Statistics NZ's estimates on monthly migration have swung back into the black after it made substantial revisions to its earlier estimates of migration flows.
Last month, Statistics NZ estimated that net migration turned negative in May, with 17,340 arriving in NZ long-term and 19,383 departing long-term, giving a net loss of 2043 people for the month.
It has now revised those figures substantially, and its latest estimate is that just 13,544 people arrived in NZ long-term in May, and just 13,181 departed long-term. That turned the previously estimated net loss of 2043 in May to a net gain of 363.
The revisions arise because it takes 16 months for Statistics NZ's migration figures to be finalised, and the monthly estimates in particular can be subject to major revisions, especially when migration patterns are going through major changes.
Which of course is precisely when timely and accurate data would be most helpful.
Statistics NZ is now estimating the net gain in June was exactly 1000 people, the highest it has been during the three months to June.
However the June figures are also likely to be subject to revision.
The annual figures are likely more reliable, but are still subject to revision.
These show the annual net gain from migration has been declining, from a June year peak of 108,839 in 2023, to 73,270 in the 12 months to June this year.
Although the figure for the year to June 2024 is still provisional and therefore subject to revision, it does suggest that although net migration gains are falling back from the record highs of last year and 2020, they are running at the third highest annual level since at least 2002, which is as far back as the figures go in their current format.
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32 Comments
363 people net in May, that'll fill about a third of the incoming Du Val fire sale
5000000 seems like yesterday. More or less was. Sigh.
Did i hear someone say 5.35million, sold for 5.35million to the lady in red
It's only a matter of time until the brain drain realizes the green grass is being trampled down, is turning brown, bush fires do the rest.
I'm guessing those that didn't find a green patch of grass will be returning when the recovery starts
Rookie is back, we missed your young thing spruiking guile......
Sorry to hear of your 50k property loss over the last 6 months. It's a tough life, that of a BlueSky spruiker.......when all NZ has had (since late 2021) is cloudy days, occasional rain and soggier and soggier bag holders.
Glad you have created a new property spuikers "ray of hope" .....AussieKiwis will flock back at some stage, to ride the pancaked NZ Housing Ponzi??? I think you need much more imagination......it's not believable.
I haven't lost anything so I don't know where you heard that? the voices in your head maybe?
NZsheep returns with the same useless DGM comments, there must be an apocalypse.
Better hurry or you'll miss your chance ;)
Ignore NZG, (s)he's just a sad, angry person projecting his/her own misery onto others.
second that
What guile - I think it is a fair opinion. to be honest guile is only coming from you comment?
The brain drain crowd aren't leaving because of the recession, they're leaving because their life prospects are being squeezed by the rentier economy. The "recovery" you hope for is more likely to them off returning.
Hold the course Adrian. If "investors", banks, landlords and middlemen are complaining it's a great sign that more of what we produce is going to those who made it, rather than the aforementioned parasites.
Stats NZ are a joke
Bring back departure and arrival cards at airports
God no, those are the reason my kids have 4 letter first names and no middle names.
i just returned from a trip and had to fill out an arrival card.
In some countries you do not trust gov stats numbers because they are trying to lie to make a narrative work, here its just old data, incompetence, legacy systems and end of life methodologies.
Perhaps its woke / diversity , do we need more STEM in STATS?
Peter Thiel believes that STEM aptitude is no longer as valuable as it once was as a marketable skill.
Many or will leave, New Zealand is no longer a good country to live in, especially for young people who are driving the exodus now. It's also a country with a very high tax rate with a lot of that money often being used on woke things or to support different groups that most appose.
I disagree about high taxation. Disproportionate focus on taxing labour, yes, but remember the days of 66% tax rate prior to 1986 and think what infrastructure was built then that still stands today.
Yes, everyone fleeing for Australia where the tax rates are higher
Customs passenger stats for all NZ airports
May 24 Arrivals 412k Departures 465k -53k net
June 24 Arrivals 430k Departures 451k -21k net
July 24 Arrivals 542k Departures 510K +32k net
Total -42 k net in 3 months
are those figures for International travel only, or for all passengers including domestic?
Sorry. should have been NZ Customs passenger stats. Only international
Yes Westie. This is the vital stat that should be published.
Because it's very accurate and can be updated daily. No wait. It's a simple daily number of how many in the gate and how many out. Collected easily.
Of course it don't tell us which are long term and who are short term. But that's only partially useful.
Unfortunately most of those arrivals/departures will be holiday makers/tourists or people making other types of relatively short trips such as business travellers or people visiting friends or family. It doesn't tell us anything about migration.
That is why the numbers would net out over months or within a month. People who haven't arrived can't leave. The excess departures in that 3 month period are either people who arrived prior or have been in the country longer term.
A one out, one in policy would suffice whilst this Austere Recession- Stagflation period plays out for the next 5 years or more.
They don't have a recovery plan!
They did. Until the 3rd world figured out that NZ didn't have a very good ROI. If only we had a fence with holes in it that people could just walk through then fly to a city and rent an Uber account to work illegally.
If your visa does not work out you are advised to go down and apply for refugee status. ( for clarity it will be a BS claim)
Then you get a benefit and a lawyer to champion your stay. Paid for by us.
Numbers for this are right up.
I don't blame the immigrants, but I am alarmed at those who enable such a looney system.
Care to share your evidence on this assertion? Not saying it isn't possible, as refugees numbers are up, but it would be credible to indicate if this is reality or assumption.
Half of asylum seekers are from India. Didnt realise India was at war or suffering a humanitarian crisis.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350366985/refugee-claims-have-exploded…
Its well known that its visa fraud
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/indonz/502127/immigration-new-zealand-vigila…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/immigration/133150636/spike-in-nz-refu…
Open borders and free trade… the latest World War is much more subtle than the last two…
So our GDP per capita is worse than previously measured
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