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Sharp falls in job ads in property-related industries see BNZ/SEEK Employment Report record 2.7% fall in overall job adverts last month, down from the record high level in May

Business / news
Sharp falls in job ads in property-related industries see BNZ/SEEK Employment Report record 2.7% fall in overall job adverts last month, down from the record high level in May
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Source: 123rf.com. Copyright: zakokor

Significant falls in job advertisements in property-related industries led to what's described as the first "non-trivial" decline in NZ-wide job ads since the Delta days of last August.

The latest BNZ/SEEK Employment Report has recorded a 2.7% drop in job ads for June, down from the record levels seen in May.

The labour market has been boiling hot, with shortages of workers and an unemployment rate of just 3.2%.

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr has pointed to the strong labour market as being a key reason why households are going to be able to cope with the much higher interest rates now being seen.

The RBNZ is widely expected to lift the Official Cash Rate by another 50 points next week to 2.5%, with most economists seeing the OCR hitting 3.5% by the end of this year.

Any signs of significant cooling in the till-now super hot work place would give the RBNZ plenty to think about.

BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert was not willing to call the May record job ads figures the 'peak' in the cycle, however.

"...It’s hard to know if this marks a peak in the cycle, let alone the start of a generalised fall. Job ads can bounce around from month to month," he said.

With a housing downturn now in full swing, property and construction industries have started recording very negative sentiment in business confidence surveys.

The May record month for job ads had not shown any particular weakness in advertising for jobs in property-related industries. But June does.

"We noted in last month’s write-up that we were keeping an eye on these aspects, conscious that the housing market is fast losing heat," Ebert said.

"For June, this was borne out by a 19% drop in ads for Real Estate & Property and a 14% fall with regard to Construction."

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14 Comments

The bank's "economists" will lose their bonuses unless they talk up the risk side of raising OCR and the subsequent dampening of borrowing from them. Opinions with this amount of bias are worthless. The OCR hikes need to dent the economy much more than this in order to firmly put a lid on inflation. A decrease in listings from a record high is not the prelude to an economic extinction event so cool your jets Craig.

The banks know this - however, if they start the chorus of doubt as early as they can, then maybe Orr's constitution will falter a little sooner and he will capitulate to the BNZ's bottom line.

 

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I'm hearing stories of real estate agents leaving the industry after only selling one house all year.  Hopefully they can learn to wait tables or make coffee or clean hotel rooms - you know, something useful.

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Maybe the a***holes will stop putting fliers in my letterbox which is clearly marked "no junk mail". Drives me nuts. Who do they think they are?!

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Take a photo of your letterbox with the flyer in the foreground, message it to them with a "nice" message attached,  indicating your displeasure. Make sure you let them know you'll have a chat to REINZ if it continues. That will normally sort them out :)

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Toxic optimism !

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The great agents will stay, they made ok money even in the GFC, some alway have to sell.......  I know people making 500k pre GFC dropped to maybe 150k worst year GFC

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By great agent do you mean whoever has his/her face plastered the most in town? or does it actually requires any particular skills?

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He probably means hard working agents with carefully cultivated databases of buyers and sellers. It can be hard to believe and there are plenty of lazy and arrogant agents out there, but yes good hard working real estate agents do exist and they do tend to do well regardless of the market.

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Posters writing hate comments and putting others down, don't realise that their comments are a reflection of themselves.

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Some are good or lucky.....     the good make their own luck

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Quality matters, more than before. As Tony Morgan aptly coined the 'kindergarten covid years' we are now back to reality & it's first job is to balance the bullshit that's being going on for the past two & a half years. It's second job is to rid ourselves of the Hobbits in Wellington. We need a new class of being. Any suggestions?

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The dearth of a useful opposition party with sensible policies is a major problem. People with an interest in the country and viable society will obviously need to look to other parties outside the major two parties.

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No surprise. 
I started saying more than a year ago that the slump in residential construction and property would start kicking in from mid 2023.

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This is the start of the purge. Half our GDP is built around property. Now that it is tanking, that sector as well as all the supporting industries are in for a torrid time. 

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