New Zealand had its biggest monthly merchandise trade surplus last month since the Covid-affected trade in April and May 2020.
Other than the Covid affected months, we need to go back to April 2011 to find a larger monthly trade surplus than the $970 million recorded in March 2025.
Additionally, the $7.59 billion worth of the exports in March 2025 is, just in pure in dollar terms, the biggest figure ever.
Moody’s Analytics associate economist Shannon Nicoll said a weaker Kiwi dollar and stronger global prices for New Zealand's key commodities boosted nominal export values. "Meat and dairy (particularly butter) prices have benefited from sturdy demand amid weaker supply," he said.
"Demand from China, the largest market for New Zealand's dairy produce, has been most encouraging. The first three months of this year featured unseasonably high shipments to the nation, marking a quick turnaround from last year's struggles. Meanwhile, shipments of meat to the U.S. have remained strong."
He did caution, however, that looking ahead, the outlook for these two markets has dimmed.
"A jittery Chinese consumer base threatens exports of New Zealand's soft commodities. At the same time, lingering trade tensions with the U.S. make matters worse."
Statistics NZ said the $7.59 billion export figure was up 19% ($1.2 billion) on the figure for March 2024.
Big contributions to the rise came from milk powder, butter, and cheese, up $596 million (35%); meat and edible offal, up $286 million (34%); fruit, up $271 million (74%); and mechanical machinery and equipment, up $93 million (50%)
In terms of our biggest trading partners, there were big rises compared with March 2024 in exports to China, up $371 million (23 percent), the EU, up $223 million (51%) and the US, up $176 million (22%).
In terms of exports to China, the largest rises were milk powder, butter, and cheese, fruit, and logs and wood. The biggest rise in exports to the EU came from meat and edible offal, mechanical machinery and equipment and fruit, while the biggest rises to the US were meat and edible offal, beverages, spirits, and vinegar, and logs, wood, and wood articles.
Looking at the 12 month picture, annual goods exports were valued at $74.1 billion, up $5.1 billion from the previous year. Annual goods imports were valued at $80.2 billion, up $1.3 billion from the previous year.
The annual trade deficit was $6.1 billion, which was down on the $10.0 billion in the year ended March 2024.
19 Comments
Very good. Also important to remember that China has the power to dump into the Aotearoa and Aussie consumer markets. Very good for the beaten-down consumer, but not so good for the business environment. Could be some kind of deflationary impulse and we can all shift our focus back to the Ponzi as the cost of debt falls. So my reckon is that the 'happy days' scenario needs to be balanced with unintended consequences.
OK it’s old hat stuff but, like it or lump it, at the same time it is undeniable that NZ’s success as a mercantile nation is mostly dependent on the success of its primary production. The present government is more akin to that fact than the last lot by a country mile, and it shows.
When we embarked on Neoliberalism in the 80s, the pundits thought our agriculture would die without subsidization, and we'd grow into a new neato services derived export market.
Turns out we just got more efficient at agriculture.
More efficient?...perhaps but the real survival tactic has been the repositioning. The land use has changed considerably since the 80s and even so it is now more profitable to farm carbon credits on much of our land than anything else.
30 odd years of survival is not a bad effort, lets see what the next 30 bring.
More efficient?
Yeah, as in, the difference between the cost to produce and the sales price widened. We developed better export product, and made them fairly economically, relative to our peers.
When something like Kiwifruit is less economical than farming carbon credits, we're in proper trouble.
Turns out we just got more efficient at agriculture.
Don't want to rain on your cheerleading P, but dollar value of exports yoy has increased 6.8%. Aotearoa Peso has appreciated 7%+ YTD and 2% P12M.
So good to keep a bit of perspective and not let your imagination run wild as to how great we are. Granny Herald might paint a different picture. But that's not the point.
One of us is talking about a 40 year measurable arc and the other's looking for short term plot points to make some sort of case. I'm also a farmer and can attest to development of a product and technology that has greatly increased the output of the land. Can you even keep a pot plant alive?
So the point of perspective is at vastly different ends of a telescope.
But that's not the point.
Your point seems to be to shitcan anything remotely positive about NZ, and use the inverse approach appraising anywhere else. It's a point that doesn't really tell us much.
One of us is talking about a 40 year measurable arc
Well of course. Look at what China has achieved in terms of export since entering the WTO in 2001.
So let me get your position straight, your point is our agricultural sector has not undertaken a large improvement in viability and revenue, relative to what it was in the 80s?
So let me get your position straight, your point is our agricultural sector has not undertaken a large improvement in viability and revenue, relative to what it was in the 80s?
Maybe P. But what is your yardstick? As a share of Aotearoa GNP / GDP, agriculture has been flat or even fallen since the 1980s.
But what is your yardstick?
Value of sales (or more specifically exports) vs cost of inputs (or more specifically subsidies). So far every case you've made against that, is using metrics that have little to nothing to do with it (currency value, and share of GDP). You're bending things towards your bias that involves you totally ignoring what I'm saying.
Value of sales (or more specifically exports) vs cost of inputs (or more specifically subsidies)
Value growth doesn't mean a higher monetary value P, unless you're shipping the same volume of product. Even then, it may not mean greater export value.
Dairy is heavily subsidised. For example the $40 million fund allocated for the Lake Rotorua Incentives Scheme is dedicated to purchasing nitrogen reductions from landowners who voluntarily commit to permanently decreasing their nitrogen leaching into Lake Rotorua.
And there is also the Lake Taupo levy on all Waikato ratepayers to fund the nitrogen issue caused by Dairy.
If the same criteria was placed on Canterbury farm system, the cost would be $12 Billion. So apparently Sth Island rivers are less important than the lakes (never mind aquafer pollution).
So perhaps we are not more efficient, just omitting some of the 'costs' when we choose to measure.
In a global context, where Europe is subsiding agriculture to the tune of hundreds of billions of Euros a year, our level of subsidization barely registers.
Up until the 80s, direct subsidies made up nearly half of farmers incomes in NZ.
Yeah and they acknowledge it to and its for a very good reason - food security, Something we don't really have to worry about.
I was thinking of steak eggs and chips tonight but its 100% now...
Yeah and they acknowledge it to and its for a very good reason - food security,
Aotearoa doesn't have a single, comprehensive national food security policy. It's all jury rigged. That's why the poorest people are most vulnerable.
They're the most vulnerable, because they're having to compete with global pricing for domestically produced goods. Their security comes in the form of social welfare.
But we established why countries like China have a food security policy; they're not self sufficient for calories, and 10s of millions of their population starved to death in recent history.
Yeah and they acknowledge it to and its for a very good reason - food security, Something we don't really have to worry about.
Was that a problem here before 1980?
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