Population growth from immigration has surged to a new high with a record net gain from migration of 43,483 in the year to August, according to Statistics NZ.
That is more than three times as many as the net gain of 12,848 that occurred in the previous 12 months to August 2013.
The surge was driven by a big increase in the number of immigrants arriving in this country to live, which increased from 90,329 in the year to August 2013 to 103,875 in the year to August 2014.
Over the same period, the number of people leaving the country permanently dropped from 77,481 in the year to August 2013 to 60,392 in the year to August 2014.
In the month of August the net gain from migration was 4695, equalling the previous monthly record set in February 2003 when a large number of overseas students arrived at the start of the university year, Statistics NZ said.
The biggest sources of migrants continue to be Australia and the UK as New Zealanders return home form the not so lucky country and Old Blighty.
In the year to August 22,594 migrants arrived here from Australia followed by the UK (13,712), India (9622), China (9236), The Philippines (3546), Germany (3408), France (2771), Japan (2038), Canada (1957) and Korea (1715).
Over the same period of time 44,919 people left the country permanently bound for Australia which remains the most popular destination by far for New Zealanders moving overseas.
But those numbers were well down on the 53,904 who left for Australia in the year to August 2012, and that decline helped swell the net migration gain.
In the year to August the country suffered a net loss of 6457 people to Australia, compared with a net loss of 39,956 in 2012. For the August month just 71 more people moved to Australia than came to New Zealand from Australia. In August 2012 this loss was 2820, and in August 2013 it was 897.
Statistics NZ said another notable feature of the growth in migration was the number of students from India coming to this country.
'50,000 by early next year'
In a note about the figures, Westpac senior economist Anne Boniface said she expected the annual net inflow of migrants to peak at 50,000 by early next year.
"Surging net migration will support the housing market and boost spending in the New Zealand economy," Boniface said.
"However, ultimately the current surge in net migration is set to be temporary.
"Improving Australian job prospects next year should both entice more Kiwis back across the Tasman and stem the flow of Australians heading to New Zealand."
Meanwhile, ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown said; "We expect annual migration to peak early next year at around 48,000. But over the past quarter, the level of net migration inflows annualises to over 54,000."
An RBNZ rethink?
Boniface noted that the Reserve Bank had recently downgraded its assessment of the effect immigration would have on house prices, but suggested the latest figures might cause it to rethink its position.
"At its current record setting levels, strong net migration is providing a considerable growth impetus to the New Zealand economy and will still be giving the RBNZ pause for thought," she said.
"Although the RBNZ has signalled it is firmly in wait and see mode for now, it still will be keeping a watchful eye on how the housing market responds to the very strong net migration flows we are continuing to see."
15 Comments
Okay , If you cant beat it ... join it .
Notwithstanding my protestations , I have finally accepted that this tsunami of migrants is not gong to end anytime soon .
Consequently , it also means that our fired up housing market will not end anytime soon, as these people cannot be left to sleep under Aucklands motorway bridges.
So I may even be persuaded to invest in my first ever rental property in Auckland.
... aha .... a sure sign that the market has peaked ... .. the last sceptic has thrown in the towel , and is joining the throng of rental investors ....
Bernard !!!!! ..... 30 % and so much more .... the crash is coming ... probably beginning the day after Mr Boatman signs on the dotty line ...
Partner & I have decided to stop waiting, as National's re-election means little to no change in property market, so we may as well take the risk and load up on ~900k of house.
Going to hurt for the first few years, but hopefully inflation will take care of that longer term and massive correction events do not occur for long enough that we are de-risked by the time they do.
I doubt we're the only ones in this situation (savings, no debt, were waiting for some price changes, but admitted defeat).
Enjoy your victory lap, I guess you guys (Nat supporters) have won. This time :)
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