Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news we are heading into a week where the data won't be as important as the policy decisions made and about to be made. And we do seem to be seeing a shift in great-power economic fortunes; the US fading while China gets up off its knees.
Although there are only a few key data releases in New Zealand, Australia will release its monthly inflation indicator for February this week on Wednesday and its monthly household spending indicator on Thursday. These will both feed into their election campaign narratives. And later today we will get a first look at their March PMI tracking.
There will be similar 'flash' PMIs from Japan, India, the EU and the US out this week too. South Korea will release business and consumer confidence data while Singapore will release its February inflation rate.
And in the US it will be all about personal income and spending, consumer sentiment, durable goods orders, pending home sales, and the final estimate of Q4-2024 GDP.
In the US this week all eyes will be on how the threatened 'reciprocal tariffs' play out. Those around Trump seem to be starting to realise that tariffs are a tax on yourself, so are growing less certain they are a good idea. The talk now is a scaling back of the 'promised' action threatened to take effect on April 1 (US time), just nine days from now.
No doubt they are very aware of the signals the widely-respected Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is giving.
In Canada, retreating car sales, especially of American brands, has seen their February retail sales take an unexpected dip. They fell by -0.4% from the previous month and January was revised lower, so that is back-to-back falls in retail sales for the first time since June 2024. A +0.3% rise was anticipated in February. Year on year, February retail sales were up +4.2%.
And in Canada, the Liberal government has called an election on April 28 (Saturday NZT). The race is set to revolve around who is best placed to fend off Trump. Trump pettiness is sure to be an issue.
The Japanese inflation rate dipped to 3.7% in February from a 2-year high of 4.0% in January. Helping was a sharp pullback in price of electricity, up +9.0% in February from a year ago, back from +18.0% in January on the same basis. New utility bill subsidies are behind that shift. So this isn't likely to shift the Bank of Japan from its rate rising path.
As expected, Malaysia's CPI inflation rate came in at +1.5%, but that was its lowest since February 2021. Their food prices were stable, housing costs fell.
In China, they are piling on the pressure to try and stop the Hong Kong company who owns the Panama port facilities from completing the deal to sell it to America's Blackrock. CK Hutchison is in an impossible situation now, a pawn between great powers. How this one falls will likely tell us a lot.
Meanwhile, their retail sales activity is on the rise. (At +4.0% year on year and rising from +3.7% in December, and that now bests the US's +3.1% and a fall from +4.4% in December, on the same basis.)
In a bit of a surprise to many analysts, EU consumer sentiment did not improve in March as it has done previously in 2025, rather it dipped lower. To be fair, it has been deeply negative since mid-2021 and running below its long term average for the past two years.
Here's something you don't see everyday. A ratings agency putting a whole sector on 'watch' - in advance of failures. This is from Australia's SQM Research who now say the private credit sector (aka, the private debt sector, or 'private equity') is facing a wave of bad loans. It has a list of 14 issues that the sector is deficient with. Companies owned/funded by this sector are at heightened risk of short-term cut-and-run strategies, making matters worse.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, unchanged from Saturday at this time. But that is -6 bps lower than a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve is holding at +30 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is -3 bp. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is still -4 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.39% and down -6 bps from Saturday. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.90% and unchanged. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.62%, also unchanged from yesterday. A week ago it was at 4.68%.
The price of gold will start today at just on US$3023/oz and up a net +US$9 from Saturday.
Oil prices are stable from Saturday at just under US$68.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just over US$72/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.3 USc and down -10 bps from this time Saturday. A week ago, it was at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding at 53 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and unchanged. A week ago it was at 66.7.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,264 and up +1.6% from this time Saturday. A week ago it was at US$84,261. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at +/- 0.9%.
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20 Comments
Those around Trump seem to be starting to realise that tariffs are a tax on yourself, so are growing less certain they are a good idea.
Hallelujah! Will Trump back down though, after claiming:
"Tariff is a beautiful word, it's my favorite word in the whole world, actually I love the word TARIFF"
And in the meantime Trump has declared war on academia taking $400 mil off Columbia, and $175 mil off Penn State. This is one of Vance's peeves.
and their border control forces are starting to treat Canadians as if they are threats.
When will the US wake up to what their executive is doing? Does their laws even allow for them to challenge the executive office? The alternative is not going to be good for the US and will flow out into the rest of the world. It will impact all of us one way or another.
"Trump v. United States, 603 U.S. 593 (2024), is a landmark decision[1][2] of the Supreme Court of the United States in which the Court determined that presidential immunity from criminal prosecution presumptively extends to all of a president's "official acts" – with absolute immunity for official acts within an exclusive presidential authority that Congress cannot regulate[1][2] such as the pardon, command of the military, execution of laws, or control of the executive branch. "
I accept that, but the oath of office for the senate, congress and military includes defending the constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. where does that threshold lie? By Saturday at least four Federal judges had declared one or more of Trump's executive orders as unconstitutional, and now Trump is going after the judges.
Has there ever been such an act of judicial self-harm? Trump's administration is already ignoring court rulings, and there is little that they can do about it having already told him he can do no wrong.
What has been given, can be taken away - it's only a matter of time.
Trump has nothing to lose as this presidency will end in four years. Ironically it might have been more appropriate if he had carried on, two consecutive terms, as there were then greater restraints in place. Where it is now different is in the question of his immunity which is simply diabolical and of dire potential. For instance had this condition existed previously, President Nixon could have cleared himself of his involvement in Watergate. Trump now considers himself not only as infallible but unimpeachable and that status is what is now assailing all the checks and balances that the forefathers built into their government system to precisely prevent it ever happening and the Supreme Court itself has provided Trump the weaponry.
Steve Bannon seems to disagree with your premise:
'“I’m a firm believer that President Trump will run again in 2028. I’ve already endorsed President Trump,” Bannon said.
“We’re working on it,” Bannon said with a wry smile.
“I think we’ll have a couple of alternatives, let's say that... We’ll see what the definition of term limit is,”'
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/steve-ban…
Best I shut up about that. After all I was convinced that he would not beat Clinton in 2016 and then, that in losing to Biden he was finished up for good. However the mid terms are looking critical and if the GOP retains both houses then all bets are off about any criteria that might have been thought to be sacrosanct.
May be worth sticking with it, at least to point out just how unusual and dangerous this administration is threatening to be.
Don't worry Foxy. I doubt anyone outside the use, and more than a few inside ever considered Trump a serious possibility due to the clear, overt nature of his character. The accumulation of self serving attitudes over decades in their government has done this to them. The real harm will stem from the rest of the world (Western nations) wilfully allowing a single country to assume a leadership mantle with little or no challenge to their influence and authority. This is the consequence of capitalism unbridled.
It's scary to think of Trump having a go at another term, and I personally think he will give it a go. Make no mistake, if he succeeds, it means dictatorship, he will be president until he dies.
Not just the Supreme Court, but the Republican Party in the House too.
their constitution is being turned upside down and they're all afraid to challenge it despite their oath of office.
Trump is still actively fundraising (extremely unusual for a second term President) - apparently the purpose is to build a war chest to fight any Republicans that don't toe the line. They can also expect personal insults, threats and removal of security duties in line with other Trump enemies.
Test. Seem to have been given permission to comment again.
🐎
Don't hit your head when you fall off your high horse Yvil..
Dirty leftist immigrant scum. Disappear him to El Salvador.
In another example of Trump's 4D chess games failing miserably - Polymarket now has Mark Carney as favourite to win the Canadian election at 56%, vs 44% for Poilievre. Before the tariff wars Poilievre, a more natural Trump ally, was around 90% to win.
Trump is wielding soft power like a beginner with nunchucks and catching a few blows to his own head.
Yes. It's like anyone that associates themselves with him ends up becoming personally disadvantaged - Musk included.
Some commentator previously said that MAGA should stand for Makes Attorneys Get Attorneys. I feel so sorry for all those lawyers at the DoJ who are trying to represent the administrations stance in the cases they are involved in. So sad for many of them as they have no choice if they want to hold onto their jobs..
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