Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine is, most observers agree, an assault on democracy, sovereignty, and human rights. For the United States and its NATO allies, the Kremlin’s aggression demands a powerful response, including unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia and huge amounts of military aid to Ukraine. But the West will stop short of any direct intervention, lest it be viewed as a declaration of war against Russia.
The contours of America’s policy toward Taiwan remain far less clear. And that is precisely the point: by refusing to say whether it would defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion, the US has helped to deter China – which does not want to risk a war with the world’s leading military superpower – without making any promises it might not want to keep. The question is whether this policy of “strategic ambiguity” can offer Taiwan the kind of protection that Ukraine clearly lacked.
According to former Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzō, the answer is no. In April, he argued that while strategic ambiguity worked in the past, its success always depended on two factors: the US being strong enough to maintain the policy, and China being “far inferior” to the US in military power. Neither condition applies today. In Abe’s view, the policy has thus become “untenable,” and an unequivocal US commitment to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression is now urgently needed.
In light of America’s failure to deter Russia from attacking Ukraine, Abe’s call for greater clarity is understandable. And the following month, US President Joe Biden seemed very nearly to heed it: on a visit to Japan, Biden declared outright that the US would defend Taiwan militarily if needed. But the White House was quick to walk back Biden’s statement, asserting that America’s policy toward Taiwan has not changed.
To be sure, that does not mean that Biden’s statement was untrue. Perhaps the US really does plan to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. The fact that Biden himself prefaced his statement by noting that US policy had not changed could suggest that defending Taiwan might have been the plan all along. But, even if that is the case, it is clear that US policymakers do not want to say it outright.
Chinese forces may well have to land on the island before the world finds out where the US stands. But how likely is a Chinese invasion? In attempting to answer this question, it is worth comparing the dynamic between Russia and Ukraine with that between China and Taiwan.
Perhaps the most obvious difference is that whereas Ukraine is universally recognized as an independent country, Taiwan is officially considered to be a part of China. Though this would make little difference from a humanitarian perspective in the event of an invasion, it would change how any conflict is regarded under international law.
Taiwan is also both smaller and wealthier than Ukraine. While Ukraine’s population is less than one-third of Russia’s, Taiwan’s is just 2% of mainland China’s. But, despite Ukraine’s considerable agricultural resources, its GDP per capita is only about one-third that of Russia, whereas Taiwan’s is nearly 2.5 times that of China.
Taiwan owes much of its prosperity to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company – a world leader in its field and a poster child for industrial policy. In fact, TSMC’s stock-market capitalization is not much smaller than the island’s GDP. Thanks largely to this powerful growth engine, the Japan Center for Economic Research predicts that Taiwan’s per capita GDP will exceed Japan’s in 2028.
Despite the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping share a similar disregard for life and other humanitarian issues, there are significant differences between the two geopolitical situations. In Ukraine, the aggressor is not only larger, but also significantly wealthier. That would not be the case in Taiwan. And even if China did manage to subjugate the island through military force, it could well end up killing the goose that lays the golden eggs. At a time when China is under severe economic pressure and growth is slowing sharply, this is the last thing it needs. My only worry is that Xi’s ambition to build a geopolitical hegemon would make him blind to economic – as well as human – sacrifices.
China and Taiwan might thus have a shared interest in avoiding conflict. And on that foundation, a compromise may be built – with or without an explicit US commitment to defend Taiwan militarily. In fact, shared interests may well be the most potent deterrent of all.
Koichi Hamada, Professor Emeritus of Economics at Yale, was a special adviser to Japan’s prime minister. This content is © Project Syndicate, 2022, and is here with permission.
30 Comments
Fair enough to question why The CCP might invade Taiwan but the larger question remains, how they would do it. As the US Marines encountered in WW2 seaboard landings are both extremely difficult and perilous. The Taiwan Strait itself is treacherous, and seasonally would offer only about 15 weeks opportunity at best. Islands occupied by Taiwan on the approaches are heavily fortified. That and satellite surveillance means no surprise attack. Beachheads are not numerous and such that there are have had over 70 years to install & upgrade defences, and that might still include piped oil to ignite the sea. Going airborne raises equal difficulties, air transporters are sitting ducks. Taiwan’s population is densely urbanised. Casualties will be beyond description and Taiwan has sufficient missiles to inflict similar retaliation. Not an easy nut to crack militarily anyway you look at it. Blockade might do it though.
On top of this, the Chinese military has the ability to have an amphibious assault of a maximum of 50,000 troops per wave. They'd need to land hundreds of thousands of troops to get the job done, all the while their amphibious resources would get depleted with every wave.
The lack of capacity is surmountable, but increasing that capacity in great amounts would be fairly visible.
So for the time being, it's sabre rattling.
Not quite. The Chinese combined their warring factions to combat the Japanese invasion in the 1930s. Chinese armies fought courageously alongside American forces, General Stilwell and British, General Alexander, & commonwealth troops on a fighting retreat right through then Burma to the Indian border. In fact they tragically lost an entire army in attempting to navigate impassable terrain. Chinese troops fought hard and effectively in support of Nth Korea once MacArthur had breached the demarcation line. Good book to read is “Retreat With Stilwell” by Jack Belden. Published in 1943 so facts as they stood then, not massaged by time.
in the next 50 yrs, east asia will have a reduced but homogeneous population. north America will have a population dominated by mexican and African american. the eu will have its white population replaced by north africans, people from east europe, and people from middle east.
lots of diaspora of white population from eu and the us will migrate to the aus and nz.
that is the future.
So now we can add racist to the list of your homophobic misogynist elitist bugbears that you have espoused on this forum.
You are doing an absolute terrible job of selling your world view xing. I still have hope for you though, at the very least you are articulate.
Articulate:
having or showing the ability to speak fluently and coherently.
pronounce (something) clearly and distinctly.
To be clear xing articulately responds in a way that unequivocally shows that he/she hasn’t the faintest idea, apart from their myopic state dictated agenda, of what they’re really on about.
... I'm cutting Mr X some slack on this ... clearly English isn't his first language ... but , so what ... we get the gist of his message , and that is the point ...
The fact that his posts are predominately pro the myopic PRC dictatorship just gives us endless hours of laughing at his batshit crazy ideas ...
... keep them coming X , you're a legend !
Potentially there is an element of truth to that, about the only places to live that are more favourable than NZ are fairly culturally homogenous. Nordic Europe, Singapore, Japan, when you don't have to try and please a whole bunch of different perspectives, resources are saved.
Well, considering the country as a community (5M is a small city in world terms), 100% of us live in a multicultural NZ society & I spent my 45year working life in a mix of European/Asian/Maori/Pacifica/other/50% female communities.
Then, my late wife of nearly 30 years was Chinese ethnicity originally from Malaysia.
What was your point again?
Taiwan is not Ukraine.
For a start it's an island, bristling with anti-ship and anti-air missiles. Even if the Chinese military made it there a lot of the country is mountainous and near impassable by vehicle, terraine that benefits defenders. Finally this is a war Taiwan has been preparing for over decades.
Could China take Taiwan? Sure, but it'd be a monumental bloodbath.
Well China could claim extension of territorial waters surrounding Taiwan. Precedent for which the USA vs Cuba 1962. That would leave the USA & allies two options. Enter said waters with battle fleet, having first though positioned ample numbers subs in the location at the ready, and see what happens. Resort to Berlin air lift strategy that thwarted Joe Stalin and see what happens.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.