US retail and jobs data weak; Canada holds rate; Japan machine tool orders stabilise; Chinese inflation cools; Australian consumer confidence rises; UST 10y at 0.71%; oil down and gold up; NZ$1 = 66.7 USc; TWI-5 = 69.8

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news volatility continues to stalk markets - and economies.

American mortgage applications rose +3% last week, reversing the prior weakness.

Retail sales in the US took a surprising retreat last week, down -1% when a good rise was expected. They are now lower than for the same period in 2019. It's a minor fall on that basis but a more important turnaround from last week's positive year-on-year position.

The increase in the number of job postings, a real-time measure of labour-market activity, has slowed dramatically since late July, and last week stood about -20% below 2019 levels. That is updated data on the official JOLTS data for July which recorded a good rise from depressed June levels.

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate unchanged at +0.25% although it did more to tweak its QE program a little to make it a bit more accommodative.

Japanese machine tool orders in August came in better than the prior month. Even though they were down -23% year-on-year, that pulls back some earlier month declines with only a small -2.3% month-on-month dip and export orders now show virtually no decline.

In China, the American Chamber of Commerce Shanghai’s annual member survey shows US firms are adapting to the volatile geopolitical situation. While hardly any are planning to leave China, a third have found it difficult to retain Chinese staff due to the US-China tensions. What they say they really want is sensible policy from Washington. And they say if they are banned from using WeChat, that could be 'devastating' for their operations there. Overall, the survey was gloomier for their members than the one last year.

China's consumer price inflation eased a little in August, mainly because food prices grew at a slower pace. But beef and lamb prices are still rising faster than most.

China's industrial price deflation is also easing, with three consecutive months of month-on-month rises.

China's overland train trade with Europe is booming with a +62% year-on-year rise to 1,247 trains, a record high for the second straight month.

In Australia, much is being made of consumer confidence “roaring back”. But actually, that is only in the perspective of the last six disastrous months. In fact, consumer sentiment remains very negative across the ditch according to the Westpac MI survey.

And in an attempt to shore up their declining credit card business, NAB has introduced a no-interest Visa credit card although it does have a fixed fee of between AU$10 and AU$30 per month depending on the credit limit you choose.

Wall Street is roaring back today, making up yesterday's losses. The S&P500 is up +2.4% so far today but still not quite back to where it closed on Friday. The NASDAQ is up +2.7% and only making back just over half of yesterday's losses. Overnight, were up about +1.8% on average. Yesterday, Shanghai closed down -1.9%, Hong Kong was down -0.6% and Tokyo was down -1.0%. The ASX200 closed down -2.2% and the NZX50 Capital Index was down -1.3%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is not available from this source today, but seems to be +247,000 higher in a day (another source) which would take the global total to 27,648,000.

Just under a quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +31,000 to 6,528,000 and a relentless rise. Their death total is now 194,500 and still rising at about +500/day (587/mln and +1 from the prior day).

In Australia, there have now been 26,465 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is +91 more cases overnight and clearly the Victorian emergency easing. But there were +9 in NSW yesterday and +8 in Queensland. Deaths however have now topped 781 (+11). Their recovery rate is up to 86% now.

The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps and now at 0.71%. Their 2-10 rate curve is now at +55 bps, their 1-5 curve is at +14 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is now at +61 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is +2 bps higher at 0.93%. The China Govt 10 year yield is now at 3.11% and that is -4 bps lower in a day. The New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is now at 0.57% and unchanged.

And we should note that New Zealand wholesale rates turned negative yesterday and ended the day at zero.

The price of gold is up another +US$7 and now at US$1,946/oz.

Oil prices are lower today, down to just over US$38/bbl in the US while the international price is down to just over US$41/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is firmer today and now at 66.7 USc and recovering nearly +½c overnight. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer too at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up at 56.6 euro cents. And we had some good gains against the yen and British pound. That means our TWI-5 has risen +40 bps to 69.8.

The bitcoin price is a little firmer today, up by +1.1% to US$10,280. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».