Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
UnityMoney trimmed three of its fixed rates. All rates are here. Update: ANZ cut many rates. Details here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac has both raised and cut some key TD rates by up to 20 bps. More here. Rabobank cut all their rates today too. UnityMoney also trimmed its TD rates for 1 year and longer. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here. Update: ANZ cut many TD and savings rates. And raised one. Details here.
STEEP DROPS
According to Statistics NZ, building consents were issued for 2178 new dwellings in June, down -36% compared to June last year. In Auckland, they fell to the lowest of any month since January 2018. In the 12 months to June this year, nationally 33,627 new dwelling consents were issued, down -24% compared to the previous 12 months.
LOOKING UP, OUT OF A DEEPER HOLE
Latest ANZ Business Outlook survey shows firms showing more confidence about the future even as they report worsening current trading conditions.
SEEKING VALUE? OR JUST BUYING CHEAP STUFF
According to NZ Post research, we are buying more online, but spending less per transaction. That is +8% more volume, but -1% less spend.
LENDING HO HUM, BUT NOT CRASHING
It will be no surprise to know that loan balances are growing only marginally and new loan activity is weak, as reported in a set of RBNZ data today. This is entirely consistent with what we know about current economic activity. Perhaps one surprise is that this data shows no rise in loan distress levels.
SAVING MODEST, SO SAVERS WORK THEIR BALANCES HARDER
Household bank deposits rose a quite minor +$200 mln in June from May to $46.3 bln. The average monthly change over the past five years has been +$1.1 bln, so this June data is 'weak'. So it may be no surprise that households have been trying to make their bank balances work harder. Transaction account balances fell -$940 mln, savings account balances were little-changed, but term deposit balances rose more than +$1 bln as they sense the end of higher (6%) TD rate offers. Still, +$1 bln in a month is not an unusual rise over the past few years.
TROUBLE AT MILLS
Sawn timber demand remains very low locally. Many mills have already supplied all their orders and report forward orders are very sparse. Difficult decisions will need to be made about production levels. Less log supply due to much lower harvest volumes around New Zealand means log prices have remained stable. But the overall demand for logs isn't being bolstered by China or India to any great extent.
BROWN'S LOCAL WEALTH FUND GETS LEGS
Auckland Council is pushing ahead with the Mayor's Future Fund initiative that was confirmed in the Council's 2024-34 Long-term Plan. The council is now looking to appoint two roles – an investment manager and a technical advisor – to develop a statement of investment policy and objectives for the fund.
LOW DEMAND + HIGH SUPPLY = RECORD HIGH PRICES ???
The World Gold Council updated its Q2-2024 data today with some interesting changes. Gold demand is weak, in fact, June quarter jewellery demand was the lowest since this series began in 2000 (pandemic excepted). Jewellery is the single largest category of demand for gold. Retail investor demand was uninspiring, back to a level first seen in March 2010. EFT demand was negative again (net outflow) and has been for nine consecutive quarters now. Industrial demand is always insignificant. And central bank demand came in its second lowest over the past two years. In fact it was almost half Q1 buying. Appetite by Central banks may be tiring. So it is a curiosity that the gold price rose in the quarter to a record high. And that is an especial curiosity when you know that gold supply from mines and scrap is still hovering near its all-time high in Q2-2024.
A KEY INDICATOR OF LENDING QUALITY
Detailed RBNZ research has confirmed that the proportion of total loans that are nonperforming is a key indicator of the quality of a lender’s assets and the overall health of the financial system. There is rigour in this claim from overseas research but that is now confirmed for New Zealand. More specifically, housing lending arrears appear to be a good nearterm predictor of housing non-performing loans. By the time borrowers miss payments, the chances are high they may not recover.
PHOENIX PREVENTION
In one of the first incidence of its kind, a company director has felt the immediate impact of an automatic ban preventing him running a company. In April this year Hugh Lloyd was sentenced in the Auckland District Court to 6 months home detention after a successful prosecution by Inland Revenue. He was charged with aiding and abetting Scanlan IT Staff Ltd to take PAYE and other deductions from employee wages, but not paying those deductions to Inland Revenue as required. It was a fairly straightforward and typical prosecution of its type, but the difference is that in other recent similar court cases, the directors couldn’t run a new business because they were either bankrupt or in prison. He looked to carry on trading a new company while serving a home detention sentence.
LOOKING ON THE BRIGHT SIDE
The Q2-2024 CPI in Australia rose to 3.8%, exactly as analysts expected. Their June month inflation indicator came in at the same 3.8%. Markets seems to have focused on the 'trimmed mean' quarter-on-quarter rate of +0.8% which was lower than expected - and concluded the RBA is likely to hold rates unchanged next week.
CHINA SLIDES
China's official July factory PMI fell slightly into a further contraction. Their official services PMI fell to a very minor expansion. Both were about what was expected, but neither is very promising.
THEY GOT THEIR INFLATION; RATE RISE FOLLOWS
Update: The Bank of Japan has raised its official policy rate from 0.1% to 0.25% with a +15 bps hike today. They also said they will cut their bond buying activity. This has been seen as an aggressive move that signals the central bank's growing confidence in the recovery of the domestic economy and its concern about the sharply weaker yen. All eyes now turn to tomorrow's US Fed decision.
SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates are probably firmer today across the curve. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.46% and a new 115 day low. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -17 bps from this time yesterday to 4.16%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 2.15%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.40% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.40% and up +3 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps at 4.15%. Their 2yr is now at 4.36%, so that curve is now inverted by -21 bps.
EQUITIES VERY MIXED
The NZX50 is up a mere +0.1% in late trade. But the ASX200 is up +1.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Wednesday trade down -0.4%. Hong Kong is has bounced back up +1.4% at its open. Shanghai is up +1.2%. Singapore is up a minor +0.1%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 down -0.5%
OIL HOLDS
The oil price is up +50 USc from this time yesterday at US$75.50/bbl in the US, and little-changed at US$78.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS SLIGHTLY
Today the carbon price rose to now $51.50/NZU and up from $51/NZU at this time yesterday. Please note that we have a new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD UP
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$27 from this time yesterday at US$2406/oz.
NZD RECOVERS
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday, now back up at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up more than a full +1c at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are +20 bps firmerat 54.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now up at 68.3.
BITCOIN RECOVERS A LITTLE
The bitcoin price is +0.6% firmer from this time yesterday, now at US$66,368. after yesterday's big fall. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.
USE OF AI
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67 Comments
"So it is a curiosity that the gold price rose in the quarter to a record high"
No more curios than the keystrokes into a digital register that are also on a high? It's called, lack of trust in The System, and pretty soon that sentiment is going to spread to many more curious things in an attempt to avoid the coming Inflationary surge. Japan seems to have seen it.
Decidedly lower US real yields ignites gold demand in anticipation of something bad happening.
A big picture macro chart to always bear in mind. As total economic debt increases over time, the level of real yields at which the economy can remain functional becomes lower and lower. Link
Read this! https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350362148/tax-warning-property-flippers
Is anyone surprised? Outside of Brightline, the IRD's "Intention Rule" may be applied. Over the coming years some who thought capital gains were automatically free of tax may be in for a rude and very expensive awakening.
"investors who hold a property for at least (2 years) are not automatically handed a tax bill for any gains they make on the property."
Many won't realise that if the IRD ask, and they fail the Intention Test after that 2 years, they'll still be the recipients of a tax bill on the Income derived. And with some of the software that the IRD undoubtedly has, there's probably going to be quite a bit of questioning going on.
Also given the recent hack and slash of the public sector workforce, many may have the jitters around job security and could be motivated to seek out these questionable transactions.
Especially if the Government leans on the IRD to improve tax revenue to help balance the books, a big talking point at the moment, they may leave no stone unturned.
Recall PM Kirk’s third Labour government introduced “The Property Speculation Tax” in the 1970s to thwart speculation and dampen down a then property boom. It worked and so much so PM Muldoon left it in place until into his second term. At the time I had an uncle a long term IRD employee who said Kirk’s legislation was effective through its simplicity. Might have prevented some of the subsequent anguish and distortions inflicted on the NZ property market had it remained in place?
Or something as simple as a sole tradie builder moving house 4 - 5 times in the space of 10 years. The IRD is clear that those who work in Residential Construction may still be taxed on sales that occur outside the business.
A red flag would be a builder claiming all the deductions from a home office, changing address 4 - 5 times in the space of 10 years and each time selling for a profit.
Re: The NZ Post research - you've got the wrong link in there. But from that research I found this bit interesting and positive for NZ businesses -
The other good news for online retailers is that around three-quarters of online spending in Q2 2024 was with local retailers. It appears that, despite the rise of low cost international marketplaces, Kiwi shoppers remain committed to supporting local retailers through the good times and the bad.
The council is now looking to appoint two roles – an investment manager and a technical advisor – to develop a statement of investment policy and objectives for the fund.
Well, hopefully those jobs are open to ALL New Zealanders, and even non-New Zealanders so they can attract the best of the best. As opposed to a recent job vacancy for an international investment analyst at the NZ Super Fund that made speaking Te Reo a mandatory job requirement.
They don't call themselves Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation for nothing.
The individual specifically said fluent te reo was required.
Maybe i'm on the spectrum, but I tend to prefer facts and truth.
Taking off his turban, they said, is this man a Jew?
'Cause working for the clampdown
They put up a poster saying we earn more than you
When we're working for the clampdown
Massachusetts is one of the It's one of the wealthiest states in America, with residents of its fanciest zip code luxuriating in $3 million red-brick apartments. But a study shows that the writing is on the wall as migrants will drain state coffers of a staggering $1.8 trillion over the next two years.
https://cis.org/Report/Massachusetts-Case-Study-Mass-Immigration-and-We…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13689123/wealthy-sanctuary-sta…
If not now, when?
Global population has trebled since WW2 & increased by a third since 2000. Mostly in poor countries unlikely to change behavior because they are riven by religious dogma, racism & patriarchal intolerance.
Are we not our brothers keepers / you reap what you sow: you choose.
1 Timothy 5:8 Amplified Bible (AMP)
If anyone fails to provide for his own, and especially for those of his own family, he has denied the faith [by disregarding its precepts] and is worse than an unbeliever [who fulfills his obligation in these matters].
Charity begins at home.
Well before WW2 if you consider the Irguns. Recall an elderly Jewish gentleman in the USA telling me he and his brother made it out of Austria in 1938, got down through Turkey and arrived off the coast near to Haifa on a fishing boat which they scuttled on a sand bank and swam ashore (some didn’t make it) and that under some international treaty of the time made them survivors rather than refugees and that made all the difference. I suspect, because the family had had wealth they were involved with the Irgun terrorists whose activity pre WW2 is now largely ignored. Their parents and a sister were lost in the concentration camps. Nasty times back then. Nasty times today too. Things change and stay the same.
The stats above on loans and bank deposits are of course mostly a mirror image. Bank loans create bank deposits (new loans add to deposits, loan repayments takeaway). It would be great if more people understood this simple reality. Then we could have a sensible conversation about where savings come from!
NZ$/AU $4,105. Another all-time high. I wonder why that's happening? It wouldn't be in anticipation of Inflation breaking out again, would it? Why that happens could be one of many economic or geopolitical events. But as David suggests above - it's curious. One synonym of curious, being 'concerning'.
Disgraced ex-NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian's lifetime pension (AUD200K) will be unaffected despite failed 'severe corruption' finding.
Berejiklian was NSW premier from January 2017 until October 2021 — a period of four years and eight months, which means she barely missed out on additional perks afforded to ex-premiers who served for five years.
Those perks would have included free air travel, office staff and access to cars and drivers, and lasted for 12 months after retirement, according to the Australian Associated Press.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/07/30/gladys-berejiklian-icac-corruption…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jul/31/middle-east-crisis-l…
Middle East crisis: Hamas says leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran – latest updates
what could possibly go wrong
also looks like Kamila Harris is hard for trump to put down, shaping up to be a good test match
Also convicted of 34 felony charges, found to have sexually abused someone by a jury, the oldest presidential nominee ever, he needs to wear adult diapers to protect himself from shitting his pants. Lately told his nephew to just let his disabled son die, because he was disabled and expensive to look after. 90% of the people he worked closely with in government last time have publicly stated he is a terrible person who should not be allowed back in the White House. When he lost the election in 2020, he held a meeting in the oval office and discussed the possibility of invoking marshal law and seizing voting machines in a last ditch attempt at overturning the election result. He then tried to get his vice president Mike Pence to overturn electoral college results, which Pence refused. Then he incited a crowd to attack the government buildings. The crowd chanted "Hang Mike Pence" while they stormed the capital buildings and constructed a makeshift gallows. Trump did not ask them to stop, but laughed that Pence 'deserved it'. He joked about a democrats husband when they were attacked by a hammer wielding attacker, and almost died. Oh and he recently pulled out of a debate, because he is scared of debating Kamala Harris.
My point is, I am not sure Dennis would like to be compared to Trump.
Cantor Fitzgerald is a US financial institution that works directly with the Federal Reserve - one of only 24 "primary dealers" with the right to trade US government securities with the Fed.
The CEO just announced they're going to offer a Bitcoin lending product. He also said Cantor Fitzgerald already owns a "shedload" of Bitcoin. BTC holders will not sell their stack for fiat. They will borrow against it.
When the price of BTC goes up (partially due to fiat debasement) you will be able to take out a new loan that pays off the old loan, and provides fresh capital to use or invest elsewhere. Nothing new. The wealthy have been doing this with their real estate and equity portfolios for a long time.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-27/cantor-fitzgerald-to…
The Q2-2024 CPI in Australia rose to 3.8%, exactly as analysts expected. Their June month inflation indicator came in at the same 3.8%. Markets seems to have focused on the 'trimmed mean' quarter-on-quarter rate of +0.8% which was lower than expected - and concluded the RBA is likely to hold rates unchanged next week.
From ABS:
The most significant price rises were Housing (+5.5%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.3%)... and Transport (+4.2%).
Why don't Australians just live in cardboard boxes, stop eating and going to work? Typical entitled Aussies.
Albanese is looking like a one-term Prime Minister.
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