Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news it seems the Americans are getting what they voted for, but not what they wanted. They seem to have thrown out good economic conditions and gotten economic chaos. It's only been two months since their election, less since the transition of power, but the economic data, especially the forward looking data, does look like Americans are realising what has been wrought. And they don't like it.
January non-farm payrolls growth came in less that expected, up +144,000 when the average of market estimates was +170,000. In 2024 that would have been regarded as a "big miss'.
The data collectors said that wildfires in LA and severe winter weather in other parts of the country, had “no discernible effect” on employment in the month.
Their jobless rate ticked down to 4.0% and average weekly earnings rose +4.2% from a year ago, so overall a mixed picture.
But the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for February fell from January and quite sharply. It's the second straight month of retreat and is now its lowest reading since July 2024. Both the 'conditions' and 'expectations' measures fell. There was also a large slide in buying conditions for durables, in part due to a perception that it may be too late to avoid the negative impact of their tariff policy. In addition, inflation expectations for the year ahead soared to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023, from 3.3%. This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month rise in year-ahead inflation expectations. Many consumers appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year.
Not only is this measure of sentiment down in February from January (-4.6%), it is down even more sharply from February a year ago (-12%).
And it is not going to get better. Trump is signaling 'reciprocal tariffs' on many countries, also expected to raise costs for Americans. It will be a major international escalation. No indication here on how that will affect New Zealand that basically doesn't have any tariffs with anyone. (In his alternate reality, he may just invent that we have some, of course.)
An uncertain and fearful American middle class may have a much bigger impact on the global economy than even their new public policy direction. Of course the two are related.
But Wall Street is happy. "At this stage of the fourth quarter earnings season, S&P 500 companies are reporting strong results relative to expectations. Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages. As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the fourth quarter today (Friday, February 7) relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. In addition, the index is reporting its highest year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q4 2024 in three years." But it is hard to see this being sustained if inflation rises and consumers pull back buying plans as a result.
North of the border, Canada turned in a very strong jobs report again, it's second consecutive big gain. +76,000 new jobs were added in January, far higher than the +25,000 expected. Their jobless rate fell to 6.6%. Of course, this too is much more uncertain when looking ahead, for the same US-based reasons.
As the New Zealand dairy industry knows, Canada has an [illegal] trade protection scheme operating for its dairy industry, a system of "supply management". Their industry leaders "don't think it being threatened" in the current stoush with the US.
Japan is reporting that household spending jumped in December and by very much more than anticipated. It was up +2.7% in December from November when only a +0.5% rise was anticipated. That large monthly shift now means that the year-on-year rise is +2.3%. If Japanese consumers are opening their wallets, it is both a sign that sentiment is rising, and it will be some counterbalance to the US ructions and the Chinese slowdown. We should not forget that Japan is the world's fourth largest economy, larger than India. It is similarly important for New Zealand exports.
India cut its policy rate by -25 bps tp 6.25%, its first cut since April 2020. Their forecasts indicate rising growth and falling inflation. Although that will be what PM Modi wants to hear, they may be 'brave' forecasts. But they are juicing up the stimulus, with this rate cut part of a two-part action to compliment last week's tax cuts.
China said its official reserves rose marginally in January, now at US$3.2 tln. US$769 bln of that is US Treasury debt, and falling (Nov-24). (Those holdings may now be lower than those the UK hold in US Treasuries.)
Global world food prices were little-changed in January and are still running lower than a year ago. There was a small dip in sheepmeat prices, a rise in beef prices, and big rise in dairy prices. In fact dairy prices are now at two year highs, but are still -10% lower than when they peaked in June 2022.
The UST 10yr yield is at 4.49%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time, but down -2 bps from a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve is flatter at +21 bps. Their 1-5 curve is holding flatter at +11 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is now at +17 bps and little-changed from yesterday. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today over 4.45% and up another +5 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is still at 1.61% and near its lows. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.56%, up +1 bp from yesterday but down -3 bps from a week ago.
Wall Street has opened its Friday trade with a -0.9% fall on the S&P500 but that would lock in a +1.0% gain for the week. Overnight European markets were all down about -0.4%. Yesterday Tokyo closed down -0.7% for a weekly -0.4% dip. Hong Kong jumped another +1.2% for a +5.4% weekly surge. Shanghai was up +1.0% on Friday for a +2.5% weekly gain. Singapore ended up +0.8%. The ASX200 ended its Friday session downa minor -0.1% for a -0.2% weekly dip. And the NZX50 rose +0.5% on Friday to also record a -0.2% weekly dip.
The Fear & Greed Index ends the week in the 'fear' zone, and backing away from the 'neutral' zone of last week.
The price of gold will start today at US$2861/oz and up +US$11 from yesterday. And this is up +US$51/oz from a week ago. In between, gold hit its record high of US$2883/oz.
Oil prices are little-changed at just on US$71/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still at US$74.50/bbl. But these levels are -US$1.50 lower than week-ago levels.
The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.5 USc and down -20 bps from this time yesterday. A week ago it was at 56.7 USc, so little net change. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just under 54.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and down -10 bps from yesterday, down -30 bps from a week ago.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$97,785 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. But it is -6.8% lower than this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.3%. And we should note that El Salvador has ended its experiment where bitcoin was legal tender. It isn't anymore.
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125 Comments
A lot of negativity about Trump and what his administration is heading America towards. Very early in the piece though. The fact that even when he lost office in 2020 he still had a very big vote and sustained and increased that to succeed last year obviously evidences a huge level in support from Americans in general, twelve years worth. “Things” tend to move en masse in the USA population wise and it takes a bit of time for momentum to build. If though those expectations of being better off don’t materialise then yes “things” will certainly come to the boil.
Inflation expectations telling...reminds me of those who voted to get back on track, how's that going for you?
I voted to get rid of Labour/Greens.
Worked.
Why?
Did you actually think there would be change or was it just mindless dislike.
Those clowns just had to go.
And replace them with new clowns? With exactly the same circus?
It takes some sort of stupid to believe what we have now is a real change from previous, even more to have voted for it.
edit.
From RNZ headlines, clownship evidence
Government backpedals on some automatic speed reversals, says consultation now possible
Those clowns just had to go
Keep smashing yourself in the face then....we won't stop you.
Labour have to ask themselves, how could you have gone from single party rule to such a defeat. Its not for us here to explain., Perhaps you could articulate why Labour lost by so much? If you cannot answer, you cannot position for future victory.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has won a landslide victory in the country's general election.
With all votes tallied, Ms Ardern's centre-left Labour Party won 49.1%, bringing a projected 64 seats and a rare outright parliamentary majority. The opposition centre-right National Party won 26.8% in Saturday's poll - just 35 seats in the 120-seat assembly.
to
From the moment the votes started coming in on Saturday night, it was clear that change was on the cards. New Zealand’s voting public had demanded change at the ballot box.
Political commentators described this as a complete rejection of the legacy of former Prime Minister Dame Jacinda Ardern.
Pollster David Farrar told media this was the biggest swing since the emergence of the two-party system in 1938, serving as an indication of just how significant this turnaround was. Key Labour candidates lost electorate seats in defeats that no one saw coming.
Love how it's always about Labour and looking backwards... Any comment on the here and now IT...or are you going to deflect all day long? Perhaps we should cut and paste that article and just type in National for next year's election?
Because on one hand Jacinda (& Labour) had been telling everyone to ‘be kind’ to one another while people were losing their jobs or their businesses if they didn’t take an experimental gene therapy. That doesn’t go down well.
In the 2023 election 29 Labour mps were booted out of seats. That is two thirds of them.That’s what the NZ voters thought of the betrayal of the extraordinary mandate entrusted in them in 2020. Like it or lump it.
Yea great, they were shit. What were they replaced with? Why won't voters admit they actually voted for these clowns policies to be implemented?
A majority of people who vote don't really know what they're voting for, it's just a popularity contest between the leaders. MMP isn't fit for purpose in this sense. But they did have a choice, vote for a party that's bad or one that appears 'less bad'.
Both Labour and National don't represent who they originally were set up to anymore.
It's not even really a popularity contest. People in this country are stubbornly partisan, they'll vote Red or Blue based on the social identity they want to portray irrespective of the party's policies or performance.
Even funnier when people vote blindly for a party that'll undermine their personal circumstances. For example, a mate of mine is very pro-National. His wife is in ECE and was enjoying the steps towards pay parity until National repealed the Fair Pay Agreements Act in December 2023. I wonder how many people made redundant in the Public Sector voted National, they'll probably still blame Cindy.
Well we were hardly going to reward Labour by voting them in again.
We should have, so that they have to clean up their own mess. Now the other party has to do the clean up.
Only in algebra does two minuses make a plus. They were only capable, and very much so, of creating the mess. Another three years would have just heaped bad onto bad. That is why NZrs will choose not to extend parliamentary terms beyond three years. Just think if there had been eight not six years.
What mess are we talking about specifically? Is it the big pile of debt Labour racked up, which we'll tackle by handing out billions of dollars of tax cuts? The last thing I could think of doing if I found myself in a tonne of debt is cut back my income.
The mess was, Labour were spending a dollar to make 10 cents. Heavy on philosophical niceties, their actual delivery was bereft of any sort of intuition, efficiency or substance.
This is not to endorse National, but if it's a choice between doing nothing, and doing something extremely poorly, I'll choose nothing.
Because as Chris Trotter opined quite early in 2023 that the electorate had little option other than to vote for the least worst. That is evidenced in a way by the in, out, and in results of NZF. A handbrake in 2017, discarded in 2020 reinstalled 2023. Personally I haven’t voted for one of the major parties this century although I did vote for the Labour MP in our electorate when she stood because she was a gem, a hardworking stalwart for all of us.
the electorate had little option other than to vote for the least worst.
This is always the way.
"To summarize, no-one knows for sure what's behind the secular stagnation that NZ has been experiencing these past years. We do know the cause is not partisan. It has been happening under both National & Labour. That being so, it is entirely plausible that the vast numbers of Kiwis who are now pretending to work from home, hiring and promotion policies not based on merit, but on who one knows & pursuit of genetic based social engineering, along with endless going-nowhere Treaty debates which have consumed the energy of the country, together may account for all of our economic stagnation."
Looks to me its because we have borrowed to invest, looking for tax free RE profits, there is no payback to NZ, no jobs, no growth... sure buying units... but most smart investors look to land, even the rich buy up commercial cheap properties until they can join them and convert to bigger modern sites... Apart from agriculture we do not have access to much that is abundant and cheap, we have no strategic advantages outside of grass and abundant water. It has worked until it hasn't and now we have nothing to replace it with.
$360 billion private debt, 70% of bank lending to Re , shows we have not been borrowing for business ... of the rest 30%, what about 20% of that is agri and orchard kiwifruit etc, maybe 10% is SME, secured via property.
If you borrow for a business that has no yield you will get no growth.
$360 billion private debt, 70% of bank lending to Re , shows we have not been borrowing for business ...
Or, you can start a business with however much it costs you to register one at the companies office. I started one with about $500 and grew it to millions a year in revenue. And if it's profitable, your borrowings can be minimal.
But a new house costs *insert lots of money*, and most people don't have that sort of change lying around.
More than the debt, we have strangled new businesses by having such a procedural, resource intensive business operating environment. It's not enough to be the best in your field at what you do, you also have to wade through all the various health and safety regs, employment law, accounting requirements, etc etc. Once you grow to a certain amount of people you almost need an additional army of peripheral, non productive staff just to make you compliant, at which point your profitability (or productivity) goes out the window.
We have all these rules which are pitched at protecting us, but really it's about protecting relevant vested parties. It's not like bureaucracy, the law, or other regulatory bodies ever say "well, our job here is done, we'll shut up shop and let you all get on with it".
One of your best posts Pa1nter. Sick of the debt is required and 'interest rates are too high and causing xyz' narrative that ignores the alternative - to save and use your own equity.
We really are good at making life (all aspects) harder than it needs to be. It's going to collapse in a great heap as no one will be able to afford to do anything. We're already struggling to maintain status quo.
"Experimental gene therapy"?
And what have these voters got from their rage last election? A bunch of loony ecoterrorists planning to flood our environment with synthetic gene sequences. Bon appetite.
We got...
- Rid of Jacinda 9/10.
- We had a bonfire, not much fireworks 2/10.
- Rid of co-Governance 9/10 ( For a government that thought we needed more governance , they where crap at it themselves, ask the auditor general ).
- Rid of Robertson - 11/10 he was single handedly bankrupting us.
- We are getting rid of our woke news reporters... 7/10
We have not yet got answers to our problems, but Labour insisted we had no problems.... trust us, we didn't they said, out you go... we said.
Priorities I guess? Most of what you list is "social engineering", which of course comes and goes like any fashion trend, without anything more consequential as a paragraph in a historical text book.
This government on the other hand promises to greatly expand tearing our land to pieces and create mountains of waste, while the few extractivists make off like bandits.
Increase drilling for the pupose of extraction, products that wreak climate stability.
Massively increase tourism, as if we aren't already drowned in them, and associated environmental impacts.
Commercialise our conservation estate further. No room for nature to be left undisturbed. Got to make that extra dollar and once that's banked, spent on mindless consumption, look for more ways to squeeze a dollar.
Roll back fresh water protections. Nothing says green NZ like green waterways. And blue babies.
Flood the country with synthetic life forms which can never be eradicated once that line is crossed.
Reopen marine protected areas for commercial extraction.
The constant mind control through media reinforcing the grooowth narrative is of course good propaganda. Repetition, repetition.
I could go on about the vandalism this current bunch of greedy yeasty clowns are permanantly inflicting on our future, but hey we got rid of the last bunch because we didn't like woke reporters. Your kids applaud you.
@Baywatch
how's that going for you?
Better than before I voted for them
Can you name one metric that's improved? You guys always go quiet on this question....
Yeah since I got out of lockdown, pretty much everything improved. Those control freaks are not coming back anytime soon.
I thought the response was bipartisan? Anyhow, we'll see how your right wing nuts view individual rights with the arrival of the next pandemic? When it threatens the growth cults profit growth they'll be door knocking syringes in hand. Or maybe they will just let it blow through the population, hoping it doesnt get as bad as the black plague?
It was bipartisan initially and understandably so because NZ had to rely on the advice and administration of its experts in the field. It is common ground for example that that body were instrumental in the enforcement of a border closure. After that though, there was clearly mismanagement, and unfortunately for the Labour government that mostly issued from the MoH who they were obliged to defend for obvious reasons, and imagine that the above comment about being lockdown free refers primarily to the protracted isolation of Auckland during the second occurrence which produced some rather draconian and punitive initiatives by the government.
Big dense populations of humans are always going to create problems when it comes to spread of disease. Humans are different though, especially entitled. We have built this concrete technological wonderland as though it's the natural order of things. The more crowded, depleted and drowning in waste we become, the more vulnerable we become.
Was Auckland mishandled? Yes it was, because leading up to the pandemic the whole of human existance on these islands has been mishandled! The growth mantra puts unnecessary and exponentially increasing pressure on every aspect of life here! The pandemic itself was a product of human hubris!
Our family sailed through the pandemic, because we were already prepared for such an event. The world and NZ dodged a bullet. The disease killed a lot of people, but it could have been much worse!
Omicron was no worse than a cold. Madness to lockdown
Valid points but here you journey from consideration of the pandemic on a global scale to the situation within that of one family. Not being critical, and you undoubtedly would agree it is hardly that simple, but it does identify somewhat, because of the complexity, the fear of the unknown and the impact on individuals, why there has been just so much furore and diverse opinion on the topic. A threat that could not fail to bring out the worst and best in society regret to say, and any recurrence will be similar. Personally I align with your viewpoint that each family, household should be duty bound to take care of itself as far as is possible rather than rely on some sort of deliverance from the relative authorities.
The world and NZ dodged a bullet.
More like shot ourselves in the foot.
Were any lessons learned? Are people now working on hardening their immune systems by eating a meat based diet, catching a bit of sunlight and doing moderate exercise while eschewing all that is detrimental to health?
If a true pandemic happens. Let it burn. It’ll find its way to ourselves eventually. The weak and the frail will die. This is the path of nature (albeit Covid was created in a lab)
Get over it ...have a steak
Less cars smashing into bottle stores, Auckland CBD feels a bit safer, and I have not seen a gang patch recently.
No cell phones in class. More thinking around gov funding with tax payer money.
And no three waters. Biggest larceny seen in parliament since Tuku’s underpants.
Another smash to your face...keep going...
To keep it real, the Ram Raid Offending Bill passed in 2023 pre Coalition may have played a big part in less ram raids. Auckland CBD feeling safer is an anecdotal reckon from a guy who lives rurally, gang patches granted. More thinking around gov funding and tax payer money has resulted in a $2.9 billion tax break to landlords over 4 years and cancelled ferries at a cost. It remains to be seen what the cuts to public service deliver or take away but given Luxon thought trainee Police earned $90k when questioned during Police pay negotiations (they earn $51k) I doubt it fills many with confidence that he has much of an understanding about the public service.
Interest rates
Somewhat horrifying at the presser Trump when asked about DOGE admitted the young engineers got into the Government systems very easily.
One woud think that would send alarm bells on national security world wide.
Just had a thought about KiwiSaver. Now that some people's balances will be in the 100s of thousands, I wonder when it will start to be worthwhile for providers to provide cash incentives for switching similar to the mortgage industry?
Are there any regulations that prevent this? Does anyone have an experience of receiving an incentive to switch?
ASB and one of the other banks offered $100 to switch your KiwiSaver to them recently
Thanks. Would be nice to add a zero but it's a start. When the balances start growing they'll be making a considerable amount on those big accounts
This is from yesterday's "Breakfast briefing"
Note: Comments have been hidden because Google refused to deliver ads to this page.
So all comments have been erased because Google didn't like some of them. Hmmm, is that not big media censorship ?
Just a glitch in the Matrix /s
I didn't see the comments in question, but I've certainly noticed an increasing trend of censorship on here..
Could that be as a result of Trump friendly media owners, or am I taking this too far ?
I hadn't tracked yesterdays comments. I can tell you it degenerated into silly culture war slanging. Many violated our comment policy. When I find time, I will clean out the violations, and display them again. Yes, it is censorship of violations of the policy commenters signed up to, some serious. Calling others you disagree with 'pedophiles' isn't civil conversation. We don't have an absolutist approach. We require sensible adult comment. If you want unrestrained libel and Musk-type accusations, go to X.
Wow, I didn’t realise it’d reached that level of name-calling. Thanks for the clarification.
Some of the comments were downright puerile.
Thank you David.
Occassionally I've felt intimidated.
I receive more respect from posters on discus.
Silvi.
Maybe try to avoid mudslinging?
Good, thanks.
Tbh, you probably invite the nonsense with what I think is often quite over the top Trump-bashing. I dislike Trump, but I actually find the constant Trump bashing a bit off putting. The Dems were far from perfect but hardly ever attracted any editorial critique.
anyhow, it’s your prerogative
I used to think the concept of Trump Derangement Syndrome was a fallacy but I’m now a believer (update: not that I encourage anyone to use the term as like doom gloom merchant it is often used to try to offend or trigger those you disagree with)
‘Calling others you disagree with 'pedophiles' isn't civil conversation’
But constantly calling people ‘Doom Gloom Merchants’ is considered civil discourse? (which severely degrades the quality of the comments section).
Some consistency in moderation is required.
One is fine but the other is not and crosses the line. Most readers could easily discern that.
Your opinion of what civil discourse consists of is very different to mine.
Calling the fellow citizens I live amongst doom merchants is the opposite of civil discourse. It’s quite an arrogant term used by people who can’t handle ever being wrong about anything - so is used with the intent of belittling the person they are engaging with (when they don’t have an intelligent response to a given topic).
Another similar example would be the ‘ok boomer’ response - its intention is to offend instead of providing a rational/reasoned response. Both lazy use of the English language and shouldn’t be encouraged - especially if we desire a move towards a more unified future where we have mutual respect for one another (you know the cornerstone of any healthy relationship or society)
Calling someone a doom and gloom merchant is substantiated by their target's comments and is just good natured British style humour while the other one is an unsubstantiated criminal accusation. Most of us enjoy a bit of argy-bargy but know not to take it too far.
This is where we differ ZS - many get called doom gloom merchants because they wish house prices to fall in order to improvise affordability for FHB and to remove the financial and society instability that overpriced house prices have caused.
Ti improve the chances of prosperity and stability for future generations is a good thing - but it gets labelled as a doom and gloom view by vested interest who have over invested in property and would experience financial pain if prices were to continue to fall.
So these people you call doom gloom merchants aren’t really doom gloom merchants - they simply want what is best for their children and yet their get called a derogatory name for their positive aspirations - which is not a fair deal by any mean.
The only people I know who you could justify calling doom gloom merchants might be those who go join dooms day cults and have basements ready for ww3 which they predict is going to start tomorrow. Not people who simply want their kids to be able to buy a house without taking on a massive and risky mortgage.
I personally believe people have been brainwashed into thinking house prices falling and becoming more affordable is a bad thing - when in reality it is a highly positive thing for future generations - but those who are scared of that happening have decided it is a dooms day outcome. If anything it is these people calling others DGMs who may actually be the real DGMs - it’s quite a Orwellian mindset - ie you accuse others of the thing you are guilty of yourself.
The degree of insult will always differ in interpretation between the intender and the recipient. It is obvious though that commenting on this site has worsened of late , in both decorum and substance. I have been edited out often enough, but not recently, and those transgressions would pale relative to some of the ranting and abuse occurring nowadays. Obviously the editors have had enough of wasting their time in safeguarding the site from entries that are plainly unacceptable to normal and good standards. The limitations introduced next month may not stop the practice but it will reduce the pool and then perhaps a three strikes and you are suspended might be applied to those that remain.
Yeah I also don’t get why ‘woke’ gets banned but terms like Doom Gloom Merchant are good to go. Perhaps interest.co.Nz has many left leaning financial contributors who dislike the term woke (and perhaps why we have the anti Trump comments in articles these days). Other contributors say we can use whatever names we like to call each other and if people are offended by them that is their own issue - so consistency would say that this would apply to the term woke also. Otherwise the censorship happening on this platform is completely inconsistent and with serious biases.
You're talking across a bit of a spectrum there.
There's a doom and gloom merchant, who salivates at the thought of someone coming unstuck financially.
Then there's the wider view about actual housing affordability, which is a little distinct from a market rising and falling. There wouldn't be too many people opposed to an environment that produces attainable housing for all. That requires a totally different approach than hoping for it to all come crashing down, and somehow miraculously not taking most of everyone with it
In my view it’s Orwellian. Those who are afraid of better buying opportunities in the future for young people and improved financial and society stability (as private debt to GDP or prices to incomes or debt to income reduce) call this good scenario a dooms day situation and anyone who is in favour of it is therefore a Doom Gloom Merchant.
It is arse about face. It’s back to front from what I perceive as what is a favourable reality. Then again I never got wrapped up in the hysteria of prices going to the moon - but it is the people who did (and who over leveraged themselves financially) who appear to use the term DGM the most frequently as they are afraid that the future might be better for other people instead of themselves. Therefore those people must be silenced and a narrative or reality that best suits their own financial interests maintained.
I think that any site under the influence of any editor is capable of bias, even unconsciously. In the days before the web, newspapers throughout NZ were freely perceived as being pro one political party or the other. Nothing is preventing any poster here from contesting what they may consider as being biased in the actual column. But they should do so in a considered and informed manner, not ill tempered and without offering any reasoning. It’s not an adults only site but there is unquestionably too much immature and thoughtless comment taking place. For instance many take issue, and I at times have too, with PDK’s contributions yet few offer the research, reasoning and sincerity that he provides.
Those who are afraid of better buying opportunities in the future for young people and improved financial and society stability (as private debt to GDP or prices to incomes or debt to income reduce) call this good scenario a dooms day situation and anyone who is in favour of it is therefore a Doom Gloom Merchant.
It's a nice intention, with a couple of caveats:
- social stability isn't improving just because some middle class kids buy a house instead of renting one.
- if the system doesn't change, there won't be better buying opportunities in the future, because all the dynamics are angling towards houses getting less attainable, not more. LVRs, DTIs, the ridiculous amounts our councils are demanding for consents to cover their financial ineptitude, constantly ratcheting up building regs, etc, all serve to put it further and further out of reach.
We are staring down the barrel of having 3rd world level wealth disparities, and we are largely blind to it, because everyone's pushing their own niche perspective.
And the same for team DGM who throw spruik(er) around just as often (usually more often recently) Or just the one side that matches your bias?
Remove both in my opinion - neither is beneficial for promoting quality discourse on this site.
Anyone calling someone else a derogatory name in a normal discourse obviously does not have a legitimate argument . When one resorts to obscenities it actually shows their lack of knowledge or maybe intelligence.
Aotearoan moves to Sydney and gets an $800,000 mortgage to dump down on an apartment with a 5% deposit. Non-news? Perhaps. Does it sound like Sydney is desperate to keep the Ponzi momentum humming? 100%.
I wouldn't call this subprime, but it's looking something similar will be inevitable in the not-too-distant future both in Aussie and in Aotearoa.
A New Zealander has made a surprising claim about getting into the Australian property market after starting out with “no expectations” she’d ever be able to afford it.
Libby Angus, 29, works in marketing. She’s originally from New Zealand and didn’t have any “rich parents” around when she decided she wanted to try and buy in Sydney.
Sydney is famously Australia’s most expensive city. The median house price has soared past $1.5 million, and the median rent is now $775 per week.
Ms Angus had heard all the horror stories about how hard it is to buy right now and she was braced for her dreams of home ownership to be squashed.
“I hate to say it but it was relatively easy,” she told news.com.au.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/thought-it-was-going…
So the New Zealander became an "Aotearoan" ?
Aotea-groan....... Let's just stick with being called Kiwi's.
Why?
I would have though you would be cheering this on Dr Y. Any attempts to pump the respective Ponzis are usually seen as a good thing.
Nothing to do with nationality. Aussie doesn't really care. What is important is those stamp duties that need to keep flowing at any cost - key revenue source for the NSW govt. And if they have to take a haircut on those duties simply to get revenue, then so be it.
However, I personally think it's potentially a sign of desperation from the bureaucrats. Time will tell.
Careful Yvil, my comment suggesting that ".nz" stood for New Zealand and not Aotearoa got deleted. Mind you, I'm very lazy, so it could be I subconsciously don't appreciate it when others look like they're trying hard...
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/work-in-progress-winston-peters-hints-fo…
$5mil plus property owners... here comes Xmas....
.
Median of 1.5 mil AU. That’s 1.7 mil NZD. I wonder what you get for that? Within 10km of city probably lucky to get a townhouse? You’d need a big pay rise for that to pay off.
1.7 mil Sydney, 1 mil Auckland. You’d need to earn about 70% more for it to be worthwhile. And I suspect the median Sydney house is not as good. Maybe that move to Aus isn’t as great as advertised.
This is an apples to oranges comparison. When Australia says house prices they actually mean houses. Whilst the NZ metric is actually all dwellings.
Out of interest I looked up Auckland’s median. It’s 1mil down from 1.3 mil. When you see it that way it’s quite a drop. https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz
It only needs to fall another around approx 10% to be back at late 2016 prices. And that is nominal prices....
What I'm finding weird, and I'm probably the only one, is how over the years what was once simply having a home, has become "getting into the property market". And how what is simply a normal human requirement has become "a dream" to achieve.
Everything must be an investment, which has implications, and investor is now part of the "class" system.
Is this the level of brainwashing we've succumbed to?
Isn’t it just change though? At some stage it was a dream to own a TV or a PC.
And even in my grandads day, some real estate agent was probably selling some house in ponsonby that at the time was considered an absolute shithole as a family dream.
It's slick marketing by the media and banks. The language change has happened over the last 30 years, all about creating a sense of urgency.
LNG. I felt sorry for the Canadians when the media session with the Japanese Prime Minister in the Oval Office revealed that the Americans and Japan will move together on LNG from Alaska just when the Canadians have in place now the ability to ship LNG to Japan and lessen their reliance on the US.
It appears the large orders last week for military purchases from the US defence industry has bought Japan some time, as well as Nippon Steel now very much in play if Japan invests into US steel it seems being held over them gave Japan some breathig space, of a kind.
However the retailitory tariff bill being rushed through Congress upends so much. And leaves more questions than answers going forward.
Once NZ needs to import LNG we will be at the mercy of international energy prices.
Yes.
Glad we are about to "Drill baby Drill"........ still any new oil/gas discovery, will take years to produce.
Shane Jones, the dusky Northern bro Industrialist!
We have been looking for a while including off castle point …. Not found much….,
It's not just about discovery, they know where a lot of it is, but the barrel price dictates whether it's worth accessing.
I think a lot of people also ignore that we are hideously far from a lot of global markets for our oil/gas reserves which further makes it less viable.
It irks me that this is special under the treaty and that…. Blah blah blah.
Everyone likes food at a funeral. She is not special. Her ethnicity is not special. The policy was for unavoidable costs full stop. Simple.
This country is going to shit.
It is maori custom to feed all visitors to a tangi. That could be several hundred people over the week. It is also customary for other families to give koha towards tangi costs. The 1000 bucks may have been only part of the food costs.
Every European funeral I have been to has had food afterwards. Where money is tight people bring a plate.
There is no difference. None. Nada.
A Tangi is for multiple days, and people are staying at the marae.Would be several meals.
Fijian Indians have a funeral that lasts a week and can involve supplying food, drinks, tobacco and kava and then repeat it again a year later.
Cheap casket yes, food no, hold a give a little or bring $10 each. next it will be wakes for Irish...
Might be cringe to run givealittle when you're seperated. Imagine the cost to the poor taxpayer if they were still together! How many ex's are we up for?!
The grants are tied to the deceased person( presumably on a benefit), not the ex's.
Under the terms explained it seemed pretty reasonable to me. I'd much prefer we didn't need such backstops but it seems we do. But then I've never been a great fan of the anglo Saxon shove em in the ground fast as and get back to work, out of site out of mind.
Hope they enjoyed the feed.
I’m a bit 50/50. I can see how funerals are much more important to Maori, they genuinely do a much better send off than we do. But on the other hand that’s my hard earned tax money, I’m happy if it’s used to provide someone the necessities, but I’m not sure that extends to a nice feed for the extended whanau.
I can see how funerals are much more important to Maori
I could get myself banned by saying what i think about this...
No one is more important in death due to race.
+1 its not often I'm lost for (acceptable) vocabulary however JJs comment doesn't deserve any filtered response
Surely it's obvious that Jimbo meant the funeral ritual, nothing to do with the race of a person.
I’ve been to tangis and European funerals. There was a notable difference, in fact I’d say a gulf. I’m sure if it was the other way around you may have spotted it.
And I think you are (deliberately) twisting my comment. I was talking about the ceremony, not about whether death is more important to Maori.
Incidentally I went to a Tangi with boomer racists (like you guys?), even they admitted it was significantly more respectful than our ceremonies.
"...boomer racists (like you guys?)"
I suggest you refer to David Chastons' comment about having "sensible, adult..." conversations above.
He hasn’t banned you yet, so I suspect I'm small fry.
You are right... you are no one.
I agree with JimboJones. Diversity comes with a price.
Western Europeans choose not to go to much bother when it comes to funerals. We are generally not very "spiritual" which we obviously regard as a good and sensible thing. Christianity is also not that big on funerals. Didn't Jesus say, "Let the dead bury the dead"?
Dead bodies creep us out, we call them corpses. We make zombie movies about dead people where we recoil in horror and then gleefully blast them with shotguns.
We believe in Western scientific principles. The body is just a vessel. To spend more than the minimum on a funeral, especially when you cannot afford it, is not very sensible. Most of us would rather be incinerated in a cardboard box and let the money saved be used to help pay off the children's mortgage.
No one is more important in life due to race. Yet our history says otherwise.
One could replace race with title, money, intelligence, possessions, authority etc.
The whanau can pitch in themselves if they're hungry. If I still had that $1000 tax in my pocket, I could spend it on an overdue dentist appointment.
Got a mate that spent $30000 on a tangi when his grandson died. No offers of help I am aware of?
It's just a part of their tradition.arriving family's are called onto the marae, and offer a sealed envelope of money as a koha towards costs. No mention of amounts or asking publicy for money is done. Though lately they will put a bank account number on a Facebook notice as fewer people carry cash. They would never publicly acknowledge someone giving a large amount, nor belittle anyone giving a small amount. Individual family pride means a lot on the marae.
One would hope shared costs would be the norm, but the bottom line was a $30000 bill for my friend in this particular case. The whole circumstances were an absolute tragedy. It received national attention at the time. The tangi was a large event, but I would say the last thing a family needs is to be forced into debt, after an already terrible situation.
US Fed puts out their 2025 monetary policy report - juicy - they announced they are ending Quantitative Tightening in June.
After a $2 trillion reduction, lowering the balance sheet to below $6.4 trillion and selling securities holdings down $300 billion since June 2024.
This news will hit the markets Monday and front running will begin.
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