Slow, steady job growth is predicted for the next two years by a new short-term employment forecast produced by the Department of Labour, with growth strongest in Auckland, Christchurch and in skilled and professional roles.
The outlook forecasts a further 100,000 jobs will open up over the same period from people retiring and leaving the workforce, on top of the 93,700 new jobs it expects to be created between now and March 2014. Some 32,400 of the forecast increase is in the construction sector, reflecting the Christchurch rebuild and expected growth in Auckland, while 33,600 will be highly skilled positions.
The 4.2 percent increase over two years is expected to bring the official unemployment rate down to 5.4 percent by March 2014 from 6.3 percent at present. That’s a higher rate of joblessness than the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 4.8 percent in its latest monetary policy statement.
The new short-term employment prospects survey uses a new forecasting model, and will be produced twice yearly to complement other official statistics and forecasting, and is expected to assist with policy development on skills, employment and welfare issues.
“Our model complements other government forecasting as it reports on 11 regions, 28 industries and 96 occupational groups, and allows us to forecast employment growth breakdowns by region, industry and skill level,” the general manager of the department’s Labour and Immigration Research Centre, Vasantha Krishnan said.
The job growth rate ramps over the two year period, with 1.8 percent growth forecast this year and 2.4 percent in the year to March 2014, although the pace of reconstruction in Christchurch will be a key factor, and will produce a one-off surge in construction sector work. Employment growth in the year to March this year was 1.1 percent, the department estimates.
“Overall, our view is one of slow, steady growth in employment,” said Krishnan.
Agricultural processing, construction and utilities industries such as telecommunications and energy will drive job growth outside Christchurch, and be strongest in highly skilled jobs.
“Opportunities for lower-skilled workers are expected to account for more than one-third of the employment growth over the period,” said Krishnan, driven by the food processing, retailing, accommodation, agriculture and construction industries.
“Employment growth is expected to be strongest in the Auckland region, driven by growth in wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage and business services which are employment-intensive industries and in the Canterbury region, mainly in construction-related activities.”
10 Comments
Thanks Alex.
And Oh dear! - the Department of Labour forecast is based on Treasury forecasts and comes with a caveat:
Caveats
These forecasts are based on Treasury's February 2012 Budget Policy Statement and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's December 2011 Monetary Policy Statement. The risks associated with these forecasts for the short-term are skewed to the downside.
An extract that should serve as a warning to the credulous:
The economic recovery is expected to continue...
The Treasury's latest forecast shows the economy expanding by 1.8% in the year to March 2012, then by 2.8% in the year to March 2013 and by 3.8% in the year to March 2014, once the Canterbury rebuild gears up (see Table 1).
The global economy deteriorated significantly over the second half of 2011. Advanced economies are now slowing down and concerns about sovereign debt and stability are becoming increasingly widespread. In particular, there is concern that the Eurozone will fall into recession in 2012, albeit mild. Emerging economies, such as China, are still growing at a healthy rate, but this growth is also slowing-a trend that is expected to continue. As stated in the OECD's Economic Outlook (November 2011), "the global economy is not out of the woods yet".[2]
Despite global economic uncertainty, prices for New Zealand's exports remain high and businesses remain confident. The Rugby World Cup provided some temporary stimulus for domestic consumption and services exports in the second half of 2011. However, the strong likelihood of slowing trading partner growth and on-going global economic uncertainty are likely to stall export growth.
The Canterbury rebuild will provide a significant boost to employment growth over the next few years. The Treasury's latest damage estimates are $20 billion (up from $15 billion).[3] This will provide a powerful offset to the effects of the weaker global economy. As much of the rebuild cost will be met from insurance claims, this activity is likely to be unaffected by the deteriorating global outlook. However, the precise timing of the rebuild remains uncertain, with the earthquakes in late 2011 likely to lead to further delay.
They are right about the need to replace many baby boomers who leave the workforce.
Average age of people in some professions is over 50 yrs[ due to all the baby boomers doing the jobs]- there will be huge openings in the next years, will be easier to get promotions too.
Matt, agree with Me, as think you will find the average age of those in certain professions is over 50 already, because there are a chunk now in their 60's, that's largely why the Labour Dept projections identify 100,000 in next 2 years (they statistically factor in the likes of your Dad) and the figure will increase every 2 year period over the 10 years. Good for people like myself, and presumably yourself, and Me.
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