Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news that 100 days of mayhem has not only killed the global leadership position of the US, Americans themselves (consumers and business) are reacting by turning sharply defensive.
The US dollar is under pressure, Wall Street is down sharply, and benchmark bond yields are dropping hard.
The first US February PMI shows that output growth is faltering and payrolls are declining, as optimism slumps and costs rise. Their services sector is now contracting and at a 2 year low, their factory sector is expanding however and back to its mid-2024 levels.
And it isn't any better for consumers. The final survey results for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment tracking have come in weaker than the 'flash' result which indicated a sharpish turn lower. In fact it is now -10% weaker than in January, -16% weaker than a year ago. American consumers are spooked. One reason is that they see higher inflation ahead. The final reading for this indicates consumer prices are exdpcted to be +3.5% higher in a year, a worsening of the 'flash' February result we reported earlier of +3.3%.
January existing home sales slumped nearly -5% too from December, although they were up slightly from the same month a year ago. But the year-on-year improvement is being whittled back.
And new homes are likely to get more expensive in the US with global tariffs to be imposed on softwood timber.
Now more of Trump's billionaire backers are having second thoughts about what they funded.
In Canada retail sales volumes were up +2.5% in December, up +3.9% in value terms from a year ago. This is actually quite an impressive result. This will be an interesting metric to watch in future given the nationwide push by Canadians to shift away from buying American-made products in protest at the insults launched by the US President.
In Japan, they finally have inflation, real inflation this time. It climbed to 4.0% in January from 3.6% in the prior month, which is their highest reading since January 2023. Food prices rose at the steepest pace in 15 months up 7.8%, with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn. No doubt their central bank will react to this sharper than expected move.
Despite that, the Japanese February PMIs show improvements in activity in both their services and factory sectors, with their services sector expanding at a healthy rate for a developed economy, and their factory sector contracting less.
India is still expanding fast. Their February PMIs show a better-than-January rise for their services sector, and a weaker-than-January expansion for their factory sector. But both expansions are the envy of most other countries, even if it is from a low base.
The EU PMI survey for February records a small expansion, but it also records their fastest input cost inflation since April 2023. The overall expansion recorded is largely due a recovery in the German factory sector.
And speaking of Germany, they are voting in federal elections this weekend. There are many nervous observers, watching how the far-right Musk & Putin aided AfD party does.
In Australia, who will probably go to the polls themselves in May, their February PMIs report an improving economic activity situation, with their services activity at a six month high, and their factory PMI at a 27 month high. However, to be fair, neither levels are particularly strong compared to other countries.
And locally, the Chinese Navy's notice that it may conduct live-firing exercises in the Tasman Sea, diverting trans-Tasman air traffic, will no doubt focus minds in Canberra and Wellington.
The stumbling US is not good for commodity prices. We are seeing recent falls for metals (copper is down -1.4%), oil and gas are down sharply, uranium is at a 17 month low, aluminium is showing it may not be able to hold its recent highs, nickel is back to a fiver year low, and lead is staying down. Lithium is back to its pre-pandemic lows. Others like tin and zinc are holding their levels at the moment. American petrol prices were stable over the past week.
And the all-important cocoa price is down -10%.
The UST 10yr yield is at 4.42%, down -8 bps from yesterday at this time, down a net -3 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is flatter at +21 bps. Their 1-5 curve is now at +11 bps and also flatter. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is flatter at +13 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.53% and down -4 bps from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.72% and up +2 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now over 4.67%, unchanged from yesterday but up a net +6 bps from this time last week.
Wall Street is falling in its Friday trade, down -1.4% on the S&P500 and a weekly -1.4% retreat. Overnight European markets were mixed between London's no-change and Paris's +0.4%. Tokyo ended its Friday trade up +0.3% for a weekly drop of -0.8%. Hong Kong was up a strong +4.0% to end its week up +3.2%. Shanghai was up +0.8% for a weekly +0.7% rise. Singapore ended up +0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Friday trade down another -0.3% and a -3.0% weekly fall away, while the NZX50 ended down -1.0% on Friday and a -1.8% weekly retreat.
The Fear & Greed Index ends the week has slipped into the 'fear' zone, and out of the 'neutral' zone where it was last week.
The price of gold will start today at just under US$2938/oz and down -US$5 from yesterday. A week ago this price was US$2898 so a net +US$40 rise since then.
Oil prices are down -US$2 at just under US$71/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$75/bbl. These markets are looking at a future of lower demand and higher output and inventories.
The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.5 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday, up +10 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 67.2, unchanged from this time yesterday but down a mere -10 bps from a week ago.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$97.376 and down -0.47% from this time yesterday and down -1.3% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at +/- 1.3%.
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136 Comments
One week till we all contribute $ to Interest 😁
Expect increased intensity from some commenters who may want to go out with a bang.
Which way will it go then. More thoughtful, less entertaining. More respectful, less insulting. More equanimity, less hostility.More equivalency less partisanship. Whatever the outcome spare a thought for the editors understandably pruning the workload , the bumf and carry on that they have needed to wade through in order to maintain the integrity of the site.
That list sounds like a catalogue of wins.
@yvil - unfortunately I will bow out - keep up the good work Yvil -
Do you mind saying why?
In theory, by commenting here, by spending time reading articles and adding to views which increases advertising exposure, one is contributing $. Only it's not in the prescribed form according to one's limited perspective.
I will miss your comments...
I do wish you all fun and enjoyment though.
Ya never know your good fortune. I could find my way back in a weak moment of boredom.
There is hope then .... as I too will miss your comments.
I am in the same boat. I might also
miss commenting
Cracks are starting to appear for the US economy. How long can the fed hold these restrictive rates before it all craps itself ?
I’m sure it’s the last lots fault, they probably left the books in bad shape etc
The FED is trying to balance the probability of tarrifs against the underlying direction of inflation.
But inflation is NOTHING to do with interest-rates or tariffs now - it is a matter of ultimate scarcity. Resource scarcity.
Which mean DCs insistent blame-Trump-for everything is not journalism - nor even close.
And the vast majority of comments, here and everywhere, are equally myopic. It's not 'this lot' or 'that lot'; it's our rate of consumption.
Here's my prediction, Murray.
Vlad will drop a nuclear bomb on Kyiv at a time when Zelensky is in the capital but there are no foreign dignitaries/leaders there. It won't be a missile launch - it will be a one-off big bomb aerial drop. Total destruction. That will be accompanied by conventional-type carpet bombing of any significant population areas and strategic assets. It will all happen so fast - there won't be any immediate response from the West and Putin will have what he came for.
Putin has the advantage because he's a single power with no need for allied forces - they take a long time to sort out command-and-control with and although Europe is having a lot of summits and emergency talks - they won't get there soon enough with a coordinated counter/strike force.
Then there will be talks about a changing face to Europe - East and West - just like the old days.
Not going to happen Kate because there is no need. Trump is not solving this by being a politician, to him its just another business deal, they simply throw Zelensky under the bus by not giving him any more money while doing a deal with the Russians for the minerals, which by the way sound like they are in the area already captured by Russia so possibly they do not even need to take the whole of Ukraine. Russia probably doesn't even care if the war goes on because a country at war cannot join NATO.
Agree mostly.
From Putin's perspective, defense is paramount. He will remember the secret Bay of Pigs deal, re removing US missiles from Turkey - the same applies now, as then. Too close is too close, and defensible is not an open plain - never was. WW2 had a few doozy battles; Kurst, Kiev...
He/they need(s) a buffer, and or a geographical boundary. Also access to water.
And remember what he did his thesis on - it's online - so he is well aware this is a fight over the last half of the planet, loser takes nothing...
I wonder if Ukraine has been sneakily building their own nuclear arsenal?
There are many nervous observers, watching how the far-right Musk & Putin aided AfD party does.
They should learn to not be nervous of political parties led by a lesbian, married to a Sri Lankan immigrant with adopted children?
The far right in Germany have always been a little camp.
An early contender for understatement of the year.
Camp?
It's a matter of intent.
Not my pun - an outdoors place in Dunedin years ago: Now is the winter of our discount tent...
Brilliance...
Ever since DeepSeek I have been wondering if S&P500 can go much higher without first testing resistance.
All feels a lot overcooked to me.
- American consumers are spooked.
- Chinese consumers are STUFFED down to eating vegetables and the cheaper ones only.
- NZ consumers seem to have money only for essentials.
Also this news, South China Morning Post story that a Chinese team found a new bat coronavirus that could infect humans via same route as COVID-19.
paywalled but https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/another-pandemic-scare-…
same bat time, same bat channel
I'm not sure how the bat coronavirus is relevant - I'm sure there are a great number of viruses that remain undiscovered that could be potentially threaten human life on Earth - it would be foolish to not think otherwise or conversely arrogant to believe humans know everything about nature. The comment seems more about making people fearful and scaring people. I consider the comment bizarre - almost repent the end of the world is nigh stuff, classic tactic of someone trying to manipulate.
The comments about consumers - welcome to the real world - we can't continue consuming at the rate we have in the past.
Nothing to fear from random viruses unless the Wuhan Institute of Virology is back in business and cooking up a storm.
Umm...IT GUY forgot to add same bat lab - a BLS-2 lab at that! What could possibly go wrong? Pharma sales figures must be stalling.
Bat-infecting merbecovirus HKU5-CoV lineage 2 can use human ACE2 as a cell entry receptor
https://www.cell.com/cell/abstract/S0092-8674(25)00144-8
1Key Laboratory of Virology and Biosafety, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China
A Biosafety Level 2 (BSL-2) lab is a laboratory that works with moderately hazardous infectious agents or toxins.
Please put tinfoil hat on.....
Given recent events is it really "tin foil hat" to suggest this sort of research should not be carried out in a BL-2 lab? Perhaps BL-4 given the history of lab leaks over the past decades.
For readers at home - the pharma comment was flippant.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/science/article/2022/11/13/virology-a-timelin…
level 2 is like where i homebrew in my tin garage.... nothing to see here.
I did not make it up, seems wall street is very nervous and it seems China is having a heavy traditional flu season which is smashing the locals a bit as well
Your comment seems a little "overcooked". Chinese only eating cheap vegetables....
Orange man bad. Elmo bad. Democracy bad.
Orange man bad.
you mean Putin's Poodle....
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-putin-european-media-decries-ukraine-rem…
How can Trump do a deal with Putin without offering some concessions? We are seeing a propaganda war going on with these publications. All good fun.
All good fun.
Not for those dying or those in the occupied territories. Your comment seems flippant.
While there is a propaganda war going on - I think Trump is giving people so much ammunition to say he is shooting himself in the foot is an understatement. You say
How can Trump do a deal with Putin without offering some concessions?
I thought Trump was a master negotiator and a "strong man" - perhaps just a wannabe.
A CNN poll published Thursday found that just 47 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s performance, while 52 percent disapprove. Moreover, 55 percent of respondents don’t think he’s focused enough on the most pressing issues in the U.S., and 62 percent don’t think he’s done enough to bring the costs of common goods down.
The Washington Post and Gallup released similarly negative results this week. The Post-Ipsos poll found that 57 percent of Americans thought that Trump was “exceeding his authority” and that 48 percent opposed his actions outright. Gallup’s poll showed that 51 percent of Americans disapproved of Trump.
https://newrepublic.com/post/191830/trump-reaction-polls-approval
Deals normally involve reaching some sort of middle ground. For instance Crimea is probably off the table as far as Putin is concerned.
I'm not going to apologize for finding propaganda fun. Wars are extremely interesting.
Wars are extremely interesting.
Not for those on the frontline facing death everyday.
While in some ways I am stunned by your comment - I am not surprised. It comes across as arrogant. Perhaps you should take the D-factor ( A Theory of the Common Core of Socially and Ethically Aversive Personality Traits) test and give us the result.....
How about fascinating then? Lately we have had the privilege (is that the right word?) of watching wars in real time. Even to the extent of viewing the action through live webcams. You can see the battle damage on Google Maps. Check out Gaza and Mariupol. The Great Game has never been so observable.
Why does that sound totally sadistic....
The question is how fascinating he would find it when the bombs were landing all around him, and if he would find it fascinating to see his body blown apart, or his kids.
True - but I doubt those with sadistic personality disorder would actually understand or care.
It's more like,
"I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time like tears in rain.."
It's human to watch epic events. Did you hide your eyes when the news showed the towers fall, when Challenger exploded?
The libraries are full of books about warfare. There are uncountable, movies, documentaries and analysis. Did you watch Saving Private Ryan? Do you not feel a thrill when fighter jets fly over? The sight of a Spitfire soaring into the air? Why are Warbirds over Wanaka a thing? Did you watch Skyhawks attacking the ships at San Carlos Bay? The triumphant return of the Royal Navy at Portsmouth?
Anyway, I'm advocating stopping the war in Ukraine.
Didn't have much choice to hide my eyes watching the Challeger explode live as a child. There wasn't exactly forewarning.
As for the rest it all depends whether one chooses to learn and teach from acts of senseless and mindless violence. Whether one is watching with a sense of elation and fascination, or a sense of sorrow and grief. Did you get the message from Saving Private Ryan?
One can view the technology with a sense of awe and also acknowledge what they represent without glorifying them. As an airforce child I'm closely connected with much of it, but with experience and knowledge, ideally one also develops wisdom, and with that a change in outlook.
The message I got from Saving Private Ryan was that death in battle was glorious. Terrence Malick's The Thin Red Line was the better movie.
What concessions are Russia offering in return?
The end of the slaughter of innocent young Ukrainians - and the end of western tax payers funding billions in a war they don’t want to be involved in.
Seems like a reasonable deal.
But I get the sense people don’t want the fighting to end until Putin is punished severely - but (and this is a big but) he holds a reasonable hand in the negotiations because Ukraine has no realistic path to victory in this conflict - so as much as people wish to punish Putin that is counterproductive thinking as all it will do is:
1. Keep the war going
2. See more innocent young Ukrainians die
3. See more western taxpayer money spent
/wasted on a needless war that ensures more innocent Ukrainians die.
Those who hate Putin and Trump need to get over their egos (and bias against ‘authoritarians’) if they want to see peace in the region - but many - especially in the political left, can’t bring themselves to move past their hatred for Trump and Putin in order to see the path towards peace. Because ‘well Trump is evil’ and is ‘Putins puppet’. I say to them ‘have it your way and continue to wage war against Putin, waste more of your money on weapons, and ensure the death of even more innocent young people’
Like any conflict - their hatred for their opponent is greater than their ability to move towards finding common good with their opponent and restoring peace (this is true from a fight with your neighbour to a global war). Trump is moving towards finding common good with Putin in order to bring peace but many can’t accept that as their brains have been hijacked by hatred and as such want more lives to be lost until their opponent is punished more (Putin) - while simultaneously, as a consequence of that level of thinking, punishing those they want to protect (Ukrainians).
Spot on, its only the armchair warriors that want to see this continue. Zelensky doesn't want to concede any of those minerals and Trump is right he is on the gravy train. The USA has stopped funding the war, Ukraine had better act fast before Putin takes the whole country and Zelensky falls out of a window.
Putin will take the whole country because that is what he said he was going to do right from the start. Will though need time to regroup and rearm. By then Russia will have south eastern Ukrainian territory extending west to east from the Dnieper and, most importantly, north of the Donetz industrial belt which, has been the stumbling block, which from their own hard won history,they should have known it would be. The Ukrainian salient at Kursk will be gone and that opens the way for the critically strategic city of Kharkov to be taken by a classical Russian pincer, north & south. As WW2 demonstrated occupation of Kharkov opens the way westwards to all of Ukraine and wide open land rather than fighting in urban/industrial built up zones. Trump is about to deliver all of this on a plate whether he knows it or not but would think likely , he will learn of it whilst still in office.
Who are you trying to convince - us or yourself. You have said something similar on several occasions - you keep repeating the same scenario as if it is wishful thinking and any other scenario is unpalatable.
Not at all. Just a prediction based on the accounts of fighting in this region the Russian civil war and WW2. Google for instance - “why Kharkiv is the most important location in East Ukraine”and because, Putin has made it abundantly clear that he requires all of Ukraine and whatever is arrived at in terms of a settlement shortly, will be simply a pause. If you find the above video you will see the Russians cocked up by trying to move through Donetz south to north.The aggression here by Putin’s Russia is criminal but the fact is it exists to the point of where it is at. I am predicting the next stage because when Putin starts up again, it will be from a greatly more advantageous geographical position and the progress from there is self explanatory.
People's views may be skewed by what is likely to be propaganda in the media. If the situation is more dire than the news would suggest people may understand that a deal that ends the war would be the best option. We don't want to see a collapse of the Ukrainian forces. As we saw in Syria things can change very quickly. Best to negotiate and do deals while you still have a strong hand. If an army is encircled or in an undisciplined retreat then chances of a good deal are out the window.
If no deal is made then I can only assume Ukraine is in a good position and it is the right call to press on. Who knows the true state of affairs? I know I don't.
You seem to be making a great number of excuses today. As far as I can tell the Trump administration does not have a singular coherent policy on the Russo- Ukrainian war (or for anything else for that matter). You have Trump (who changes his mind every five minutes), the Project 2025 cohort and then the envoys - each of whom are saying slightly different things. While it may be deliberate I think the right are just painting themselves into a corner - blaming everything on everyone else but failing to look at themselves. The right are just as "woke"as the left. .
Wow hope we never get invaded, people like you will roll over before the first salvo is fired.
People like who ?
You...
All talk of acquiescing to putins demands after his brutal and unnecessary invasion of Ukraine are naive.
The brave men and women of Ukraine are fighting for survival. They have an inkling of what life would look like in
occupied Ukraine under putins boot, where the slightest whiff of dissent will have you sent to the gulags for decades.
This whole situation reminds me of Orwells 1984. And a lot of people have been brainwashed by the media and left leaning politics into thinking war is peace and that Russia is completely evil and we must always be at war with them. Anyone who disagrees is a traitor to the state.
It’s bonkers.
Yeah its pretty sad isn't it that you feel you have to join NATO or you are stuffed, well Ukraine just wanting to join NATO is getting them all killed.
It's said the truth is stranger than fiction. How many of these fictional stories have become the playbook by those in the position to write the narrative, and implement the very things we're warned against?
Are you sure it's the "left" leaning at fault and it isn't part of the propaganda machine? It would appear the more these things are repeated in various media platforms, the more it's repeated by the citizens.
Are you sure it's the "left" leaning at fault
I don't. I think it is what you might roughly describe as the mainstream western / neoliberal / neocon / centrists that are pimping hardest for this war.
This is all part of the Great Game. Been going on for 200 years. Like, what the hell were we thinking, allying with the Ottomans and attacking the Russians in Crimea? We've been messing with the Russians for a long time.
In Auckland, Devonport's North Head gun emplacements were built to repel Russian warships. Well worth a visit.
The Crimean War has parallels with the current conflict in Ukraine. It did lead to Russia abolishing serfdom and instituting reforms that modernized the Russian state so I guess that was good, maybe. You never know the Ukraine War may lead to Russia becoming more Western after Putin. It became very unpopular in Britain after casualties and costs were counted.
The Crimean war remained as a classic example... of how governments may plunge into war, how strong ambassadors may mislead weak prime ministers, how the public may be worked up into a facile fury, and how the achievements of the war may crumble to nothing.
True story. An activist Quaker ancestor of mine, involved in the abolition of slavery in England and elsewhere, travelled to meet the Tsar in attempts to prevent the Crimean war.
The Great Game? Only 200 years? The Age of Empires and religious ideology has been fought for much longer than that. There could be many parallels between the current Ukraine conflict, the Crimean war and the middle east Israel/Palestine conflict.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Crimean-War
Weapons are the tools of violence; all decent men detest them.
Weapons are the tools of fear, a decent man will avoid them except in the direst necessity and, if compelled, will use them only with the utmost restraint.
Peace is his highest value. If the peace has been shattered, how can he be content?
His enemies are not demons, but human beings like himself. He doesn't wish them personal harm. Nor does he rejoice in victory. How could he rejoice in victory and delight in the slaughter of men?
He enters a battle gravely, with sorrow and with great compassion, as if he were attending a funeral.
Lao Tzu - Tao te Ching
"The Great Game, the strategic rivalry between the British and Russian Empires over Central Asia, is generally considered to have started on January 12, 1830" so, yes, about 200 years
The Chinese probably should have read Clausewitz.and Machiavelli.
How naive you are little man. The Kremlin mafia are completely evil. As far as this situation reminding you of "1984"? Well yes, the book was banned in the USSR, in case people connected the dots.
With Putin's limp attempt at new imperialism and fond revisionism of Stalin's legacy, the state is again the purveyor of Russian repression, and newspeak the language of Russian state television. Reminds of the good old days when Russians were told they were living in abundance, while lined up in -20 for their loaf of bread.
That lefty, Rupert Murdoch seems to have had enough of Trump's moronic attempts to gain Putin's favour. The cover of the NY post says it all!
https://nypost.com/cover/february-21-2025/
Even saw Bill Browder on Fox, being interviewed by a Maga faithful, who was nodding her head as Browder called out Trump BS.
PT08 - on almost everything else, you are spot-on.
Make that everything else.
But not your take on Putin.
Try divesting all prejudice and imagine yourself in his shoes. Seriously. What would you see as threats?
THink about it.
The paranoid mafia KGB president for life? Could never philosophically be in his shoes, without suffering some sort of major brain Injury. But hey PDK, you're in great company as a Putin supporter. That could be a clue?
You think Putin is the engine required for a free, democratic, sustainable, egalitarian future?
How you justify Putin and his regimes butchery isn't really consistent with your other positions!
Seems Putins historical brotherhood, living in the independent country to the south, must kiss the ring and accept the material and intellectual poverty that is the Russian Federation. Seems you are too embedded in Russian propaganda? Try listening to what Ukraine is saying.
You make another mistake. That's two.
I am not a Putin supporter.
Never was, never will be.
But I make it my business to understand the Why? of everything/everyone I can.
And there are reasons Putin is reacting as he is - but you have to be honest about the West; it's motives and modus operandii. Which are not all that innocent...
I do understand the little mafia dons intentions. He is really quite a genius at flooding the zone with bulk shit, breathing becomes impossible. Of course he has a whole army working in troll farms to spread Russian love, Tucker Carson, Tennet media, US government, Alex Jones, far right politics.....Although once indentified, it's quite easy to recognise the brown stuff, simply by investigating the source.
Putin wants to recreate the Russian empire. He has said so himself. In many ways that's just a distraction. Putin is protecting his own arse. Such regimes need to grow and quickly, otherwise dissatisfaction sets in, as the plebs realise the thievery those in absolute power are inflicting. If a fire starts, it can only end in violence in authoritarian states. Such an expansion involves stealing others property.
One thing Putin does find precious, is his own life, while being directly responsible for millions of deaths and disfigurements.
Now ask yourself what Putin offers those he has annexed? Violence? Theft? The very characteristics they hoped to get rid of when Yanukovich was booted from his job. You are very fond of Nuland this and Nuland that, as if Ukrainians themselves have no agency in their own future. Ever thought you might just be repeating the ear worm planted by the troll farming industry?
How would you feel in a Ukrainians place? Your country, your neighbours, your family? You would happily put up with living with the inviolable corruption? How would you feel about the lying circulating in western communities The Kremlin is a mafia organisation. Putin rose through the ranks by doing deals with criminals and by being top criminal himself. Yes, the Kremlim is protecting itself, but it's not protecting Russia.
It's also banned in a lot of US schools, book bannings at a state level
This looks like the least self aware comment I've seen here, to be honest. Stunning.
No mention has been made of whether the Ukrainian people themselves want to cease resisting Putin's invasion either. Seems only comments from people in armchairs around the world that they should and they need to stop seeing their invader as bad, and that anyone who does not sympathise with or appease the invader is brainwashed. Incredible.
War is peace, eh. Shades of 1984 indeed.
Are Ukranian people able to express themselves without fear of consequences? Most commenters are just suggesting there should be negotiations.
Brilliant. Hopefully one day you'll have the opportunity to negotiate with someone pointing a gun at your head. Could be a fulfilling experience for you?
"Are Ukranian people able to express themselves without fear of consequences?" Yes. remember that clown Gonzalo Lira? He was vlogging Russian propaganda from Ukraine for a year before he met his demise in a dysfunctional Ukrainian health system, bombed back to the stone age by Putin.
There will be some form of deal made eventually.
Well yes there will. Hopefully it won't benefit the murderers.
But I get the sense people don’t want the fighting to end until Putin is punished severely
Your take on the war is very similar to mine. We are kindred souls on this matter.
The sheeple are not used to seeing the West lose wars (and yes, this can be considered a "Western war" where the good guys [West] charge against bad guys [non-Anglosphere aligned]). They rely on what Granny, CNN, etc feed them on the details and to be informed.
Assume the war finishes in a few months. As my colleague said, there'll be MIA flags for abandoned NGOs and liberal Rambo flicks in which a heroic American disinfo-warrior slips into Russian-held Donbas and fact-checks authoritarians.
Sanity.
LOL - that question assumes Putin wants peace. My guess is the first time Rubio opened his mouth and started talking about an agreement where both sides needing to concede something - the Russian guy sat there and listened and then said nothing when Rubio shut up.
So Rubio starts talking again - as if there was to be some sort of deal coming out of this. And the Russian guy sat there and said nothing when Rubio (finally) went silent again. .
Anyway after a long pregnant pause, Rubio says, "well what are your ideas, then?"
To which the Russian says, "Ideas about what"? And Rubio responds, "about ending the war".
To which the Russian says, "We never said anything about ending the war. Why would we want to end the war before taking Ukraine".
Nice to meet you though - give your President, our President's regards.
End of meeting.
All in front of the Saudi Crown Prince.
Americans can be so stupid.
LOL - that question assumes Putin wants peace
Wrong. It's about stopping the senseless slaughter of Ukrainians. That cannot be achieved without talk. The fact that people dont like Putin or don't understand his motivations is beside the point.
My point being, the current US administration is the wrong one to be talking. No respect there on the Russian side. I think it was the day of Trump's inauguration (or election, I can't remember) that Russian state TV did a piece on Melanie's nude pics. The two presenters could not contain their laughter.
Kate two matters of influence. Firstly Ukraine is rich in untapped mineral resources etc. Trump has said he wants them. That means undoubtedly Trump doesn’t want Russia to have them. Trump is saying to Ukraine give them to the USA or else lose your country. If the USA moves in then they will have to defend their interests. Secondly the Russia military is greatly weakened and so too the economy and society at large. Western intelligence should have a fix on all of that. If the NATO body decided to step, there would be no better time than now
I think Trump's a bit mixed up - as I understand it - Ukraine is mineral rich but not rare earth mineral rich;
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-19/trump-s-insistenc…
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/rare-earth-reserves-…
It's no wonder Trump didn't have his hand on the bible when taking the oath of office, he'd probably set fire to it. Extortion might be standard practice in the "Art of the Deal", but even capitalist Jesus might balk at King Trumps grift on this scale.
@Zachary Smith If would be Ok if it was just some concessions. The problem is that he has picked up Putin's rhetoric. He is completely misinformed on the subject of Ukraine because he listens to Putin and ignores Zelenskiy. He should be an unbiased force arranging negotiations between Putin and Zelenskiy, instead he pushed Zelensky out and is repeating all of Putin's (propaganda)talking points. So much so that some are actually beginning to wonder if Trump's a Russian asset.
Nah, they (Trump and his administration) are picking up Putin's rhetoric because if they don't it will look like they 'failed' in their self-appointed 'king pin' - art of the deal negotiation role.
Why do you think Trump couldn't confirm or deny whether he talked to Putin in his first days as President? Simple, because he didn't talk to him. But, Trump was hardly going to say, "he won't take my call". I suspect they haven't talked yet. But Putin found a way to make Trump scared - so Trump's backed off.
And so with his tail between his legs, when there was nothing at that table to come away with (i.e., they weren't going to be able to announce they were the great peacemakers) - Trump had the brilliant idea the next day to try and get ownership of half of Ukraine's rare earth minerals... from the other side.
If it weren't happening for real, no one could write this script.
Democracy?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/02/20/trump-third-term-kin…
Whom is in whose pocket?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/02/21/donald-trump-us-putin…
the all-important cocoa price is down -10%
😂
Phew! Everything else can turn to shit but as long as we have chocolate we'll be OK
I thought that was a cocaine joke.
But we got told our peso was going to crash with the drop of OCR. That oil was going to go thru the roof. That the US consumer was going to pay more at the pump. So really no one can predict the outcome. Only what you can do
Colin I suggest you do not take up interest rate trading or FX, commenters on here where saying if we keep cutting for the rest of the year when no one else was it would crush the NZD, and it would.
The FX and interest rate traders have seen that there are no more penciled in cuts, just signals now voiced by the RNBZ as data dependent. So the FX market will move if these releases show anything either way then broadly accepted forecasts.
oil is $71 a barrel no one wants it because everything is BOOMING
not...
if you are trading your views, its going to be hard to find the $10 a month
Just quoting back what people on here have said plenty of times, not me. Plus wouldnt trade in anything I cant control because in the end the guys with the shiny shoes end up with it. So keep your FX.
CC- no.
I have been pointing out, here, for years, why oil cannot go through the roof.
The reason is that energy underwrites money, 100%. Or unreconcilable debt, or inflation.
We measure the wrong thing; an artificial, keystroked proxy.
We should measure a real thing: the Joule.
More good news from the we are not going to starve department.
"The Biden Administration raised its Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimate about fivefold based in part on global crop yield decline projections estimated on a meta-analysis data base first published in 2014. The data set contains 1722 records but half were missing at least one variable (usually the change in CO2) so only 862 were available for multivariate regression modeling. ...Reanalysis on the larger data set yields very different results. While the original smaller data set implies yield declines of all crop types even at low levels of warming, on the full data set global average yield changes are zero or positive even out to 5 °C warming."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-90254-2
Groan. Someone else has crawled out from under the Denierville rock. At + 5degC global average temperature humans will be battling extinction. But I guess this economist feels he has had a Eureka moment, so we can all feel good about burning everything combustible.
Some of the fools even count food as only 3% of economic activity - so we can live without it.
There's an economics Nobel prizewinner (it isn't really a Nobel - just a bank-sponsored attempt to legitimise) who wrote that - you couldn't make it up. Then said food could be grown in the shade, if things got too hot.
Economics has a lot to answer for/to.
Unable to find anything wrong with the peer reviewed research Palmtree08 goes for the lazy strawman. Go you!
No wonder they are so keen on mass illegal immigration.
"The Coming Democratic Baby Bust
Over the past three decades, Republicans have generally given birth to more kids than Democrats have. But during those first years of the first Trump administration, the partisan birth gap widened by 17 percent. “You see a clear and undeniable shift in who’s having babies,” Dahl told me."
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2025/02/democrat-baby-bust-t…
It would be interesting to compare NZ birth rates statistics between Labour/Greens/TPM & Nat/ACT/NZF voters...I doubt there is a valid dataset though
I had five kids and have eleven grandkids. I didn't vote for any of those. Is that dataset valid.
these stats would be easy to run, children have to be registered at birth and names detailed etc
And by indoctrinating kids when they're young they can hope to avoid demands for things such as reasonable wages, education, housing costs etc, in favour of adherence to a lord.
Or a belief.
'Economic growth can go forever on a finite planet'
is one such...
The Democrats are busy gender transitioning their children and rendering them infertile. If that isnt the very definition of an own goal, then I dont know what is.
The Democrats also want as many illegal immigrants as possible, because the allocation of Electoral College votes in an election is based on Census population data, which counts all people not just people eligible to vote. The more people, the more EC votes allocated. Doesnt matter if they are illegal, legal or citizens. Places like California are desperate to acquire as many illegals as possible to offset the huge numbers of people who are leaving for Florida, Texas and other places.
“California lost 433,000 people between July 2020 and July 2023,” the Public Policy Institute of California calculated. “Most of the loss occurred during the first year of the pandemic and was driven by a sharp rise in residents moving to other states. But fewer births, higher deaths and lower international migration also played a role.”
But the future looks like slow growth at best, which means the state will likely lose four or more congressional seats, and therefore electoral votes, after the 2030 census.
A 2023 analysis by the liberal Brennan Center estimated that California will lose four seats, while the conservative American Redistricting Project pegged the likely loss at five seats.
It’s a major chunk of a wider shift of population, congressional seats and electoral votes from blue states — New York will also be a big loser — to red states such as Texas and Florida, whose economies are growing smartly and where housing is affordable.
Housing protectionism and entitled NIMBYs again the biggest problem, overseas as here. Funny that people can see it there, but too often not here.
It’s happening the world over, the smarter people aren’t having as many kids.
great movie...
I thought that was decided years ago..
Reminds me of the opening scene in the documentary "Idiocracy"
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sP2tUW0HDHA&t=8s&pp=ygUJaWRpb2NyYWN5
Biggest crypto exchange hack in history overnight. People barely shrug about these things any more. Biggest difference between this hack and past events is that the exchange is in a position to make customers whole. Regardless, it's still concerning that people do not take precautionary measures such as keeping assets off exchanges.
In other news it looks like Hooters is going tits up
While it sad to see a company go under (people lose their job etc) I think this chain is past (passed :-) ) it's use by date
Go figure
Casual dining chains have come under pressure as inflation, supply chain disruptions and higher interest expenses raised menu prices, making consumers less interested in eating out. More than a dozen large restaurants or franchisees sought bankruptcy protection last year, according to BankruptcyData.
Restaurant prices increased about 44% from 2015 to March 2024, according to data firm Black Box Intelligence, compared to a 26% increase for grocery items over the same period.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hooters-talks-prepare-bankruptcy-filing-…
How much can be attributed to the activities of the younger generations?
Hooters is all available online. They're consuming and producing online and ordering via Uber eats, Temu and Amazon.
Brand clothing and retail is given more importance than casual dining unless it also has status value for their online persona.
That must be deflating
maybe it will refloat
Jamie Dimon dumping his JPM shares. According to a recent SEC filing, Dimon sold a total of 783,361 shares of JPMorgan Chase common stock at a price of approximately $269.84 per share. The transactions, which took place through various family trusts and LLCs, amounted to a total value of approximately $233.8 million.
Probably nothing.
https://in.investing.com/news/insider-trading-news/jpmorgan-chase-ceo-j…
I'm seeing in Rodney, lots of sections around 400-600 square meters just sitting for months and years. All wanting 450-600k. Average person can't afford that.
link a few? where are we talking end of Whangaporoa , Milldale etc ? be good to take a look at the issues?
agree though 1.4 mil is like a third house or even final for most NZers ....
shit the bottom is a long way down aye
Yes, I've seen the same sections, and when you add the build cost, you're looking at $1.4m total. Crazy stuff.
I think it's interesting the watercare issue came about around the time these sections stopped selling.
Never thought I’d say this, but I wonder if we need to privatise the health system. We seem to be getting all the negatives you would expect with a service provided by the government: inadequate supply, unfair distribution, inefficient processes, etc. Reminds me of Soviet countries where you lined up to get your state provided bread; the government were unable to produce enough and then were unable to distribute what they did produce. Capitalism ain’t perfect but it’s the best we’ve ever come up with.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/katikati-medical-ce…
That's exactly the current government's goal, achieved by cutting staff and funding.
To be honest it was worse under the previous government. At least I can see a GP in a 4 weeks now instead of 6. I don’t mind paying lots of tax for a system that I can use, but not for one I can’t.
Im not saying capitalism is the perfect answer, but the current answer isn’t working either. Maybe we need something like the Aussies where you can choose via tax rebates which system you prefer.
I walked into the local doctors last week to make an appointment and the only person there was trying to sign up but was told they were too busy. This was kind of strange when I had to wait 10 more minutes to see the nurse and I was through into my regular 2 year full health check-up. There was nobody waiting in reception all that time and nobody when I came out. I'm not sure what the definition of "Too Busy" is these days, it was certainly hell at the hospital with 5 or even 6 hour waits if you needed medical attention.
maybe we need user pays... young can probably afford insurance as its cheap for them.....
at least you guys have term deposits to pay the bills
That is the classic excuse for when socialism doesn’t work, it’s because the right get elected and underfund it. Same argument with Kianga Ora. Somehow private property investors were making off like bandits, yet Kianga Ora needed constant government investment to improve their property.
follow the money of 5 house clark .....
only slightly worse then 7 house luxon ...
Not sure how or why privatizing health would produce more GPs?
Although National's decision to open up a medical school at Waikato is a good start to solve these shortages - that won't make a difference for 10 years or so. I think the government needs to concentrate effort on upskilling the existing RN workforce to the Nurse Practitioner level of qualification. WE have an excess of undergraduate student nurses - many of whom cannot get jobs.
Were it me, I'd pick a number, say 1000 (as long as we have that kind of excess of unemployed nursing graduates) and do a one-for-one swap to take the existing RN off the hospital floor and put them into a classroom for the next two years - tuition expenses fully paid. It would be done of course on a voluntary basis (in other words an existing RN would have to volunteer to study full time for the next two years)..
We need not have ANY GP waitlists, if nurse practitioners are able to handle the common/everyday minor illnesses; prescribe medications and refer people to the wider system for specialist exams (xray, etc) and clinical treatment (physio etc.).
I’m not certain how the current system works, but it appears in that article that the government sets salaries and prices for PHOs. If they are underpaid compared to Aus then that will absolutely affect supply.
The advantage of private is that people have the choice of paying a bit extra for a better service. At the moment I don’t get that choice, I have to pay an absolute fortune in tax for a public system that is realistically completely useless. If I want private I have to pay twice.
Incidentally I have changed to a Nurse Practitioner recently, was the only clinic in my area taking on new patients. I haven’t needed to make a booking since, but will be interesting to see what the wait time is.
paying a bit extra for a better service
Is it a better service though? The rooms might be nicer but I'm pretty sure there are more complications from private surgery than public and then you waste time getting back to the public emergency dept when things go really wrong
I’m actually talking about GPs. We are a relatively healthy family, very rarely step foot in a hospital.
There is currently a two tier system in NZ for GPs - those that are enrolled in a clinic with low demand or closed books, and those that are enrolled in a clinic with high demand and open books. My family are in the latter, and you cannot get an appointment without waiting a month at least, and then it is a different doctor every time as you choose the one with the shortest queue. One time I waited 6 weeks and the doctor was sick so they rebooked me 4 weeks later! I don’t use the term third world very often (people use it for a short power cut!), but this is genuinely third world.
I rang around 8 other clinics, all said they were not enrolling new patients. Luckily last time I got sick I went to white cross emergency instead and paid $120 for the visit, that doctor said I really need to see my family GP, when I explained the min 4 week wait she said “how ridiculous that is unusable” and recommended this nurse practitioner that was enrolling.
The medical centre we used has a 1.6/5 rating on google. Almost every review starts with “I would give this place 0 stars if I could”. But it’s not really their fault, they are the only one brave enough (or greedy enough) to take in new patients. Anything is better than nothing.
Very glad to hear your primary provider has a nurse practitioner on staff.
You do have choice in that you can supplement to public system with private insurance. Not applicable in all cases, and indeed many GP clinics actually charge more than others to top up what the government subsidy per GP visit is. That's the difference between a PHO and a semi-private GP practice. PHOs are locked into a specific charging regime;
https://www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/for-health-providers/primary-care-sector…
I've got direct experience of the private US system - it's not pretty at all. I should write about it someday. My sister's husband had a sudden brain bleed at the age of 38. I went over to support my sister while he was in ICU and I ended up managing the cost/insurance aspects of his care - and, as it is over there - her and her son's future;
https://www.statista.com/topics/8219/medical-debt-in-the-us/#topicOverv…
That's what is at stake (the whole family's future) when a relative becomes seriously ill.
There are options in between full private and full public. Maybe the public does the funding and private provide the service for example.
It just feels like the current system has all the problems you would expect from something that is government run.
That's what they want you to believe. Will it improve the service and healthcare or will the profit and return be the primary aim? This issue ties in with another article on this site regarding the health of workers.
It appears the majority of GP clinics are privatised. If they enrol patients they get the government subsidy too.
https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/02/29/the-corporate-expansion-into-general-…
My GP clinic is part of the Green Cross empire. I'm not sure exactly when they were bought out but since they were coporatised their service is worse. They have expanded their ownership of clinics but haven't invested in expanding the clinics themselves. Private equity isn't the answer to productivity or quality of service. Numbers are more important than humans.
Obviously we ain't very clever if capitalism is the best we can come up with. Government (us) is meant to provide the balance.
I am registered and get GP care in Panmure, (though mainly i just ask via an app ) its $19 a GP visit.... luckily for specialist care I have found myself inside the public system.... how I got there is however a story I shall not share here, its who you know for sure.
Wow...it's got to be a record ...only a few weeks into the chaos in America and the stupid trump voters are already regretting it...stupid is as stupid does
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