Voter support has remained fairly static since the election, with the coalition Government seemingly missing out on a honeymoon bounce in popularity.
Interest.co.nz’s polling average shows support for the parties in Parliament has been virtually unchanged since the October election, despite some noisy individual polls.
These outlier polls included a Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll showing the Act Party on 13.7% and a Talbot Mills poll putting Te Pāti Māori at almost 5%.
Both supposed swings were attributed to the news cycle surrounding Waitangi Day but were not replicated in other polls.
Support for the National Party has been at roughly 38% in the majority of recent polls, while Labour has held at around 27%. These numbers are the same as the final election result.
Act appears to have picked up a slither of extra support, now at 9.1% in our average, while New Zealand First has slipped back slightly to 5.8%.
The Green Party remains at a little over 11% and Te Pati Maori just below 4%.
The left and right coalitions have each picked up about one percentage point of support as poll respondents have seemingly switched over from unsuccessful minor parties.
While not bad news for any particular party, the coalition Government might feel disappointed that it has not received a post-election bounce in the polls.
Newly elected governments often experience a surge of public support once sworn into office. It happened for Labour in 2017 and 1999, as well as for National in 2008.
However, the Fourth National government found its support falling after winning the 1990 election in a landslide. It also faced difficult economic choices which proved unpopular.
The opportunity for a post-election bounce may have been lost by the lengthy coalition negotiations and the generally negative view of the country shared by senior ministers.
Popularity contest
Chris Hipkins has fallen in 1News Verian’s preferred prime minister poll but that metric heavily favors whoever is sitting in the role. The Labour leader led that poll until election day.
The Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll has also shown Christopher Luxon overtaking Hipkins as preferred prime minister following the election.
Luxon’s popularity numbers have also increased and he is now in positive territory with 11% net favorability, according to Taxpayers' Union-Curia.
Other coalition leaders are not so lucky. David Seymour was at -8% and Winston Peters at -22% even after a post-election bump.
The poll found a net approval rate for the coalition government was 4.5%, with roughly 35% disapproving, 40% approving and the rest ‘neutral’ or ‘unsure’.
It also asked a question about whether the country was headed in the right or wrong direction, a net 2% of respondents reportedly answered “right direction”.
These approval measures are a better indicator of re-election chances than the favorability or preferred prime minister numbers.
23 Comments
Curious that Dan doesn't mention the relentless media pressure as a potential reason for the lack of a honeymoon period. Historically honeymoon periods have been accompanied by positive press. That has not been the case for this government, in fact the polar opposite.
By relentless media pressure do you mean the media reporting what the coalition is saying and doing?
The reason for no honeymoon is because the election was one on a protest vote against the sitting govt with a slight hope the new govt would be better. That has not materialised in any of the actions or statements that the coalition has given.
The new govt has not disappointed the people who voted for it which is why the polls show they've maintained their support.
The main reason for no mainstream media honeymoon (in fact demonstrable negative bias) is many are still spitting their dummies over their inability to accept an electoral result they don't agree with & because the MSM are still receiving PIJF $ support until next year & are still liable to payback the PIJF $ if they breach the conditions of the contract.
Edit: I saw this some hours later which captures the MSMs conflicted hypocrisy concisely
https://theplatform.kiwi/opinions/media-chiefs-struggle-to-understand-d…
I voted for part of them and they've disappointed me. I can't believe how many people just instantly accept Winston as part of their government like he wasn't a big part of the problems of the last government.
The government is wasting their 100 day plan purely on revenge and backtracking on their own commitments through endlessly smacktalking the country and economy. I know this will please those that always vote for the Nats and Act and want to see blood, but for swing voters I think we'd rather see a 100 days of rolling out something useful. After watching declining competence since 2020 it's pretty distressing to see that this government is settling down to do basically nothing about anything pressing, but use the last government as a both an excuse and a benchmark for it.
Yes it would be. Angry bitter old men, often true blue National voters with a huge man crush on Luxon, need people they don't like as guests on their preferred media outlets. It helps fuel their bitterness, so they can sit around *scoffing* and grumbling about left leaning commies.
I think he was referring to the media that hounded the Pm for having the temerity to wear a $300 hi viz vest and hat yet turned a blind eye to the billions squandered by the last government..
or maybe the reporting that Luxons sister inlaw works for a tobacco company but ignoring the current crop of Labor /green members currently before the courts..or their close relatives who are currently incarcerated at his majesties pleasure..
That media..
Anti-this-National-Party-incarnation post.
And it was a legit response to why the govt hadn't seen a honeymoon period. So far all the new coalition has done is:
Refused to allow regulatory impact statement to be produced for their 100 day plan policies because they want to avoid the harmful consequences of their mass repeal to be out in the public realm.
Allowed secret lobbyists back into parliament
Repealed the spatial planning act and reverted to the old RMA which they slagged off when in opposition.
Created a fast-track consenting process that bypasses any checks and balances and allows Ministers to put forward pet projects.
Repealed anti-tobacco legislation, a world leading piece of legislation, that will cause harm to New Zealanders and has caused our country to take a reputation hit internationally.
Repeal 3 waters with no alternative plan to fix the infrastructure deficit and funding issues, which we learnt yesterday will mean rates rises and potential credit downgrades to some local council's
Repealed the Auckland fuel tax with no alternative - leaving Auckland without a funding source for the projects it was going to deliver with that revenue stream.
Claimed that they want to decentralise decision-making to local levels, except for where Simeon will decide what those local areas need.
Cancelled close to 50 regional transport projects that were planned to be funded through the Climate Emergency Relief Fund.
Canned light rail (good, although I'd like them to reconsider a surface option)
Canned the new interislander ferry and related infrastructure with no alternative plan.
Found out that they have a 24 billion budget hole in their transport commitments because they either have no idea how to work out how much stuff actually costs or because they knew and lied.
Repealed the EV subsidy and brought in road user charges for EVs to try to discourage EV uptake and support ICE vehicle sales.
Downgraded the emphasis on addressing climate change by making sure the Climate Change portfolio sits outside of cabinet.
Tell me what there is for people to get excited about and give them a honeymoon period?
I guess for the majority of the population who can't afford an EV, and have seen the cost of new and old ICE vehicles skyrocket with the resultant anti ICE regulations, they'll be happy with the increased affordability of vehicles.
The rest of the world couldn't give two shits about the tobacco thing, otherwise they'd have enacted the same policy en masse.
Likewise with many of your other points, there's winner and losers.
I feel like we're not winning much, but we're possibly losing less. We're in a bit of a bind, first world aspirations with a banana republic budget.
Yes, the 100 days list of repeals/reversals and cancellations is pretty depressing. I sure hope they get into forward gear quick smart but with nearly every Minister (including the PM) never having been a Minister before that will be a big ask. And of course the first task they've given the ministries is a cost cutting one. And the second task is to change their names/letterhead/branding to English name first. Total waste of money.
And I don't think TSY are all that keen on all the tax changes that will see revenue decrease significantly. And of all things, last week they lead with benefit bashing. How typical - sweat the small stuff mentality - at a time when they're going to "solve" the cost of living crisis we're all experiencing.
All very negative direction/sentiments so far.. Meanwhile the banks and insurance companies are announcing great profits.
On top of that, having insulted Orr, he'll be determined to push the buttons needed to force inflation down and that could lead to higher unemployment.
They seem to be an Executive with no friends in the rank and file.
Could get interesting.
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When you compare Labour and the Jacindamania movement. “We will end child poverty, we will build 100,000 homes” there was no immediate pressure on these targets. There was nothing but praise and optimism. The latest coalition has been in power less than 100 days. What a mess they’ve got to clean up.
Yep. It took Labour 6 years to promise, enact legislation to deliver said promises, not deliver any of them, except a mess in health, and then waste a whole lot of money on pet projects that mostly failed. It is great that the legislation enabling this mess can be cancelled within 100 days so that the rot will stop and money will stop being spent on this nonsense, i.e. Maori Health Authority, Ferries, Light Rail. All gone in 100 days, and then they can start the process of fixing.
i think we will need to see the budget before you get any movement on polls, so far they have done nothing but repeal, once we move to next phase that is when people will work out if these guys are any good.
waiting to see the list of toll roads and PPP's announced
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