Is The Lucky Country's 2022 election an unpopularity contest to be won by the least unelectable?

In his 1964 book The Lucky Country, journalist Donald Horne described Australia as “a lucky country run mainly by second-rate people”.

Sixty years later little has changed if election polling over the last week is to be believed. It indicates that Australians have a disturbingly low opinion of the two men vying to be their prime minister after the election on 21 May.

In the latest Newspoll conducted for The Australian newspaper, current Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his Labor challenger Anthony Albanese both recorded net satisfaction ratings of negative 12%.

The most recent Ipsos poll undertaken for The Australian Financial Review paints a similar picture. Morrison and Albanese tied in the overall competency stakes with an abysmal rating of just 42%. That’s the lowest rating in 27 years for both a prime minister and an opposition leader.

In a particularly sad comment on the state of Australian politics, the Ipsos poll indicates that only 30% of voters regard Scott Morrison as “trustworthy”. Perhaps it’s not surprising his nickname is “Scotty from marketing”.

41% trust Albanese – better but hardly a ringing endorsement. And his marginal lead on trust is undermined by his poor showing in the important area of economic management. Just 31% of Ipsos respondents think that Albanese has “a firm grasp on economic policy”.

What a choice for voters – a man who can’t be trusted versus a man who can’t manage the economy.      

At this stage it looks more likely that the winner will be Albanese. His Labor Party has a clear lead over the governing Liberal/Nationals Coalition in the polls.

According to Newspoll, Labor is ahead by 53% to 47% on a “two party preferred basis”. (This incorporates the preferential voting system that applies in the House of Representatives.) The equivalent Ipsos poll shows Labor with a lead over the Coalition of 55% to 45%.

Even with all the riders that inevitably apply to election polling, these numbers point to a loss for the Morrison government. And both polls were conducted before the latest higher-than-expected inflation figure of 5.1% was released. 

However, Labor is taking nothing for granted. They were favourites to win the previous election back in 2019 and failed. Having lost one ‘unlosable’ election, they are understandably anxious not to lose another.

The key to Labor’s victory may be retaining its apparent advantage with women voters. That advantage may be more a result of negative attitudes toward the Coalition than anything positive Labor has done. From concerns about sexual harassment in parliament to claims about the challenges facing female politicians within the Liberal Party, a perception has arisen in some quarters that Scott Morrison has a “women problem”.

One of the greatest uncertainties in the upcoming election is the impact of the minor parties and independents. They have the potential to disrupt the “two party” reality of Australian federal politics under which either Labor or the Liberal/Nationals Coalition usually wins the right to form government on its own. 

The last time this cosy duopoly was disturbed was at the 2010 election when neither major party won a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives. Labor eventually formed a minority government with the support of several independent MPs.

If next month’s election proves closer than the polls currently suggest, and enough independents and minor parties gain seats, 2022 could see another hung parliament. Two factors that could contribute to such a result are the mining magnate and billionaire Clive Palmer and the lobby group Climate 200.

Clive Palmer is spending a remarkable $70 million on election campaigning, more than either Labor or the Coalition. His United Australia Party is currently polling at just 4% but his constant criticism of both the major parties could influence the outcome in individual electorates and in the Senate. The latter is a separate upper house in parliament with a proportional voting system. Depending how the numbers fall, the Senate can act as a block on government legislation.        

Climate 200 is another group with deep pockets. Its goal is “decisive, science-based climate action”. It is seeking to spend $15-20 million to promote “high quality, values-aligned” independent candidates in the election. Many of those candidates are competing against Coalition incumbents in wealthy inner-city electorates where the climate change issue resonates with many voters.

It is difficult to predict precisely what role climate change will play in the voting decisions of Australians at this election. However, the ABC’s Vote Compass survey reveals that it is a major issue. According to that survey, climate change is “the most important issue” for 29% of correspondents. That compares to 26% for the combination of the cost of living and the economy.

Health and education, the two issues on which Labor is traditionally favoured by Australians, are seen as the most important issue by only 8% and 4% respectively.

Defence and foreign affairs, two issues on which the Coalition is often perceived to be stronger, come in at just 4% and 1% respectively. This is a little surprising given the current ubiquity in the media of both the war in Ukraine and China’s security pact with the Solomon Islands.

Intriguingly, and perhaps reassuringly, Covid-19 is rated by only 1% of the ABC survey respondents as the most important election issue.

How times have changed! In the space of just a few months, pandemic management has gone from dominating Australian politics to an historical footnote.

Whatever issues determine the result of next month’s election, the polls tell us that the voting public is underwhelmed by the quality of the two candidates on offer for prime minister.

The writer Richard Cooke labelled the 2013 federal election “an unpopularity contest won by the least unelectable”. The 2022 election is shaping up as something very similar.  

Ross Stitt is a freelance writer and tax lawyer with a PhD in political science. He is a New Zealander based in Sydney. His articles are part of our 'Understanding Australia' series.