Ross Stitt says the Aussie election is being called a choice between 'dumb and dumber'. And just when conditions are ripe for an opposition to capitalise, the Liberals seem about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

Australians face a federal election on 3 May. Polling suggests the incumbent Labor government will hold on to power.

Things were very different at the beginning of the year. Back then it appeared that the government would fall as voters blamed it for a ‘housing crisis’, an ‘immigration crisis’, and, of course, a ‘cost-of-living crisis’. It looked like Labor would succumb to the incumbency curse of governing in a time of inflation, a curse that was responsible for several incumbent governments around the world losing power in 2024.

So what’s happened to bring the Labor government back from the electoral grave in just a few months? Certainly not a miraculous turnaround in the quality if its crisis management. Housing, immigration, and the cost of living are still viewed by many voters as major problems for Australia.

No, it seems that Labor’s salvation may well be a combination of two factors – poor campaigning by its primary opponents, the Liberal/Nationals Coalition, and, perhaps inevitably, the presidency of Donald Trump. 

The Coalition has spent the last three years doing what opposition parties do – opposing. Criticising government policy and holding government ministers to account. Negativity has served the Coalition well in opposition but it’s hard to win elections unless you have something positive to offer voters. And with only a week to go until the election, it appears that what’s on offer from the Coalition – both policies and politicians – is not inspiring voters.

There’s certainly no grand vision for the country just glib promises that the Coalition would do better than Labor on economic management and national security. In a time of record low trust in politicians, it’s not surprising that the electorate is cynical about such promises.

The Coalition’s biggest problem is its leader, Peter Dutton. He clearly wasn’t selected as his party’s leader for his warmth or charisma. A former policeman with conservative views on a range of issues, it’s evident from the campaign that he’s not a compelling proposition for significant sections of the electorate, particularly women and young people.

Dutton has also made some bad mistakes on the campaign trail. Early on he proposed doing away with ‘working from home’ for public servants. Any suggestion of a government move against WFH was always going to unsettle many voters. After a series of confused refinements of the policy, Dutton dropped it altogether.

Peter Dutton’s other potential liability is the US president. That liability takes two forms. First, Dutton’s identification with Trumpist politics, and secondly, the uncertain economic and geopolitical climate created by Trump’s policies.

It’s easy to forget that soon after Trump’s election victory, but before he actually took power, nationalist populism and ‘anti-wokeism’ were briefly seen as electoral winners. At the time, Peter Dutton dabbled in those waters. For example, in a Sky News interview in January, he said of political correctness that ‘there is going to be a near revolution that comes with the Trump administration’. He opined that there are ‘a lot of the woke issues that might be fashionable in universities and at the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)’ but they ‘just aren’t cutting it around kitchen tables at the moment where people can’t pay their bills’.

Unfortunately for Dutton, in just a few short months Trumpism is looking decidedly less attractive to Australian voters. Dutton’s association with it and his persona as the hard man of Australian politics may prove not to have been such a wise electoral move.          

The second problem that Trump’s presidency has created for Dutton is heightened uncertainty about both Australia’s economy and its national security.

The imposition of 10% tariffs on Australian exports to the US is not a significant problem. However, Trump has imposed much higher tariffs on many of Australia’s major export markets and is on the verge of a trade war with China, Australia’s biggest trading partner. These moves represent an indirect but very real threat to Australia’s economy.        

Trump’s tariffs on America’s worldwide allies, his criticisms of NATO, and his bizarre claims for territorial expansion – Greenland, Panama, and even Gaza – have rattled alliances that were formerly assumed to be rock solid. Australia’s relationship with the US is no exception.   

The economic and geopolitical uncertainty created by Trump is unfortunate for Peter Dutton as uncertainty tends to favour incumbent governments. Voters want stability and the current government, for all its faults, is at least a known quantity.

The worst feature of the election campaign is the naked vote buying that both major parties are engaging in. Under the guise of providing ‘cost-of-living relief’ to voters, they are promising billions in tax cuts, petrol excise cuts, student debt relief, electricity subsidies, and a raft of handouts for house purchasers. And all of it to be paid for with borrowed money as the country faces a decade of deficits and rising national debt.

Past Australian governments have usually been saved from their profligacy by serendipitous rivers of gold flowing from the mining export sector. Given the current state of the world economy, relying on that fiscal escape route looks risky.

It’s unsurprising that several commentators have referred to Labor and the Coalition as ‘dumb and dumber’.

Recent decades have seen a steady decline in the primary vote won by the two major parties. That will almost certainly continue this year as Australian politics becomes ever more fragmented. Minor parties and independent candidates are expected to do well.

‘Teal’ candidates, who are progressive on social issues and conservative on economic issues, will challenge the Coalition in many suburban and inner-city seats. The Labor Party faces a similar threat from the Greens.

Unless all the pollsters have seriously misread this election, Australians will wake up on 4 May to another Labor government. The big question is whether Labor will be able to govern in its own right or will be a minority government reliant on the support of others. 

Either way, it will be a case of the Coalition having lost the election rather than Labor having won it.

*Ross Stitt is a freelance writer with a PhD in political science. He is a New Zealander based in Sydney. His articles are part of our 'Understanding Australia' series.