By Chris Trotter*
It is doubtful whether Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Government understands just how completely it has lost control of the political narrative. Most likely, it is operating on the assumption that because most New Zealanders, like most MPs, are appalled at the behaviour of those occupying Parliament Grounds, all is well.
It is a false assumption. Like the first victim of the “Freedom Convoy” weapon, Justin Trudeau, the Ardern Government’s refusal to “go hard and go early” against the protesters has created the worst of all political narratives: that it has become weak and ineffectual.
Not only has the occupation of Parliament Grounds made this government look weak, but it has also emboldened and, in the eyes of some, at least, ennobled the occupiers. Swift and decisive action to evict the occupiers was crucial, if only to forestall the creation of a David versus Goliath narrative in which every successful defiance of the forces of law and order only served to make their movement stronger.
Those who share the occupiers frustration with the Government’s management of the Covid-19 pandemic, but who have, hitherto, not believed that successful resistance to its policies is possible, have been given cause to think again. They may represent fewer than one-in-ten New Zealanders, but one-in-ten of 5 million is 500,000. If only a tenth of that half-million citizens decided to join the Wellington protest camp, then this Government will very quickly find itself confronting a national security crisis of immense proportions.
It is a genuine mystery why neither the Government, nor the senior Police commanders, were able to grasp the nature of the challenge they were facing. It was clear to every thinking New Zealander that the protest action represented by the “Freedom Convoy” was of a new and potentially extremely dangerous kind. One didn’t have to be a master strategist to understand that once 200-300 motor vehicles converged on the centre of the capital city, the owners of those motor vehicles would, more or less immediately, control the centre of the capital city. New Zealanders knew that they had nothing to fear from protesters who gathered for a couple of hours to deliver their message and then dispersed. But, protesters who came to stay until their demands were met – they were a very different kettle of fish.
New Zealand’s senior police commanders cannot say that they weren’t warned. The Ottawa example was there before them. By failing to break the Canadian truckers’ blockade immediately, the Canadian authorities allowed the protest’s relatively limited set of demands to escalate wildly. Fatally, Prime Minister Trudeau opted to talk tough, but then refused to act tough. The latest poll out of Canada shows only 16% of Canadians are satisfied with his handling of the crisis. Trudeau’s failure to deal with the truckers’ protest swiftly and effectively may spell the end of his political career.
While the Policing Act 2008 makes it clear that in operational matters Ministers of the Crown are required to butt right out, there are other ways for the State to assert its duty to protect the rights of the citizenry and the rule of law. It would be interesting to know whether the Officials Committee for Domestic and External Security Coordination – commonly referred to as ODESC – was convened to address the national security implications of the Freedom Convoy. Chaired by the CEO of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, ODESC can bring together all the instruments of the state apparatus – including the Police and the NZDF – required to coordinate an effective response.
From the perspective of the ordinary person in the street, however, neither the Prime Minister nor the Police Commissioner, Andrew Coster, appeared to be taking the matter very seriously. Indeed, by constantly invoking people’s right to protest, they gave the impression that they were reluctant to do anything more than politely request the protesters to behave themselves and then “move on”. Only the Deputy Prime Minister, Grant Robertson, who, as a former student leader, was familiar with the unwritten rules of the demonstration game, appeared to grasp the qualitative difference between the Freedom Convoy and the protests he had helped to organise.
And then the Speaker of the House, Trevor Mallard, stuck his oar in.
The care and protection of the Parliamentary Precinct is, indisputably, the Speaker’s responsibility. The dignity of the office, and the need to at all times conduct himself professionally, should, however, have persuaded Mallard to limit his involvement to simply declaring the occupiers to be trespassers. The strategy and tactics required for their eviction should then have been left entirely to the Police.
To describe the extraordinary decision of the Speaker’s Office to, first, order the parliamentary ground’s lawn-sprinklers turned on, and then, the following night, to blast loud music across the grounds (presumably in an effort to either dislodge or disturb the occupiers in their tents) as “unfortunate” would be a gross understatement. Indeed, it is difficult to conceive of actions more likely to convince the occupiers that they are not dealing with serious people. Mallard’s actions may have hardened the occupiers’ determination to resist. Worse, by responding so childishly, he risks convincing them they can win.
For the long-suffering citizens of Wellington, and the rest of New Zealand looking on, the manifestly inadequate policing tactics employed to move the occupiers from Parliament Grounds, coupled with the Speaker’s ludicrous interventions, have combined to produce a political narrative of weakness, incompetence and pettiness that will be very hard to dispel. The spectacle of unhelmeted constables in their summer shirts, wearing flimsy surgical masks, being sent to stand eyeball-to-eyeball with shrieking, unvaccinated occupiers, was extremely hard to watch. So, too, was the sight of those same constables wading into the flailing, spitting crowd to effect arrests. Where was the Police Association, their union, when these egregious failures of health & safety were unfolding?
More to the point, where were the force multipliers essential to any operation in which hundreds of police officers are pitted against thousands of aggressively resisting protesters? How many games would have gone ahead during the Springbok Tour of 1981 if the then Police Commissioner, Bob Walton, had confronted HART’s protesters with unhelmeted constables in their shirtsleeves? The late Tom Newnham didn’t call his photographic history of the Tour “By Batons and Barbed Wire” for nothing!
The sheer carelessness with which Ardern and her colleagues have relinquished their winning political narrative is astonishing. Already weakened by its handling of Delta and Omicron, this Government’s botched response to the Freedom Convoy has changed their story dramatically. Labour no longer seems willing – as it was throughout 2020 – to go in hard and early for the Team of Five Million. In fact, it seems unwilling to go in hard at all. Small wonder, then, that the enemies of reason and science are feeling vindicated and emboldened. Or that the Team of Five Million is feeling a lot let down – and not a little fearful of what happens next.
164 Comments
Ever since Bernard Hickey published his unhinged tirade last week, I've noticed "national security" start creeping into the narrative around anyone opposed to New Zealand's COVID-19 response. This is concerning. History has taught us well that "national security" gets used to justify all sorts of things for which there is no other reasonable justification, and relieves the people invoking it of the need for having to explain themselves.
Think what you like about the protesters, but I genuinely hope we don't go down this path.
Reasonable people who are against vaccine mandates, look at what's going on and can see that the current politicians and the majority of the news media despise them. They want to ignore you, or ridicule you, or associate you with nazis and terrorists. They'll take any pretext to have you removed from political discourse and ideally from society all together.
They clearly have no intention of engaging with the anti-mandate groundswell, and it's obvious to anyone that highly disruptive protests are the only avenue left for change.
100% right, no point wasting a crisis!
Rules get changed during times of crisis - think allowing spying on NZer's or increased border controls or being labelled a terrorist essentially eradicates all of your human rights...
Or discriminating part of the population based on their refusal to forgo their human rights that are written into law... hence here we are with protests!
At it's core these protests are about our bill of rights being trampled on... which has still not been recognised or addressed
Laws are written in for a reason, and the bill of rights should not be taken away so easily or simply dismissed
think allowing spying on NZer's
To think, a big chunk of that happened in the past because they got caught spying on someone who enabled others to download copyrighted songs and movies.
Interesting that in Canada the laws that could have been used to remove the convoy were put in place by the conservative state government previously to enable them to remove Native Canadian protesters. And now we're seeing the same sorts of anti-protest laws being enshrined in Florida (De Santis) and elsewhere, with Jan 6 as the excuse.
Here, though, I do think Trotter's suggestion the protesters should have been dealt with more harshly falls a bit flat. Surely we support freedom to assemble and protest.
If they're parking in non-parking zones or disrupting traffic with illegal parking then tow those vehicles away as a parking matter. Right to assemble and protest is unrelated to right to park in a non-parking zone.
No sympathy for Ardern/the government from me.
As the Pro Mandate team like to constantly remind us - "choices have consequences".
Yes, choices do have consequences.
Choose to implement such a wide-reaching vaccine mandate, and choose to do it so gleefully with respect to creating two tiers in society (remember, "it is what it is") and there might just be consequences.
Consequences may include declining popularity, increasingly unfavourable media coverage - especially from the overseas press that once worshipped you - and, most notably - a bunch of protestors camping out on your front lawn turning the place into a Woodstock replica.
Choices have consequences indeed.
Why not make the choice to at least hear out those who are affected and angry? Why not make the choice to outline a clear path to dropping mandates, so that the protestors can see there is a pathway out of this?
For over four years we have had a government incapable of acting about anything until well after it has happened. And this is exactly the same case here. This time though they can’t pull the counterpane of it all over their heads & our heads, and look to the spin merchants to oil them out of their hole. It is there starkly, undeniably for all of NZ & the world to view. A sheer display of inertia, incompetence and dereliction. Vacillation in its worst possible form. Self satisfaction & arrogance are no defence against reality, when it strikes.
And how would you have felt at pictures of children lying prostrate, bleeding on parliament grounds as a riot policeman stood over them with a baton. Or being led away in handcuffs?
There are kids there. That they are being used as human shields is secondary to the fact that any response has to take them into account.
enemies of reason and science
I think that is going too far. We have to take some risks if we want to retain our freedom. A free society is worth making some sacrifices for and one of those sacrifices could be accepting the consequences of allowing people to choose if they want to be vaccinated or not or wear a mask or not.
That is all very well in a narrow selfish context but what of the rights and freedoms of the rest of the population who you will infect. The children and infants, those with medical vulnerabilities. the medical staff who risk their lives caring for you. You have a very self centered and childish viewpoint.
I'm vaxxed and boosted, but I think the time for mandates has passed.
Considering the vaccine resistance of Omicron everyone is going to come in contact with Covid anyway. Mandates achieve little.
The main advantage of the vaccine is that it majorly reduces seriousness of disease.
Kids aren't affected by Corona Virus. Why do people still, after 2 years, not know this?
The immuno-compromised are a tiny fraction of society, you can't majorly inconvenience 99.98% of the population to protect the very ill. They will (and have always) have to protect themselves.
And health care workers and their families are by far the largest group to suffer from fatalities. By as early as May 2020, 62,000 excluding their families in the USA alone had died from covid.
And I imagine that you will be expecting them to look after you and risk their lives if you have to go to hospital.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-19-cases-among-health-…
health care workers and their families are by far the largest group to suffer from fatalities
Did you even read the article you posted? Your comment makes it sound like 62,000 healthcare workers, excluding their families, had died from COVID in the US. The article states that only 219 had died, which is about 0.002% of total deaths in the US at that time. This was in a pre-vaccine environment in possibly the unhealthiest country in the world.
Fair point. The old trap of seeing what you want to see. It did seem an awful lot for so early in the pandemic.
Here are so more up to date figures from the WHO who estimate 118,000 deaths world wide for health staff,
https://www.who.int/news/item/20-10-2021-health-and-care-worker-deaths-…
Your comet re pre vaccine seems a bit hypocritical. Are you suggesting that because health care staff and a lot of other people are vaccinated and contribute to a higher level of public safety, it is OK for you to not get vaccinated. You are happy to benefit from other people taking a risk in your mind by being vaccinated but not prepared to play your part.
Huh? I’m triple vaccinated. My wife is a doctor. But I’m more scared of her getting a needle injury or some psycho coming through ED than her dying because of the unvaccinated. My point was that in a pre-vaccine world risks were high for medical professionals but in a post-vaccine world the risks are negligible. The biggest risk is to those who choose not to vaccinate themselves, but that is a poor choice for them to make and I respect their right to make bad choices.
Bravo!
The govt likes to make it look like its the pandemic of the unvaccinated.
It has always been the pandemic of the unhealthy. 2/3 deaths in the US had 6 or more comorbidities.
healthy kids are completely uneffected due to their strong immune system and un-abused organs.
Why anyone would want to potentially harm their kids with the jab to protect old infirm people is beyond me. Doesnt seem ethical!
Definitely going to far.
Even the ones who are clearly on the nuttier end of the spectrum aren't necessarily avowed enemies of science - although some do espouse harbour anti-expertise and anti-intellectualism values - but are more simply just absent of reason and science.
Interesting that we are seeing a replay of the anti-mask protesting that occurred a century ago, in a pandemic that killed tens of millions.
Did any societies spiral into totalitarianism as a result of non-medical interventions and limits on events etc. back then? Some on social media these days draw awfully long bows.
did not see 150 police and snatch squads turn up at the Auckland Domain protests either -- less than 18 hours before that happened in Wellington !
Suspect the Be Kind version of Guantanamo Bay - sprinklers and Barry Manilo - has only galvanised people -- and where many may have drifted away in the weekends storms - already wet from the sprinklers and creating a festival spirit around the music -- most are now determined to stay! -
Could be fun next weekend - as i suspect the numbers will swell significantly joined by many people who were only vaccinated to keep their lifelong careers and vocations, and many others who believe in Democracy and the right to protest - without tiny Water Cannon pointed in their direction :)
Yes I think Trotter misses the mark when he says only 5% of population don't support the mandates. Polls indicated only 75% of people wanted to take the vax before the no jab no job policies and passports came about. So that's 20% of the population who only got vaxxed because they needed to. In my own circle of friends that 20% were mostly younger people.
Got a source showing preference rather than simply timing as the cause? It seemed 75% had received both doses days before the mandate "with higher numbers for those who have had one vaccination".
Sources are scarce, but interestingly enough the American Medical Association (from the land of the freeTM) shows 96% of members chose to get vaccinated, with 45% of those not yet vaccinated at the time of the survey still planning to be.
Interestingly enough, anti-vaxxers in this instance are part of a longer-term trend of polarisation in trust in vaccines (which certainly anecdotally resembles what I've seen on Facebook over the years):
Most New Zealanders’ (60%) maintained strong vaccine confidence throughout the years (i.e. vaccine believers), but 30% expressed decreasing confidence over time (i.e. vaccine skeptics). Around 10% were former skeptics who had low vaccine confidence in 2013 but showed increasing confidence thereafter. Men, Europeans/Others, those more educated and living in more affluent regions were more likely to be vaccine believers. Relative to former skeptics, women, older individuals and those with lower education were more likely to be vaccine skeptics.
That's an interesting study into hesitancy on 'normal' vaccines. I don't know of anyone who is against them, probably only because it isn't talked about.
Interesting though that the uptake of boosters isn't great (something like 60% of those eligible ?) despite the omicron getting going properly now. That also tells me some people aren't that enthusiastic about the pfizer. I don't plan on getting boosted until the 6 month mark when I must to keep doing volunteer work.
You can't sign off that article talking about the team of 5 million being let down when further up you write, "They may represent fewer than one-in-ten New Zealanders, but one-in-ten of 5 million is 500,000."
Because clearly it isn't a team of 5 million. And I don't think it ever was. Nor ever will be. On any issue.
The team of 5 million is just a marketing lie pushed by Ardern. She conveniently forgot to include the one million expats and also all the people here who don't and will never, ever agree to get jabbed with this experimental drug with totally unknown as yet long-term safety data. I read Matt King believes the figure of +90% jabbed is far more than it really is, so the size of the opposition is likely much greater than 500,000 citizens, it could be even approaching 1,000,000 if you include ex-pats against the jab too.
This week the injunction is being heard by the group seeking justice against the MIQ system. I hear they raised $197,000 through crowd-funding for this purpose. I suspect this week is going to be the worst ever for this dreadful government.
JA's political capital was already cooked before last weeks episode. Her 2021 performance was dismal, deceitful & detrimentally enacted. Her dismissive response last week is reminiscent of her attitude right from the beginning. Arrogant. As for Mallard'... quack, quack. What an embarrassment the man is. In fact man is too kind, he is a child.
This is a continuing story of an inability to enforce the law in nz . Many times in the last few years the failure of law enforcement has been evident in issues regarding crimes from the gangs and use of firearms. The only time some spine to enforce the law occurs is when a law enforcement officer is killed or injured. Protest is legitimate when it abides by the nations or regional laws , when these are not adhered to nz citizens should expect law enforcement agencies to do their job .
'Ardern Government’s refusal to “go hard and go early” against the protesters has created the worst of all political narratives: that it has become weak and ineffectual.'
Are you suggesting that we should model after the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests?
These people were protesting on parliament grounds and they didn't trespass or occupied the building itself.
Protests is a normal part of democracy; surely you are not advocating socialist dictatorship and police state, are you?
Yes there is much about CT's article here that has left me uncomfortable with what he seems to be suggesting. To be advocating a hard crack down at the beginning of a legitimate protest bodes ill for any protest once the precedent has been set. But equally the Government's attitude is a concern too.
Perhaps we can bring the election forward - quite a lot, so we can all get to vote on it?
The Springbok Tour would be the place to look to find any precedent.
But otherwise the editor is right about unsubstantiated. I meant to put the qualifier that I don't actually believe the news myself, I am just reporting it.
But I've got a friend, a former Police Officer, that was broadcasting live from the protest side on Thursday, so I'm a little bit better informed of the events than the editor. However she is unable to "substantiate" the number of cops quitting. Actually I had two video news feeds live. Now one woman from my Waka Ama team is onsite there. More are heading down.
The interesting thing is that 10,000 or so people there are not going hungry, there is logistical support to keep them there.
The protests are only tangentially related to covid. They are symptomatic of much wider and growing frustration with the way we are being governed, and the impacts of that.
And although they are extremists, they mirror in some way the views of many kiwis, including myself.
If you haven't had the Pfizer vaccine you are about to get the Omicron vaccine. And just like the Pfizer one.Half of you wont even feel it. Time for the media to start reporting the daily number of hospitalisations Because of Covid. Not people in hospital for other conditions that just happen to have Covid as well. Also the number of people in ICU because of Covid. But who is going to click on that?
Exactly -- There is a reason that Middlemore and South Auckland have the highest positive numbers -- because so many people sick with other conditions are going there, testing positive and then their "large family groups" as the government described it are tested and all positive but not symptomatic -- was the same during the Delta outbreak. They should only be recorded as COVID patients in ICU if thats why they are there - not its ifs because of a car crash or heart attack. Scaremongering tactics
...time for the media to start reporting the daily number of hospitalisations
Which is entirely the point of all non-medical and medical interventions to date. To get to that point.
Sometimes I wonder if NZers are just getting to this point (of frustration and conspiracist "it's all about control" thinking etc) because they haven't seen what's gone overseas or had relatives or friends in countries more badly affected. So it all feels a bit unreal and it's easy to believe it was only ever "sniffles" and never affected health systems overseas badly.
Good point,
But how are you able to get good data on deaths when our policy is
"Recorded Covid deaths include all cases where a person was classified as having an active case of the virus at the time of death. In some of these cases, the underlying cause of death may have been unrelated to COVID-19."
Like with flu statistics (remember the pneumonia graphic from previous years that had folk riled up on social media in 2020) I suspect they will take time to be reconciled more accurately. In certain countries - e.g. a developing country where I have family - the true count will never be known as people had to pay for their own tests and many thus died without ever being tested. (We have lived in a comfortable, slightly unreal pandemic, in comparison.)
Excess mortality is clearly one helpful measure, and that's been covered pretty well by health scientists, statisticians etc.
The Economist - a nice, non-socialist source - has interesting coverage here and quite clearly identifies that tolls are likely under-counting: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-trac…
It was true, but not on parliament lawns, in the bushes. I saw remnants, but smelt it first, when I walked through just as the weather turned super nasty on Saturday. Likely it got mostly washed away in those downpours though.
As I understand it, the portaloos were only added once it looked like they weren't going to leave. Prior to this, there was a bit of bush pooping. Problem is that many of the tents are set up in the bush, so people were possible pooping near where they slept.
Now the portaloos are there, there is likely less issues. However knowing what happens at such places (anyone that's been to an extended music festival will know), hygiene is likely not front of mind for most. The portaloos are only about 20m away from the pop up food stall, possibly some mixing going on there. But the biggest threat now is likely that pop up kitchen, it's basically a bunch of people cooking for everyone on BBQs that never seem to go off or be cleaned. Although being always on may make them less of a health risk, there was stacks of food lying around with people grabbing half cold food. Combine this with a muddy environment where there aren't any places to wash hands or bathe and you have a recipe for public health issues. The police etc are right to be concerned about it, but should just implement some sanitation stations and pop up showers.
To me this is propaganda trying to frame the protestors as disgusting or unclean because they are willing to tolerate this and also it's seeking the moral grounds to remove the children from the site so the police can have another go. You see, everyone's using the same words but the detail is very light, used overseas. I wonder if the public here can detect it here yet.
The protests in Wellington offer a great opportunity for the government to reassess the situation and reverse the flawed ideology they have been pursuing.
Simply follow what other countries like Denmark and Sweden have done. They have already set a precedent to follow so it's not even very bold.
Jacinda Ardern can publicly thank the protestors for waking the government up. After all, whatever were they thinking going down this track of robbing Kiwis of their freedom?
The government is planning on easing restrictions anyway so just bring it forward a bit.
Don't even need to thank the protestors (therefore saving face)
Just use Omicron as the "game changer" excuse, as it's abundantly clear from case numbers and LOIs etc that the vaccinated can catch and transmit Covid now.
Yes, they are more likely to avoid serious illness and hospitalisation. But the final few % unvaccinated will never be convinced to get jabbed, and they're going to be exposed to Omicron one way or the other, so what is the ongoing point in excluding them from society and risking further radicalisation?
Stand up at the podium, declare the mandate a success in the sense that it got us a very high vaccination rate (throw a few platitudes out about understanding it hasn't been easy, there have been consequences for some etc but it was all worth it for protecting the health system) and then say that Omicron has changed the game and the vax passport system is no longer fit for purpose.
The vax passport/mandate is only going to decline in popularity from here, as other countries drop theirs, Omicron spreads, and the inevitable booster update is required.
Why continue to flog a dead horse?
Yep, these are the points I was making the other day. I was all for the vaccine mandates even 1-2 weeks ago, but now with booming case numbers and potentially waning immunity from vaccinations, we need to let it go. They don't make sense anymore, aren't going to convince anyone who isn't already vaxxed.
Government is scared of looking like they caved into the protesters. Pride is getting in the way of sense.
There is, I would quietly suggest, something of a haunted and hunted look to our PM nowadays? Every famous person gets to realise sooner or later, that fame is a double edged sword and unavoidably, the higher the pedestal climbed, the greater the fall. You are right Belle, the display this morning on TV was frantic & frightened, a wildly gesticulating marionette, not willing to listen to a question let alone answer one. That was not the display of a PM in control.
I have failed to discern any credible messages from these apparent protesters. Not impressed when one uses their children in the front line to further a message / view of the parents. My view is, the police are doing a good job in this instance, and our politicians from all sides are showing good leader ship in collectively not engaging with this subset of our population.
So what do you think of the PM using all kids for her Climate change rallies?
If an 8 year old can comprehend and therefore protest a massively complex issue like climate change. Then surely they can comprehend a simple thing like a mandate, and protest accordingly.
After all they are directly impacted, and probably more so than their parents... My teacher is not at school anymore, Mummy wasn't allowed to take me to the Zoo, daddy lost his job and now we have no money for food, Uncle Joe couldn't come to my birthday at McDonalds.
She wont stay. Imagine electioneering. She cant go out into the community like she used to. Even school kids will give her the side eye now.When is she ever seen in public now? Why would that be different in 18 months with inflation in full swing, fuel sky high and interest rates 3% higher. Her days are numbered. The number is small
I wonder if Chris Trotter has spent any time at the protest, finding out who the protesters are, and what they want.
I have, and Trotter is completely wrong if he thinks they are anti-vaxxers. A lot of the people I have spoken to are vaccinated.
The protesters are a good cross section of society, in terms of race, sex, age, educational level, occupation and place on the political spectrum.
A good number of them have lost their jobs, have been damaged by the vaccine (or their family and friends have), or are frustrated because they can't arrange to go overseas to connect to loved ones for fear of not getting back into the country.
What unites them is a desire to see an end to the mandates.
False reporting, coupled with the increasingly desperate and uninformed attempts to smear them, will only strengthen their resolve to stick it out.
The camp infrastructure is now very impressive and the supplies are very well organised, so the protest is set up to last a long time.
It will only end when politicians listen to them.
I guess the cops/army could be instructed to stage a brutal clearance exercise, but that would only gain the protesters more sympathy and support.
I though the protests were going to be badly timed (most people in Canada know anecdotally Omicron is mild and we are still under the MSM scare) and counterproductive when I first saw it reported last week. Then, the government and police got completely mucked it up by going in hard to disperse the protest mid last week failing and then looking like complete out of touch dots when backed of the lesser deterrents of sprinklers and music. The optics of turning on the sprinklers and then talking about the welfare of the protestors in the mud...
When I look at the photos in the Media, I see a lot of rural and provincial NZ represented there and very few who I would I would associate with our urban population. (The use of hay to deal with mud.) When the media try frame the protestors as a angry and unclean societal rejects they might be too out touch to realise this might not play out as they think in regional areas.
I now think the protest might start to cause the government problems as it comes out that the vax is useless at stopping omicron spread. Its currently -100% according to RNZ but there will be many confounds here.
Interesting link, currently 4000 odd cases, which will be massivley under what there actually is and zero in ICU.
I get that the traffic light system is meant to calm the spread so people don't all end up crook at once but the horse is miles down the road.
Labour need to sort this out or it'll be the death of them at the next election.
The only sensible thing Labour can do would be to abandon mandates and other controls and let people get back to living their lives without big brother trying to do it for them.
But fear of covid is the only thing Ardern and crew have going for them, so they will push it for all they are worth.
I think it’s over for this government you can’t stop omicron if people don’t want boosters fine the first two jabs did not stop it obviously it’s about control, once this has ripped through country no one will use vax passports and any mandates will be forgotten. I just hope we can get our freedoms back Jacinda and her government will be gone as soon as next election comes round.
Correct me if I'm wrong but no mainstream political parties have a different stance on mandates?
Is this not a legitimate public health policy? If you're not vaccinated you are more likely to be sicker for longer therefore more likely to spread the virus.
This is precisely the reason for the mandate. It's not a nice friendly way to get people vaccinated but it's not holding them down and injecting them.
Yes other countries are removing the mandates but they are far later in their stage of spread. We're still at the stage of very few people having been exposed to it so slowing it down seems a reasonable thing to do?
JA has stated that the mandates will be removed when they're no longer needed - maybe not that clearly but she probably should make that clear. As for putting a date on it - how? Maybe relate it to hospital capacity?
The Government should apply common sense by encouraging non-mandatory vaccination, masking, washing hands, and social distancing. For those people who don't want to do so, the statistics suggest that there is the risk of illness, long-term disease and possibly death. Let people make choices, including poor ones, and let our health system triage, as they already do, and everyone can move forward. Many people, including those vaccinated, are over the paternalistic nonsense and exclusion of people from society. We risk creating a minority who may be provoked into more extreme conspiracies and behaviour than they have been already. This risk to our society is far greater than Omicron.
There is about a two weeks from infection to ICU and another week or two deaths and then you have to factor in the elderly will be among the last to catch omicron. We won't get solid data for a while.
Unlike everywhere else we started with negligible Delta so I would expect our deaths(or hospitalisations)/infections rate to be even lower. Looking at the positive test rate I think our "experts" might be right for once that infections could be 10 times cases.
Totally disagree Tiga, turning those sprinklers on was the biggest mistake Mallard has ever made.
This protest will be the gift that keeps giving for a many months I'd guess.
Unless of course the govt backs down on the mandates. chuckles to self as there are two chances of that and the first one is less than &$%# all...
I always pass on Trotter, don't find it worth the time to read him. He is off the mark in parts of this, but nails one part. That is there is a complete failure to understand the protest.
Unfortunately he also fails to fully grasp that it is a whole bunch of people from a wide swathe of backgrounds that have simply had gutsful. It isn't a movement, they've just had enough. That is why I say above in my comment that "they are us".
The protest movement will grow, and while the cognisant failure as to why they are there continues from leaders and Police it will continue to grow. You can't suppress sentiment, just ask the stock market at the moment.
I'll call now it, in fact already have. The protest is a seminal moment in New Zealand History. The failure to clear the protests on Thursday a failure of resolve to match that of the people of New Zealand that have had enough. The image of the young Maori lad having his head crushed by a Police Officer is a seminal image, I woke Friday to see it going around the world as the new image of New Zealand.
While the hynotised crowd are in denial the question I am asking is "what is the end game here"? I don't see one.
Omicron is here over 90% of people have been vaccinated.this will go throughout NZ very quickly as a huge number of people will not even know they have omicron,vaccine will not stop it. If people feel worried get booster as chances are at one time or another you will get omicron from all of my friends in uk who have had it some had cold symptoms some no problems did not even notice. A number of them had booster mainly the old ones but even the ones with just two jabs were fine.
The tenor of Trotters article suggests violence be used against the protestors. There are grannies and grandads in that crowd.
I too have heard of police resigning in disgust at the violence used on thursday.
Be careful what you wish for Trotter. If you think its bad for labour optics already, imagine how it would look dragging grannies out by the hair.
Yes they did.
So whats with Luxon? An old fulla on talk back this morning called it. He wont get votes if he isnt willing to listen. He is not willing to go and listen to any of these protestors. The only thing I can surmise. All the political parties are held hostage by big pharma money.
Exactly.
He just needs to listen, and show he's at least trying to.understand. That would be a start.
He doesn't have to promise anything.
Having said that, there are clearly some irrational and angry people at the protest, trying to engage with such people can be a 'no win' situation.
It is pretty well circulated, and now well accepted, that there is a mass formation event happening.
One of the characteristics of those hypnotised is the need for an enemy, which conjurs up violence. I'm seing the same thing privately, this theme of violence in peoples demeanour that I would never have thought them capable. Any discussion with these people and they can't let go of focus of the enemy, wider more balanced discussion is impossible. Interest.co has largely been under the spell for two years.
Aye Scarfie that is not amiss, something of a powder keg looking for a detonator forming. Not saying at all that this is a mob, but a discordant gathering, a few hot heads incited, can certainly quickly create & ignite a mob. Deep divisions have been inflicted on our society, smouldering anger, as with spontaneous combustion to a haystack.
For the long-suffering citizens of Wellington
Haha long suffering?? Try going to Auckland and mentioning that, they will tell you what long suffering is.
the enemies of reason and science
Ah what? Denmark, Norway, UK, Ireland, Sweden, Finland have all removed their covid restrictions completely. So are they the enemies of reason and science as well?
No, the "Science" is just now changing because it is politically required to.
..to be fair those countries are well through the virus. We really haven't had it yet.
There is real fear amongst front line health workers about what is to come. Many of these people have associates overseas and have first hand accounts of what to expect.
I suspect much of NZ will be in for a very big shock this winter.
Perfect storm is brewing.
There is real fear amongst front line health workers about what is to come
I have many family who are front line health workers. None are scared. They just need to be properly resourced, consulted and they will do their jobs. The Italian scenes pre-vaccine and Delta scenes, are not the same as what we're seeing with high levels of vaccination with Omicron.
Sorry. I should have said they are not fearful. Happy?
COVID is also not the reason they are leaving in droves. Pay, rosters and funding are the issues. Tax increases haven't gone down well in primary care either, where it sounds like they'll also be the ones dealing with much of the Omicron outbreak with no extra funding or resource.
Yep health workers will cop it unfortunately. Labour has had two years to resolve the issue of lack of workers and ICU beds. This is the real scandal - our health system can't cope with any sort of crisis that requires more than 500 ICU beds. Forget about a virus with a >99% survival rate - what if we were to have a major earthquake, volcanic eruption, or terrorist attack that left more than 500 in need of ICU care? Tough luck Kiwis.
Find those that are on the opposite side of the table. That is those that would prioritise spending the public purse , $ billions, on state of the art hospitals and expert staff as required, instead of a white elephant railway to an airport or a pie in the sky airport in central otago.
Yeah, that was a weird argument that the "science is changing".
They've used non-medical interventions to mitigate the pandemic and are now coming out the other side as expected. Then, they remove restrictions. Funnily enough, much as scientists called for from the start.
It's hard for humans to deal with uncertainty. We see many responses, exacerbated by social media.
1 Is the vaccine mandate protest just the touchstone for deeper issues?
Could the seemingly relentless impoverishment of an increasingly large proportion of our population really be at the core of our problem? Every permutation of government that people have voted for continue to pursue policies of increasingly unaffordable homes exacerbated by a low wage low productivity work force largely caused by out of control immigration. This immigration has also placed such stresses on every aspect of our society and infrastructure that every one is feeling very very pressured and stressed. Voting for a different party makes no difference so all that this leaves people is direct action. These causes and affects appear to be playing out around much of the rest of the world. If I am right, then this is only just the beginning of what will be long and very turbulent period.
As I have quoted before from JFK
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."
2 There appears to be a central driving force for this that can be traced back to the GOP/Trump in the states. It was patently obvious that there was/is a strong connection between these forces and Putin's Russia. Putin is ex KGB, the worlds largest criminal, and clearly a master of propaganda and manipulation. It seems to me that the points raised in 1 above, hand him the perfect environment to undermine western democracy. What fools we are to stand by and not address our own problems and hand him this weapon.
Done that. I think that my next appointment may be for a dose of Omicron. That should give my immune system a lot more genetic material to work with than just a spike protein.
There are lots of things that I could and do criticize the government for. But generally their handling of Covid has been pretty good. Hard to argue with that, look at the rest of the world. This was all pretty much new territory for them and they had to make it up as they went along. While they had to come up with the best solutions and hold the line, they had every pressure group and fringe interest group pulling at them from every direction. You only have to look overseas, especially the UK to see where this sort of political yo-yoing gets you. I think that it must have been very hard getting any sort of timely, honest and disciplined performance out of the various arms of the public service and their lapses were obvious. Thank goodness for the discipline within the armed forces. Maybe every head of a government department should be required to spend a meaningful period of their career in the armed services.
You only have to consider the procession of foolish and contradictory statements that came out of National to realize that their management would have been a lot like the mess that Boris Johnson created
What is your test for "pretty good". Any empirical process or just gut feel?
I'll tell you my benchmark. A friend based in the USA is a professor of applied statistics. His job is to check other peoples use of statistics. He is doing an academic paper on the cost of the Covid Response, economically and in terms of lives. From the outset he expected the cost of "management" to be higher than if they just left it alone.
Chris Martensen, published here since my early days (circa 2010) has some interesting benchmarks to for gauging public health policy. Hint....the USA has failed badly.
Chap from the 'Naki (Brett Power) who had his case thrown out of the High (Supreme?) Court should perhaps start a petition to the GG to have the Government sacked. It'd be a good test of the system and tell us all something important.
He wanted to arrest the Minster of Health for murder. He'd get more traction and credibility doing it another way.
At its core, the protests are about our bill of rights... they are being trampled on now by this Labour government
Whether the protests are deemed right or wrong, the government has indeed circumvented laws designed to protect our freedoms through the bill of rights...
This is copied directly from the bill of rights table of contents - How many apply now?
10 Right not to be subjected to medical or scientific experimentation
11 Right to refuse to undergo medical treatment
13 Freedom of thought, conscience, and religion
14 Freedom of expression
16 Freedom of peaceful assembly
17 Freedom of association
18 Freedom of movement
(1) Everyone lawfully in New Zealand has the right to freedom of movement and residence in New Zealand.
(2) Every New Zealand citizen has the right to enter New Zealand.
(3) Everyone has the right to leave New Zealand.
(4) No one who is not a New Zealand citizen and who is lawfully in New Zealand shall be required to leave New Zealand except under a decision taken on grounds prescribed by law.
19 Freedom from discrimination
One thing I've noticed over the decades - government (whether LB or NAT) employs distraction tactics like these whenever there's a controversial legislation that govt needs passed.
An MP may say or do something silly (Trevor Mallard seems to get picked for this duty often) or some project will get spotlighted that's suddenly got some issues, just to take eyes off the real issues (Campaign financing, more taxes, unfavorable rules, unpopular leader, etc).
Yes, it may be coincidental, but it's interesting how often it's happened that a pattern can actually be seen... Even this parliament protest is a (welcomed) distraction for the govt who've failed to deliver on housing affordability, inflation, healthcare or poverty reduction.
Chris’s Trotter clearly wasn’t in Nelson last week when the convoy went through
I saw with my own eyes thousands of people lining the streets with nz flags and signs cheering the convoy on. He might be hanging out with the politicians to much.
I sense a large portion of society is no ok with the division this government is creating
What does every think of "Businesses near Parliament struggling with anti-vaccine mandate protest on doorstep" from RNZ?
To me, the people most effected seem somewhat sympathetic to the protest. They seem to be looking for some small concessions to the protestors to both make them go away but maybe also they think they (and thus everyone) diverse some reductions in mandates. The Backbenches owner was will to point out on RNZ last week that government had kept him locked down for longer.
I think the people secretly hoping mandates and lock downs go away might be rather large event if they are are not ready to make a stand.
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