Midnight: With 95% of the votes counted, Christopher Luxon’s National Party has clearly won the election. It will have 50 seats and could reach a razor thin majority with the Act Party’s 11.
How the last few uncounted votes come through could still force him to call on Winston Peters for support, but for now it looks like the National–Act coalition will scrape in.
The Labour Party has won 34 seats in Parliament and just 17 electorates. It has been washed out of supposedly safe seats such as Mt. Roskill, New Lynn, and Rongotai.
It's been a great night for minor parties. The Greens have made history, winning three electorates and bringing 14 members into Parliament.
Act has added a jewel to its crown by picking up Tāmaki and is bringing in one new MP.
Te Pāti Māori has won four of the seven Māori electorates and will create an overhang in Parliament. Labour defector Meka Whaitiri will fall out of Parliament altogether.
New Zealand First will be back in Parliament with eight MPs but may not get their hands on the levers of power. The jury remains out on this one, as National might want some extra votes to shore up their thin majority.
We’ll file a more substantive story to read in the morning, but thanks for following along!
11:30: Luxon finished his speeches to a chant of “back on track”. That’s a wrap on Election 2023. Now the fun begins!
11:20: Luxon claims victory, says National will be in position to lead the next government. Huge applause for “restore law and order” line.
Says he thanked Chris Hipkins for serving as Prime Minister and had a call with Act.
“There are still votes to be counted but on current numbers it looks like National and Act will be able to form government”
Thanked Winston Peters for his offer to “help where needed”.
He said: “Tonight you have given us the mandate to take New Zealand forward”.
11:00: We are waiting for Luxon’s victory speech now. With more than 85% of votes counted, National could just form a government with Act alone… but it’s close.
It’s possible the duo might need some support from New Zealand First.
10:50 National’s Mount Albert candidate Melissa Lee is trailing Labour’s Helen White by just 50 votes.
10:45 Chris Hipkins tells Labour supporters he has called National's Christopher Luxon to concede.
Here's more from Eric.
The Labour leader Chris Hipkins tells supporters the result tonight was not what anyone would have wanted. But he says it came after a difficult time and did not bring any discredit to anyone who campaigned for re-election.
He paid tribute to what Labour had achieved in terms of lifting children out of poverty, building more public housing and keeping the death rate low during the Covid-19 crisis.
Hipkins was speaking to about 300 party faithful at the party's election night headquarters, the Lower Hutt Events Centre. Hipkins was greeted with rapturous applause during his speech.
"I know you gave it your all and you deserved a better outcome than you have tonight," he said.
He had been at home watching the results on television earlier in the evening.
Labour performed poorly in the vote, but Hipkins said Labour's term was one to be proud of.
He went on to say becoming ptime minister was the honour of his life and following Jacinda Adern was always going to be a big challenge.
"We now hold an important role in opposition to hold the Governmen to account and to fight for those who will lose so much from its proposed cuts," he said.
The Labour Party was down, but not out, he said, and it would return.
10:30 National has come back a little in the vote count and Labour has risen somewhat. But the right-bloc still would be able to form a government without NZ First.
10:20: David Seymour says people have voted for change and a record number have voted for “real change”.
Says Act promises 1/5 millionth of the opportunities the county has to offer to each New Zealander.
Thanks his neighbours in Epsom for sending him to Parliament and his “neighbour’s neighbours” for sending Van Velden to Parliament.
10:10: Davidson puts the boot into Labour for spending too much time telling people what not to vote.
Gives a mihi to Te Pati Māori for their strong performance, crowd gives huge applause.
Tells supporters they will need to fight harder than ever, presumably because they will be opposing a conservative government.
James Shaw says it looks like the Greens will have six new MPs and three electorates.
He concedes that Christopher Luxon and the National Party has won the election.
Someone in the back is heckling, unclear who exactly they are booing…
10:00: The Green co-leaders are speaking. Marama Davidson gives an enthusiastic thanks to their supporters.
Says their campaign “defied history”. Congratulates Tamatha Paul who is on track to win Wellington Central, crowd gives rapturous applause.
She says Wellington Central is not a Labour stronghold anymore. Says Rongotai is another “so-called Labour stronghold” that is about to turn Green.
Says Swarbrick won Auckland Central during a red wave and will hold it through a blue wave.
9:40: Disaster for Labour, it looks likely to lose Mount Roskill with former minister Michael Wood trailing behind National’s Carlos Cheung. This has previously been considered a safe seat for the party and Wood was dropped to the bottom of the list after his scandal. He’ll need to close a 1,600 vote margin to get back into parliament.
9:35: One Green Party supporter tells me that Labour’s collapse is what happens when a party is given “unbridled power and does nothing with it”. Says they had the opportunity to pass progressive policies, but they didn’t and are now being punished for it.
9:30: Chloe Swarbrick is speaking with media about her (comfortable-ish) lead in Auckland Central. Sadly she’s swarmed by media and it’s very hard to hear what she’s saying!
And Winston Peters has started speaking in Russell, thanking his party workers. He says if NZ First can help going forward, they will. The party has done the impossible, Peters says.
9:15pm Labour's Grant Robertson says it's not the result he was hoping for but all not lost yet, Eric Frykberg reports.
The Labour Party number two arrived at party headquarters a short time ago and refused to concede defeat.
"There are still a lot of votes to be counted," he said.
"But clearly, this is not the result we were looking for."
8:40pm: Te Pati Maori is cleaning up in the electorates and is on track to win five seats in Parliament. Much better than expected results.
8:20pm: Green candidate Chloe Swarbrick has a narrow lead in Auckland Central, just 500 votes in it. Looks likely to be a nail biter.
8:15pm: National’s vote is expected to decline over the night, but it has shown no sign so far. Act looks to have won in Tāmaki with Brooke Van Velden's lead only getting wider. National leading in Te Atatu and Mt Roskill. TOP's Raf Mani way behind National in Ilam.
8pm: With 26% of the vote counted, it looks like National and Act could govern without NZ First. The two have 64 seats between them thanks to a large outperformance by National.
7:50pm: Big buzz and lots of pink at Act Party HQ. The colour transformation is fully complete and it is no longer the yellow party.
The result is a little weaker for them than some might’ve expected a month ago but it still seems like a win to those in the room.
There are big cheers as Brooke Van Velden’s numbers come up — she’s winning Tāmaki by 1,400 votes with 27% counted.
7:10pm:
8:40pmThe first batch of votes have been counted and shows National performing better than expected.
7pm: The polls have closed and the counting begins!
Earlier in the day, there was an issue with the electronic version of the electoral roll which caused delays for some voters. This has been fixed but could cause voting to run past 7pm.
The Electoral Commission said there had been “high demand” for voting today and extra staff were brought in to manage queues at the busiest booths.
New Zealanders cast 1.3 million votes ahead of Election Day, which was well down from the nearly 2 million early votes cast during the 2020 election and only up 140,000 from 2017.
This could suggest low voter turnout, or a high proportion of undecided voters, however an 1News poll taken in early October showed only 5% were yet to make up their minds.
Here’s where the final opinion polls ended up:
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We wrote a story about the final polls earlier in the week, and you can read it here.
Long story short: National is expected to win the most votes and be in a position to form a Government with Act and NZ First.
However, there is still plenty of uncertainty and possible plot-twists to follow. We wrote about those yesterday and will be updating you on them throughout the night.
The first update from advance votes will come through fast and may already have been added to this live blog.
The Electoral Commission aims to have results from 50% of polling places by 10pm tonight and 95% by 11:30pm. But we’ll already have a good idea of the outcome well before then.
Party leaders will give speeches (concession or victory or somewhere in between) at election night events later in the evening, likely from 8pm or so. We’ll have live coverage and photos.
Go put the kettle on!
The scene is quiet at the Labour Party headquarters in Lower Hutt
The scene is quiet at the spot chosen by the Labour Party to note the outcome of tonight's election count, Eric Frykberg reports.
At first, , only journalists, sound crew and Labour Party staffers can be found at the place chosen to oversee the poll, at the Lower Hutt Events Centre in Laings Road, on the edge of the CBD.
But eventually all greater Wellington MPs will be here, along with the party leader Chris Hipkins and his right hand man, Grant Robertson.
Hipkins is expected to arrive at about 9.30 pm. Until then, he will be at home with his family in Lower Hutt, monitoring the results as they come in.
A series of opinion polls have indicated a loss for Labour, though the margin varies.
But there is little sign of concern about this among Labour staffers who had gathered for the occasion.
One said she was "excited", another was "tired after working all day."
9pm up date from Eric Frykberg.
Later, about 250 Labour Party faithful remained loyal to their cause, despite trends moving against them during tonight's election count.
They filled the Lower Hutt Events Centre which was the Labour Party headquarters for election night.
"I am still hopeful for the Labour Party," said one woman, Chris Collins.
"I have always been a staunch Labour supporter and I still am," said another, Phil Waddington.
"I still believe in Chris Hipkins philosophies and the way things are going."
Across the hall, people expressed hope, despite the trends, and they also expressed support for the way their party has governed the country for the past six years.
"I am quite happy with it so far," says a fervent supporter, Callum Foothead.
And another woman said she came here to the election headquarters out of duty, no matter what the polls were saying.
"I felt I should come here, it is something I felt I just had to do," Teresa Connor said.
172 Comments
Unfortunately it’s going to take many years to repair the damage they inflicted in New Zealanders. The health, education and justice systems are all broken but most importantly our unity is broken.
They intentionally drove a wedge between our people but we will recover and may Labour never ever get into power again.
I can see clearly now
Labour striving always to achieve the lowest common denominator for equity
Labour's Failures | Spending | Division (laboursfailures.com)
A wealth tax really is a waste of time. Many of those with all the real wealth will leave, and the upper middle class will spend all their time trying to hide what they have. The cost of trying to enforce it will be outrageous. God, imagine the industry just around trying to value some of these things. Just introduce a CGT like a normal country. Some sort of LVT will also help to alter the investment preferences of the country away from property and into more productive activity.
I'm bound to be criticised here, but tonight's election results suggest to me that the Maori seats are a distortion in an MMP electoral system. We are now likely to have 123 seats (plus another one following the Port Waikato by-election) in what is supposed to be only a 120 seat parliament. Does this mean that a coalition government that does not include Te Pati Maori needs to win at least 62 seats to gain a majority?
So if Maori breed like rabbits and make up 51% of the population and force you to speak Māori, you're cool with that? Then they take away all European based land rights etc, that’s fine because it’s democratic?
What if asians make up more than 50% of England (must be close) and then destroy English culture? That is fine because it’s democracy and having English culture in England is racist?
Protip NZ is MULTI CULTURAL. There is more other European cultures than people from England. NZ had more French, Croatian, German, Polish, Scotish, Irish etc immigrants than British ones. Protip there is also more cultures and ethnicities in Asia than countries you can name (Fun fact there are many ethnicities in a single Asian country as many are multicultural also). Try learning about the diverse ethnic cultures of NZ. NZ is not the sole country for any culture as every ethnicity is an immigrant to this country. We have for generations been living and having families together so families are blended, merged and celebrate many histories. We do have extensive records and evidence of how humans arriving to NZ radically changed the country, landscape and ecology, yet the advent of humans in NZ is literally less than a blink of the eye in the history of this country.
Um you are also late to the party on the england for english bit... romans, nords, normans, french, got there first. The blend of different ethnicities that make up the country and still remain have already learnt that nationality is not ethnicity or culture, and that UK as a whole celebrates many cultures within the nation. Most of which did not begin in England... most the churches for instance were foreign designed buildings but since they have been there for over a millennia they are recognized with heritage status none the less. Sure NZ has nothing to compare to that in heritage status but we still do class sites and grassy knolls as heritage to retain a reference to more recent cultural past. Not english myself but the histories of the world even for small countries is interesting even though humanity originated and migrated from elsewhere. Sadly many students in NZ grow up ignorant of much of world history.
they will need 63 if all the maori seats go over, that is a distortion they only get 3% of the overall vote but get 5% of the seats
at least national get the extra seat for port waikato, in my mind seats should be based off the party vote and its time to do away with the electorate seats
True, under the MMP system that we have here in NZ, but is there anywhere else in the world where MMP electoral systems exist that have electorate seats reserved for one specially defined group of people rather than the total population living within that electorate?
When the Maori seats were introduced to NZ's Parliament they were designed to ensure representation of Maori in our government process (and rightly so). However, MMP and the more inclusive society that we have has made the special need for this entirely redundant. If not then why shouldn't we have special electorates for Indians or Chinese or farmers or women or transexuals or whatever?
Perhaps 'overhang seats' should have representation in parliament but not voting rights. If so, then in the current situation Te Pati Maori would have just their party vote percentage of 2.5% of the 120 seats as voting rights and representation in the House for the rest.
I still think it is a distortion of the "one person, one vote" concept of democracy.
Or perhaps every voter should have the choice of having either two party votes or, a party vote and an electorate vote.
Now I am being intentionally silly but in effect we do have a system whereby one section of the NZ electorate is able to provide one political party parliamentary representation via special electorate seats but it gives their party vote to another party. Yet, the intention under our MMP system is for the party vote to be the ultimate determinant for the overall distribution of seats for the various parties in parliament.
How much of the blood is needed to count and if someone is more Chinese then their Maori side does that mean you would rather they leave the country altogether away from their birthplace & that of their home even though ALL their ancestors were relatively recent immigrants to NZ, not just the 6 gen back Chinese ones.
You racism is not only harmful it is critically hate speech which has literally caused more violence against vulnerable people and children in NZ
Yeah, I'm a TOPer. For me it's really a vote for a bit of intellectual anarchy. I have almost no stake in the system we have limping on, but it will of course. Anyway, lets see what the FED does to our mortgage rates. The Beehive is in charge of the fiddly bits around the edges.
I wonder what the vote would have been if the game had been scheduled the day before elections... previously local sports failures have had significant effects on things like alcohol consumption, violence rates, crime, work attendance and political voting... It is rather liberating to not be so tied to what is a trivial competitive sport mindset. Competition is good, but unless you are playing the sport yourself picking a winning side really should have little effects on community wellbeing. It can be entertaining to watch, but to focus a life so heavily on a sports teams results (outside of gambling mindsets) seems overall futile. There is more resilience in other jobs and life events that actually require more grit & self determination to hold people in those spheres as better role models. Especially than say our current crop of players who get automatic celebrity but show really bad examples of who we could be (many being actively involved in violence, crime and drinking culture to make it more normalized in society).
Labour's failures on the other hand...Labour's Failures | Spending | Division (laboursfailures.com)
Game theory in voting pays off every time. Although regardless of the results it is always a loss for NZ and there is no guarantee on real party priorities and the back room deals for what policy actually gets through in the next term.
We may have much like the last election significant Act leadership of many govt departments (like the Greens did this government even though Labour had clear majority), we may even have NZ first leading a department again... The deals after an election can be far more important than any election result.
Although more pseudoephedrine instead of placebo sugar pills that do nothing would be welcome relief... oddly that is one Act idea I do hope gets through. It would be best practice option in the medical profession for many patients to not have to jump through a $60 hoop just to breathe normally. I doubt though this floated idea will come to pass next term, hope but doubt. Of all the Act policies if they only got this one through the door I would not be so worried next term.
House prices up, tax cuts for landlords, low income and those receiving benefits thrown under the bus.
Inequality will become further entrenched, so crime will go up. Lucky we will be spending millions on new prisons.
Time to abandon ship - anybody under 35 will be unable to ever buy a house except for those who come from money.
God save New Zealand.
The Helen Clark years were the result of the unintended consequences of allowing study to residency visas that Shipley brought in late 1998.
The rise of those visa applications had a direct correlation with the rise in house prices from 2001 - 2008 when chinese and indian families realised they could buy a house for cheap in NZ for their child to live in while “studying” for their residency visa (at one of the many ESTL schools). Once said visa was obtained, entire families were then “reunited”. NZs complete lack of control around house values and taxes on sale made it very attractive to buy houses here.
The covid boom was an anomaly, potentially driven by FOMO.
Fair play, I mean it’s not like Helen Clark was in a position to do anything about what the previous gov had done. oh wait…
Covid was an anomaly but the decision to include “maximum sustainable employment” to the RBNZ remit wasn’t. What effect did you think that had on interest rates?
Not necessarily giving Helen Clark a free pass, but it's difficult to have the benefit of hindsight when a problem first rears its ugly head.
Both Key and Ardern had the benefit of hindsight re house prices, even campaigning on fixing the issue, but both failing (Ardern spectacularly).
Kudos to Labour for urging landlords to revisit their rents on an annual basis. Many landlords have been too lazy too kind for too long.
I empathize with Hipkins, he inherited a sh*t role and is in the wrong political party. Wishing him quality time with family.
Wonderful election result.
That National are expected to win. Tricky position for Luxon. I would say if the come out of the special votes still in the lead they will then wait until that by-election and then approach NZF in a strong position to give them a take it or leave it to them or possibly just brush them off totally.
Our debt will explode under Willis? Are you psychic?
If you want an example of socialist extravagance, look no further than failed boondoggles like the dopey gun buyback, Pike River, the Harbour Bridge Cycleway, 3 Waters, the Light Rail cock-up, the abandoned Income Insurance Scheme and 15,000 more civil servants.
Sounds like you were really suffering. Nact will address your grievances within a year - UH-Hmmmm :)
Seriously now, can you guarantee debt won't explode under Willis? If they couldn't make ends meet with their election promises, there's little hope now they're in power. Rest assured; they will be the architects of more grievances throughout next year!
Its comical....
That fits the description of a typical and naive Property Speculator rather well - perhaps yourself? They spend other people's money then whine about those in power when it goes wrong. Although I don't think Socialist has its place here.
That aside, I can hear you popping corks from here - although, a note of caution, expecting solutions from this crowd will surely lead to its own string of disappointments over time. Don't expect too much from Willis.
- 19 AUGUST 2014 - Prime Minister John Key has today announced $100 million in new funding will be made available over the next four years to accelerate cycleways in urban centres.
- Jun 25 2015 - Government to spend $330m on 41 new cycleways across the country
I'm old enough to remember when the government owned almost everything. The service was terrible and they'd be rude to you because they knew they could get away with it.
Bike lanes are a pointless exercise in a city like Auckland, we need new roads, subdivisions and expansion, not high-rise blocks of Soviet flats. I'm hoping Luxon will get this country going again, because it's been a f depressing 6 years watching this great country descend into the economic abyss.
Much of the blame can be pinned squarely on Comrade Ardern and her red fed mates.
I'm serious. Been on the Northwest Motorway lately? If I have to navigate it I do it between the hours of 10am and 3pm, because otherwise it's very frustrating. There's even queues as far out as Kumeu.
I went to the airport a few weeks ago at 5.30am and there was a traffic jam approaching the airport. I couldn't believe the traffic heading to Auck on the NW Motorway at 0530. People want solutions, not wretched bike lanes.
It's no coincidence the voters of West Auckland have turned their backs on Chippo and Comrade Ardern.
Yes , quite regularly . We have contracts out west . Bigger snarl ups where 20 meets the southern motorway.Because they often close the southern for work at night , not much gained by waiting later , though we avoid the peaks.
The only thing that will fix it is decent public transport . 90 % of the cars have one person in them . We normally have a trailer on , and often remark we are the only one with a trailer from west auckland to Bombay.
No one wants wretched public transport, it would take all day to go to the supermarket. The buses come past my place and they're empty. We want roads and motorways.
And if they're smart they'd open up Whenuapai Airfield to airlines, it would cut down on a huge amount of cross-Auckland motoring, but in neanderthal NZ, that's not likely to happen.
The buses where I live are empty. People want the convenience of their own transport, they don't want to spend all day doing the grocery shopping. Labour are obsessed with public transport and cycleways...why do you think they've been thrashed in their traditional Auck strongholds?
I've got a modicum of sympathy for Chippo, he's been on the receiving end of years of pent-up anger at socialist interference in people's lives. Auckland's coming to a grinding halt and he's paid the price. If people want the convenience of public transport then they need to live close to the centre of the city or bus lanes.
Luxon used to be my boss, and I'm sure he's got what it takes to get the show on the road again.
It's relief to see the country turn its back on failed policies like death and capital gains taxes.
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