And then there was none.
According to the NZ Institute of Economic Research's latest quarterly 'consensus' forecasts, there will be zero GDP growth in the year to March 2025.
That forecast is down from the estimate of 0.6% growth in the 12 months to March 2025 made in the last quarterly forecasts issued in June. The June forecasts themselves had been revised down from earlier forecasts issued in March.
Official GDP figures for the June quarter 2024 are set to be released on Thursday and are expected to show that the economy contracted again in the quarter. If that proves to the case, it will mean that the NZ economy has shrunk in five of the past seven quarters.
NZIER senior economist Ting Huang said the downward revisions in economic forecasts "reflect expectations for sluggish economic growth over the coming year".
She said recent data, such as NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion measures of business confidence and firms’ own trading activity "also suggest a deteriorating growth outlook for the coming year".
"Beyond 2025, lower interest rates are expected support a recovery in economic activity."
Indeed, the forecasts suggest that in the 12 months to March 2026 there will be 2.2% growth in GDP.
Contributors to the consensus forecasts include economists from NZIER itself, Treasury, the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) and the country's 'big five' banks.
Huang said forecasts for household spending also suggest a deteriorating outlook for the coming year, with the annual average growth revised lower from 0.5% to 0.2% for 2025.
"Households have cut back sharply on discretionary spending as they face increased mortgage repayments.
"On top of this is the uncertainty over household income due to a slack labour market, and this is expected to weigh on household spending over the coming year," Huang said.
"The residential investment outlook for 2025 was slightly less negative than the previous forecasts, but growth forecasts for the subsequent years were revised lower. While it is expected that lower interest rates should support a renewed interest in residential investment over the coming years, some of this will be offset by the uncertainty over mortgage serviceability given the softer labour market," she said.
The inflation outlook has been revised lower for both 2025 and 2026 as well, with forecasts pointing an annual inflation as measured by the Consumers Price Index (CPI) of 2.3% by March 2025 and staying near the Reserve Bank's 2% inflation target mid-point (of the 1% to 3% targeted range) in the subsequent years.
"The revised forecasts point to expectations for annual CPI inflation becoming anchored over the coming years," Huang said.
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