warned that some employers were using the temporary work visas as an easy way to find cheap workers, rather than finding or paying more for local workers who were also suitably qualified. Their point was reinforced by attempts by the dairy industry to keep dairy farm worker categories on MBIE's Immediate Skill Shortage List.
Treasury and MBIE gave the advice in a December 10 briefing paper to Finance Minister Bill English, Employment Minister Steven Joyce and Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse after two Cabinet committees said in May last year they wanted to investigate how the Government's migration settings could improve its contribution to the labour market. A full report is expected back this month.
Treasury and MBIE noted the numbers of temporary overseas migrants with work rights had increased significantly recently, "driven mainly by working holiday-makers and international students." They said a significant proportion of permanent and temporary labour migrants worked in lower wage occupations, "and recent trends show a relative decline in the skill level of permanent migrants."
"Migrants are meeting firm demands for labour and skills, but increasingly in low productivity growth industries and lower-wage and-skilled jobs," they said in the briefing paper, which included a chart showing the number of temporary migrants with work visas had risen from around 200,000 per year between 2008/09 and 2012/13, before accelerating up to around 250,000 in 2014/15.
Chefs, aged care workers and dairy farm workers
"As discussed in STR (Cabinet's Strategy Committee) and EGI (Cabinet's Economic Growth and Infrastructure Committee), the evidence available suggests that the contribution of these inflows to labour market is mixed, with recent trends raising some concerns about the impacts that migration could have on the long-term on the Government's Labour Market objectives," they said.
It published a chart showing the top 20 occupations for essential skills visa applicants, including nearly 2,400 visas for Chefs awarded in 2014/15. The next most awarded visas were for Dairy Cattle Farmer, Cafe or Restaurant Manager, Retail Manager (General), Carpenter, Dairy Cattle Farm worker, Retail supervisor, Aged or Disabled Carer, Truck Driver (General), Registered Nurse (Aged Care) and Winery Cellar Hand.
An MBIE list of the occupations approved for work visas is below:
MBIE and Treasury said almost 40% of the applicants for permanent Skilled Migrant Category visas were former international students on temporary work visas..
They said evidence suggested migrants working in highly skilled occupations, particularly Information and Communications Technology, were closely linked to higher productivity growth through increasing wages and innovation.
Foreign students fared worst
"However, there is an increasing use of temporary and permanent labour and non-labour migration in lower wage and/or productivity industries where there is no strong evidence of genuine skill shortages," they said.
They pointed out recent research on Skilled Migrant Category migrants found that skilled migrants from Asia earned less and were less likely to be employed three years after gaining residence in New Zealand than skilled migrants from Europe, and that residents who had previously been students also fared worse.
"Skilled migrants who initially came to study in New Zealand are less likely to be employed and have much lower incomes three years after taking up residence in New Zealand compared with the incomes of migrants who were approved for residence offshore."
Treasury and MBIE went on to point out the difference between a skills shortage, where demand for skills exceeded supply even when wages were persistently high, and a labour shortage. A skills shortage was more common in innovative and productive industries such as ICT or Health.
"In lower skilled and lower wage occupations it is unlikely that firms are experiencing genuine skill shortages," MBIE and Treasury wrote.
"It is more likely that firms find it difficult to meet their labour needs because of a labour shortage. This is a situation in which vacancies remain unfilled either because firms cannot find workers or because of poor wage and employment conditions...and/or because there are just not enough people in the local labour market -- or willing to move to the location (eg lower wage or skilled dairy farm occupations in Southland)," they wrote.
"Filling migrant labour shortages through migrant labour can reduce incentives on firms to employ domestic workers, increase wages to attract domestic workers, and invest in training and/or capital (eg Technology)," they said, noting also that not filling persistent local labour shortages could negatively affect some industries.
"Filling labour shortages through migration can result in wage suppression, low skilled and productivity equilibrium and displacement."
Dairy industry wanted to keep importing labour
Elsewhere, MBIE included advice to Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse on what skills categories should be retained on or added to its lists of Long Term Skills Shortages and Immediate Skills Shortages (ISSL).
The long-term categories are decided by the Minister, while the Immediate skills shortages categores are decided by MBIE Deputy CEO Nigel Bickle. Once skills are off the lists, employers then have to prove through a labour market skills test that no suitable New Zealanders are available to fill or be trained for the position when applying to bring in a foreign worker. Being on the list makes it much easier to bring in workers on temporary or permanent work visas.
MBIE recommended the retention of telecommuncations engineer and telecommuncations network engineer on the long term list, but declined submissions for airconditioning mechanic and motor mechanic to be added to the list. It recommended adding glazier, metal fabricator, sheetmetal trades worker and surveyor be added to the immediate shortage list.
More controversially, it recommended a range of dairy and beef cattle worker positions be removed from the immediate skills shortages list, "because the qualification and experience requirements for using the ISSL are very low."
"Many migrants have been employed with limited experience, which indicates that the criteria sought by farmers for these positions is low," MBIE said, adding that Dairy NZ and Federated Farmers had made submissions to keep the dairy farm categories on the list, or at least to defer their removal for two to four years, while the Council of Trade Unions had argued they be taken off the list.
The changes for dairy farm workers apply from May 30 this year, which would give time for new work tests to be created with Work and Income. MBIE announced the changes on December 18.
Woodhouse denies wage suppression or skills depression
Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse said employers did not think the Government was letting in too many lowly skilled people.
"They tell me that the processes for having labour market tested work visa holders is a very onerous one and the requirement is for them to meet the market, and that's what they're doing," Woodhouse told reporters.
Woodhouse said he was satisfied the processes for deciding on which areas had genuine skill shortages, rather than just labour shortages, was robust.
"MBIE didn't say there are too many low skilled workers coming in, and they didn't say that wages are being depressed," he said.
"They said some commentators suggest that's possible. There's no evidence to say that that's happening. We're watching that very closely though and the expectation is that employers need to meet the market."
Woodhouse said MBIE periodically analysed the risk of wage suppression, but "there's no evidence that it's actually happening."
He agreed other bank economists had suggested wage suppression caused by large numbers of lower-skilled short term migrants was happening, but MBIE had yet to find evidence it was happening, although "it's a live issue."
The briefing papers were later referred to an exchange between NZ First Deputy Leader Ron Mark and English.
25 Comments
Woodhouse doesn't want to listen by the sounds of things. Sweep it under the carpet, nothing to see here move on.
NZ should be targeting highly skilled migrants in the tech sector however perhaps they are not interested in moving to NZ on low pay with high costs of living.
The work access/hours for international students was deliberately widened/loosened up recently by the Govt in order to incentivise more international students (especially Indian) to enrol at NZ universities etc, so they can earn more and work more hours & weeks while studying. So its part of the incentive - the Govt gets more international fees into the Universities/Polytechs & PTEs - which is all effectively export income for NZ.
While noting that many "universities" which offer "degrees" to Indian students, say, one in homeopathy are also run by Indians who transfer the money back to India. Nearly as great an export income as the Chinese tourist trade which starts with Chinese airlines, and continues with Chinese run hotels, Chinese bus tour operators and of course Chinese restaurants - straight into the pocket of the Chinese economy, or the Auckland bubble.
New Zealand is being taken for a ride, mostly by its own so-called government.
Speak to the young foreign students working a lot of the AKL petrol stations - some of them will tell you the facts. Couple of hours a week reviewing recorded lectures, a lot of the time its just pumping gas.
Did they come here for the mickey mouse degree or the high paying (in their eyes) work? What do you reckon? Any Kiwi with young children should be very unhappy about this.
"A skills shortage was more common in innovative and productive industries such as ICT or Health." And what exactly would Key and Woodhouse not understand about this? Do they want to lead NZ back into a feudal society of landlords and farm hands with their pauper immigration scheme?
This government needs to be removed.
If John Key, as the NZH article implies, wants to position NZ as a terrorism free safe haven for the rich of the world, then he has to call a moratorium on Muslim immigration to NZ - which would be a perfectly sensible and popular thing to do.
Is there anything Key does which is not full of contradictions and logical gaps?
This is the natural consequence of the right-wing, free-market policies that most governments have adopted. Employers would rather pay less than look for innovative ways to improve productivity and are greedy. they are being told by their accountants that they need to make ever larger profits (a fallacy) and don't know how to do this. This has led to new twists on the term slavery. The long term consequence will be a new lower socio-economic class of migrant workers with all the associated problems that are already evident in the UK and the US.
For these workers though, NZ would be like paradise compared to where many of them come from, so who can blame them?
Finally some attention being given to our absurd immigration policies - haven't we (some of us anyway) been on about this for years. Hat tip to Michael Reddell on Croaking Cassandra for his work on dissecting the data.
We had a break away round the country over summer; seemed like everywhere we went the staff were overseas back packer types or "students" with work visas. Used to be Kiwi students saving some money over the summer break doing a bit of restaurant or farm work, retail, picking fruit, tourist guides or pumping petrol.
Now it's rare to hear a Kiwi accent - they've been displaced and under-cut by their own government's policies.
If your industry was experiencing a downturn there was often some options for work in your area (pumping gas for example) that would help you get by - not anymore.
In our area the so called holiday camps have become, to a large extent, work camps for foreigners with camp provided work transport and advertising programs seeking jobs for their guests. No help or any such programs for our locals. We now hear they are even being actively discriminated against by the backpacker lodges. This government seems to see its constituency as third world immigrants, tax dodging multi nationals, property speculators and cashed up foreign fraudsters - sad for them then that they can't vote. But we can.
...third world immigrants, tax dodging multi nationals, property speculators and cashed up foreign fraudsters..
It would be interesting to do a survey of the above people and see how many support the idea of a UBI. Very few I'd wager, except those thinking of investing in doss-houses perhaps. Immigrants with jobs I have spoken to seem to think it an insane idea.
....dont just leave your comments here....email/message/write and harang your local MP. Send a message to any MP who makes an issue - Ron Mark got one from me last night. I don't care what party they are from, if the have the balls to get a debate going, they need to get your support.
This paragraph in Bernard's article (above) must have gone straight through to the keeper
Recent MBIE research on Skilled Migrant Category migrants found that skilled migrants from Asia earned less and were less likely to be employed three years after gaining residence in NZ than skilled migrants from Europe, and that residents who had previously been students also fared worse
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/80800/treasury-mbie-warn-government-big-…
Where do they go? - straight onto the WINZ unemployment heap?
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