Everyone entering New Zealand from midnight Sunday will be required to self-isolate for 14 days, according to new government directives made in response to Covid-19.
This includes citizens and foreigners, but excludes people travelling from the Pacific.
The restrictions will be in place for 16 days.
Cruise ships won’t be able to enter New Zealand until June 30, when this directive will be reviewed.
Movement of cargo ships and planes won’t be restricted.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said this is about restricting the movement of people, not products.
She said the measures will see New Zealand have some of the “widest-raging and toughest border restrictions of any country in the world”.
The existing travel ban has been retained for China and Iran.
There will be new health measures at the border for people departing to the Pacific.
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A range of measures to assist those in self-isolation will be announced next week, as will directives on mass gatherings and a targeted Business Continuity Package.
Ardern said government will work closely with the aviation sector to encourage airlines to remain active in New Zealand, limit impacts on the tourism sector and exporters.
New Zealand’s sixth case of Covid-19 was announced on Saturday. The person infected is an Auckland man in his sixties, who recently travelled to the US.
The man has been unwell and is now recovering at home - hospital treatment has not been required.
Here is a statement from the Prime Minister:
The full Cabinet met this afternoon to make a range of significant decisions to further protect the health of New Zealanders and reduce the threat of transmission of COVID-19 in New Zealand.
First I want to provide some context to our decisions.
New Zealand has to date, relative to other counties, a small number of cases. We have successfully managed to contact trace for every one of those cases, and are in the process of doing so for our latest one. This has been a critical part of our response.
Secondly, our smaller number of cases has helped us to manage them in the right place, and with the right support. The majority of our cases have not required our hospital system to care for them.
The key continues to be leaving our hospital system for those who need it most.
All of this points to one strategy which has guided our decision making - spread the cases, and flatten the curve.
It is not realistic for New Zealand to have only a handful of cases.
The international evidence proves that is not realistic, and so we must plan and prepare for more cases.
But, the scale of how many cases we get and how fast we get them is something we should do as much as we can to slow. That is how we ensure health services are there for those who need them most.
That’s why we must go hard, and go early, and do everything we can to protect New Zealanders health.
That is exactly why, to tackle this global pandemic, Cabinet made far reaching and unprecedented decisions today.
As of midnight Sunday every person entering New Zealand, including returning New Zealand citizens and residents, will be required to enter self-isolation for 14 days. Everybody.
The Pacific are exempted from this measure, though anyone from these countries will be required to automatically self–isolate should they exhibit any COVID-19 symptoms upon arrival in New Zealand.
These restrictions will all be reviewed in 16 days’ time.
Alongside Israel, and a small number of Pacific Islands who have effectively closed their border, this decision will mean New Zealand will have the widest ranging and toughest border restrictions of any country in the world.
We are also encouraging New Zealanders to avoid all non-essential travel overseas. This help reduces the risk of a New Zealand bringing COVID-19 back with them.
We accept that for New Zealanders currently overseas this is a stressful time and we encourage any New Zealander needing consular assistance to contact the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
In addition to restrictions on air travel we are also taking firm measures on cruise ships. As of midnight tonight we are issuing a directive to all cruise ships not to come to New Zealand until at least 30 June 2020, at which time the directive will be reviewed.
I want to be very clear - these measures are about people, not products. They do not apply to cargo ships or cargo planes or to marine or air crew, and we will be working to ensure we keep sea and air freight routes open for imports and exports.
In short, no one needs to conduct a run on their supermarket. It’s worth remembering that we’ve had travel restrictions on China for over a month, and those supply routes continue.
We are mindful that some items that come into New Zealand travel via passenger flights. That’s why support, where needed, will be provided to ensure that essential air freight like pharmaceuticals continue to be shipped into New Zealand.
We did not take these decisions lightly. We know these travel restrictions will place significant strain on the aviation industry, and we anticipate some routes will reduce or cease for a period of time.
As such the Government will work closely with the aviation sector to encourage and support airlines to remain active in New Zealand so that we can re-bound from the restrictions quickly and not have significant impacts on our tourism sector, exporters, and economy.
In addition to these measures the Finance Minister will also announce an economic response including the business continuity package on Tuesday.
We are also stepping up our actions at the border as a key departure route to the Pacific. New Zealand has a huge sense of responsibility to support our Pacific neighbours.
As such strict new border exit measures for people travelling to the Pacific will be put in place and include:
- No travel for people who have travelled outside of New Zealand in the past 14 days,
- No travel for close or casual contacts of a confirmed case.
- No travel for anyone who is symptomatic
- Health assessment including temperature check
Taken as a whole, the border measures we are taking today will mean significantly more people will enter self-isolation, and supporting and facilitating that to occur is critical.
We are already registering all travellers into New Zealand, and Healthline is monitoring the self-isolation process.
Today we instructed officials to step up enforcement of self isolation through measures such as spot checks. It is worth mentioning though, to date more than 10,500 people are or have successfully self-isolated in New Zealand. People know that it’s in the best interest of their community and they’re pulling together to look after one another.
After all, the combination of restricting the virus coming here and isolating it when it does are two of the most important steps we can take to avoid community outbreak.
Given self-isolation is so important, we want to make it as easy as possible.
As such the Government will be introducing a range of measures to assist with self-isolation.
Expect more on this early next week.
We will also increase community support to those unable to support themselves in isolation.
In addition to these measures the Finance Minister will also announce a business continuity package next week, the Health Minister will announce a suite of additional health measures to scale up the responsiveness of our health system to the virus and a public information campaign will be launched.
Ultimately though, the best protection for the economy is containing the virus. A widespread outbreak will hurt our economy far more in the long run than short term measures to prevent a mass outbreak occurring.
These measures, while disruptive, are needed to make the space we need as a nation to prepare and manage the spread of COVID-19.
We all have obligations to limit the spread of the virus and basic health measures is are the heart of that.
However in order to limit the risk of community outbreak when people are in close proximity to each other we will also be announcing further guidelines on mass gatherings. For now, Pasifika and the 15 March Memorial have been cancelled.
The guidance we will be developing more broadly on mass gatherings will be based on the following criteria:
- Large numbers of people in close proximity
- Events where people are more likely to be in physical contact
- Events where participants have travelled from overseas
- And non-ticketed events, where for instance there is no seat allocation making it difficult to contact trace
Again, advice and criteria on mass gatherings will be released next week. For those who need more immediate advice, they should contact their public health unit.
In conclusion, we have two choices as a nation. One is to let COVID-19 roll on, and brace.
The second is to go hard on measures to keep it out, and stamp it out - not because we can stop a global pandemic from reaching us, but because it is in our power to slow it down.
I make no apology for choosing the second path. New Zealanders public health comes first. If we have that, we can recover from the impacts on the economy, the impacts on tourism, and the impacts on our airline.
Finally, this is an unprecedented time. While we don’t have community transmission here, now is the time to prepare. And we can all play a role in that. So here’s my request to New Zealanders:
- Wash your hands
- If you don’t need to travel overseas, then don’t. Enjoy your own back yard for a time.
- Wash your hands
- If you’re sick, stay home.
- If you sneeze, do it into your elbow
- Wash your hands.
- Stop handshakes, hugs, and hongi - I know this is counter to who we are as a nation, but the best thing we can do right now to show love and affection to one another, is to switch to the east coast wave.
- Please be mindful of the older citizens in your life. Check in on them, but if you’re sick, keep your distance
Finally, we are a tough resilient people. We have been here before. But our journey will depend on how we work together. We are taking every measure we need as a government, and we ask that you do to.
We all have a role to play. Look out for your neighbour, look out for your family. Look out for your friends.
371 Comments
Don't take it too seriously. Due to the memorial cancellation today she needed another opportunity for a global photo OP. This was another declaratory, demonstrative yet meaningless gesture. Something she's become a master of. Big on perception, very light on detail. For example, HOW will it be policed. It can't.
And also, a bit convenient that it's fruit harvest season and we need those islanders AND unfortunately lots of islanders do min wage jobs which can't be done at home or they can't afford to or their employers won't allow them to.
Cannot believe more people cannot see her concerned face for what it is.
Because it is a very stressful time and people aren't thinking straight and that comes out in different ways in people.
What has just happened hasn't had time to sink in and grasp the consequences of the big call. Have a beer or ten and wait and I'm guessing we'll see some chill. You've come my direction and I've chilled and headed in yours after this call. Let them have a vent and not have to back every statement up with facts. It's just a release sometimes because if you said it at work or in public, you are a tinfoil hat M.F#^k'er. Here at least some get it and it's not your rep on the line. Some on here are exposed to some serious risk and that freeks them out.
They want need to because it just the first step.
The move to self isolate for 2 weeks is just to soften us up.
Give it a few more days max 2 weeks and we will move to full shutdown the same as all other countries with a brain as we cannot handle importing too many cases before our hospitals burst at the seams.
Also all vistors must present full travel insurance on arrival as the costs could be huge if we start importing hundreds of cases.
Agree what concerns me is we will go the way of the USA who are now starting to test and finding cases everywhere.
We need to start mass testing everyone with symptoms even if they have not traveled as I have heard people saying they have all the symptoms but refused a test and keep a list public of how many tests done so we can see they are being proactive.
We're rubber ducked. Nobody is taking it seriously. The cleaner at work told me her husband is in quarantine because someone at the BMW factory tested positive for coronavirus. If he has it, then she has it, then I probably have it. A half arsed quarantine is no match for an R0 of 4.7-6.6.
Got any credible sources for an R0 of 4.7 or higher?
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1
The Los Alamos National Laboratory is no amateur academic institution. They used empirical data like satellite imaging, and translated health ministry documents, rather than relying on government propaganda. LANL also has a good history of getting R0 correct with Ebola. This R0 is consistent with obvious observations of what happened in Wuhan, Italy, and on the Diamond Princess.
Not sure. According to the German health ministry a category 1 contact, which mandates two weeks of quarantine, is brought about by 15 min of face to face contact with an infected person. You can get 5 years prison time for breaking quarantine. Being in the same room as someone with coronavrius makes you category 2, and then two weeks of quarantine are "recommended". I guess he was cat2.
people ridiculed trump for his about face and outright lies. and rightly so.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-messag…
Another sexest comment, that shit dosen't wash anymore mate pull your head in.
Moving on... less than a week ago you were giving me and others shit, that it was too early. Now somehow with one more infection and no community transmission, it sounds like it was all your idea. You've changes your tune at a rapid rate of knots and pushed blame elsewhere. Anyway no hard feelings, as it's worked out the way I and others called it and we may have a beer or ten one day and laugh about this.
Come bloody on mate. Any bugga with half a brain that wasn't following mainstream media knew what was coming and come fast and was concerned.. except you that stated it was all under control, too soon yet, chill you bitches and whingers. Now you would think that you called Aunty J personally and gave her the nod.
You mentioned the other day that you were selling some machine or such. I could take a guess that while selling that machine you may here " yeah, I don't kno. Maybe with the present viruses and stuff maybe we dont need this machine". That could be playing out as you getting pissed at people worrying about the state of play on here. We all have vested interests that impact our view, mood and more without realizing.
The bigger picture, could pay bigger $'s in the long term. Largish land area with good internet where you can live and free from the WiFlu. It's a brilliant move that potentially bring in much needed money.
Park your $'s in NZ and ride this out.
https://www.immigration.govt.nz/knowledgebase/kb-question/kb-question-1…
I have several pilot friends, so they can do 1 long haul flight, stay there 3 nights, fly back then they will have to self isolate for 14 days? Same for all the flight staff, can't work for 14 days? Well the AirNZ is going to run out of staff real quickly, I guess they won't need to fly many planes either...
Thanks for the info I will check with them. I do know that long haul staff are not allowed to fly back before a stand down period of at least 48 hours… sooo all the flying staff spends at least 48 hours in foreign counties then fly back to NZ …and do not self isolate...
Several reasons off the top of my head.
A significant number of people are about to take temporary pay cuts, reduced hours or outright lose their jobs.
This will ripple through the economy. Recession.
A significant number of dwellings focused on the short stay tourist market are going to be converted to rentals.
A big drop in inbound migration is likely to occur.
How many Chinese students are no longer in rental market ( I am not sure but I guess it was large number).
How many Air BnB do we have in NZ (37000) thats a lot of property that may need to be sold which may be the difference between shortage and over supply.
I have noticed a number already on market.
It will be interesting how many over leveraged people need to sell now with the unknown timeframe for tourism to rebound if ever.
Also banks are going to be looking very carefully at valuations and buyers job security.
And the big one how many FHB now have lost on kiwisaver and have way less deposit than last month.
I wonder when purchasing is kiwisaver still in sharemarket and could cause a number of collapsed deals in next 30 days.
Brock, as much as most people wish/wanted of such correction? - tough luck for NZ, When most of our politicians, RBNZ team, RE Brokers, Bankers are all property moguls.. very minimal can be done there, as their sub-conscious is to maintain de-facto/'stability reason' etc. - In imaginative way, for it to happen in the future? - when new legislation of lowering voting age, more young generations vote for significant/revolutionary changes, more the current de-facto voters into progression being cleared by Covid19-22 - .. again it's just an imagination.
BL - she has just won the election by making a hard decision.
The doom and gloom is the background virus reality which is not anything to do with her.
In your quiet moments ask yourself how hard this must have been for her and whether any of the opposition could have made it. As per her parliamentary speech during question time on Tues or Wed the requirement for her was looking after the health of Kiwis, (not someones housing or share portfolio). Yes there is an element of triage in there but she has my admiration.
Australia has travel bans from places. We have 'please self isolate'. Saudis, Danes have stopped travel altogether from many places.
The 'toughest in the world' thing is a classic example of how something JA says is repeated and repeated uncritically despite it being patently untrue. This is not the first time but god damn if they won't ask now, then when.
Fritz
Despite all the care, support and love your parent/s and grandparents have given you I trust that you now have the balls to tell them that you couldn’t give a sh*te about them as you are just more concerned about your self-centred interest.
Hopefully your comment was made in jest, but if so not particularly clever nor adding to reasonable discussion.
Your comment is about the third I have seen in the same vein in the past week or two; it smacks of being self-centred but fortunately I know that it isn’t widespread among the younger generation; but you do a dis-service to your generation.
Cheers
Irrational.
Such a tiny percentage of the population die from this. You make it sound like 10% of the elderly population are going to die, as if a huge percentage are under risk.
Irrational. And pathetic.
Btw, you don't care about the tens of thousands of jobs that are about to be lost, mainly young people.
Ps. My job is very safe. But I care for others.
"You make it sound like 10% of the elderly population are going to die, as if a huge percentage are under risk."
They are..
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demograph…
or for the optimistic side of the argument, south korea:
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-south-ko…?
My thoughts are that dying sucks regardless of how it happens but it seems intuitive that dying young sucks more than dying old. There's a cost to preventing COVID-19 deaths, just like there is a cost to preventing other causes of death, I wonder how the comparative costs stack up. Are we as a world about to 'invest' more in preventing the deaths of the elderly than we do in preventing causes of death that are less discerning?
IF you think this is going to harm the economy, imagine what would (and maybe still will) happen when this bug spreads and we lockdown Auckland, all of it, like Wuhan. People screaming to lock the borders down earlier were overreacting, at that stage most countries didn't have outbreaks.. thats changed, our response had to scale to match the threat.
It's the correct call Fritz. The implementations of ot are only just starting to tick through the grey matter. Safe haven, NZ could become a place to park your $'s and take an extended holiday, keep mulling it over a lot of positives.
We're in a different ball game now. No lock down's in NZ just to start with.
PH I am not sure.
Recent comms from National has largely been about testing, nothing much on border control as far as I can see. I stand to be corrected.
A similar tory govt in Aust has shown how constrained they are by business interests and all they have come up with is restricting groups to under 500.
In the short term there are apples to pick in Hawkes Bay. We have low debt and we become a safe haven that attracts money and trade. Buy something from NZ, little chance of infection off the package or product. NZ still working while a lot of the world on lock down, . .
It will be far higher than that. Average sickness in a large firm is >15% on a given day.
This will be also be consolidated. One diagnosed case in the owrkplace and all would be isolated. I would expect that over 1/2 the workforce could be out on any given day. If we lock down completely like Italy, then obviously we are up near 100%.
Precautionary Principle, Yvil, red flag in front, carried by a minion at walking pace. Great Green employment prospects, although knowing the state of tertiary ed atm, it would probably need an expensive Certificate to be attained before being considered Eligible to carry that there flag. Oh, and an Elfin Safety briefing before every outing. Cannae be too careful, y'know....think of the Children.
no, one is a one off thing, once we get past the first 6 months of Covid-19, either we will have herd immunity, or we will have medical advances that make it managable. And its not a few hundred lives, its thousands in NZ, and 10s of millions worldwide.
Even with this action, NZ is still going to lose thousands of live to covid-19 most likely. It will get through.
"Even with this action, NZ is still going to lose thousands of live to covid-19 most likely. It will get through."
That is only the case if community transmission starts. The whole point of this move is to make sure that it doesn't and allowing up to continue our (so far successful, by luck not management) containment "stamp out" phase.
It is possible that NZ dose not get community transmission, that is at least the idea of the inward bound 14 day lock down. We ride it out and attract business from arround the world since we are a safe zone. Pleanty of people with enough money to fund a year in NZ. $'s for extended visas or business visas.
While the world burns we stay simi insulated.
Possible, but unlikely. the 14day thing covers most, but not all cases of covid-19, and there are still going to be contacts with people between the aircraft door and their front door where they could pass it on, and without a guard at teh door of every house there will be some that breach self-isolation.
Surprised by those comments from you Yvil .
Your putative 20kmh restriction would save tens or hundreds of lives.
Letting the virus in would kill tens of thousands - while also crippling the economy in a much worse way in the process.
The new measures offer no guarantee and those things may still happen - but we owe it to ourselves to make the most of the chances our geography offers.
Balmy comment of the day.
Who do you think is going to be in the mood for traveling around the world at the moment? This is a WORLD WIDE thing FYI.
Have you not thought, it is looking fairly innocuous because of actions being taken? We still have NO idea how this thing will pan out, and to posit that we should just let it go for it, is pretty damned dumb IMHO
Fritz. You are now in charge of deciding who lives and who dies. Look them in the eye and tell them and their families straight. I would say it would be the worst mistake of your life for you to stand infront of me and say my kid, wife or me that they / I'm getting the chop to save the economy.
If hypothetically 10% of the population contracted it (not unreasonable given that is similar to seasonal flu every year) that’s 480,000 people. If 20% of those need hospitalisation within a 4-6week period (on top of the normal winter sick people), that’s 96,000 people potentially needed intubation and a ventilator all at the same time. The death rates will quickly climb.
Indeed, and credit just evaporated for most workers.
But how are all those people going to Instagram their glamorous lifestyles now they effectively can't travel overseas? Does standing next to bubbling mud making a peace-sign look good enough when you're a local?
Asking for a friend
Crazy. 250,000-500,000 annual deaths from the flu EVERY year. CV deaths so far 5,000 or so. If you’re a conspiracy theorist, then call it 10,000. Likely to die down by May, and warmer northern hemisphere temperatures. The cost to the economy is going to be huge and unwarranted. Watch out for more decisions like this going forward every time there’s a “crisis”, so the govt can roll out more anti-freedom laws and regulations. 1920s and ‘30s deja vu...
agreed -- and at some point soon the restof the world will realise that - but for now all governments have to be seen to protect their people!
this global recession -- which it now is -- will see millions out of work and pushed back into poverty - some industries will be decimated for years to come -- others wont recover at all --
I dont mind the ban -- if it was total -- but half a ban is no ban at all -
Expect world leaders in four weeks time - to accept it cant be contained - and decide to return everythgin to normal -- which will be just enough but too late -- global recession - but not the great depression!
Um, im not a medical professional but I need to mention two concepts to you to apply to your comment before you press the delete or edit buttons. Immunisation and herd immunity. Let me know if that is not sufficient for you to land in a different spot and we can look at some other best practice public health measures to manage pandemics like flattening of the curve or restricting community transmission.
For all those calling it an overreaction you really need to listen to those working in some of the world's best hospitals in Northern Italy.
There is no way to deal with the sheer ferocity this thing takes over. The general flu already burdens our system. Rapid increases arriving at hospitals daily requiring intubation will lead to others being unattended and resultant deaths. Slowing it down is the best path.
Thankfully some of the stupid people on here are not running the show. Finally some action from Jacinta but really only instigated hours after Trump made his so still following and not leading. Self isolation is all great in theory but how many people are really going to stay home ? those in isolation now exceed 5000, its impossible to police it now let alone in a couple of weeks time.
Kudos to Lianne Dalzeil.
A couple days in South Island have worked wonders. And fixed the medicines on planes - the 5day problem.
The change in PM and language is remarkable. A remarkable change, clearly not her own work.
https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-national/cruise-ships-banned-all-o…
The PM says our pandemic which hits hard and fast must be dealt with by "flattening the curve" to have the rate of cases in the right place- either at home on in hospital if needed.
"We must go hard and fast."
She urged people there was no need for anyone to "take a run on their supermarket".
Thanks Lianne, you gave a polished performance on sky news fronting the memorial cancellation. Great contrast.
Lianne has talent could definitely front as special principal minister or more for medical crisis
(assuming there is nothing to the SFO investigations).
These are testing times.
This is a miss:
We have significant capacity for testing, Ardern said. "It is there and available." There are enough resources for 550 people to be tested per day.
Medical practitioners would use their clinical judgement when deciding who needed to be tested, the prime minister said.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120279430/coronavirus…
Re LD, read what I wrote re SFO.
(What other talent have Labour got?).
Said so hours ago on the weekend briefing thread.
It's been a tuff week for PM. She was so determined to run with the memorial, but LD was good fronting for cameras and closing it down.
And the language she is using now is a significant departure from what and how she usually speaks. The contrast with the on camera banter she had Paddy Gower is staggering. Hope Paddy gets tested.
Whomever has been influencing her, well done and keep moving her in the right direction. If its LD or whomever, well done to them.
Course, you know, it didn't have to be like this.
Singapore eg.
yes because when i have paid thousands of $$$ for my trip of a lifetime -- i will spend two of the three weeks alone in a hotel room in one place --- Get real !!
If we are going to do it -- and i am ok with that -- then do it properly - -stop all short stay visitors -- only allow returning Kiwis -- and enforce a quarentine for them --- advise anyone who leaves NZ that this will be the case - so they can make an informed decision on their travel plans
No, not too late, pretty much nailed it really. the Italian ban should have been expanded earlier, but the growth in USA, Europe (except Italy) and Australia is really only just kicking off. From now on is when there is going to be significant risk of importing cases from those places, it hasn't been a significant risk up till the last week.
" pretty much nailed it really." - too early to tell - do you not think ? I suspect it is in fact too late ; would love to be proven wrong on this one.
Tell you what - if we are still under 1K cases by election time I might even vote Lab - first and likely last time in my life.
This new virus is a slight mutation of SARS, such a slight mutation that it cannot be categorised as a new virus but simply a new strain. And clearly a more contagious strain. Read the WHO report. Read the Nature report. This is SARS2.
So now we know what the virus is. ie SARS go and look at the mortality rate of SARS. It killed 55% for people over 65 that it infected. And between 9-15% globally on average. And SARS was halted in its tracks and only ever infected less than 9000 people globally. But we are way, way passed that now. So no, this is NOT comparable to flu or road deaths. If this infects anything like the percentage of the population that it is showing the potential to do, which it is capable of doing, make no mistake... then our older population could be wiped in half. If we are lucky, that won't happen but this won't just be about luck, it will be about how our governments manage. How our health systems manage. China reacted in a way that most countries are not able to. If global governments can react with the same degree of organisation and determination maybe we can stop this virus in its tracks. Maybe.
Whoever and wherever you are, steeped in denial about what this is, read the following links and wake up! This is not a drill. This is a virus that has potential to wipe out half of all the grandparents it infects. You may welcome that, you may hate boomers, or even our whole species and think this is a blessing for the planet. I'm not even commenting on that or any politics of any kind. But just take a moment to consider the emotional pain and loss that will occur if we lose that many of our parents and grandparents in this pandemic and then please think about displaying a bit of empathy and compassion. Forget about your investments and income. Helicopter money can and will come. Read the links and for the love of god, show some respect for the grief and fear that people across the world are facing. Human pain and anguish is not a joke and its not panic. Its real and justified and you are being cruel and heartless in dismissing it.
"From a risk communications perspective, using the name SARS can have unintended consequences in terms of creating unnecessary fear for some populations, especially in Asia which was worst affected by the SARS outbreak in 2003.
"For that reason and others, WHO has begun referring to the virus as “the virus responsible for COVID-19” or “the COVID-19 virus” when communicating with the public. Neither of these designations are intended as replacements for the official name of the virus as agreed by the ICTV".
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technic…
"On 11 February 2020, the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) announced that according to existing rules that compute hierarchical relationships among coronaviruses on the basis of five conserved sequences of nucleic acids, the differences between what was then called 2019-nCoV and the virus strain from the 2003 SARS outbreak were insufficient to make it a separate viral species. Therefore, they identified 2019-nCoV as a strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus"
:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0695-z
"The likelihood of dying from SARS in a given area has been shown to depend on the profile of the cases, including the age group most affected and the presence of underlying disease. Based on data received by WHO to date, the case fatality ratio is estimated to be less than 1% in persons aged 24 years or younger, 6% in persons aged 25 to 44 years, 15% in persons aged 45 to 64 years, and greater than 50% in persons aged 65 years and older."
And just for the record, I was a Clinical Ward Manager in a London hospital when the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic was announced. I was responsible for all the patient and staff sickness protocols, all the equipment and medicine ordering, I had a 1 year old baby at the time and I didn't panic or worry at all. I read the data that was available and knew, that whilst prolific, the Swine Flu pandemic was not lethal.
This is NOT a like that. It is not like seasonal flu or Swine flu. This has a much higher mortality rate and we have no immunity to it.
I'm not someone to panic on a whim. I have lost money on investments this week. Our pensions have been decimated already. I don't care. I care that we do what we can to stem the potential loss and pain of this pandemic. And selfishly, I care that my kids don't lose their grandparents.
Quite possibly. But i'm not a virology or epidemiological expert. Are you? The SARS published mortality rate, at its lowest, is 9.6% and still 50% for people over 65. I could be wrong by half and still scared shitless about the level of deaths we could face, considering how contagious this is.
So you work in healthcare, don't give a shit because your job is safe? My son is in hospo and losing his job is a real possibility.
No I am not an expert but experts are saying infection numbers are grossly underrated, doesn't take a genius to realise mortality rates are also grossly exaggerated if that is the case.
I disagree, I can't even quite fathom the mind of someone who can be watching this unfold, have read the links I posted and still be dismissive about the devastating potential of this. There is no way the governments of the world would be taking this action on a whim. This is not just one government either, it is all governments, ones on the left and right.
I don't work in healthcare anymore no. I run a global company, mostly european and earn in foreign currency,. We lost 5 clients already just in the last 48 hours and are bracing for a major loss of income. We bought a house last April, so will probably lose capital there too. None of that is going to make me rage at Jacinda or maintain some epic cognitive dissonance about the potential of SARS2.
If effective, todays decision will just delay Covid-19s New Zealand peak outbreak 2-4 weeks closer to the general election. Whether effective or not, it will cripple several industries, and push us into recession before we even have substantial numbers of Covid-19 cases. We now have the worst of all worlds, a domestic recession before we even have community scale outbreaks of Covid-19.
I would be interested to hear from people commenting critically whether they have any coin in the game like tourism interests, large prop portfolios etc.
For the record my wife works in the tourism industry, I am largely retired with some normal investments. We have /will be affected negatively but once again I am proud that we have JA
Agree completely about the world recession. However this decision this has brought forward and deepened our domestic recesssion. Job losses in tourism which were being considered for next month, will happen this week. Our recession has just got worse, and earlier, than it needed to be. The action won't have any meaningful impact on the spread of coronavirus, we will have a significant peak in winter or early spring anyway. The current testing regimen is not up to catching this early unless every patient steps off a plane from a hotzone. I write the last sentence as a doctor with knowledge of possible cases which Public Health asked my colleagues not to test. We'll be going exponential in our case count at some stage in the next six weeks.
Nice to hear from an insider. The quote of '550 tests a day' upthread would cover no more than two B737-800's...so that lack of test capacity is the Achilles Heel of the whole thing. And the evident ability of the virus to transmit via asymptomatic warm bodies means that, absent testing everyone arriving, there's a good chance that only a fraction of transmitters will ever be identified.....to repeat an earlier comment of mine, the sequence is case, case, Cluster, Cluster, BOOM.
I don't see any country staying afloat, or prosperous, in the manner we are currently accustomed to. I think Jacinda had it right in Parliament - lets try and save lives first and worry about the economy later. If we can prevent total local lockdown, then we will at least maintain domestic activity until the rest-of-the-world starts up again.
Italian cruise ship in trouble in Hobart.
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/coronavirus…
Have a look at its recent NZ itinerary (7th Jan 2020 cruise)...Auck, Tauranga, Napier, Wellington, Fjordland)
https://www.cruisemapper.com/ships/MSC-Magnifica-636?tab=itinerary#itin…
Bagrie 'A recession is now inevitable. The question is how bad'
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…
This could actually bring in a few tourists. Those who have the time to do a 14 day self isolate , and then feel they are in a very safe country. If things get really bad in Europe and the USA, there could be a lot of them . Look how many arrived before Y2K, in short a lot of either paranoid or mildly delusional rich people.
No-one has any idea how long this could go on. Very few people are going to throw money away on frivolities at the moment, and not being able to get cover from insurance for anything down to the virus, you'd have to be off your rocker to be traveling under those conditions
Theres money to be made in others misfortune.
UNICHEM pharmacy in Orewa is selling 50 ml of hand sanitizer for $15.99.
Prior to this Wuhan Flu a volume like that was probably a couple of bucks.
... and they ask us to support local neighbourhood family franchises over the big Chemical Warehouses. NO
Will all Shane Jones "psuedo students" have to self isolate or can they still go straight to the petrol stations?
Google says we have 1265 petrol stations in NZ. If 99% of them have Shane's guys and there are 2 employed at each - well that's a lot of jobs that can be freed up for young kiwis.
Yvil. I’m always interested in feedback like yours from those in the actual business front line as opposed to armchair critics with no skin in the game. I’ve spent part of the day involved in contingency planning, which won’t end well for more than a few families if this thing plays out to its extreme lengths. This is getting real. It’s been a sobering day.
Tough decession but better late than never.
Healthwise good decession but economy world over is finished for now along with with stock market for now and housing market in coming weeks/ months.
Everyone should hold -wait and watch. Last decade boom to take hit and no amount of easy and free money will help. Economy Cycle will takes its course for now.
Regardless of the announcement today, tourists were not going to be coming here, or going anywhere, for a good while, travel insurance companies have put paid to that.
Just hunker down, it's going to get rough, and hope like hell scientists come up with a vaccine in double quick time.
There is not much else we can do. It is pretty much out of our hands, even out of the govt's hands, so we might just as well go all in.
2009 flu pandemic in New Zealand - Wikipedia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_New_Zealand
Nz had over 3000 h1n1 cases in2009, but there was no shutdown like this.
This comments section is getting ridiculous. Fritz has 27 and Yvil has 28 at the time of writing.
Please keep comments concise and refrain from incessant posting. Feel free to post a few replies but repetition of the same tired points is just annoying and will lead to lower quality commentary. You are draining out insightful comments and over time people will simply stop reading your posts.
Thanks 'Ed'.
I am angry, so apologies. Especially angry when most of the people who comment in support of this initiative are not in danger of losing their jobs, like my son is.
As I say I look forward to the massive support package from the govt this week.
Good night.
Fritz. I appreciate your contributions and also enjoy the too and fro between you and Yvil, so for me keep it coming, bobbles is speaking for themselves as far as I’m concerned. I too am angered at the avoidable risks our political leaders have taken in delaying so long. I have several near and dear who are vulnerable.
korea, Singapore and china (if you believe them) are now getting the spread under control they are having more recover than catch it
the problem is iran, Russia whom a building a hospital for only 45 so far?
and Europe in particular the EU is a mess countries all doing different strategies and open borders so still free movement
the USA are slow of the mark and having a whole pleather of private health entities it does not look good for them
and some of the PI come under our health system so we would fly them here for treatment
NZ citizens (including Cook Islands, Niue or Tokelau)
https://www.health.govt.nz/new-zealand-health-system/eligibility-public…
So Ok then.
Let's assume this is what we have to do, hindsight will be a great thing.
But if these are the new rules, let's become the All Blacks at it.
We need to be proactive in making the Central Govt, and the banks give support to the economy while they reset a new path forward.
We all know house prices are too high, and if they are going to fall, let's not waste a great recession.
Maybe allow losses to be depreciated at a certain rate to allow them to come down to their value-added cost, and prevent a speculator/vulture capital behaviour.
Helicopter money? Let's not be on the back foot while other countries pull rabbits out of hats.
Let's not go through all this just to reinstate the status quo.
Meanwhile just hope the delay in lowering the boom will not prove literally fatal to thousands of kiwis. Events could well deliver a crushing judgment on Ardern’s hesitancy over the last couple of weeks. I sincerely pray I’m wrong and that NZ has by sheer luck dodged a bullet.
Yes, but that now is looking in the rearview mirror.
We need to be looking way forward.
The one concerning thing about all this, is we don't have any real leadership in any of the political parties.
Maybe this is just how we have interpreted MMP, just like we took the RMA and stuffed that up.
But who really had confidence before, and they don't give me any going forward.
With the 1918 Spanish flu, a ship from NZ just about killed the whole of Samoa... https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/2018665029/1…
If you stop for a second and look at south Aucklands vaccination rates you will see what I'm talking about.. on the islands thenselves the vaccination rates were abysmal. Gee I knew it wouldn't be long before someone ignored the message and used the R word. Congrats.
Plus the incident the previous year when vaccines were mis-mixed and 2 babies died after they were vaccinated. I suspect the anti-vaxers were onto that like blowflies on sh*t.
I will guarantee you there are many Samoan families right now, wishing they had living, autistic children.
Heads up all food items produced outside NZ which ranges from pasta/tinned tomatoes/cooking oils you get the idea will be in short/no supply due to shutdowns. The entire supply runs very tight and any issue like shutting down Italy will cause huge reductions to the supply chain. Even now I am starting to see gaps and it is just getting started.
we produce enough food in NZ to feed everyone,
prices may come down as exports reduce as local supply increases, the only problem will be local distribution if things get worse. most of the imports are processed food so NZ might get healthier eating more fresh food
I think they will probably shack up with Manly, the surfs pretty good there and Manly is a good club to benchmark off on training days. The boy's spirits will soar...from the soul destroying gloom of Penrose to the sun, surf and bikinis of Manly beaches...they'll be praying the lockdown never ends!
Probably to late but better late than never. If your going to finally take that step why not make it 2 weeks ago ? Only time will tell now, potentially we are only 2 or 3 weeks behind where the USA is right now. The whole of Auckland could be in lockdown in a month. All we are really doing is "Flattening the curve", which while critical for the hospitals, the fact remains a considerable number of people in NZ will most likely get this.
Its testing.
Is this an issue or a problem.
If you were her, would you request a test.
What example are we looking for from these types?
Internal Affairs Minister Tracey Martin will no longer be tested for coronavirus, despite meeting with a now-infected Australian politician.
On Saturday, a spokesman for Martin said she was feeling fine and showing no symptoms of the virus. New Zealand reported its sixth confirmed case of the virus on Saturday - an Auckland man in his 60s who recently returned from the United States.
"She will continue to self-isolate for a further seven days until next Friday, when it will be a fortnight since attending a meeting with Australian Minister Peter Dutton," Martin's spokesman said.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120281722/coronavirus…
Previously it was reported she would take the test.
It confuses the messaging.
Also the race by kiwis to get back from Melbourne to evade the isolation.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120284444/kiwis-in-me…
Not cool x2.
i find her attitude quite selfish, i am sure she could be tested no problem being a MP even if she has no symptoms and it would send out a calming message when it comes back negative.
but to say bugger you all i am going to do the 14 days because i feel fine and then i will carry on,
Further to testing. Opaque words and inconsistent actions and examples around testing. Here is what PM said this afternoon
The tighter border controls were announced during an update by the prime minister on New Zealand's response to the Covid-19 outbreak on Saturday afternoon. She said while it is not realistic for New Zealand to only have a handful of coronavirus cases, the changes would slow the spread of infection.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120279430/coronavirus…
We are getting mixed messages and seeing inconsistent actions regarding testing.
Why would she say this,
Reverse out the negative:
Meaning, its realistic to think New Zealand has more cases.
Tell us how many more...
i watched this morning and trump jumped the gun google are not doing a worldwide site for people to see if they need testing
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/13/politics/google-trump-coronavirus-si…
JA is not taking about to lift the ban for China today, now NZ shall receive less/no money from: tourism/hospitality, educations, RE etc. - We need investment from there, we need their expertise & strong leadership from there, we need them to open their import border for our export, so in return we can get more of those cheaper toys at the warehouse, If we cannot be friendly to China - Then soon we will be run out of toilet paper and hand sanitiser. NZ, you've been warned.
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