Labour leader Jacinda Ardern expects to form a government within the next two to three weeks, but won’t comment on whether the Greens will be a part of that government.
“We clearly have a mandate on behalf of New Zealand to crack on with government formation.” Ardern told media on Sunday afternoon.
“I have said I want to talk with the Greens and will do that next week. But as I say, that mandate does exist for Labour.”
Ardern said she had a “very brief” conversation with Greens co-leader, James Shaw, to acknowledge the party's election "success". She also put in a call to the other co-leader, Marama Davidson.
“We have left it that we will speak again next week. So, nothing further to report there, other than that initial conversation,” she said.
“I have been a consensus builder, but I also need to work with the mandate that Labour has been given.”
Labour's caucus will meet on Monday and Tuesday.
Ardern was confident the party had enough talent to fill ministerial roles.
Asked what Labour’s “strong mandate” meant in practical terms, Ardern signalled Labour would continue on the path it was on in terms of policy.
She said she maintained the Labour-led Government’s Covid-19 response and the Labour Party’s plan going forward were what New Zealanders, particularly new Labour voters, endorsed at the election.
In terms of the economic recovery, Ardern mentioned Labour’s policies to extend the Small Business Cashflow Loan Scheme until the end of 2023, and expand the existing “flexi-wage” subsidy available to employers who hire people "at risk of long-term unemployment".
Asked if the result was a vote for a “progressive New Zealand”, Ardern said, “I think last night’s vote was a vote of confidence in… our Covid response and recovery, and to keep going…
“I’d like to think that New Zealand has always been a relatively progressive country. Even at times, we may’ve had a centre-right government, you still have some of those conscience issues coming through.”
Special votes yet to be counted
The Electoral Commission says around 480,000 special votes (17% of total votes) are yet to be counted. This includes an estimated 66,000 overseas and dictation votes.
Voter turnout is estimated to be 82.5% of those enrolled as at 6pm, October 16. This compares with a final 79.8% turnout of those enrolled in 2017.
Here are the preliminary election night results:
104 Comments
Hope so. The electorate has returned Labour with a clear and independent majority and a strong message that the Greens are not considered as being either relevant or necessary. Labour therefore has the mandate and the will of the people to govern alone. To do so will be one of the most sensible, justifiable and understandable decisions any incoming NZ government has ever made and it will vindicate all those that voted accordingly, and indeed the very nature and the spirit, of MMP itself.
Ardern has already hinted she will take the Greens with her - the "by the people for the people" (ok so I paraphrased ). She won't risk alienating Green leaning Labour voters. She'll also want a scapegoat. I very much doubt she is that much of a risktaker as to shut them out and I definitely think she's waay to canny. She'll be thinking about 2023 in the upcoming negs
ODT has this headline: Labour wins party vote in Every SI electorate. Strategic voting to foobar Green leverage, and it's worked.....
Lesser of two weevils, and all that....
It would not be unprecedented for a government to disrespect those that had given their vote to them, but regardless of what issue that vote might be of, do not believe this particular Prime Minister is of that ilk. In fact, the Prime Minister stands to gain great respect and trust, if she demonstrates the strength of character to honour the very definite mandate the electorate has entrusted to her government
Possibly, traveling round the South, there was deep concern of Greens.
Question if the Day, what does James Shaw do. He may not be at the top table anymore. Or will he?
To pick a turning point, a large part is on Todd Muller, at his collapse, many people saw they were on their own and needed to take matters into their own hands.
The exact reality thus explained Noncents. I remember my father long ago telling me that give a man, a hat, a white coat and a whistle and put him charge of a car park and soon he will think to rule the world. There is an extraordinary presumptuous element to the Greens that borders on deluded and that is what concerns most sensible NZrs and that is what the election result has demonstrated.
If you don't understand the actual issue, you should be doing more listening and reading, so that you incentivize the correct behavior.
What does a "wealth" tax incentivize? Hiding ones wealth? or an immediate halt to saving for retirement? How does it fix the underlying equality issues? or the rampant overpopulation? or the over consumption of resources?
What about a tax on ICVs to incentivize Electric cars? Does it address the mining or rare earth elements? the Fossil fuel powered electricity generation? or the requirement for ongoing roading?
Curled up in that though NC, and worse still, was the intention to empower IRD to be able to search out your assets, right of entry to your home to do so, to make sure nothing is escaping the wealth tax. That to be justified, by some perverted twist of natural law, because benefit fraud is investigated. That is a venal and malignant proposal that strikes at the liberty and privacy of all of NZ. It is not welcome in NZ, past, present and future and it is absolutely shocking that it could be formulated by any political party, let alone one that has been in government.
My tax deductable security system - two 100kg Mastiffs - will ensure there is no IRD inspectors gaining access to my property to count assets, they are more than welcome to contest the idea with my property manager - a third Mastiff, a tax deductible staff cost, Read it and weep Cindy!
NC, seems to be the typical argument from those libertarians/neoliberals these days.
- Reduce tax on businesses because they create jobs but tax those who work for them
- Those without experience running a business aren't qualified to be in government because that's the role of government in society is
- Governments should not tell businesses what to do (more deregulation) but should listen and follow everything businesses have to say
I'd see the Greens involved in government, albeit with a Labour veto on policy.
Current Green responsibilities:
- James Shaw, MP, Green Party Co-leader: Minister for Climate Change, Minister of Statistics, Associate Minister of Finance
- Eugenie Sage, MP: Minister of Conservation, Minister of Land Information New Zealand, Associate Minister for the Environment,
- Julie Anne Genter, MP: Minister for Women, Associate Minister of Health, Associate Minister of Transport
- Jan Logie, MP: Parliamentary Undersecretary to the Minister of Justice (Domestic and Sexual Violence)
I would see Labour re-claiming anything social and core spending and leaving the Greens with Climate Change and Conservation where they have stronger policies.
But whoever holds 'Climate Change' rules the country because there is not one other policy that would not fall under the umbrella of climate change, because just to exist affects the climate by their definition.
And unless the Greens can dominate that policy then they will look like a sell out to their constituents anyway.
If Labour does not go alone, then they have already betrayed those voters that helped them be in that position, so would lose them at the next election anyway, which by definition would mean they would need the Greens support again.
And if they truly think the only way they can Govern for all NZers is by a coalition, then they would have to include positions for National and Act as well.
One option is for them to make an offer to the Greens that "they have to refuse,' so it looks like it was the Greens that walked rather than Labour wanting to Govern alone.
They should go alone, but I'll be surprised if they have the guts to do it.
They seem to be good at managing an external crisis, not from stopping us from getting into one of their own makings.
And totally screw anyone who had the temerity and personal responsibility to save for their retirement any nest egg in cash, better quickly dispose of that worthless paper and join the rush to get into tax free capital gains with no cashflow, then just hold out your hand like everyone else for government support because you cant afford to feed yourself.
But haven’t they been telling us how savers are suckers and the smart people pour every dime into residential property “investment”?
Ordinary New Zealanders love Ardern and despise Collins, and so Labour destroyed National. Learn to live with the fact, mummy’s boys.
100% agree!
Working is optional in NZ.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/123055187/thousands-of-jobs…
However, Ministry of Business, Industry and Employment acting immigration policy manager Andrew Craig said it was expected that more New Zealanders would be available to fill job vacancies “if the sector makes the jobs more attractive”.
Hi OC, whilst I agree with you at one level, having been an employer of said beneficiaries it's nothing but an absolute headache. If they're forced to work all they do is turn up and slack off. National tried the "Work for the Dole" scheme but it was quashed. No doubt you've read the articles recently about 1000s of jobs going begging and the comments here about predatory employers providing low (minimum) wages and no free accommodation - it's the country we live in
Dam right. Kiwis won’t line up to get exploited, so we have to get Islanders in.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/asparagus-grower-ordered-pa…
Well OC, to coin a phrase from an old manager of mine - "we all have choices". He wasn't well liked but he was very good and was also respected. We both know there is definitely a proportion of beneficiaries who have absolutely no intention to come off welfare. They have a state funded lifestyle they are more than happy with especially when they can supplement their income with cash gains - it's just how it is
The sad things about Jacinda, it's her tunnel vision, not flexible & all about popularity contest. When you're a parent to couple kids, it's not easy to do balancing act, one need to be wise & have ability to manage all resources, taking-giving in harmonious way the balancing of yin-yang etc. She's tend to put childish populist remark, there won't be a CGT while I'm a PM, that statement can work as a curse, zealot kind. Things always change, now it's a bit hard to swallow past statement isn't it? - NZ economy keeps on pretending, for how long?
Given the polls over the last few weeks signalled this as a likely outcome, probably little to no effect. Labour hasn't signalled any major lurches and with the majority provided meaning greater stability the market will likely be happy enough. Besides it's more driven by events in EU, US and UK. CS stocks (WHS in particular) might be worth watching after we find out what the Greens get regarding taxation and UBI etc.
You mean the "living wage"? That won't fly either imo. Ardern won't want to ruffle Business confidence that much, especially now that the Round Table is warming to Robertson, Mind you.. never say never. The Benefit increases might get some traction though. I'd also watch the Retirement stocks as well.. closely linked to housing
Triple T Consulting's Sean Keane wrote in a Credit Suisse note:
Financial markets likely to be relieved at lack of dependence on the Greens in the new Labour government.
From a financial markets perspective not much changes in response to the election result. The Labour led government was widely expected to win the election, with the only real uncertainty being whether they would need the support of the Green Party to form a government...
The expectation now will be that Labour will continue to direct more money towards their traditional policy areas of health and education and that they will continue to highlight issues of poverty and inequality. The transfer of wealth via tax and benefits will thus accelerate to some extent but it will be limited by the tax parameters that the government has told voters that it will adhere to. None of this will be new or surprising news to the local market, and this will not move the market dial.
Our overall take-away is that the election result will not be a material market moving event, and that in fact the lack of reliance on the support of the Green Party removes the risk of some of the more extreme wealth redistribution policies making it to the Cabinet table.
This means that for the market the election result will quickly disappear into the rear view mirror and the focus will turn to how the government attempts to get the economic recovery back on track whilst seemingly wanting to maintain one of the most aggressive Covid responses in the world.
I don't think there's enough depth of actual talent in Labour to increase Ministerial positions for her MPs. Finding a new Foreign Minister, Defence Minister, Minister for OT and the other positions NZF had plus taking some strain off Hipkins and Woods is going to be a big exercise and one she'll have to think very carefully about. The Ministerial Portfolio list will be quite interesting and telling as to where her priorities lie imv
Unfortunately they will give it ago.
There will be more Twyfords and kiwibuilds and failed policies but not to worry Cindy will announce a reset when these arrive to the press.
Reset = we could not actually do it and we are not to talk about that policy again after today but in a few years I will outline our success in the particular area and not be challenged on it.
Political Capital
Labour has achieved the political capital needed to "do things" and implement its policies. It should do so immediately and quickly before the capital dissipates
The problem Labour faces is that it doesn't have a lot of depth of talent in its caucus. With the experience and guidance of Helen Clark and Michael Cullen they need to bring its own MP's into the caucus and blood them and train them, and bring them up to speed and give them the experience. It would be a mistake to bring Greens into the cabinet at the expense of its own MPs. Shaw made a hash of Statistics NZ and the census. Genter is too doctrinaire. Ardern needs to steer her own course with her own people. The extreme doctrinaire demands of the Greens would be a distraction
It's funny reading the outrage of the whiny old men desperately concocting reasons to bash Ardern and Labour. For instance, how many years now have they been shrieking about "bloody immigrants ruining the country"? They were the worst thing ever, apparently. "There are too many of them! Close the borders! Put them on the next flight out! NZ for Kiwis! No more [racial slur]! Unless they're rich and buying houses. Those [racial slur] are all right I suppose, but not the [racial slur] and the [racial slur] and the [racial slur]! Filthy swine, don't know our ways, refuse to assimilate!"
Then Ardern closes the border due to the pandemic and, "IT'S AN OUTRAGE! WORST PM EVER! WORST GUBMINT IN HISTORY! The next election's going to be a bloodbath for Labour, mark my words! Kiwis won't stand for this economic terrorism!"
lol
For Labour, this was a victory most resembled 1987, when David Lange and Roger Douglas .....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123126801/election-2020-natio…
Let's hope something similar happens this time - to the sector of our economy that can 'afford' to pay - The Urban dwellers. Because the Rural Sector did its bit for the country last time.
I know of many National voter friends who gave their party vote to Labour to keep the Greens out of power.
Labour are not great at governing and I fully expect homelessness, poverty, crime and hospital waiting lists to continue to increase over the next 3 years but a Green party holding the balance of power would have been a disaster.
I know of many National voter friends who gave their party vote to Labour to keep the Greens out of power
That may have been the case for a small percentage of party votes but the party also lost key seats to Labour and one to the Greens (ouch!).
The Greens still did much better than opinion polls said it would.
Shaw and team will undoubtedly get a seat at the table on the environment and climate change, maybe not on taxes and welfare increases, for the sake of previous support and chance of future collaboration with Labour.
are national and act one party,?
since MMP the two main parties have split with the right (ACT) and left (greens) from each creating a new party and the two main parties moving to the center,
if you look at a lot of things that get passed in parliament it is normally labour and national voting to pass and one of the minor parties opposing
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