By Benje Patterson*
People are leaving Auckland in their droves and making a life for themselves in the regions. You have probably already heard this line bandied about by friends, but data recently released by Statistics New Zealand has confirmed that this is no urban myth.
Over the June 2021 year, Auckland lost a net 13,500 people to other parts of New Zealand, following net internal migration losses of 11,400 and 11,100 people in 2019 and 2020 respectively.
These results are consistent with a trend that I identified in research a couple of years ago where I looked at Auckland’s emerging population exodus to the regions. My research found that the exodus of Aucklanders to the regions had accelerated from a net 2,727 people in 2014 to 12,942 people in 2017.
Where are people heading?
My earlier research highlighted that Aucklanders heading to Northland, Waikato, and the Bay of Plenty formed part of the story, with other key benefactors being places like Queenstown-Lakes and an emerging trend into Hawke’s Bay and Nelson-Tasman.
Since Covid-19 hit, the trend of people moving into regions beyond the periphery of Auckland seems to have accelerated. The trend is also apparent around some of New Zealand’s other major cities – including Christchurch, Wellington, Tauranga and Hamilton.
The following table shows the top 20 places in New Zealand for regional migration in the June 2021 year.
At the top of the list has been Selwyn, as Christchurch continues to sprawl out, with Waimakariri not far behind in fourth. Incredibly, the net gains of regional migrants in Selwyn have been the equivalent of 3.5% of Selwyn’s population over the past year.
Sandwiched in the middle of Selwyn and Waimakariri are Tauranga (2nd) and Waikato district (3rd), which have long been popular destinations for migrants from Auckland. A range of other destinations in Bay of Plenty, Waikato, and Northland also rank highly, with many of these being smaller districts.
In fifth position as New Zealand’s most popular attractor of regional migrants is Queenstown-Lakes, with regional migration accounting for 1.8% of Queenstown-Lakes’ population over the past year. Nearby Central Otago also comes in not far behind, with a 410 person net gain of regional migrants being equivalent to 1.7% of the population.
What’s driving these trends?
The exodus of people from Auckland and some of our other big cities into the regions is being driven by a combination of ‘push’, ‘pull’, and ‘enabling’ factors.
On the push side – a key factor is house prices. Rising unaffordability has hit all of New Zealand, but none more so than our biggest cities. The socio-economic consequence of these extreme house prices has been a pattern of migration out of the cities and into neighbouring regions and beyond. Prices are also rising in the regions, but are not yet out of reach in such a widespread fashion.
On the pull side – a key factor has been lifestyle. Covid-19 has been a wake-up call for many and given us time to reflect on what matters in life. A quieter life, with simple pleasures and a nourishing environment to raise children is clearly something that matters for many. The allure of the ‘good life’ pulls people into our regions.
But alone these push and pull factors are not enough – there are other practicalities which are necessary to enable people to actually carve out a new life in our regions. At the top of the list of these enabling factors is employment.
Over the past year, the employment pendulum has clearly swung in the regions’ favour. Not only has job growth been strongest in regional New Zealand off the back of good returns in the primary sector, but the extensive field testing of working from home during lockdowns has finally broken conservative attitudes to remote working. The reality is that many professional roles can for the large part be performed anywhere and New Zealand’s extensive regional flight network means that it is not too challenging to periodically pop up to head office or fly for some face-to-face time with a client.
Even as life begins to slowly get back to normal as we put the pandemic behind us, it is hard to see the rekindled love affair with regional New Zealand going away anytime soon. The legacy of Covid may be some permanent changes to the way we work, what we value in life, and where we choose to live.
*Benje Patterson is an economist who is passionate about New Zealand’s regions. This article is used with permission, and was first published here.
37 Comments
We chose a North Waikato lifestyle block over an Auckland Section and it has been a lot of fun. I just wish we had gone south of Mercer as we are still included in the Auckland lockdown!
We got a house on several hectares for less than an average house in town on a small section. But people should not under estimate the maintenance required. Outgoings are much higher than for a town house. Fencing, power line issues, septic tank, roof water systems, driveway maintenance etc etc. Not to mention petrol costs for getting to town for shopping and kids sports.
Living a simple life can come at quite a high price.
We left Wellington for Hawkes Bay right around the time the GFC was starting to really bite, and eventually went rural too. You're absolutely right about the costs - running a rookie eye over infrastructure on a block can be a costly mistake, and I'd recommend anyone considering it to involve someone experienced before making any offers. Also, be prepared to live in a perpetual construction zone, possibly in a rundown house, for many years/forever.
Having said that I never want to move back to a city, they're nice to visit but I value the space and relish the challenges rural life brings.
I laughed when I read your comments about living in a perpetual construction zone it’s so true. We have scaffolding up right now. Helps to keep the local tradies in work.
I just love being rural. I did have to give up on the dream of a boat though, as there is always something else to spend the money on. My own Country Estate but beans on toast for dinner.
waikatohome
Here is a little saying I learnt on my mother's knee
A mushroom grows out in the open, a toadstool under a tree.
Your kids will have a better life growing up in your country lifestyle realm. Think of all those poor kids growing up in those shoe-box-size clautrophobic city apartments in this day and age.
Define rich? Pay bills, medical insurance, good international holiday each year, retire comfortably at 60? Or own a boat, Bach, BMW….2 very different things. Or having very little but working part time and able to train 15 hrs a week for your triathlons. Eastern beach deserted, quiet roads in Hunua….
Exactly. 100Mbps Wi-Fi at my place in Tauranga and for an extra $10 a month it could be 200Mbps but I simply don't need that speed. This allows you to work from home with no issues at all. Setup the home office and your away. This coupled with "Early Retirement" with those pulling the plug due to Covid has seen strong growth in the Bay of Plenty. Auckland is a hell hole really, your there for work. There was never a work opportunity in my line of business in Tauranga but if you no longer have to work or can work remotly your gone from Auckland in a flash.
Personally, as an expat with close connections to NZ, I would prefer to live in a place like Whangarei compared to the 'sophisticated' urbanism of Auckland. The solution is to position yourself career-wise where you can be as flexible as possible and be able to work from anywhere.
We moved to Napier in early 2017 and it has been a mixed bag. Great weather here, probably the best in the country. Very little traffic and lower house prices (although they have gone bonkers over the past few years). There is so much to like about it here. At the same time we have found getting things done to be challenging at times. Napier likes to think of itself as a small city but In our experience it’s more like a “big village”. As much as we have enjoyed our time here we plan to leave next year and will most likely return to Auckland. Many people think we’re mad doing that but we just feel we don’t really fit in here. We’re big city people and a big city Napier is not. All that said, no regrets and it has been positive overall.
All depends on where you go and what you do for work. I did quite like Melbourne when I went there several times but the reality is most people don't have anything like the money required to move to many parts of Sydney for example. On the whole is just another rat race over there.
As the govt wont move MIQs out of the biggest city and have proven they will lockdown over a million people for months the exodus will be large. Wait until Aucklanders can leave and view houses in the regions post 15 december. The govt introduced travel bubble in the face of delta and have now reduced miqs as delta plus brews, so more lockdowns are probable. Many Aucklanders have houses in the regions and wont come back once we can leave. Auckland has too many people anyway but not great for Auck based businesses.
Lots of myths about “good schools” my daughter has straight excellences and goes to the local decile 4 school. It is a great school and she learns to mix with everyone not just a lucky few. Schooling is a personal choice but she wouldn’t have done any better at a private school.
Auckland was a great place in my youth when it was a third of the size. No more. The population growth only comes from it's better than places like Mumbai.
There are some fallacies including thats it's economically productive. But it's actually just a place with mediocre jobs and low income. Lilke anywhere there are some rich folk, but a low percentage.
If you are entreprenurial, and seek reward for it, get out of there.
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