The National Party and its coalition partners have been losing support in polls for the past few months, as some voters question the trio’s ability to deliver on election promises.
Voters backed a change in government during the 2023 election and the three right-leaning parties were able to win an 11 percentage point lead over the left-leaning parties.
They were able to hold onto this advantage in polls throughout the summer, but public sentiment towards the Coalition has cooled as New Zealand has moved into a winter of mild discontent.
Various polls released in the past months have shown a significant shift away from National to the Labour Party, which has reduced the gap between blocs to just five percentage points.
Support for the smaller parties has been volatile but anchored around their October election results and therefore having a minimal effect on the overall balance of power.
If the polls were replicated in an election today, the Coalition would still win enough seats to govern but the trend shows opposition parties have a shot at winning in 2026.
Political commentator and former minister, Peter Dunne said the public may be questioning whether the Coalition can manage difficult political situations and govern effectively.
He said the poor handling of cancer medicine funding, smokefree legislation, and a “tin-ear” approach to public sector redundancies had been damaging the parties’ reputations.
“The Government will need to get on top of both these situations in the next few months, to restore its currently teetering credibility,” he wrote in a recent newsletter.
“Failure to do so soon will simply spill over into wider doubts about its capabilities in other areas, to the potential detriment of the attainment of its wider goals”.
Gloomy economy
Another factor in public sentiment could be worsening economic forecasts. This time last year, bond traders thought the Official Cash Rate would have been cut below 5% already. It remains at 5.50%.
Instead, the Reserve Bank has been warning the first cut might not come until the middle of next year as inflation proves more stubborn than first thought.
Higher interest rates means less spending, fewer jobs, a reduction in economic activity, and a worsening set of Crown accounts — despite the spending cuts included in Budget 2024.
Only one of the five polls was taken after the Budget was released. It also showed waning support for the National Party and a recovery for Labour.
The Coalition Government may hope its favorability numbers will improve in August when income tax cuts first appear in New Zealanders' pay cheques.
While the dollar amounts are modest, people will notice an extra $60 or $100 in their monthly salaries and welcome even a small amount of wriggle room in their household budgets.
Inflation and the cost of living has been the number one issue for voters since February 2022 and was arguably the driving force behind the change in government.
Ipsos’ Issues Monitor showed concern was still strong at 60% in May but it decreased slightly from its peak of 65% at the start of last year.
It also showed the public’s belief that National was the best party to deal with inflation and the economy had slipped between February and May, while Labour lifted a few points.
Carin Hercock, the managing director of Ipsos New Zealand, said concerns about inflation were easing in the rest of the world but were still worrying Kiwis.
“This lack of movement may be a key factor impacting New Zealanders’ assessment of the current government performance, which remains comparatively low at 4.6 [out of] 10.”
Better days ahead
Public sentiment towards the Government may also improve when annual inflation falls back into the Reserve Bank's 1% to 3% target band and as interest rates normalize before the 2026 election.
These positive stories will be balanced against an increase in unemployment, slower wage growth, and potentially even less affordable housing.
Dunne said the next six months will be defining for the Government as it turns its focus away from dismantling Labour’s legacy and gets to work on implementing its own policies.
“To do so successfully, and notwithstanding the shortcomings of other parties, it will need to lift its game substantially to retain the political initiative,” he said.
83 Comments
The coalition government is losing support. Hardly surprising as arguably they are in government only because as per Chris Trotter on here months ago, the electorate was bound to vote for the least worst. In other words they became a government not so much on their merits but the negativity the previous government has deservedly earned. Seem to me that voters in NZ have lost confidence and faith in any of the political parties and especially so as the option of a protest vote such as the Greens or TPM is even worse fare given their intemperate and unprofessional demeanour. Somehow, someway those that put themselves forward to assume office need to realise that the performances, the calibre in parliament is not delivering what either the electorate or the nation needs and deserves.Or to put it bluntly, they are not their for them but for us.
Proves that Govts (Labour) are voted out not opposition in and at this stage the coalition has not performed well even allowing for the awful situation they found themsleves in on taking office - even worse than they understood due to Grant Robber son being economical with the truth. It early days and the Coalition needs to up its gane dramatically and soon.
LOL.
Have you tried writing to politicians? They get very scared when found out.
But best do it in a professional and brief and well reasoned way. (You have to get past their minions first.)
Or you can visit them at their offices. Yes. They still have to admit you. (Be a prick, and they don't.)
They're just people. Not "tooth fairies" or gods.
And - they are accountable. Do not fear them. (If truth be told ... They fear us more.)
I’m a far right supporter. The National party keep doing a ‘Trump’ and shooting themselves in the foot. The PHARMAC debacle is a classic example. Fortunately, the alternative keep shooting themselves in the head so we’ll have the current crew for 2 and possibly 3 terms.
Wrong. Bill English said, some months after the fact, that Cullen had in fact left a very good set of books.
it was Key and English giving a heads up to their buddies to pile into South Canterbury Finance before it got frozen and Key/English gave back all the principal along with the total interest that would have been earned had the “investment” made it to full term.
then hocked off SCF assets for pennies. Cost NZ a few billion with that palaver!
then the suspension on contributions to the cullen fund - costing NZ $30bn in future fund growth
National are terrible economic managers. It’s laughable people think they are any good at it when all they know how to do is destroy, leaving it for Labour to rebuild what little is left.
Right now, National are borrowing more than Labour were. For tax cuts. Financial geniuses.
Sure they have promises that in future they will borrow less. But they also promised the average taxpayer (family) $250 (a fortnight) in tax cuts, fully funded, guaranteed. How did that work out?
So you are complaining that they are showing restraint after see the extent of the actual mess hidden by Labour, and only giving some tax cuts (to deliver partially at least on their promise), and promising to rein in spending so there is less borrowing and they can right the ship. Interesting complaint you have there.
So, what do you say to all those people in negative equity after they purchased houses believing that 2% interest rates would last forever. Are you going to tell them to stop spending and paying interest tomorrow, and you will be rich in six months ? Doesn't really work like that. It takes time.
There was no mess hidden by Labour. It was all published before the election. The only party that hid anything was Willis when she refused to share her spreadsheet.
Get over it man, the National party were voted in to get things back on track and they are making it much worse. People can see through their hypocrisy and lies and see that they are just helping their party donors. They are literally borrowing more than Labour. Not sure how anyone who criticised Labour for borrowing can stand here and defend National for doing the very thing they despised Labour for doing.
I guess if you believe they did a great job and did not make an enormous mess then that is on you. You have the same issue as Labour currently have. They have no idea what is going on and why. It seems it will take you and Labour a little while (probably 6-9 years) to get it together and get back on track.
The prime Twit ford was on TV complaining at Nationals housing performance and future, here is his record - 2335 Built out of 100,000 promised and most of thoses were in Auckland and after 6 years in office Phil if you think this is sucees I hate to think wat failure is although its now in plain site.
delboy,
Your non de plume is highly inaccurate; delboy was much smarter than you appear to be.. I remember that Key wasted millions on a flag referendum, I remember that many state houses were sold off, I remember that little or nothing was invested in infrastructure or health, I remember that he reversed the decision to have our own NZ awards, I remember that he wanted to turn NZ into a tax haven(sorry, an even better tax haven). The Panama Papers very quite revealing on that issue.
I can’t see Labour winning the next election. Unless they undo the tax cuts (highly unlikely), they will have no money to play with. I guess they could introduce a wealth tax, but without corresponding income tax cuts it won’t be popular. The coalition would need to do something pretty stupid to lose from here, although I wouldn’t rule that out.
Might be a good strategy to come in with some massive transformational changes? ... Like a complete overhaul of the tax system. Were they to pitch a tax system around giving workers more choices around how the spend, save and invest their PAYE tax cuts, (which could be substantial if the re-spread captures all income that is currently untaxed), they could be in with a chance. Getting back to rewarding work, rather than just seeing it as a taxation source, would be transformational.
Of course they will. I'm surprised to see the comments section being so low quality on this article.
There is a general level of discontent in this country which is mainly due to the economic situation, but naturally is reflected in the polls too.
Rest assured if there actually WAS an election tomorrow, coalition support would skyrocket as the real prospect of a volatile and talentless Labour/TPM government would terrify everyone.
The problem is that there is no talent in Labour, the Greens and TPM. The latter 2 parties are just disrupters, and couldn't govern - great at arranging protests and appearing on the media, but little else. The coalition is only 6 months in, and we are yet to see their policies in action. Many on this site were saying "it won't last 6 months ", and now they are saying " it won't last a year" .Now some are saying that Luxon should go for a snap election! Hilarious! Why would he do that? The coalition are not falling apart, though clearly many would like them to.
Yep. Labour are out for three terms, at least. I don't think there is doubt about that. The Coalition will push the hard stuff through this term, and they can do it, because they left are so clueless they won't be able to put forward an alternative. Labour have to pull a lot of votes back from TPM and the Greens, because either of those two are not able to be part of the government (not in the eyes of the electorate anyway). So, Labour have the hardest job, which is somehow getting rid of or severely weakening those two, and also replacing a lot of their MPs as well as much of their divisive policy. Until that is done, Labour have no show.
On the next instalment of Mission Impossible, Chippy dons a ski mask and rubber gloves and sneaks into the TPM HQ to plant some juicy evidence showing the naughty tricks they were up to at election time. TPM management and politicians wind up doing some porridge, and Labour is able to campaign more effectively winning a decent majority versus the nasty Nats.
Who says Hollywood is dead?
Seems you read wrong. The dobbing in was by Labour, during the election campaign, last year.
"During the election campaign, the Labour Party complained to the Electoral Commission about text messages urging people to vote for Te Pāti Māori. The key complaint was that the text messages did not have an authorisation statement setting out who was responsible for it, as required by electoral law" - (These are the text messages from JTs cronies).
This was the start of it. Obviously a lot more information about the corruption and cheating has come out since then, some of it being pushed by Brian Tamaki, but it started with Labour making the complaint.
Cigareti, the only doctor in N. Z to believe winding back the smoking legislation was a good idea?. I had high hopes for him, even thought he could be p.m material, but he seems to be little more than a puppet. Tama, IDK, he seems to be genuine in his conservation role, but again , having to push cuts that will work against the environment.
I'm 100% sure that Shane Reti was not happy with the winding back of the smoking legislation. My understanding is that it was certain others who pushed for this legislation. If you have ever heard him speak, I'm sure you will agree that he is intelligent, talented and principled.
Tend to agree.
Firstly, calling for a snap election when - based on polling - the government is still ahead but dropping a bit of support seems crazy. I presume the same people reckon that based on National losing a few points in polling (two years out from) there needs to be a snap election would have been calling for the same pre-Covid when Labour was losing ground to National? Do we hold a new election every time any government of any persuasion takes a few polling hits?
Secondly, I think you're probably right that the "unknown prospect" of Greens/TPM being able to wag the dog is probably going to be more off-putting to the average middle-of-the-road voter than the now-known ability of ACT and NZ First to do the same to National.
My hunch is that the next election will probably be decided on the basis of which coalition partners scare the average person most, and Greens/TPM are bound to come out with some deranged stuff in the lead up. Imagine when Chloe starts going off the rails ranting and raving about the need to eat the rich (i.e. anybody with enough cash in the bank to buy a McDonalds combo), or TPM start making it clear they want revenge and to settle scores, and that we need to abolish all prisons and so on.
NB this is not an endorsement of the likes of NZ First's toilet terrorism or the make Shane Jones' mates richer Fast Track bill.
Of course the government isn't helping itself, with braindead moves like promising to fund specific cancer drugs and then pleading poverty, or throwing the most meagre of bones to lower/middle income earners while not making any compromise on promised tax benefits for landlords. And Luxon is clearly unlikeable - can that issue be solved, probably not.
My bet is that they will gradually rise in the polls and do at least two terms. They have been attacked and survived a media who spate the dummy because their team lost.
Luxon will grow into his roll and gain confidence which will translate into support.
Labour and their association with the Hamas loving Greens and the divide NZ racist TPM will (has?) become a millstone.
No, I didn't vote for them, nor labour. Buts that's what I see happening.
I think that unfortunately for Luxon, he was so desperate to show the country he was a great negotiator and leader, that he jumped under the desks of winston and David to get a deal through at any cost to save his face
, and now they have gotten rid of the things they dont like, they cant actually agree on what they do want to do....
And a lot of people can see that..
Its like an army with 3 generals, who is actually in charge?
Adam Smith said it best that if a government needs to shore up an economy during times of crisis (covid money printing) the same government needs to ensure that the excess money supply is taxed back out of the economy again to reduce inflationary effects.
both Labour and National have utterly failed in this regard. If you want to reduce inflation, increase the tax on the ultimate recipient of money supply - businesses.
I think CGT is a bad idea (too many ways to minimise tax, and when you look at Australia and it’s numerous CGT exemptions it becomes almost meaningless)
I would rather an inheritance/death tax. Much simpler than a wealth tax etc as the total value of a persons assets would be crystallised at the persons death making for a fixed sum on which to tax.
The common “but what about the widow staying in the family house?” refrain can be easily answered by deferring the tax on the deceased’s portion of assets until the house is sold at which time the inheritance/death tax would apply on 50% of the value. Any assets the widow has at their death gets taxed at that time so if they die in the inherited house then the full value is taxed.
implementing a start point of $1m for a death tax, at 15% would be better than CGT. No shortage of ongoing revenue. It also means little Hone or Susan won’t just pick up their Daddy’s investment portfolio of 210 rental properties for free, thereby entrenching the feudal system that NZ politicians of the right clearly want to establish again
$1m too low. Not less than $2m. $1m in Akl hardly buys an average house. Its one of those thresholds that won't change for at least ten years or even longer netting the govt a lot more money in later years.
CGT exclusions are set by the govt of the day. There need not be that many to make a poor tax.
You can always identify people who know nothing about fair taxation - or even tax policy in general.
How? Because they always say the same thing. Here is a classic example:
[James Thrace] I think CGT is a bad idea (too many ways to minimise tax, and when you look at Australia and it’s numerous CGT exemptions it becomes almost meaningless)
NZ's tax policy has been "set a low rate, spread it wide". That's not wrong. We'll all be caught. But we'll all benefit from where our taxes get spent.
But we'll get taxed less in other areas. And that's a good tax.
Give workers - wage and salary slaves - choices about how they spend, save and invest.
If the left can stop the mad frantic, destructive raving about a wealth tax and start pushing for a modest CGT or land tax they may have my vote. It is frustrating that they all seem to be so wedded to a wealth tax currently, the one out of the three that is:
1) the most administratively costly, so the least return for IRD spend on enforcement,
2) the most economically destructive, as you get taxed before you get out of bed, regardless of whether your wealth is going up or down, or whether you have invested in ways that grow the economy,
3) the most likely to see capital flight.
Blanket, low rate land value tax is the way to go, encourages efficient allocation of capital in productive enterprise over land speculation, and unlike every other form of tax, is the only case where you can tax something, and not end up with less of it circulating in the economy after the fact. No brainer. Something like 0.5% p.a could generate enough to cover more 2.5x the income tax relief the Nats just provided, boosting the economy, increasing the progressivity and administrative efficiency of our tax system, and providing support to low income New Zealanders.
In hindsight the bond traders were foolish to expect 2 cuts by now. The RBNZ are only interested in the annual target band and the quarterly CPI Dec-22 - Mar 23 made that impossible.
Equally as ridiculous is to expect no cuts until mid 25 when the economy is faltering and almost every metric shows the battle with inflation is won.
Maybe Blackdog knows some people that used to be in the public service, who are now entering the dole queue. There is probably quite a few of them....and they are probably less than happy right now, but that's understandable. Soon enough they will get real jobs and their outlook will improve.
Unlikely, or if they are it's temporary. They're usually fairly intelligent and educated types. They'll be setting up websites/signing up for Fivver and Upwork/Bidding on contracting work. Some will be moving into the private sector, and getting a bit shocked at the outcome - rather than process - focus in for profit enterprise.
I think tax reform will be their undoing. Either they go after foreign companies, CGT, and churches etc to get tax revenue or the coalition will get blamed for the declining standard of living.
We need to tax those that get out of bed less of we will become less productive.
That's not the idea most on here have. I do find it amusing that so many people spend so much time dreaming up ways to get their hands on other peoples money, for no other reason other than they are so damn lazy to get out of bed and earn their own. But, I guess dreams are free.
It was never that difficult to get precursor P cold and flu pills. I used to see my doctor twice a year and got a script each time for 3 packets of precursor P cold and flu pills. Much cheaper at $5 for a packet of 50 instead of the $30+ for a packet of what, 12 pills?
Some examples:
- $3bn in tax cuts for landlords - property is tax advantaged ahead of other assets in NZ as shown by the tax working group
- No movement towards comprehensive capital gains tax + gift tax + inheritance tax and reduction in personal income tax to widen the tax base and shift it towards a more level playing field. Almost all other OECD countries have CGT.
- No increase in R&D spending when NZ's is well below the OECD average
- Borrowing for tax cuts providing a positive fiscal impulse which is inflationary in the budget
- Tax cuts which favour the well off while the poorest in society are most impacted by the cost of living crisis
- Funding SH new roading, but not funding the critical new ferry SH link across Cook Strait
- Not addressing the issues of 300,000 households in energy poverty, 480,000 foodbank customers per month and very high rent/income ratios (vs other countries)
- Doing nothing to address the unsustainable net inbound immigration which is a main factor in the housing crisis and infrastructure crisis
- Putting KO on full review and only committing to 1,500 new social houses when the number of households on the waiting list and in emergency accommodation is roughly 28,000
- ....
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