The polls agree the most likely outcome on Saturday night is that National will be in a position to form a government with the help of both Act and New Zealand First.
However, there are a lot of moving parts in MMP elections and there are a number of possible plot-twists and sub-plots that will be worth watching on election night.
We'll be live-blogging from 7pm on Saturday, but here are some hypothetical highlights to watch out for...
An upset in Ilam
Plenty of ink has been spilled about TOP leader Raf Manji’s bid to win the Ilam electorate and carry a couple of MP’s into Parliament on his coattails.
Most pundits think it is very unlikely that he will win and a Taxpayers’ Union—Curia poll seemingly confirmed it. But, it remains possible and would be a major shock.
That said, it would be unlikely to swing the outcome of the election significantly. Both blocs would likely still need the support of New Zealand First to form a majority Government.
But if National and Act did better than expected, and TOP got two or three candidates into Parliament, they could plausibly keep NZ First out of Government.
This is why Manji recently pitched National to endorse him, a request which was roundly rejected. An upset in Ilam remains a distant possibility, but you shouldn’t hold your breath.
Te Pāti Māori under/over performs
Labour’s would-be coalition partner, Te Pāti Māori, has been slipping in the party vote polls. It was over 4% in July but has dropped towards 2.5% today.
This isn’t a major concern as the party has been running an electorate campaign, which hinges on co-leader Rawiri Waititi winning his Waiariki seat.
Co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Labour defector Meka Whaitiri would then be carried into Parliament on his coattails. But they are also in the running for other electorates.
Whaitiri is trying to win back Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and Ngarewa-Packer has been campaigning hard in Te Tai Hauāuru, but polls show both are slightly behind their Labour rivals.
Meanwhile, 21-year-old Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke is giving Labour Nanaia Mahuta a run for her money in Hauraki-Waikato.
Were these three Māori electorates to swing away from Labour, it could create an overhang in Parliament and bolster the left’s chances of forming a government slightly.
On the other hand, there is a reasonable chance that Whaitiri could fall out of Parliament altogether if she loses in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and Maipi-Clarke wins in Hauraki-Waikato.
Labour loses critical candidates
Barring some minor miracle, Labour is likely headed for a term in opposition. But the extent of its loss will affect how much of a challenge it will present to the incoming government.
In the current polling, the party is expected to only bring in a handful of MPs on its list. The top five are Grant Robertson, Jan Tinetti, Ayesha Verrall, Willie Jackson, and Willow-Jean Prime.
Those members should be safe but the next three list-only MPs, Adrian Rurawhe, Andrew Little, and David Parker, might be tossed out of Parliament.
Below this line, candidates will need to win their electorates to make it home. This includes rising-stars such as Kieran McAnulty, who will face a tough battle in Wairarapa.
Ginny Anderson, who was tapped to be police minister, will have to beat Chris Bishop in Hutt South if she wants to stay in Parliament.
Priyanca Radhakrishnan might win Maungakiekie, while Jo Luxton might lose in Rangitata.
It will be an intense game of musical chairs, with only ~34 seats available for the current crop of ~63 MPs to sit in.
Watch on election night for who makes it home, those people will be the key players in opposition and future leadership candidates.
Green Party picks up more electorates
Last election, Chlöe Swarbrick made history by becoming the second-ever Green MP to win an electorate. This time she could be the first to be re-elected for a second term.
But with the party on track for a record share of the party vote, could it also sweep up some more electorates? It has mounted serious campaigns in three other suburbs.
Julie Anne Genter is running in Rongotai, Tamatha Paul in Wellington Central, and Ricardo Menéndez March has taken on Mount Albert.
These are left-leaning seats and Labour has fielded first time candidates in all three.
With many progressive voters turned off by Labour’s centrist campaign, the Greens have sensed an opportunity to snatch up some electorates.
Swarbrick and Paul are favourites to win, Genter’s race is considered a toss up, but Menéndez March is a long-shot in a Labour stronghold.
ACT captures Tāmaki
Election 2023 is looking to be a real coming-of-age for the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system.
The Act Party, which once needed National to let it win Epsom, is looking to expand into the neighbouring electorate of Tāmaki.
It’s currently held by conservative National MP Simon O’Connor who has often fallen out of step with the more socially progressive wing of the party.
Act deputy leader, Brooke Van Velden, believes she can unseat him by opposing housing densification and drawing attention to his old-fashioned social views.
Van Velden recently shared a very public cup of tea with prominent National Party fundraiser, Paula Bennett. Which suggests even some in O’Connor’s own party might prefer him to lose.
The odds are that National will hold on, but Act has a good chance at expanding its territory.
NZ First fails to clear the threshold
This one is very unlikely. New Zealand First has not polled below the threshold in the past month and has been averaging above 5% for the past three months.
But polls can be wrong and voters can have a sudden change of heart on Election Day.
That would be a dream scenario for National and Act, who would immediately be able to form a majority Government together — almost regardless of who picked up those NZ First votes.
One theory that has been floated is that supporters originating from the anti-mandate movement might not be reliable voters and could fail to show up to the polls.
There isn’t any evidence of that, but members of the Act Party in particular will be watching hopefully as the election results roll in.
Hipkins and Peters double betrayal
Labour and NZ First have both unequivocally ruled out going into coalition together. NZ First have staked their campaign on it, and Chris Hipkins said he’d sooner have a second election.
But… it might be mathematically possible for Winston Peters to betray his voters, plus convince Hipkins to betray his, and form a left-leaning Government.
It would be an electoral scandal of historic proportions, but having the numbers to pull it off may be enough to give NZ First a little extra leverage in negotiations with National.
If Peters holds the balance of power, watch to see if he deploys any strategic ambiguity at all.
Hung parliament and fierce by-election
It is plausible, although not probable, that nobody will be able to form a government after the votes are counted. Imagine NZ First fell short of 5% and Labour picked up some of their vote.
This could result in 60 seats for both blocs and no path to a majority for either.
The election would then be decided by the Port Waikato by-election scheduled to be held on November 25, with Labour staying in power as caretaker government until then.
Port Waikato is usually a safe National seat, but you could expect Labour to mount a fierce campaign if the outcome of the entire election depended on it.
Like many of the above scenarios, this is unlikely to occur but would be a thrilling plot twist for news media and residents of the Port Waikato electorate.
90 Comments
Where is the Roy Morgan Poll? Despite being at times a bit rogue, it was more accurate than any other for the last election.
It has now been published. The right National/ACT will have about a 2 or 3 seat advantage over the left Labour/Greens/TPM. NZF would be the decider obviously but within that TPM are predicted to rise to 4 mps. If WP/NZF honour their commitment to the electorate, and also Labour, then it will be a National led coalition government. Down the track that particular commitment, by either NZF and/or Labour might well change of couse and that prospect hardly promotes a stable government in the making.
Nope. The offender is thus messaged to figure out where he or she has been offensive. Bit like someone here recalled as a child he was put in his room until he told his parents what he had done wrong. Of course that way they found out too,about a lot of things they didn’t know about.
Here's a scenario: a five point swing to the left from the last polls (same as last election).
Winston negotiates with the right but asks for too much.
NZFirst provides supply and confidence to the left only. Or the right. But only after 6 painful weeks.
Subsequent govt of either colour collapses in 18 months and we go back to the polls.
More likely is if Winnie asks for to much Luxon will tell him to get on his bike and would rather have another election. At which point Winnie will try and do an about face and try to do a deal with Labour at which point we get the government that we didn't vote for.
He's got nothing to lose, and probably doesn't care too much about being in Govt. Nats might need to give away half a dozen minister positions, incl. Deputy, MoF, other big ones, even a spell at PM. Result would really really annoy the caucus and put a metaphorical target on Luxon. Also need to do something with ACT.
18 months likely optimistic. The odds on a pthree way coalition settling in the first instance are long and even if so, the media is going to be going a hunting for any sniff of dissent in the ranks that they can blow up into a headline. I reckon 12 months at the best.
It's going to be close. Talked to a few people who voted today. General consensus was that all of the Parties have been disappointing. Spoke to two small business owners, one voted Labour and the other National. Neither were particularly excited about their choices. This has to go down as the worst campaign in history. No exciting vision for the future, nothing for young people or those with any ambition beyond flogging houses to each other.
I feel the opposite. Followed all the debates this year when I wouldn't normally have bothered. When Luxon is actually allowed to speak he is the guy with the plan for the road ahead. I'm not really sure what people are expecting otherwise. Luxon doesn't need to continually try and attack Labour because he has ideas of what to do and a plan already. Honestly cannot believe how bad Hipkins is, you can tell career politicians have never run a business and they sure as hell shouldn't be allowed to try and run the country.
Yeah, I found that answer interesting - CCOs will have the budget/money for 3 waters infrastructure, hence central government doesn't need to budget for that (massive) problem.
Instead, it can get on with building more roads :-).
I suspect most NZers won't know what a CCO is but think it must be some kind of capitalist, nirvana-inspired knight in white satin.
Perhaps. But why would we want a bald headed Ardern? The whole reason he's being criticized is that he's supposed to be the better choice, he even holds that level of arrogance but is demonstrating he's just as bad if not worse given his so called "real world experience".
There's incompetence and then there's Dunning Kruger. If you think Labour did a shit job due to their incompetence, imagine someone cocky that overestimates their abilities while being just as incompetent?
Sure. But we're not talking about the Greens, we're talking about your precious Luxon's ability to waffle a lot and questionable competence.
Was the CEO of a company but demonstrated his business acumen the other day when he jumped behind the till at a market stall. Tried giving someone $16 change from $20 on a $6 donut.
And if we're not a bottom-feeder - we're wet and whiny. He's adopted a sort of Trumpian attitude toward the country he wants to run. I predict it will all be our fault for having voted Labour in in the past two elections. Cue Judith (again) - most experienced parliamentarian in their caucus.
Only wish I lived in Ilam and could vote for Raf Manji, he is a good guy with a solid background and would make an excellent local MP. I read the TOP manifesto and did the calculations and rather suspect it would benefit a lot of people financially - more so than either of the big parties policies........TOP is centrist and could have brought some fresh ideas to this campaign but they got very little media coverage. A wasted opportunity I suspect.
Party vote TOP. If people vote for the parties whose policies they agree with, MMP might actually work in the way it was intended.
If TOP beat TPM on the number of votes but miss out due to a lack of coat tailing it might give more weight to lowering the 5% threshold.
Forget tactics and "wasted votes", vote for what you believe in.
There's no chance a land tax would be implemented even if TOP got in, with only 3% of the vote.
They lost my vote when Raf said he favoured a coalition with National. I can just imagine the conversation - reinstate interest deductibility, yep we agree; remove Brightline, ditto; implement land tax, no way.
He's also for mass migration and wants to remove median salary requirements.
They have said that they will re introduce interest deductibility but will require much larger deposits for buy to rent to reduce speculation. They also have said they would lower the salary threshold for immigrants but will tighten up the vetting of applications. What I like about them is that they are evidence based rather than ideologically driven, balancing the need for economic prosperity with environmental and social responsibility. I doubt anyone agrees with the full manifesto of any party, but people should take the Vote Compass test and vote for who fits them closest, rather than on a tribal basis based on who their family and friends vote for.
Raf said he favoured a coalition with National
I've been in Ilam holding hoardings at street corners with Raf all week and the results will be shown tomorrow. This came up from the Lab\GRN TOP supporters and just isn't true. People are listening to what the media are saying instead of what Raf has actually stated. He is unequivocal in being happy to work with the 'left' or 'right'.
Raf is pragmatic, it looks like a Nat/ACT led government, National would have more leverage if they had a choice of TOP or NZF to get a majority. No deal has been done with either side.
There won't be any surprises. The turkeys running this country are going to be thrashed. This country's in a very bad way, and unless there's a big change in direction the future for NZ is very grim indeed.
I've worked for Chris Luxon, and he was a great boss. And there's probably not many people would say that about their boss.
Kiwis are moving to Australia, for good reason, both my kids are there, and I've told them not to come back.
No mining, no oil drilling, billions for maoris, a plunging NZD, a massive deficit, lots of bike lanes which no one uses, but no new roads, traffic jams, potholed highways, extortionate taxes on petrol and some vehicles which people need for their work, the tourism industry in ruins, an airline industry on life support, mortgage interest rates impoverishing households, 3 waters, the global warming mania, the economy slowing...etc.etc.
hopefully won't come across this road works will be confused whether to taihou or haera, can you hear the redneck farmers now coming across this, i showed to the redneck in our office and boy he was not happy,
First road traffic signs in Te Reo Māori – Taihoa, Haere - NZ Herald
Why is he a redneck, because he doesn’t believe in woke virtue signalling using a language <3% of the population speak?
A language that Maori themselves let wither and die, and thankfully was saved by a few remaining native speakers assisted by enormous cohort of white do gooders who recognised the loss it would represent
Look at the history of the Irish, Welsh and Māori languages. They didn’t let their languages wither and die, they were punished for using them. Culture is interwoven with language, if you lose your language you lose your identity. Read some history and try to see things from a different perspective.
The sooner the whole world speaks the same language the better for humanity
Labour as demonstrated by the defiant attempt to entrench Three Waters are being held to ransom by its Maori caucus. That direction of influence is already abundant in the Greens, who abetted the attempt, and obviously 100% in TPM. Put all that together, in concert with the concessions and compromises that a coalition would need to accommodate, then the likelihood of a government pursuing greater racial selectivity becomes quite apparent.
@ wingman...I have worked for Christopher as well...like you say..."not many people would say that about their boss" and most who worked at AirNZ under his tenure did NOT think he was a 'great boss',aside from a few 'corporate crawlers' who's bank balance was enhanced by his incorporation of US style bonus schemes that enriched a few.
I can categorically say he was the most hated CEO at Air NZ in many years.
There were many instances of his 'bottom feeder' type approach coming through in his dealings with employee groups.
He makes me laugh when he says he is a man of the people and likes to talk to people. We were told in no uncertain terms he was "Christopher", do not address him as "Chris'...now he wants to be PM ,he is MR relaxed...call me "Chris"
Rob Fyfe & Greg Foran are both known for rolling their sleeves up and working alongside staff to see what goes on ,hear their concerns direct,be approachable to the teams...Rob was well known for his monthly 'on job' days...he'd throw on a pair of overalls,get in and clean an aircraft ,toilet and all,grease an aircraft,operate a sector as cabin crew and Greg Foran is similar,he pops up all over the place,at all hours.
Luxon would hold a meeting and it would be stage managed,lights,sound,lecturn...he'd stroll in all "Presidential" like,smile,shake a few hands as he strode up the front to deliver his message...it was like a Sunday service at the local "happy clapper" fundamentalist christian fellowship church..
If he prefers to be called Christopher, so what? It's his name and his prerogative.
Air NZ was profitable when he ran it, I was at a retirement meeting and he just turned up, made a very nice speech and shook the hands of those leaving the company. He doesn't suffer fools gladly, and making derogatory comments about what religion he is, is moronic to say the least.
Yeah, some of the overpaid staff at that time might have felt he was being unfair, cabin crew amongst them, some of them, including allowances were on $120k a year. He's a businessman, not a showman like Chippy.
The most despised Air NZ managers were those when Brierley's took over.
Amazing how folk always think it's the others that are getting too much pay.He certainly didn't try and lift the wages on staff earning minimum wage as Foran has.
ANZ was profitable because he got to reap all the hard work Norris & Fyfe did to transform the company.He breezed in just as the super fuel efficient 787's arrived (ordered by Fyfe,but delivered 4 yrs late by Boeing) it was also a time of low fuel prices and a monopoly on the AKL-Lax route.He also axed the flagship LAX-London route...
My point is he insisted on being called Christopher,now he 'doesn't care'..he is not being honest,he hides his true self to suit.
Just as he stopped going to The Upper Room Church a number of years before getting into politics...he does nothing by chance,he would have assessed the negatives associated with being an anti-abortion fundamentalist christian and decided to hide yet another side of him.
He has probably had a plan to be PM for years,more about his ego than any desire to serve.
Like any corporate,he would have had his 10 year plan.
I’d argue the biggest upset will be is if NZ First decides to go into govt with Labour with confidence & supply from the Greens.
NZ first will sink 3 waters & give the antivaxers a bone to chew on but nothing else.
Greens will go along with it to keep National & Act out. The lesser of 2 evils in their eyes.
The anti-mandators might be deserving of something to chew on:
Nurse who shared Covid-19 vaccine misinformation will be allowed to practice again (msn.com)
Claims that Labour were pretty average so NACT plus Winston must be better fails the sniff test. On every interview and debate, Luxon comes across as evasive, arrogant, and pushing his half baked policies which don’t add up. His integrity, drive and vision reminds one of a used car salesman. Let’s see what kind of banger he rolls out after this ominous election.
Um, there's no rule that the deputy PM or deputy leader has to be finance minister.
Right now neither the deputy PM nor deputy leader of Labour are finance minister.
While in opposition, John Key rose to 6th on the National party list and held the finance portfolio.
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