Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news away from the global geopolitical struggles, the economic news was only 'average' over the weekend.
In the week ahead, the key local data is our September labour market situation which is due Wednesday. More here.
Then on Thursday (NZT), the US Fed will review its monetary policy position, quickly followed on Saturday (NZT) by their non-farm payrolls report for October.
There will be a raft of PMI updates this week too all for October. And a big set of CPI updates are due this week, the most interesting will be from the EU, Korea, and Turkey. Japan is also due to review its monetary policy decision this week, as well as some second-tier countries like the UK and Brazil.
And we must not overlook we will be into the meat of the global earnings reporting season this week, which could also be influential.
But first, following Friday's surprise surge in US economic growth, details released over the weekend confirmed the sharper than expected rise in consumer spending, up +0.7% in September from the prior month. Their core PCE is up +3.7% for the year. The appetite for both goods and services rose at about the same rate. Personal income rose at a consistent +0.3% from the prior month. Their savings rate eased back marginally.
But behind the consumption rise, there are signs that Americans are avoiding big-ticket items. Firms are reporting softer demand or a preference for less expensive alternatives. It seems the more you have to think about a purchase, the less likely you will make it.
So far, with nearly half of companies reporting, the Wall Street earnings season is developing into a good one, despite some high-profile misses. Of the 245 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 77% of them beat earnings expectations.
In China, profits earned by their big industrial firms fell by -9.0% from a year earlier in the first nine months of 2023, amid weak demand at home and abroad and persisting margin pressures. The decrease followed a -11.7 % slump in the prior period, so the situation is easing. Things have turned up smartly in the past two months even if they still lag year-ago levels.
Australia has had the same difficulty we had, getting the EU to agree to a trade deal, despite their better hand. The sticking point was access for agricultural products. The top EU officials are Eastern European, with the EU trade chief from Latvia, and their Agriculture boss from Poland, so expectations should not have been high for the weekend 'last ditch' effort at a ministers meeting at the G7. Not unexpectedly those talks collapsed. Australia wants access for its farm products, the EU wants access to Australian minerals. But domestic EU politics couldn't bridge the gap. Earlier in 2023 New Zealand took the crumbs of what the EU offered; the Aussies have not.
The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from this time Saturday, still at 4.85%. A week ago it was at 4.93%. Their key 2-10 yield curve is still less inverted, now by -17 bps. Their 1-5 curve is inverted by -64 bps and little-changed. Their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is little-changed too at -56 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.82% and down -2 bps from Saturday. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.74%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is -1 bps lower at 5.55%. A week ago it was at 5.62%.
The price of gold will start today at US$2006/oz and up +US$20/oz from Saturday to start the week. A week ago we at US$1982/oz.
Oil prices have risen +50 USc today to be now at just under US$85/bbl in the US. The international Brent price has risen more, up +US$1.50/bbl now just under US$90/bbl. But these latest price levels are still lower than a week ago.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.1 USc and marginally softer from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are holding at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are just on 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today unchanged at just under at 68.2. This time last week it was at 68.4, so again, little change.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$34,409 and up +2.2% from this time Saturday. Last week it made a notable +14% move up. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.
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67 Comments
The six members of the EEC emerged out of the Marshall Plan aiming to create a common market of self sufficiency. Ended up with near to 30 members largely dependent on Russian energy, American armaments and Chinese manufacturing. But you are right if they sorted out all the historic internal cross border histrionics, and the many other inefficiencies, they could feed a lot more than just their own population.
Remember the fossil-energy-to-food ratio. Never forget it.
https://ourworldindata.org/fertilizers
https://www.fao.org/3/i6895e/i6895e.pdf
https://www.fertilizer.org/about-fertilizers/how-are-fertilizers-made/
'Nitrogen-based fertilizers are primarily manufactured through the Haber-Bosch process, a method developed over 100 years ago to create ammonia by heating and pressurizing nitrogen from the air over a hydrogen source (typically from natural gas or coal).'
I keep saying, we're eating our way through fossil stocks - and ex them, I don't think Europe can feed itself for very long (via depleting soils, post application).
Remember the nuclear-energy-to-food ratio. Never forget it.
"Four Danish companies – Topsoe, Copenhagen Atomics, Alfa Laval and Aalborg CSP – and two state-owned Indonesian companies – Pupuk Kaltim and Pertamina New & Renewable Energy – have signed an MoU for the development of a 1 million tonnes per year, nuclear-powered ammonia project for fertiliser production in Bontang, Indonesia.
...The proposed project will have a 1 GW electrolysis capacity, powered by Copenhagen Atomics’ thorium molten salt reactors (twenty-five small modular units). Topsoe’s solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) technology and its ammonia synthesis technology will both be used in the project.
...The outlook of contributing to better food conditions for 45 million people in Indonesia, while leaving a close to zero carbon footprint is absolutely amazing. This is a very promising and progressive project, and we are excited to be able to support with our world-class Power-to-X solutions.
https://www.ammoniaenergy.org/articles/nuclear-powered-ammonia-producti…
Oh...Danmark! Small agricultural country with a dominating dairy Company (Arla Foods). Similar population as New Zealand and world leading in social housing and active transport (second to The Netherlands in bicycle use). The Danish invested their savings in the development of Maersk Line, worlds biggest shipping line, Vestas, world leading wind turbine manufacturer and Novo-Nordisk, the developer of Ozempic worlds leading and Hollywoods favourite weight loss medicine. And more to come according to "profile". This is how you divert your economy and not allocate your money into a housing Ponzi scheme as New Zealand.
Europe / Legislators Vote To Increase Renewables Share After Last-Minute Concessions On Nuclear
New rules mean reactors can be used for ammonia and hydrogen production
https://www.nucnet.org/news/legislators-vote-to-increase-renewables-sha…
Hydrogen is looking better for ICE's. New Atlas is reporting an Austrian firm is pull 200 HP from a water injected, turbo charged hydrogen fuelled ICE; https://newatlas.com/automotive/avl-water-injected-hydrogen-engine/
And CNN is reporting a major find of 'White' hydrogen which 'conventional wisdom' has held as being impossible; https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/29/climate/white-hydrogen-fossil-fuels-…
While these could be argued to be the vain flailings of a desperate world while we melt down, they are none the less interesting. Population however remains unsolved.
White hydrogen is another non-renewable extractive option that we will burn through in a matter of years while not addressing the real problems.
Hydrogen for cars is just fall too inefficient https://images.app.goo.gl/vaEcKJz7HfkMVW6T8. Electric is far more efficient but still no sustainable. Longer term, we need to be thinking about less movement, not maintaining (or growing) the status quo.
You may be right about the first two, I'm not sure either way, but for the last comment you are just as much in denial and simply do not understand the species.
The human race has not once stood still in its history. We have always travelled. To say we need to stop is like saying we need to stop breathing. Plus you are ignoring the core problem. Even if we stop travelling, we will still be faced with the root problem - too much population. How do you solve that one?
Electric cars/bikes and more bike lanes are symptoms of exactly this. They are simply more energy efficient transport options. A bike is somewhere around 95% efficient (plus only transports a person and an extra 15kg - the bike weight), battery bikes/cars are around 80-90% efficient. Hydrogen fuel cells are somewhere around 50% efficient. ICE super efficient diesels are around 30% efficient and petrol cars are maybe 20% efficient.
So when you see people raging about EVs and bike lanes, just realise they are screaming at the wind, energy issues are what is driving the switch as much as GHG emissions/global warming.
Unless dedicated cycle lanes move from the side of the road I still wouldn't use them. Its the dickheads in the Utes that think trying to clip you off your bike is a fun game and unless you can pedal faster than a bus its no better. There is a reason the only cycling I do is in my garage.
There is research going on to improve the performance/practicality of electrochemical reduction of nitrogen to ammonia. There's some good progress being made, but it remains to be seen how it can be brought out of the lab to the scale needed. And then we will need the electricity to power it of course.
For example: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05108-y
Tomorrow night we get Eurozone Q3 GDP and it might be negative.......
Exactly, problem solved.
When the shtf we can then make the changes or implement preventative measures. Until then you are p1ss1ing into the northwester
What about the slash that gets left on hillsides. You environmentalists have caused damage to the people of the east coast with people dying because of you and billions of dollars of infrastructure being wiped out.
The environmentalists didn't clear fell the exotic forest down, nor the original indigenous forest.
The clarity (or rather lack of it) of most North Island rivers testament to the soil runoff that is continually being stripped away.
Inappropriate land use on erosion prone country.
The hills will eventually be barren and support little but scrubby weeds.
.
Next big domino, Williams?
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/finance/d-day-looms-for-williams-corp
You should have a look at the companies register. Search for "Williams Corporation".
There's something like 57 different companies, including Williams Corporation Trading 1 Limited right through to Williams Corporation Trading 25 Limited. A bunch of WLG and AKL T1, T2, T3 etc Limited companies. Quite a sophisticated array of companies, why would someone be compelled to have so much separation?
A sinkhole, toxic gas and the $2 billion mistake behind Snowy 2.0's blowout - ABC News
Pumped Hydro - "how hard could it be?"
Not a balanced article; conflates 'money' with energy. The latter is essential to society, to life (try not eating). The former can be - and is - keystroked into existence.
Given the finite nature of fossil energy, the finite nature of other storage-medium components (lithium etc) and the benign environmental effects of water, pumped hydro is a valid discussion-topic even if we end up rejecting it big-scale (it may well be found out that ex fossil energy, we cannot maintain our existing grids, manufacturing, maintenance). Small water-at-height schemes, will happen. Everywhere. As they have for thousands of years.
But don't allow an article like that, to drive the idea that we need to stay on fossil energy; it is leaving us; that's what finite stocks do.
Money is energy, but like you said fiat currency is very poor money as it leaks energy through inflation. Bitcoin fixs this as it is a thermodynamicly closed system.
Money is just the central measuring stick to compare the energy value of different good, and we can not price things correctly when it is manipulated and created at no cost.
I still don't get how you haven't understood Bitcoin yet.
"Money is just the central measuring stick to compare the energy value of different good"
That's why Bitcoin cannot ever be money. Nobody wants a system where the bulk of the tokens have already been given away to who knows who without any means of ever redistributing them. Tax is the foundation of civilisation, it's where as a species we all agreed to give up a bit of the fruit of our labours so that a centrally organised institution could redistribute that wealth towards building social goods like roads, hospitals, education, police and armies. Bitcoin is not backed by any institutions so why would societies buy into it.
Money is a medium of exchange, a tool and is energy neutral. The energy is the emotion attached to it, to what one is purchasing with it. There are many influencing energies and values - lust, power, status, approval, security, freedom, safety, influence, shame, recognition etc - the list goes on, but ultimately boil down to fear or love, and not of money. I'd suggest most are conditioned or manipulated one way or another and totally unconscious of their underlying energy.
Bitcoin does not fix this and in the current paradigm is just as influenced by all of the above. The technology behind it might have its beneficial uses but Bitcoin itself is created out of fear and exploits the fear and scarcity issues already in existence.
Online grocery challenger Supie goes into voluntary liquidation.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/online-grocery-challenger-supie-goe…
I am not surprised. The online grocery shopping model never made sense in a low addressable consumer market with high cost structures. Online grocery shopping is failing in S'pore - which appears a far more suitable environment for online grocery shopping than NZ - so why would it succeed in NZ?
I wouldn't touch this with a barge pole, but apparently you can't go wrong with bricks and mortar they reckon. Still won't be getting anything out of my wallet.
KiwiSaver provider and investment fund manager Simplicity is today launching a new fund to build and finance a targeted 25,000 new homes nationally worth $12 billion in the next 10 to 15 years.
Sam Stubbs, founder and managing director of the business which manages $5.1b of funds in KiwiSaver and investment portfolios, said the new venture would be called the Simplicity Homes and Income Fund.
That fund would aim to address “decades of this country under-building housing”, Stubbs said.
“We believe over time this fund will return more than average bank term deposits,” he said.
A minimum $1000 is being sought from investors from today.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new-12b-simplicity-homes-and-income…
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