By Alex Tarrant
The economy grew at half the expected pace in the three months to September, expanding 0.2% as strong construction activity was offset by a weaker manufacturing sector, figures released by Statistics New Zealand show.
The New Zealand dollar fell on the news, from 83.60 US cents before the 10:45am release, to 83.34 USc at 11:00am.
The quarterly growth was lower than readings in the US, UK and Australia, although higher than the euro-area average and Japan, Stats NZ said.
While economists polled by Bloomberg had given a median expectation of 0.4% growth during the quarter, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had picked 0.2%, meaning the reading should not have much effect on its interest rate outlook.
But growth in the first half of the year was revised down, with June’s 0.6% expansion halved, due to lower services activity than previously thought (in the waste management, business services and private administration areas).
March’s 1.0% growth was also cut slightly, to 0.9%.
Growth in 2011 was revised up by a combined 0.7 of a percentage point.
Revisions this quarter also showed the economy ‘double-dipped’ into recession during the second half of 2010. September 2010 quarter growth was lowered from a contraction of 0.1% to a 0.3% contraction, while December 2010 quarter growth of 0.0% was lowered to a contraction of 0.3% as well.
The economy exited a six-quarter recession in September 2009.
Annual growth in the year ended September was 2.5%, the highest annual growth since the year to March 2008, Stats NZ said. That compared with growth of 0.8% in the year to September 2011.
Economic activity in the September 2011 quarter was 2.0% higher than in the September 2011 quarter, Stats NZ said. That was the lowest annual quarterly jump since the September 2011 quarter.
The size of the economy, in current prices, was NZ$208 billion for the year ended September 2012, Stats NZ said.
Construction up, manufacturing & agriculture down
Stats NZ said the main movements by industry in the September quarter were:
- Construction, up 4.5%. Residential and non-residential building activities were both up strongly this quarter, and both were boosted by Canterbury. The upper North Island also contributed to the growth in residential building activity.
- Electricity, gas, water, and waste services, up 4.4%, driven by an increase in hydroelectricity generation.
- Manufacturing, down 1.1%, due to a decrease in metal product and food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing.
- Transport, postal, and warehousing, down 1.6%, due to declines in road and air transport.
- Agriculture, down 2.8%, falling this quarter after higher than usual growth in the first six months of the year.
Meanwhile, the expenditure measure of GDP (also 0.2% for the quarter) showed:
- Household consumption expenditure, which measures the volume of spending by New Zealand households, was flat this quarter (0.0%).
- Investment in fixed assets was down 1.8%. Increased investment in residential and non-residential buildings was offset by a large decline in investment in plant, machinery, and equipment.
- Exports of goods and services (up 4.0%), mainly driven by a 27.7% increase in the volume of dairy product exports.
Annual growth
Annual growth of 2.5% was the highest since the year to March 2008 year.
It was boosted by primary industry growth of 14.4%, when compared to the September 2011 year, Stats NZ said.
“Agriculture was up 23.3% for the September 2012 year, reflecting higher than usual growth in the first half of 2012. Partly offsetting this increase was mining, where activity for the September 2012 year was 2.4% lower when compared with the September 2011 year,” Stats NZ said.
Here's some reaction from economists:
ANZ
At just 0.2 percent q/q GDP was slightly weaker than market expectations (+0.4 percent) but in line with the 0.2 percent RBNZ pick and our own expectation.
· Historical revisions added 3.1 percent to the level of real GDP. However, estimates of (trend) potential output are likely to be revised up by the same amount, meaning limited implications for the Reserve Bank's estimate of the output gap.
· The expenditure-based measure also grew by 0.2 percent. Falling inventory levels bode well for a better Q4.
· Divergence between tradable (down) and non-tradable GDP (up) continues to highlight an unsustainable mix of growth. With the mix of monetary conditions unlikely to change any time soon (rates on hold, currency high) the best NZ can do is to plough ahead with microeconomic reform to stimulate competitiveness and tradable sector performance.
· We’re not jumping to conclusions over softness in Q3. The early part of the year looked overcooked and we’ve seen some payback. Amidst a myriad of structural headwinds and tailwinds, combined with cyclical support (interest rates), we fully expect GDP outturns to remain volatile.
· Growth looks set to remain in a 2 to 2½ percent range. The real issue is identifying the drivers of growth outside of the construction sector against a fickle global and labour market backdrop. This is likely to place ongoing onus on monetary policy support given pending fiscal tightening and the high NZD.
Westpac
Quarterly % change: 0.2% (Westpac forecast: 0.0%, market forecast 0.4%, RBNZ forecast 0.2%) Annual % change: 2.0% (Westpac forecast: 2.1%) Annual average % change: 2.5%
Data summary
September quarter GDP grew 0.2%, and with 0.4% of downward revisions to growth in the first half of this year, the overall picture was softer than market expectations. Annual average growth rose slightly to 2.5%, the fastest pace since the year to March 2008. Growth was hard to come by for the quarter outside of construction, and even that was less than we expected (up 4.5%).
Residential and non-residential building both recorded strong gains, but were partly offset by a fall in infrastructure work. Electricity generation made the only other substantially positive contribution, up 4.4% after a 5.8% drop in Q2. The share of hydro generation, which has a higher value-add, rebounded from markedly low levels in the first half of the year. Agriculture and food manufacturing both fell in Q3. While growing conditions remained favourable, they were less so compared to the stellar first half of the year.
Statistics NZ has made major revisions to the history of GDP, as a result of annual benchmarking, methodological improvements, and new indicators for some sectors. This has lifted the level of production GDP by around 3%; it also appears to have made GDP more volatile compared to the old series, with a more pronounced cycle in the rate of growth over recent years. Implications The result was softer than the median market forecast, reinforced by the downward revisions to the previous two quarters. The NZD fell 30 points to 0.8335 and the two-year swap rate fell 4bps to 2.70% after the release.
However, it was much in line with Treasury and RBNZ forecasts, and certainly fits with the widespread view that Q3 will mark the low point in growth for the year. If we were to take a positive spin on these figures, it would be that the revisions to GDP measurement have made growth quite a bit more cyclical than we previously thought - if +0.2%qtr is the lowest that it gets, that bodes well for some strong recorded growth in coming quarters as the Christchurch rebuild gathers pace.
ASB
GDP increased 0.2% in Q3, softer than our and market expectations. The weaker than expected result reflected payback in many areas of strength seen in Q2, with declines in infrastructure construction and agriculture production over Q3. In addition to the softer than expected Q3 result, there were downward revisions to growth over the first half of 2012. Overall, these results suggest the boost from earthquake rebuilding is not as great as first thought in service sectors and in infrastructure work.
While overall construction activity increased over Q3, there was a decline in heavy and civil construction activity, which mainly consists of spending on infrastructure. This reflects payback from the large increase seen over the previous quarter, perhaps highlighting that some construction projects are quite lumpy. On the expenditure side, this was reflected in the large decline in other construction and plant and machinery investment.
However, rebuilding was reflected in the increase in residential and non-residential construction, in line with the results seen in Q3 Building Work Put in Place data. The increase in building consent issuance recently suggests rebuilding in these areas will continue over the coming quarters. The smaller than expected boost from rebuilding was also reflected in activity in the professional services sector, which was broadly flat over Q3.
In addition, StatsNZ notes downward revisions to services activity drives much of the downward revision to GDP over Q2. While rebuilding has driven demand for professional services, the boost to this sector appears not as strong as initially thought. Another area of downside surprise, from our perspective, was agriculture production. While we had expected a decline from the strength seen over the first half of 2012, this decline was greater than what milk production figures suggested.
To the extent favourable weather conditions conducive to pasture growth boosted milk production over the first half of 2012, production is now easing from these high levels. This drove weaker than expected activity in both the agriculture and food manufacturing sectors. There was a large decline in mining, with StatsNZ noting lower oil and gas extraction activity.
Implications:
The weaker than expected Q3 result, combined with the downward revisions to growth over the first half of 2012, suggest that while rebuilding provided a boost to economic activity this boost is not as great as initially thought. The revisions mean the level of GDP is lower than previously thought and there is consequently a greater degree of slack in the economy. Overall there appears to be much less momentum in the economy than we had previously assumed. We have consequently revised our OCR forecast to expect the first OCR increase in December 2013 (previously September).
We are still wary that the housing market risks triggering stronger inflation pressures than the RBNZ currently anticipates. However, with the NZD likely to hold up, there is the potential the RBNZ uses some macro-prudential tools (capital buffers, core funding ratio, loan-to-value ratios) to try and take some of the heat out of the housing market before first lifting the OCR, which also argues at the margin for a later start.
JP Morgan
The New Zealand economy grew a modest 0.2%q/q in 3Q (J.P. Morgan and consensus 0.4%q/q), with the composition of the report showing the production side hitting a bit of an air-pocket in 3Q in working through some inventory adjustments. It was known heading into the release that export demand was solid in volume terms last quarter, but that mostly was acting to clear a significant backlog of stocks after bumper commodity production in 1H12.
That story was essentially carved into today’s result, with output of primary industries (agriculture and mining) falling, exports on the expenditure side surging, and inventories a very large drag. The surprise relative to our forecasts came in the composition of demand, where the strength in imports was greater than expected relative to its usual sources of non-structures capex and goods consumption. Plant and machinery capex fell a very sharp 17.6%q/q, admittedly after a 10%q/q-plus gain in the prior quarter, but a very large fall nonetheless given that imports were up 2.6%q/q. With goods consumption relatively soft (but in line with our forecast), that left transport equipment capex as the lone channel of cap-ex strength (+10.7%q/q). This was enough to overwhelm the continued acceleration in residential building (+7.4%q/q) and strength in other non-resi building (+12.5%q/q), and pull gross fixed capital formation down 1.8%q/q.
Lastly, fiscal consolidation continues to leave a bigger footprint on the labour market data than it is on government spending in GDP, being growth-neutral in 3Q. On the production side, the drag came from the output of primary industries, which agriculture output down 2.1%q/q and mining down 7.4%q/q. Services output was flat, representing the mixed bag of subdued consumer activity in conventional retail, and continued growth in spending on other services like education, health care, and public administration.
Output of the goods producing industries was robust, up 1.2%q/q, capturing the brisk run-rate of activity in construction (+4.5%q/q) and also utilities (+4.4%q/q thanks to the lift in hydro supply activity that helped depress electricity prices in 3Q). Given that the large mark-down in inventories recorded today leaves the export sector quite well positioned for solid output gains in coming quarters (and the output gauge of GDP is the official one in New Zealand), the real question for the outlook surrounds domestic demand. Today’s release came with revisions, which generally act to make the latter part of 2011 stronger and first half of 2012 softer.
The swings and roundabouts in the revisions pulled down the %oya run rate on growth going into today from 2.6% to 2.5%oya, so are not major, but obviously show less momentum of late. In a sense, this is not surprising given that the data until today had shown essentially no benefit, nor hangover from the Rugby World Cup late last year. The growth outlook continues to be well-supported by building activity, and today’s report if anything consolidates the case that earthquake reconstruction is giving a demonstrable boost to growth. Further, given that this activity is effectively funded through the insurance sector (and in turn by drawdown on offshore reinsurers), there need not be any crowding out of other types of spending.
Nevertheless, the contraction in plant and equipment capex shown today leaves us watchful on broader non-construction capex activity. The RBNZ’s reconstruction narrative requires some spillover to the other elements of domestic demand, including broader business spending and consumption, so that has to turn up at some point for us to conclude that things are on track. In our forecasts, it does so in 2013, and the growth accounting for 4Q similarly is shaping up pretty well so far. Nonetheless we remain watchful on business spending. Today’s ANZ business survey will be interesting on that front.
Economic growth
Select chart tabs
(Update adds reaction from economists').
62 Comments
I'm reading 0.2% this quarter, plus 0.3% the quarter before plus 0.1% the one before that. So 0.6% in total.
The not so fine print also tells an important story of gutting manufacturing (both in its decline for the year) and in declining capital expenditure in that sector, meaning the sector has just about given up trying to grow. Hard to get back once its lost.
Construction activity in the end can only be funded by selling stuff as a country, or selling assets (with huge debt the short term vehicle). We appear to be giving up on the selling stuff bit.
I dont think your maths is much good. The consensus was for a 0.4% growth rate - it came in at 0.2%. Thats 50% lower than expected.
The equivalent for your 3.6% example would be the rate coming in at 1.8% ie the same 50% decline.
So yes it is VERY worthy of comment.
As is the fact that NZ double dipped in 2010 (belatedly revealed) . National will want to keep that one off the burner.
you want math?
approx NZ GDP ~ 200b
0.4% growth on top of 200b is 200,800,000,000
0.2% growth on top of 200b is 200,400,000,000
In reality, the difference between predicted GDP and actual GDP was 0.2% ie a fifth of 1%
if you want to sensationlise the difference, sure, you go ahead and use 50%. But remember, it's the private sector economists who got their predictions wrong, not Treasury nor RBNZ, so make sure you bash the right people
Refer my comments below:
It is a 50% error but percentages do become a bit meaningless when a stat approaches zero...
If the expectation was 0.1% and it came in at 0.0% would you call it 100% error or infinite error? After all it did only miss by 0.1% which is probably the margin of error in the stats.
The subtle art of mis-direction
The June Quarter GDP was originally reported as +0.6%
With todays release, the June Quarter numbers were revised down to +0.3%
Depending on which way you are going with your maths
That is a 100% overstatement (or error), and
That is a 50% revision downwards
You will notice the commentators are discussing reported Sep result 0.2% with Sep Forecast 0.4% whereas if you (reasonably) assume all the same reporting biases and selection and measurement criteria still exist then the comparison should be release to release ie 0.2% to 0.6% Try that. That's what the financial cogniescenti will be doing.
Over 6 months we have had 0.5% growth.
With todays revisions we have quarters of 0.3% followed by 0.2% - doesn't sound too bad (the last could of course have been 0.15% and rounded up).
If we hadn't had the June quarter revised down then we would have had quarters of 0.6% followed by -0.1% - doesn't sound quite so good does it?
Chased up nominal GDP (E) in NZ$miilions
Sep '12 - 208,326 (+2.6277%) -Sep '12 GPE lower than year to Jun '12
Sep '11 - 202,992
Jun '12 - 208,700 (+4.2458%)
Jun '11 - 200,200
Mar '12 - 206,133 (+3.8924%)
Mar '11 - 198,410
Dec '11 - 204,803 (+4.0491%)
Dec '10 -196,833
The GDP(E) SA deflator fell from 1440 @ Sep11 to 1406 @ Sep12, a fall of 2.3611% - why in hell do parliamentarians deserve a pay rise of 1.9%? - read article
Stephen, annual GDP for the March year 2011 was 0.12% below GDP over the 2008 year in real terms despite 4% population growth!!
So 2.2% growth from the March 2011 year to the March 2012 year is nothing fantastic at all, and then just 0.5% growth from March 2012 to September 2012.
I think it is simpler than that.
You form a movement to string up psychopaths and over time the problem (along with a few bankers and politicians) goes away.
http://healthland.time.com/2011/09/20/study-1-in-25-business-leaders-ma…
My understanding is that psychopathy responds to incentives/disincentives.
I am suggesting that our current mix would benefit from change.
Maybe, but I don't think I score highly enough:
Ostrich,
GDP would be a terrible measure, get your head out of the sand!
Here is a nursery poem to explain why, especially for you.
(You can thank me later.)
You want to give pollies more money
for handing out huge contracts to there 'mates' in big biz
-a croney version of keynesy,
or printing money for their mates in finance,
- all quanitive sleazy?
They'll print, discount window and borrow right back,
until all your money ain't worth a brass tack!
Or tax a great deal to spend up large,
on Government contracts
both huge and bombast!
And all the while laughing as their pay goes on up
and your savings diminish, or take home goes pop!
As for grass growth,
you want to link pay to a measure I'm sure,
that has nothing to do with legislation at all
and everything to do with hay in a stall!
Farmers would get their money taken away
and soon could not keep the banksters at bay.
The farms would be sold to Chinese or worse,
some country singer with a face like a horse.
enough of this seussness or my brain will rot
but perhaps, my dearbird, a little less pot?
"If we hadn't had the June quarter revised down then we would have had quarters of 0.6% followed by -0.1% - doesn't sound quite so good does it?"
Exactly what I was thinking. When you put it together with the revised figures for 2010 (have figures ever been revised this late on before?) I can't see this being anything other than fiddling the figures to make the government look better.
They should be saying, "yep we've already had a double dip recession and now we've got a contraction that could be half way to a triple-dip recession" but thanks to the magical ever-changing number generator at StatsNZ they can come out with "oh, there may have been a technical recession a couple of years ago but it's all in the past, nothing to worry about. Look no contraction now, honest. Nothing to see, move along"
And convenient that these figures should come out now when parliament won't be sitting for more than a month. Easy to avoid tricky questions when you're on the beach in Hawaii...
Growth can NEVER be achieved with a dopey set of policies that allow non-residents to acquire property with un-taxed money, obtain annual 10%+ tax-free gains, rent out the properties to tennants receiving WFF and Rent Assistance, and can take that rent out of the country tax-free.
It still makes no sense to me to kill off manufacturing (and have resulting high unemployment) through the exchange rate; that high exchange rate caused by the foreign capital flows to fund the construction.
It would be by no means a free lunch to keep manufacturing/exporting/import susbtitution/tourism viable while lifting construction- at least to a point where unemployment was at the NAIRU type level. The rest of the world's central banks give plenty of pointers on how to manage this.
"Investment in fixed assets was down 1.8%. Increased investment in residential and non-residential buildings was offset by a large decline in investment in plant, machinery, and equipment."
Increase in investing in non-productive assets, bigger decrease in investment in productive enterprises... Just lol.
Whichever way your look at it - manufacturing ended the 30's Great Depression.
As the factories produced the items needed to bring 'rich' living standards to the new 'middle class' - the factory workers could afford to also buy the products they produced.
All as forecast by Henry Ford - whose dream was for of his workers to affort a shiny new black Model T.
All of the above depends on small government interferrence.
Do we know the margin of error?
Also strikes me growth is slowing....or if nothing else pathetic....where is the wailing and nashing or teeth from the priests of growth? oh wait its "we'll see it come back next year, so no need to panic" that is a rinse and repeat for the last 5 years and all over the world....
and the RB will sit and do nothing.
I wonder when they'll finally admit its going to be a grind....just after the 2014 election?
regards
Arguably the Fed hasnt failed, we have not plunged into a 1930s style recession...
IMHO its not the Fed's fault really....best described as being told to quit smoking before you get lung cancer, and not doing so. So you get it and the surgeon operates and you get 5 years before you are dead. its not the surgeon's fault.
regards
The commercial banks sold the fags (with Greenspan's endorsement). Bernanke has been pumping oxygen in, although arguably up the backside (through the commercial banks, so that they can keep selling the fags) in the hope that some gets to the lungs, rather than direct to the lungs (in say tax cuts to the lower income people- because that is arguably not his remit).
Reducing their exchange rate has clearly helped their industry- look at vehicle manufacturing as an example. Pumping in the oxygen seems to have lifted asset prices, and so reduced net debt. That may well have hurt bank account depositors, I accept, although most investors probably have a mixed portfolio, so have had plenty of ups with the asset prices.
Too many Stephens in this conversation, by the by.
You know, you have to wonder at this obsession with growth. I see the Auckland bureaocracy is going all in with a massive borrowing proramme and central Government with their roads. What's it all about? Wind up your debt levels and you are now in a position where you have to get growth just to service the debt. It's a trap. Look at Japan, they've been chasing growth for over twenty years by pursuing these same sorts of measures. It hasn't worked and now they have a monumental problem with government debt.
For a developed economy to risk all in a gamble for more than 2% growth is just crazy. In Japan's or Italy's case with a declining population, few natural resources and an already highly developed economy why do it. I don't think the PTB have a clue about growth limits or how to operate an economy in a low growth scenario. Our out of control debt based money is at the root of a lot of this nonsense. Here' one: If you invested (the equivilent of) $1 at 1.6% interest 2000 years ago it would be worth $100 trillion today. At 2% it would be worth more than the total $ value of everything in the world today. Of course if you borrowed $1 on interest only back then that is what you'd owe!
Anyway, since it's the end of the year, lets have a look at who's the happiest.
1 (even). Panama
1 (even). Paraguay
3. El Salvador
4. Trinidad and Tobago
5. Thailand
7(even) Guatemala
7 (even). Philippines
And the saddest country in the world? It's one of the wealthest and fastest growing : Singapore
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=10…
Pathic recovery followed a serging oil price triggering a recession is what the next 30 years will look like, if we are lucky.
So I'd guess that looking at how Japan has done for the last 20 years would be sensible planning.
Mind you I dont think we'll be taht lucky, but then Im a gloomster and not a realist....
;]
regards
Fours years growth to March 2012: 0.26%PA
Fours years population growth to March 2012: 1.01%PA
GDP per capita since National was elected: -0.75%PA
Absolutely useless effort from a bunch of politicians who probably can't grow a potato let alone an economy (except Maggie of course!)
So good old Jonky and co most definitely need another payrise so they can grow the economy...????
...... yes but they're a less worse bunch of incompetents than Labour , Winnie & the Greens ....
By-the-by , Matt ...... how's that budget surplus Jewelia & Wayne promised you , over in Ashtraylia ? ...... on track are we !
....... ah ha ha de haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa !!!!! ...... joy joy , jingle all the way ...
I don't think the nats are more competent than Labour. I'd put them generally similar, and I'd say Clarke was a more competent leader than Key
Just reflecting, I reckon the Nats would have been better in the boom times and Labour better now. Labour sepent too much in the boom tiems, nats aren't spending enough in the down times
Numbers,Numbers, Numbers.
Key doesn't care. He is off to Hawaii
English doesn't care. He doesn't say much of late. Why? Probably doesn't understand it anyway.
Joyce doesn't care. He has his own rainbow to search for its pot of gold.
Parata. Who?
Wheeler. Keep buying,buddy. You know it's right. They are all off on holiday so they won't know about it.
I liked the number that Bill's bro' Conner has been banging on about.
Twelve.
12 million people to make our economy self sustaining, reckons the chairman of Federated Farmers.
Bring on the immigrants, as long as they stay of the dole.
More people need more stuff and to real growth we'll go.
Who knows prehaps our provincial 'cities' might actually become cities?
The lower tax take has been the writing on the wall for months so this comes as no surprise. Confidence surveys the same - a disconnect between what is said aas opposed to what is actually done. Either the establishment is incredibly naive & incompetent, which is doubtful or they have adopted the insurance industries poplicy of Lie , Deny & Deceive and are manipulating the figures to instill confidence - yes we have growth others have negative growth then reveal a truer figure months later when people have moved on. The issue facing central Banks and Governments is maintaining trust in a fiat currency and government promises that cannot be delivered . When a population finally loses that trust the social unrest the above policy is designed to prevent will be unleashed. Time to realise that most people do understand the problem and given a transparent assessment and a credible solution will accept a workable solution.
yeah, or the mug from PwC, whats his name, Roger? Predicted 3% plus growth at the start of the year.
Many of us cynics here have been very accurate
These mugs are either incompetent, or deceitful - please don't give me the "eocnomic modelling is a hard and imprecise science" crap
"Revisions this quarter also showed the economy ‘double-dipped’ into recession during the second half of 2010. September 2010 quarter growth was lowered from a contraction of 0.1% to a 0.3% contraction, while December 2010 quarter growth of 0.0% was lowered to a contraction of 0.3% as well."
Shhhhhhh..................don't tell anyone until 2 years from now......Mums the word!
Justice - I think you'll find that Westpac were forecasting a 0% number for the quarter so in fact they were too optimistic, or is that what you're saying? Beside, from the almost total lack of market reaction to the number, the market was in fact also expecting a number closer to zero. It's looking back Justice, that doesn't worry markets because all the forward looking indicators were suggesting a poor 3rd quarter just as they are now showing a good pick up in the 4th - but I guess many don't look forward, only back - 2.5% annual growth isn't bettered by many in the western world.
Grant
Here's evidence of my prediction at the start of February for 2% GDP growth in 2012 calendar year - most economists including Roger Kerr were saying 3% plus:
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/57787/roger-j-kerr-says-outside-two-i…
I'll try and dig up my unemployment prediction too
here's the "all so prophetic" Kerr earlier in the year essentially rubbishing benign GDP growth and inflation projections
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/58222/roger-j-kerr-says-downbeat-rbnz…
It's great to access these historical records to see how wrong these eoncomists usually are
To think how much these fellows get paid!!!!
The NZX rose 1.25% yesterday. It is on track to finish the year up over 25%. Bar the end of the world before the 31st of December!
The S&P 500 is almost at 1450 and the DOW is over 13,000.
The housing market is showing signs of life in the US, holding up well in New Zealand, albeit exhuberant In Auckland, summer is here, and the end of the world did not happen, although it is still the 20th in Mexico. I wonder in the Mayans knew of the dateline, and daylight savings time...
Don't worry, be happy! Doomsters and gloomers: have a party, go to the beach, fall in love...? Nah! That will really make you happy.
Happy Xmas holyday y'all.
HGW
"However, it was much in line with Treasury and RBNZ forecasts"
This is a good little game isn't it?
Economists in the private sector, wanting to get a bit of press, proudly predict GDP growth that's never going to be achieved. Then after the actual growth is announced, they blame the economy's failure to meet their ridiculous forecast on the govt of the day and put the boot in, again to garner more press exposure, by publishing the headline:
"Economy grows at half expected pace in Sept qtr"
The problem is guys, it's the non-govt economists that got their predictions wrong - that's the only thing that's worth reporting.
Generally speaking , stockmarkets are leading indicators of the economy's near future performance ......and the NZX has been a world beater this year , racking up an impressive 25 % gain ....
.... and a series of new listings on the NZX , Fonterra notes , Moa Beer , TradeMe .... and very soon , the Mad Butcher ....
Flickers of life , even against a comparatively high exchange rate .....
..... the portents are for a strong economy in 2013 , good growth in GDP .... Let's face it , the country is lucky to have such an excellent Prime Minister , and Minister of Finance . Good on yer Jolly Kid & Wild Bill ...
Happy happy , joy joy !
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.