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US retail sales stronger: growth in control group climbs most since April 2023. Dollar (DXY) stabilises above critical support, yet yields continue to soften. Focus will be on domestic (non-tradables) inflation, RBNZ's projection of 5.3%
17th Jul 24, 8:00am
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US retail sales stronger: growth in control group climbs most since April 2023. Dollar (DXY) stabilises above critical support, yet yields continue to soften. Focus will be on domestic (non-tradables) inflation, RBNZ's projection of 5.3%
French election impasse: euro gaps lower before recovering; who will govern? US dollar's slide halted as market awaits key event risk, headlined by June US CPI
9th Jul 24, 7:45am
French election impasse: euro gaps lower before recovering; who will govern? US dollar's slide halted as market awaits key event risk, headlined by June US CPI
US dollar continues to trade soft in wake of large ISM Services miss. ECB minutes and officials' speeches at Sintra conference preach patience
5th Jul 24, 7:46am
US dollar continues to trade soft in wake of large ISM Services miss. ECB minutes and officials' speeches at Sintra conference preach patience
French legislative election: Le Pen's RN claims first round victory. French-German yield spreads to widen; euro under pressure to start week. US equities down, yields up, crude oil down, gold flat, USD mixed
1st Jul 24, 8:26am
French legislative election: Le Pen's RN claims first round victory. French-German yield spreads to widen; euro under pressure to start week. US equities down, yields up, crude oil down, gold flat, USD mixed
S&P PMIs run hot in US, whilst in eurozone, print softer for a second month. USD ends the week on strong footing - DXY approaching critical resistance. French political risk to remain a factor in lead up to weekend's round 1 election
24th Jun 24, 8:35am
S&P PMIs run hot in US, whilst in eurozone, print softer for a second month. USD ends the week on strong footing - DXY approaching critical resistance. French political risk to remain a factor in lead up to weekend's round 1 election
Non-farm payrolls blowout! 272K new jobs (vs 185K) created, average hourly earnings hotter. US treasury yields and dollar rip higher as less than 2 x 25bps hikes priced in. A mammoth week ahead: double header, US CPI and FOMC meeting
10th Jun 24, 8:45am
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Non-farm payrolls blowout! 272K new jobs (vs 185K) created, average hourly earnings hotter. US treasury yields and dollar rip higher as less than 2 x 25bps hikes priced in. A mammoth week ahead: double header, US CPI and FOMC meeting
Risk assets beaten down through Asia and Europe sessions, pare losses in US. JOLTS Job Openings fall to 3-yr low; more evidence US jobs market is cooling. US rates extend slide on weak data
5th Jun 24, 7:43am
Risk assets beaten down through Asia and Europe sessions, pare losses in US. JOLTS Job Openings fall to 3-yr low; more evidence US jobs market is cooling. US rates extend slide on weak data
Buoyant risk sentiment fades as US PMIs add to sticky inflation concerns. US yields/dollar firm as PMIs surprise higher; Septmer Fed cut odds below 60%. Eurozone PMIs continue trend of improving survey data; brighter conditions
24th May 24, 7:58am
Buoyant risk sentiment fades as US PMIs add to sticky inflation concerns. US yields/dollar firm as PMIs surprise higher; Septmer Fed cut odds below 60%. Eurozone PMIs continue trend of improving survey data; brighter conditions
Equities up, yields up, crude up, gold up, US dollar down. It has been a huge week for commodities: oversized gains for precious and base metals. Post US CPI little has changed. Headline local upcoming event is the RBNZ decision
20th May 24, 8:57am
Equities up, yields up, crude up, gold up, US dollar down. It has been a huge week for commodities: oversized gains for precious and base metals. Post US CPI little has changed. Headline local upcoming event is the RBNZ decision
April US jobs numbers softer. US treasury yields and the dollar initially crunched; claw back some losses. Fed rate cuts expected to commence in September. Market pricing in 2 @ -25bps
6th May 24, 8:30am
April US jobs numbers softer. US treasury yields and the dollar initially crunched; claw back some losses. Fed rate cuts expected to commence in September. Market pricing in 2 @ -25bps
Market breathes a sigh of relief as monthly core US PCE prints in-line. US equities take flight on PCE data and impressive big-tech earnings. Bank of Japan delivers dovish on-hold decision, offers little forward guidance
29th Apr 24, 8:55am
Market breathes a sigh of relief as monthly core US PCE prints in-line. US equities take flight on PCE data and impressive big-tech earnings. Bank of Japan delivers dovish on-hold decision, offers little forward guidance
Megacap tech crunched, Nasdaq falls over 2%, longest losing streak since Jan 2022. Israel retaliation pushes risk assets lower. Big week of earnings ahead
22nd Apr 24, 8:10am
Megacap tech crunched, Nasdaq falls over 2%, longest losing streak since Jan 2022. Israel retaliation pushes risk assets lower. Big week of earnings ahead
A perfect storm for the dollar; DXY on track to take out 2023 high. China activity data: GDP beats, retail sales, industrial production misses.PBoC appears to be conceding defeat to USD given weak CNY fixing
17th Apr 24, 8:10am
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A perfect storm for the dollar; DXY on track to take out 2023 high. China activity data: GDP beats, retail sales, industrial production misses.PBoC appears to be conceding defeat to USD given weak CNY fixing
US CPI runs hot for a 3rd month; headline rises. Implied probability of a June Fed cut falls from 50/50 to below 20%. RBNZ hold decision passes with minimal reaction; balanced view maintained
11th Apr 24, 8:36am
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US CPI runs hot for a 3rd month; headline rises. Implied probability of a June Fed cut falls from 50/50 to below 20%. RBNZ hold decision passes with minimal reaction; balanced view maintained
Commodity linked currencies continue to outperform as prices surge, although dairy and iron ore prices fail to participate in the commodity rally. NZD only gets a modest boost
9th Apr 24, 8:36am
Commodity linked currencies continue to outperform as prices surge, although dairy and iron ore prices fail to participate in the commodity rally. NZD only gets a modest boost
US equity markets rally despite the hot data, leading risk assets higher. US 10-yr yield closes above 4.40%, logs second strongest week, year-to-date. US CPI this week's headliner; ECB, RBNZ, BoC all expected to remain on-hold
8th Apr 24, 7:53am
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US equity markets rally despite the hot data, leading risk assets higher. US 10-yr yield closes above 4.40%, logs second strongest week, year-to-date. US CPI this week's headliner; ECB, RBNZ, BoC all expected to remain on-hold
Kiwi downside pressure remains as recent data signals sluggish growth. US dollar downturn expected once Fed commences easing, but may not play out
26th Mar 24, 9:13am
Kiwi downside pressure remains as recent data signals sluggish growth. US dollar downturn expected once Fed commences easing, but may not play out
Rising US treasury yields last week's major story, DXY gaining momentum. Reserve Bank of Australia meeting: presents as a low volatility event
25th Mar 24, 8:08am
Rising US treasury yields last week's major story, DXY gaining momentum. Reserve Bank of Australia meeting: presents as a low volatility event
US PPI beat: producer prices rise most in 6 months; follows hot CPI. US treasury yields rip higher, 10-year back near 4.30%; US dollar stronger Odds of a June cut lower as sticky inflation may delay the easing cycle
15th Mar 24, 7:43am
US PPI beat: producer prices rise most in 6 months; follows hot CPI. US treasury yields rip higher, 10-year back near 4.30%; US dollar stronger Odds of a June cut lower as sticky inflation may delay the easing cycle
US equities down, yields down, crude down, gold flat, US dollar up. Markets slip into wat-and-see mode ahead of US CPI
12th Mar 24, 8:29am
US equities down, yields down, crude down, gold flat, US dollar up. Markets slip into wat-and-see mode ahead of US CPI
US employment report: NFP beats, but prior month revised notably lower. US treasury yields and the dollar fall, equity markets retreat, appear toppy
11th Mar 24, 9:29am
US employment report: NFP beats, but prior month revised notably lower. US treasury yields and the dollar fall, equity markets retreat, appear toppy
US ISM services PMI misses consensus forecasts, yields/dollar pushed lower. China's Premier Li Qiang delivers Chinese govt. work report, 5% growth targeted
6th Mar 24, 7:58am
US ISM services PMI misses consensus forecasts, yields/dollar pushed lower. China's Premier Li Qiang delivers Chinese govt. work report, 5% growth targeted
US GDP circa 2-3% range, unemployment sub-4%; cuts currently not required. But consensus view is that Fed cuts in 2H, and the USD weakens
5th Mar 24, 8:15am
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US GDP circa 2-3% range, unemployment sub-4%; cuts currently not required. But consensus view is that Fed cuts in 2H, and the USD weakens
USD softens, yields fall on ISM Manufacturing/Mich. consumer sentiment misses. Eurozone inflation declines less than expected, core remains above 3%. A rare bright spot: China's non-manufacturing PMI beats expectations
4th Mar 24, 7:32am
USD softens, yields fall on ISM Manufacturing/Mich. consumer sentiment misses. Eurozone inflation declines less than expected, core remains above 3%. A rare bright spot: China's non-manufacturing PMI beats expectations
US equity markets pause relentless ascent, remain close to record highs. Yields up, crude up, gold down, US dollar up
27th Feb 24, 8:27am
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US equity markets pause relentless ascent, remain close to record highs. Yields up, crude up, gold down, US dollar up