This is a re-post of the July Roy Morgan poll. The original is here. The original includes Notes.
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for July 2023 shows a potential right-leaning National/ Act NZ coalition has a clear lead on 47.5%, up 2.5% points since June, and now well ahead of the governing Labour/Greens coalition on 35%, down 5% points.
Support for National has increased for the first time this year in July, up 3.5% points to 33.5%, while support for potential coalition partners Act NZ was down 1% point to 14%.
The rise in support for National means the two parties are set to capture a slim majority of seats in the Parliament if this level of support is repeated at this year’s election set for October.
There wasn’t good news for the governing Labour-Greens alliance with support dipping for both parties in July. Support for the Labour Party was down 4.5% points to 26% - the lowest level of support for Labour so far this year, while support for their governing partners the Greens dropped by 0.5% points to 9% – the lowest support for the party for a year since August 2022.
Maori Party and New Zealand First both set to win seats in next Parliament
The results for July show further increases in support for minor parties outside the ‘big four’, up 2.5% points to 17.5% in total.
Support for the Maori Party is down slightly by 1% point to 6% while support for New Zealand First has increased by 2% points to 5% - it’s highest level of support since January. At these levels of support both the Maori Party and New Zealand First are set to win seats in the next Parliament.
A further 6.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, up 1.5% points from a month ago, including 4% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party, 1% (unchanged) who support Democracy NZ and 1.5% (down 0.5% points) who support other parties.
National/Act NZ set for a slim majority with 61 seats
If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would score 61 seats, well ahead of the 45 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition.
The projected results show a further 14 seats split between the Maori Party (8 seats) and New Zealand First (6 seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 955 electors during July. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5%, up 1% point, did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating plunges to a record low of 68.5 in July
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged by 15.5pts to a record low of only 68.5 in July. A record high majority of 60.5% (up 6.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to under a third, only 29% (down 9% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 1.8pts to 83.7 and is clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 75.2 on July 17-23, 2023.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
|
|
Total | Women | Men | ||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | ||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Labour | 26 | 29.5 | 22.5 | 36.5 | 21.5 | 19.5 | 23 |
| Greens | 9 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 4.5 |
| Labour/ Greens | 35 | 40.5 | 37.5 | 43.5 | 28.5 | 29.5 | 27.5 |
| National | 33.5 | 32 | 26.5 | 37.5 | 35.5 | 31 | 39.5 |
| Act NZ | 14 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 21 | 22 | 20 |
| National/ Act NZ | 47.5 | 40.5 | 33 | 48 | 56.5 | 53 | 59.5 |
| Maori Party | 6 | 8 | 14 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 3.5 |
| NZ First | 5 | 4.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 5.5 |
| Others | 6.5 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 6 | 8.5 | 4 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | |||||||
| Right Direction | 29 | 30.5 | 30 | 31.5 | 27.5 | 26 | 29 |
| Wrong Direction | 60.5 | 57.5 | 56 | 59 | 64 | 65 | 63 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 68.5 | 73 | 74 | 72.5 | 63.5 | 61 | 66 |
| Can’t say | 10.5 | 12 | 14 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 9 | 8 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Men favour National/Act NZ while women are evenly split between left and right
On an overall basis men are heavily in favour of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 56.5% almost double Labour/Greens on 28.5%. This high support among men is the basis of the clear lead National/ Act NZ have overall. In contrast, support among women is evenly split between the governing Labour/Greens coalition on 40.5% and the potential National/Act NZ coalition, also on 40.5%.
A large majority of 59.5% of older men aged 50+ support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government compared to under a third, 27.5%, who support the governing Labour/ Greens coalition.
There is a slightly closer result for younger men aged 18-49 with a majority of 53% supporting a potential National/Act NZ coalition government compared to 29.5% who support the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition.
Women aged 50+ favour a potential National/ Act NZ coalition on 48%, now just ahead of the current governing Labour/Greens coalition on 43.5%. However, younger women aged 18-49 are the only major demographic group which favours the governing Labour/Greens on 37.5%, just ahead of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 33%. Nearly a third of younger women, 29.5%, support other parties not including any of the ‘big four’.
Support for Act NZ is clearly defined by gender and is far higher amongst men at 21% more than double their support amongst women at only 8.5%.
Support for the Greens is higher amongst younger women (15%) and men (10%) than amongst their older counterparts. Only 7% of women aged 50+ and 4.5% of men aged 50+ support the Greens.
The Maori Party attracts the support of 8% of women including 14% support from women aged 18-49 and 2.5% support from women aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 3.5% of men including 4% of men aged 18-49 and 3.5% of men aged 50+.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for younger men at only 61 in July
Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating plunged by 15.5pts to 68.5 in July.
Among women overall now a majority of 57.5% (up 2% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 30.5% (down 7.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 73 (down 9.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was down 0.5pts to 74 while it plunged 19pts to 72.5 for women aged 50+.
A rising majority of men, 64% (up 11% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only 27.5% (down 10.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of a record low 63.5 (down 21.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 was down 34pts to 61 while for older men aged 50+ it was down 6pts to only 66.
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-23
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 937.
New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 937.
Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 937.
84 Comments
There seems to be good support for TOP amongst Interest readers. But I don't hear many of my less politically engaged friends and family talking about them. I hope there are some larger financial backers out there that see a benefit in evidence led centrist party. We really need them in Parliament to shake things up a bit.
Thirded.
Most of TOP's real world fanbase seems to lurk the comment section here, whereas in the 'real world' I don't think they've done enough to shake past associations with the Cat-Hater In Chief, and anecdotally most of my friends and family know them as the party that wants to charge you a whole load to live in your own house (yes I've done the calculator, before anyone asks - I'd be better off personally ... but truth is irrelevant in politics only perception matters)
I feel TOP missed a trick in not pushing first and foremost against speculators and property investors. I think TOP could easily reach mid-high single digits if it really went to war on greedy investors, whether that is by making their land tax higher % but only on your second property plus, or a robust capital gains tax on everything but the family home (I appreciate there is a policy to disallow the use of equity, but really it's the headline tax policy that most people seem to pay attention to).
I really don't think it helps that many of TOP's more enthusiastic supporters often come across - at least online - as highfalutin "you wouldn't get it" types, or even worse the smug "I'd be worse off personally BUT" types.
Smash speculators and leveraged investors as your value proposition to get into parliament, prove your worth and then work towards deeper reform.
I feel TOP missed a trick in not pushing first and foremost against speculators and property investors. I think TOP could easily reach mid-high single digits if it really went to war on greedy investors, whether that is by making their land tax higher
Not dumb thoughts at all. I'd have doubled down on the above too. When it comes to buying existing houses, you're providing for your retirement by taking away from someone else's and not a lot more.
I'd have kept TOP 1.0 security of tenure measures (what initially drew me to the party) or thrown something very simple and tangible to renters such as if a landlord asks you to leave (no cause termination or if family moving in) then they have to pay 2k upfront for moving expenses with the notice.
Yes I agree. However
I had a look at the Maori party policies and actually there is more there that I agree with. They are the only ones who have said that we have to stop immigration until all our existing people have adequate affordable housing. That alone is almost enough to get my vote. As a European I never thought that I would say that. Further they have far stronger policies at chasing down the real people who are sucking the life out of our economy. One major omission is policy to cut the guts out of the monopolies.
All but a very small minority will be significantly better off with these M.P. policies and only a very very small minority will be significantly worse off. My gut feel is that a far wider section of the population will be better off under the Maori party plans compared to TOP. It is not even that bad for the productive sectors of the economy.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/494586/te-pati-maori-proposes-suit…
Yes, unfortunately TOP has dropped Gareth's original 'thanks, but no thanks' immigration policy. I'm unsure why as it makes sense to go with the other measures to make housing more affordable (suppress demand). If TOP came out with a population referendum, I think they'd make 5% quite easily.
Cheap credit and immigration only have a large effect when land use policies restrict supply from being able to keep up with demand.
The most affordable housing jurisdictions in the world have more immigration and credit availability than we do. What they do have that we don't is far less restrictive land use policies.
Yes, it's still surprising to me how many people here are determined to vote Nat/Lab despite having a list longer than their arms of reasons why they don't like either.
TOP does seem like a sensible protest vote even if you aren't a fan of their main policy of shifting some taxation from PAYE and onto land to encourage productivity.
It's because in reality a vote for anything other than National/Labour or their coalition parties is a wasted vote. Yes there is the odd smaller party that pops up promising drastic change but this is so easy to do when you have absolutely no influence or ability to action. The truth is the devil is in the detail and minor improvements in the core issues of Health, Education, Housing and Business will get NZ back on the right path. As much as Labour have been well intentioned they categorically have not made NZ a better place. While nowhere near perfect, a level headed National led government is our best bet this election in seeing the improvement that we desperately need.
Clearly many see it that way. I'm voting TOP because I think we need major changes (not minor tweaks) and see voting for the status quo as a vote for a wasted future.
Specifically, I like TOP's taxations reform policy. Only then will young people have a fair go at growing up in NZ, buying their own house and having a family if they wish i.e. give them hope for a future in NZ irrespective of how wealthy their parents are.
Luxons political career thus far gives you that faith in him ? National are as uninspiring as Labour. There's no vision, there is an endless plethora of sound bites and bits of policy that have been gauged to resonate with sectors of society that give the biggest vote bang for 30 words or less.
The reality is whoever wins they are getting the economic poison chalice. 3 years and they'll be gone = 0 achieve.
Out of any of the standing representatives Luxon's career is by far the most impressive. Best of an average bunch perhaps, but the best none the least. We don't need another polished superstar figurehead, we need a no nonsense party that focuses on the big issues which is what National is aiming to achieve.
Dreaming of a utopia where a new party is voted in and everything changes over night is not realistic.
Career in what, business ? How does that translate to anything meaningful. I have no doubt he is a driven individual. From a leader of a country perspective, he is beige. It doesnt bother me, but he is also white, wealthy and perceived as priveleged, and the god bothering doesnt help his cause much either.
Nothing will change overnight, Im not that naive, but reversing taxes and building roads is hardly earth shattering drive the country forward stuff.
Sometimes we confuse the party in power which is supposed to do its job properly and the opposition which may do the job properly if elected. The latter is a probability - the former is reality. The current government has had ages and unlimited expert advice from tax payer funded consultants. For some weird reason we seem to be going rapidly backwards rather than some semblance of progress. If being gaslighted into believing that i) There is no law and order crisis (specifically life threatening incidents) ii) there is no health care crisis iii) there is no education crisis iv) no infrastructure crisis and v) no economic crisis - then it may be that the supporters are used to a toxic environment. Also the argument that the other guys did it worse is not valid as you are not testing the current party and the opposition with the same set of variables. I rest my case...
I cannot see any pro- labour support in this forum. Not much pro- National either, mostly because Chris Luxom lacks charisma, and people think that there is nothing radical in National's policies. Actually the contributors to this forum seem to be cheerleading for TOP. My view - taxing the family home is a crazy policy.
4% for TOP is a surprise. It will be interesting to see if it continues in the polls. Perhaps Labour needs that cup of tea in Ilam. Mind you, no reason to suppose Raf Manji would support Labour rather than a National ... unless Labour has a change of heart and declares support for TOP's goal of taxing residential land in exchange for lower income taxes.
That's one advantage TOP have over the Greens or ACT or TPM - they can plausibly go either way if they get seats.
Personally I think their policy priorities would be easier for Labour to swallow than National. Their centrepiece tax policies would be very disturbing for the landlord party...
I'm tempted to vote TOP. Have only voted National once, and ACT ever since as a protest vote because National is filled with incompetent buffoons. Problem with ACT is some of their policies are far too radical, but I took solace in the fact it'd be a while before they got big enough to get those over the line.
I like the idea of an LVT and their lower tax free threshold.
Can you give an example Nzdan? Because I've listened quite a lot to what David Seymour has to say and it's all right on point and delivered articulately. That guy has intelligence and good-will in abundance. Act's policies on their website seem completely reasonable to me. It's Labour who've implemented radical, crazy stuff (without a mandate). Curtailing free speech, buying the news media, dividing society along racial/medical lines. Locking the country down for years on end. The list goes on and on. We need an antidote to the craziness.
Policies, not the people. I've voted ACT because their whole line up has real world experience/relevance to their portfolios they speak for.
Maybe radical was the wrong word choice. I don't agree with the Education "rebate" system, where people can choose which school their portion of state funding goes towards. Abolishing the Human Rights Commission. Removal of the 90 day employment trials. Interest on student loans. I think they're a bit too far right for my comfort zone, I'm more center right.
Not sure why Labour always needs to be brought into a conversation about other parties. I don't vote Labour, never will vote Labour, so they're irrelevant.
Maybe TOP will make 5%, it could be a bit of a circuit-breaker. There's a weird core contingent of people who simply think keeping National out of power is more important than whether the government can actually do anything, and the people living in emergency accommodation or dying after leaving emergency rooms are just collateral damage.
I maintain the TOP tax policy sounds a lot better than it would work out in practice (especially given the Auckland/Rest of NZ issues with land values) but they do have some stuff around the fringes that could make for useful confidence and supply wins.
Either way, they are firming up as an option and definitely one I prefer over seeing NZ First in power again.
Favourite quote of the week by Julie Anne Genter - "Los Angeles have built highways and more lanes and it doesn't ease congestion".
Lol, good comparison Julie - please have no say in the next Government. If it was up to them they'd be building cycle ways on the golden triangle and expect Trucks to fly to their destination.
Keep Labour, Greens, Maori coalition of chaos away please!
If you get those people using half a ton of metal to drag their own bodies to work or the shops onto bikes instead, that leaves much more room for the trucks. We have plenty of road if we stop using them for dumb reasons.
More efficient, good for our pockets, good for our health, good for reducing the space wasted on car parking, good for the balance of payments.
We also need to come up with better ways to get kids to school that does not involve parents driving them over short distances in their SUVs and utes.
Solve child obesity and alleviate school dropoff/pickup hour traffic by forcing your kids to walk or bike to school.
Never going to happen in this day and age. The little darlings may get wet or worse still get snatched by some imaginary psycho. Walking is probably the only safe option now however, we used to ride a bike but seriously with all those SUV's on the road its now suicide, gave up on that years ago I "Ride" in my garage.
It happens all the time in my neck of the woods. Lots of tandem and transport bikes taking their kids to the primary school I bike past, and you just about get swept away in the tide of kids biking home if you go past Cashmere High at the wrong time.
The reason? There is cycling infrastructure so people feel safe to do so.
MFD you obviously haven't driven SH1 that often suggest you do and do it on a Wed thru night. As approx six hundred line haulers drive from Wellington to Auckland those nights then when you are stuck behind 5 to 6 of then going thru the 3 sisters they are 25k corners on the desert road or bullie point which is a 15k corner beside lake Taupo were regualy trucks smash their side mirrors against on coming trucks you will realise for a so called first world country that SH1 is a joke. Most first world countries their main arterial roads are at least two lanes each way if not more. The interstate in the US can land planes on or take Tanks on. Our SH1 would be classed as a scenic drive in most countries yet Wake what their name says let's slow the traffic down to save people. Yeah right
This pollster usually publishes the most maverick results, but it is becoming difficult to attach much credence to any of them anyway. One suspects each one, each time avails, the same old suspects. Long ago, facing an election result unexpectedly unflattering, Jim Bolger uttered one of his shortest and most meaningful comments as in “bugger the polls.” That to me seemed to put them in a place where they have remained.
Young people really need to get their head in the game, especially women. The ones that vote Labour/Greens are the same ones that end up going "NZ is so crap, I'm going to go to Australia for better wages, lower cost of living, better housing, and more fun". If only they realised that they just need to create those conditions in NZ rather than the current "everyone dependent on welfare, living in Govt housing, funded by a tiny handful of rich people" policies. We almost had it under John Key and the "Rockstar Economy" until 2017 happened.
A government based on what policies?
How I see this is that the public is pissed off with current government and their abysmal record for last few years and have no choice but to select the only other major party but then that party also does not have any policies to make NZ great again. They are all pro boomer ones to make life miserable for the young kiwis.
One sent us to the gutter, the next one will shit on top.
Seriously God save NZ
Difference is FPTP allows the government to actually implement ideas, and at the same time makes them accountable because they can’t hide behind their coalition partners. MMP undermines both implementation and accountability. NZ really needs an effective government right now.
We don't want to go back to first past the post.
I think a transferable vote system should be added to the MMP system. At the moment if you vote for a far left party, and they dont make the threshold, around 50% of your vote is transferred to the right , for example.
I wonder what state assets they will sell to pay for this. Very quiet on that score aren't they.
The rest of Kiwibank
The rest of the power companies
The rest of Air NZ
The roads
The hospitals and sections of the health sector
.........??????
They have lots of form. It is one of their standard ploys.
I don't think they are planning on costing their promises. They're hoping to coast in from here on the governments unpopularity, and who is going to listen to an unpopular govt telling them the promises are not affordable.
It think the sad state of affairs is that people just want to ignore all the issues. Climate change ?, lets just ignore that for a few more years.
just promise us we can carry on , as we are for a bit longer.
Luxon told where the money was coming from last night. China. Makes sense.
I had forgotten that the Key government were pretty much in the pocket of the Chinese. It looks like Luxon will be going down the same track and sell us into Chinese debt and dependence for rubbish failing projects like other Pacific island governing puppets have. You have to wonder about kickbacks. I note that Key sold his Parnell Mansion to some Chinese entity for an enormous figure.
TOP is a wasted vote. I've voted labour 8 out of 10 prior elections. But not this time. Remember folks labour is running a 6.5 billion deficit, they are ripping us off by not indexing the tax system for inflation and then we get ripped off again when we go get groceries.
National has alot to be desired too. It's time we actually become a high tech high value economy instead of an economy based on unproductive housing investment and low value unrefined primary production.
We can't keep spending more than we earn.
None of the political parties have this vision and we will get poor results intertwined with a reduction in superannuation entitlements over time. You will all be working to 70 come the 2026 election
It's not all a bed of roses over the ditch. The UK is struggling. Large parts of the USA are wastelands. Rural Japan is forgotten. Big changes in China & not for the better. The last chapter is closed. The next chapter does not look very nice. France is looking good but again only in places. Germany has hit the wall. Russia is still at war with the west which is [sigh] such a waste. Canada is run by lunatics & freezes over half the time. Spain & Italy cook for half the year while most of the rest of the world is some form of conflict or another. Might have to be Austria.
Stadium was ahlf empty in Auckland for one of the best teams in the world.
And I'm guessing you missed this
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/494768/mayor-sings-palmerston-north…
Our company just lost the last of it's under 30s to UK. Small engineering/planning firm but none-the-less. Four in the last 6 months.
Bumped into a former colleague from a different org and they have taken voluntary redundancy, will be heading to UK and then Ozzie. Young transport engineer. Decided he wanted to work in sustainable transport. Seeing National's plan yesterday cemented his decision.
So if this happens, which senior national MP's will be left out of cabinet?
Nicola Willis to give up finance to Seymour?
Mark Mitchell to give up Police?
Defence
Foreign Affairs?
Health?
Education?
It makes you wonder what ACT will request for its 'loyalty'
It will be interesting to see how the weakest ever National led govt will operate. I only way weakest ever because in their history they have never had to rely on a coalition partner so signficantly to hold power.
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