Property values are almost flat in Auckland compared to a year ago, up strongly in Wellington and declining in Christchurch, according to Quotable Value.
According to QV the average value of all residential dwellings throughout the country was $677,618 in March, up 7.3% compared to March last year.
But there were substantial variations around the country.
In Auckland the average value of homes was $1,055,992 in March, up just 1% compared to a year earlier.
Within the region, only the North Shore posted any significant gains, with property values up 2.9% compared to a year ago.
Coastal North Shore properties continue to be the most expensive in the country with an average value of $1,422,283, up 3.4% on March last year.
Homes on the Gulf Islands (mainly Waiheke) have also posted a healthy gain in value of 8.5% over the last 12 months
But in the rest of the region, values have risen only modestly and in some cases declined.
In Rodney average values are up just 1% on a year ago, in Waitakere they are down -0.5%, in Manukau they are up just 0.3% and on the region's southern flank where values are the lowest, they are up just 1.9% in Papakura and 1.2% in Franklin.
The figures in Auckland are in stark contrast to March last year, when average values across the regions were up 12.3% compared to a year earlier.
"First home buyers are being more active in the market and they are taking advantage of less competition from investors and also lower deposit schemes being offered by banks," QV Auckland senior consultant James Steele said.
"The new build markets in areas such as Flat Bush and Hobsonville Point are also selling a little better than they were, but there has been some discounting in these developments," he said.
Average values have risen more strongly in Hamilton (+3.2%) in the year to March and in Tauranga (+4.5%) but even in these centres, QV's valuers warn that the market has cooled.
"With more homes available for sale, buyers are feeling less urgency to purchase as soon as possible and this is placing less upward pressure on prices," QV Hamilton consultant Andrew Jaques said.
Investors were also less confident about the Hamilton market and some were starting to unload properties, he said.
The market has also slowed in Tauranga, according to QV Tauranga consultant Steven Dunn.
"Despite there still being a shortage of listings in areas like Mt Maunganui, people are not jumping in and are doing more due diligence and looking at the market and seeing what's happening with values before making offers," he said.
"Prices in many areas including the popular Otumoetai have stabilised quite a bit with not much movement in values over the last few months."
The average value in the Wellington Region was $644,567 in March, up 8.2% compared to a year earlier, although QV Wellington consultant David Cornford warned that values could be flattening.
"There is still plenty of activity in the Wellington market although value growth continues to slow and it feels like we are starting to enter a period of stable property values after a couple of years of strong growth," he said.
In Christchurch the average dwelling value was $494,117 in March, down 0.6% compared to March last year.
Average values were down in all districts of the city except Banks Peninsula, but even there the rise was modest at just +0.5% for the year.
"It's taking 10 days longer on average for properties to sell from this time a year ago and with supply exceeding demand, buyers are able to be more picky than in previous years as there is no foreseeable growth and buyers are being conservative," QV Christchurch consultant Hamish Collins said.
"Vendors expectations are often higher than the reality of what they can get on the market and agents are conditioning accordingly to get the sale, or the homes are withdrawn and held," he said.
The average property value in Dunedin was $398,120 in March, up 9.4% compared to a year earlier.
"As we move toward winter it's typically a quieter time of year in the Dunedin housing market, so it will be interesting to see if the sale volumes remain stable throughout the colder months," QV Dunedin consultant Aidan Young said.
"It appears that activity has already slowed [more] during March than during the first two months of the year so this trend may continue throughout autumn and through winter," he said.
See below for the average dwelling prices in all parts of the country and their movements over the 12 months to March.
QV House Price Index - March 2018
| Territorial authority | Average current value | 12 month change% |
| Auckland Region | 1,055,992 | 1.0% |
| Wellington Region | 644,567 | 8.2% |
| Main Urban Areas | 793,788 | 6.0% |
| Total New Zealand Nationwide | 677,618 | 7.3% |
| Far North | 431,570 | 8.5% |
| Whangarei | 517,302 | 9.6% |
| Kaipara | 521,642 | 10.7% |
| Auckland - Rodney | 949,896 | 1.0% |
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | 920,361 | 0.0% |
| Rodney - North | 979,858 | 1.6% |
| Auckland - North Shore | 1,235,905 | 2.9% |
| North Shore - Coastal | 1,422,283 | 3.4% |
| North Shore - Onewa | 971,511 | 2.0% |
| North Shore - North Harbour | 1,218,876 | 2.9% |
| Auckland - Waitakere | 824,848 | -0.5% |
| Auckland - City | 1,244,218 | 1.2% |
| Auckland City - Central | 1,095,224 | 3.0% |
| Auckland_City - East | 1,566,924 | 1.6% |
| Auckland City - South | 1,097,888 | -1.0% |
| Auckland City - Islands | 1,157,589 | 8.5% |
| Auckland - Manukau | 903,135 | 0.3% |
| Manukau - East | 1,159,422 | -0.6% |
| Manukau - Central | 699,099 | 2.6% |
| Manukau - North West | 778,721 | 0.4% |
| Auckland - Papakura | 703,258 | 1.9% |
| Auckland - Franklin | 675,378 | 1.2% |
| Thames Coromandel | 721,023 | 7.5% |
| Hauraki | 387,595 | 6.4% |
| Waikato | 472,520 | 4.6% |
| Matamata Piako | 441,091 | 6.9% |
| Hamilton | 555,549 | 4.3% |
| Hamilton - North East | 699,275 | 3.2% |
| Hamilton - Central & North West | 515,877 | 3.9% |
| Hamilton - South East | 501,973 | 3.6% |
| Hamilton - South West | 498,890 | 6.8% |
| Waipa | 535,749 | 7.8% |
| Otorohanga | 300,529 | 16.4% |
| South Waikato | 228,687 | 16.4% |
| Waitomo | 196,151 | 14.6% |
| Taupo | 471,296 | 8.3% |
| Western BOP | 637,801 | 8.0% |
| Tauranga | 706,922 | 4.5% |
| Rotorua | 419,556 | 7.1% |
| Whakatane | 426,099 | 6.9% |
| Kawerau | 196,397 | 14.8% |
| Opotiki | 334,445 | 24.0% |
| Gisborne | 306,098 | 10.6% |
| Wairoa | 162,447 | -4.7% |
| Hastings | 457,145 | 14.7% |
| Napier | 497,562 | 17.6% |
| Central Hawkes Bay | 327,971 | 25.9% |
| New Plymouth | 441,101 | 5.5% |
| Stratford | 256,737 | 9.5% |
| South Taranaki | 221,370 | 10.4% |
| Ruapehu | 183,680 | 13.2% |
| Whanganui | 242,522 | 11.4% |
| Rangitikei | 201,401 | 12.3% |
| Manawatu | 330,093 | 10.3% |
| Palmerston North | 383,671 | 9.0% |
| Tararua | 187,180 | 9.7% |
| Horowhenua | 307,549 | 16.1% |
| Kapiti Coast | 549,532 | 13.8% |
| Porirua | 549,185 | 7.4% |
| Upper Hutt | 482,846 | 9.1% |
| Hutt | 532,278 | 7.2% |
| Wellington | 768,108 | 7.2% |
| Wellington - Central & South | 766,866 | 7.3% |
| Wellington - East | 820,305 | 5.0% |
| Wellington - North | 691,503 | 7.3% |
| Wellington - West | 887,276 | 9.7% |
| Masterton | 336,613 | 16.5% |
| Carterton | 380,885 | 13.8% |
| South Wairarapa | 482,212 | 24.4% |
| Tasman | 562,614 | 9.7% |
| Nelson | 566,052 | 8.4% |
| Marlborough | 454,276 | 6.3% |
| Kaikoura | N/A | N/A |
| Buller | 182,860 | -1.3% |
| Grey | 213,338 | 3.4% |
| Westland | 245,140 | 2.1% |
| Hurunui | 377,088 | 1.1% |
| Waimakariri | 439,667 | 0.2% |
| Christchurch | 494,117 | -0.6% |
| Christchurch - East | 371,211 | -0.3% |
| Christchurch - Hills | 668,595 | -0.2% |
| Christchurch - Central & North | 581,421 | -0.8% |
| Christchurch - Southwest | 473,994 | -0.7% |
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | 507,165 | 0.5% |
| Selwyn | 549,809 | 0.6% |
| Ashburton | 351,400 | 1.4% |
| Timaru | 356,448 | 5.1% |
| MacKenzie | 523,181 | 16.4% |
| Waimate | 234,446 | 7.2% |
| Waitaki | 303,914 | 16.3% |
| Central Otago | 478,415 | 9.3% |
| Queenstown Lakes | 1,120,905 | 7.5% |
| Dunedin | 398,120 | 9.4% |
| Dunedin - Central & North | 412,991 | 9.7% |
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | 366,813 | 8.4% |
| Dunedin - South | 375,458 | 9.2% |
| Dunedin - Taieri | 415,844 | 9.7% |
| Clutha | 213,517 | 12.6% |
| Southland | 280,595 | 13.1% |
| Gore | 225,255 | 8.0% |
| Invercargill | 261,762 | 10.4% |
No chart with that title exists.
71 Comments
Guess Olly Newland hit the nail on the head - as usual:
Interest.co March 2017:
“Veteran property investor and commentator Olly Newland believes the Auckland residential property market could have hit a plateau that could last for 10 years.
“I don’t think the bubble has burst. I would say it’s leaking and has become a little bit soft around the edges Newland said, who is a director of property management and advisory company Newland Burling & Co.
“The Auckland market is choppy, it’s nowhere near as buoyant as it was a year or two ago,” he said?
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/86739/only-newland-says-only-invest…
Yes and we all know why the Auckland market has plateaued so significantly, without all that lovely jubbly capital flowing in from Asia of course the market will decline to more affordable local levels. And with the current trade war there's no way that they're going to lift their capital outflows restrictions.
Now if we could only stop the blatant money laundering that's going on it the inner city areas of AKL then we would be sweet.
BigDaddy, I also agree with Olly Newland. Barring a financial shock of some kind, a plateauing of prices for ten years is the best possible outcome for our economy. From a FHB perspective, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to make financial sacrifices, save hard and earn interest while leaving the speculator Landlord to shoulder ALL the property related expenses. There is no hurry whatsoever.
This is hardly doom and gloom stuff. It's about recognising a fantastic opportunity and remaining committed to seeing it through.
TTP complains he can smell something rotten. It is the many novice overleveraged speculator/Landlords who think there can be no interruption to their "permanent" height of prosperity............
Yvil, no back peddling here. What you have just encountered is rational thinking. If there is an adverse financial event of course due to overleveraged, I believe it will crash. There has to be a trigger.
I can sense the shear bitterness in Landlord/speculators such as yourself who have to pay off debt the hard way (interest AND principle) instead of the old way (capital gains) If times are a little toxic for you, steer your energy towards making the most of a difficult situation. Sell up while you still can.
Houseworks, like I've said before, I'm not in the slightest bit interested in getting caught up in such activities, either now or in the future. Unlike yourself, I'm comfortable with my lot in life.
Besides, the best outcome to hope for is flatlined house prices for the next ten years. When adjusted for inflation (say 1-2% pa) it is a considerable decline in value. Mean time, FHB deposits earn interest!
In the event of a shock, of course I believe in a crash landing scenario. Judging by recent events overseas, the risks are incredibly high and you'd be a complete fool to ignore. What are the chances our great country, or the world for that matter, to navigate the next ten years without the occurrence of GFC2? Very Slim.
How are they wrong, I don't remember the word crash from many people, only the guys with property interests putting words into peoples mouths. Also unless your a fortune teller there still maybe a crash who knows. The house prices are at a VERY unaffordable level, quantitative easing will end and cost of borrowing will increase which pushes up interest rates, people may look at houses as a risky proposition, capital gains may not compensate some investors costs and yields may be crap, foreign buyers may not buy any more properties, immigration could stall, a recession could happen, labour may build thousands of houses etc etc. We have only just arrived here lets give things time.
We just do not know, at the moment house prices are plateauing, which normally happens before a crash. This is not the time to call people names unless you know something other people don't know. But if you did then you would be a billionaire or squillionaire and wouldn't give a shit what happens, you would just be employing body guards.
Hi Retired-Poppy,
Well, well, well! Your comments above are a revelation.......
Right up until yesterday, you have persistently and steadfastly emphasised that a market crash is imminent.
Suddenly (above) you have changed your position. Not only do you acknowledge the prospect of a "plateauing of prices" for a decade - but you add that this is "the best possible outcome for our economy".
Clearly, this represents a major shift from the "crash mentality" which had become your hallmark.
Now, I'm certainly not criticising you for your (sudden) change in position. In fact, your position is now very similar to mine. I've been saying for many months that house prices will be relatively stable for the foreseeable future.
Notably, the market data indicates the same trend.
Regards,
TTP
Yvil, you're coming across as very desperate and confused. Do you want me to go away - is that it? I repeat, it was John Wheeler who specifically predicted a crash in 2018, not me. And besides, being that 2018 isn't over yet, equities could crash. John might prove be right!.
Again, I draw your attention to the prediction I made when interest.co invited us all too. I predicted a -5% decline in Auckland values, -2% nationwide by years end. If I miss the mark, big deal! I will happily front up as its just a novice prediction after all :-)
For the record, I think the chances of house prices collapsing Ireland style is very high given the risks evolving overseas. Is that what you refer to as being my prediction of a crash?
Napier property prices continue to rise significantly but I do wonder how long the surge will continue. The salaries here in Napier are much lower than in Auckland & Wellington so it's hard to see locals who don't own their own place being thrilled with what is happening. Dumps that were 280K a couple of years ago are now closer to 450K. With that said, for those who cash out of the big cities you can still get a good deal here with a brand new 200+ square metre house on a 600+ square metre section for a little over 700K. With the Napier average now higher than in Christchurch, there is an argument that prices may have gone a little too far too fast.
It sounds like the issue Napier faces is the issues that Christchurch went through. In provincial New Zealand house prices can't get too much ahead of construction costs. Your point about a 200sqm house for a little over $700k shows the upper levels. However, there is a lag in new supply, which I think why Chch raced ahead then fell back a little.
As a Napier property owner I would love to see prices continue to increase. However, I am realistic and considering REINZ data, property prices and anecdotal information that they too have reached their peak and - at least with the onset of winter - have or will plateau.
QV figures are based on a three month period year vs year and have yet to show the more recent trend. Last month's REINZ figures showed growth in Napier prices for February to be subdued whilst CHB was very buoyant.
The outlook for the Hawkes Bay would appear to be a plateau for Napier-Hastings with CHB following suit as the price differential between urban and rural closes.
The price rises in the provinces will be short lived. Anyone thinking they can repeat the Auckland exercise will be in for a shock. Lower wages, lower rents and the grunt factor will see the provinces plateau out over the next 12 months leaving investors with a laughable 1-2 percent returns plus the 5 year bright line test. Suckers.
Yvil (Sigh) Sluggy makes a very valid point. What about the AU$500 billion in liar loans? Whats going wrong in Australia will infect their banking system, then ours for sure. I suggest at the very least expect much tighter credit availability.
Where have you been?
On sale now...coming to a subdivision near you...
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=120…
Well .... I was waiting for this March result to see how Greg will soften his language and what sort of spin he would put on it ....and he did not disappoint me !
As mentioned earlier ( around September 2017 ) that we had a bottom around July 17 and we should have a better view come March 18 to compare with the PEAK of the Market which happened in March last year, and here we are +7.3% national, +1% in auckland.
March 2017 was the number Greg used to selectively compare with whenever he wanted to inflate market price drops and here we are making higher highs from that Peak ...and we closed HIGHER in a subdued market.... so the language used now to soften the blow is : "Almost Flat " in Auckland - obviously, Greg cannot say the same about the 7.3% rise Nationwide ! - but playing to the tone of DGM seems to be the tune de jour.
Where is the crash Ladies? .... when will be a good time for you to breathe some fresh air ?- The sky is not falling and it wont anytime soon ! - the chinese are gone and auctions are quiet, clearance and volumes are down, time to sell extended by 10+ days and it has been like that for 6 months now - in fact, almost after the CoL took office - And, 2017 CVs came to underpin the new prices and set them in Concrete.
2 - 5 % will be the new rate of rise in the next few years ( back to normal) - live with it DGMs - and thank you for entertaining us so far - the party is over ... :)
Ill give you a grats on that July call although technically Jan 2018 was lower. I still think its too early to take a victory lap but so far you have been pretty accurate. Funny how none of these folk can admit they have been wrong. I expected, and still expect to an extent, a 10-15% correction, but so far I have been wrong.
The only reason it was so mild during the GFC was the huge interest rate cuts. I felt that in the event of a correction they would let it correct further than in the GFC as the tail risk is so much less now with the US in reasonable shape etc. But its possible I underestimated the power of a housing shortage on psychology and they cut LVR's much sooner than i expected.
@ Groen_mamba
there is no such thing as an Average House .... It takes what it takes to sell an individual house ...every house is different ...
Market conditions I mentioned are not leading indicators of anything - as some novice people lead you to believe they are !..... today's housing market is anything but 1+1+1=3
Live example this week: Two houses of similar age across each other on the same street , same size, build by the same company in the same year, very similar in condition and finish. One passed in at auction and is now on TM for $1075K so it is now entering its 5th week (cv 1065K) .. the second : 3 weeks on market , sold at auction for 100k over the CV of 1175K .... so, What leading indicators?
Some will sell fast for so many reasons, others will take very long to find someone to fall in love with it.--- people have a lot of choice and are not rushed to buy.
Market fundamentals govern price and urgency, S&D is the major one .... PT mentioned 45000 + 7000 pa housing deficit in Auckland ...but he only uses these numbers to his own advantage to slam National, he didn't say how he was going to solve a fracture of that deficit, and very little people in the industry think that he actually Can! ... that is another major fundamental!
High prices are big barriers, but do not expect a collapse in pricing because "SOME" people cannot afford buying houses - these are only about 20-25% of buyers nowadays and they will find the corresponding % of sellers somehow as they save and grow or some prices will drop at the lower end ......and that is it
People advocating that mansions, quality expensive houses, and new builds will fall by 20% because it takes too long to sell or no one can afford a price/income ratio of 11 - 12 Or, low clearance rate at auctions, are dead wrong and cannot see beyond the tip of their own nose ----- every decile has its buyers and owners. Some are keen to sell and move on, others are not in a hurry and certainly won't sell in a subdued market.
People with equity and on good income can and will always upgrade to better newer homes, immigrants do the same ..etc and life goes on just like it did in the previous cycle and the one before that.
A major roadblock that has thrown the spanner in the wheels is this CoL and its unpredictable uncalculated behaviour and planning ... they are the major risk factor for taking any important financial decision today -----
Only heavens know how much old and new taxes will NZers endure in the coming years to finance the mess this Gov will make until gone - let alone all the " Unintended Consequences" and the cost that everyone will incur because someone has a dream or an idea !!
Uncertainty is the worse enemy of stability and the housing market is not immune from that as it is the backbone of most SME businesses which employ a lot of people and pay a lot of tax.
Do not be fooled with some folks using secondary school economics or applying the same measures in both stable/regular and unstable markets like the one we have right now ( affected by both internal and international factors).
Homes are Not Shares, Bonds, or Commodities and will never be traded in the same way or follow the same technical analysis ( Unless done by fools).
If you need a home and find a nice one you like on a piece of free hold dirt that is within you budget, then buy it today ... it will look cheap in few years. and forget about leading indicators.
Wrong!, -- we don't have an oversupply of houses to cover Demand ... we have more than usual houses offered for sale and less than usual buyer numbers because of price and trust and uncertainty .... they could well be more in the wrong deciles or affordability range ...Why do we have 45,000 shortage then??
The fact that prices are holding firm thus far (and rising) speaks volumes about market resilience and the failure of all other assumptions and theories, including yours above.
As I said 1+1+1 does not equal 3 in this market ... But if you are still in doubt , then wait ,observe, and learn ...
If this Gov was to change tomorrow, you will immediately see a different housing market dynamics and huge surge in activity, even at these elevated prices ...
Again, some like to think that FHBs have a great leverage on the market, actually their effect is limited to their size .... and it is minimal
last point, about 40% of buyers who are able and cashed investors have stopped investing in this market lately because of the CoL uncertainty and other restrictions --- these should have weighted heavily on price with all the stock and volume indicators and the withdrawal of most foreign money .. But they still didn't ... so go figure. What would it take to bring this giant market price down?
In effect and facts on the ground, NO ... if we want to play with words then enjoy your time doing that ... where is the effect of that oversupply? -- it should have reflected on price after 6 months of low volume sales and mounting inventories, right? -- Well it didn't so far and the opposite is actually taking place ... prices are rising albeit very gently.
some will say, but wait, it takes years for that crack to break the wall and wait Winter is coming and wait Landlords will be chased out of the market so surely there will be cheap houses for everyone....! ... Great, then for those who believe in that theory can wait and see - or ask the people who missed the boat in similar situation in 2011, and 2002 ,,etc.
It's up to you to resolve which logic is viable, But history is a great teacher.
Don't expect a drop anywhere outside of Auckland, as everywhere else the price is set by cost of build (about 500k to build a 200m² house. That sets a price bar at about $6-700k for the whole country with cheap land available.
The only thing that could impact that is a massive intervention in the building materials market to break the cartels. If govt were smart (Ha!!) they would be addressing that and eradicating regulatory fees to bring down house prices. In reality they do not want prices to fall - it's electoral suicide.
They will drop, as most of the increase is down to what happened in Auckland (maybe just about all). If the move starts to look too much less lucrative or Auckland house prices become even a bit more attainable, the exodus will stop. I think people instinctively know that if prices drop in the regions they will stay dropped for a longer time than they will in Auckland if ever that starts moving again.
I don’t see how you can claim you’re performing such a noble service when on another thread you freely admit to flouting the law. What else aren’t you doing that you’re supposed to? There’s strong reasons tenancy laws are in place and it’s not up to the likes of you to decide which ones do and which ones don’t apply.
“Helping people get a start” yeah sure by denying them the legal processes and protections they’re entitled to.
rmnz, well said! Landlords that indulge in such practices cannot be trusted to do the right thing with their tenants money. Avoiding tenancy services in a desperate ploy to offset their overly excessive leveraged predicaments. It comes across as a pure and simple "all hands to the pumps" operation that tenants would be wise to give a wide berth.
Just to remind everyone, Houseworks admitted to 'forgetting' to lodge bonds in another recent thread. That's like 'forgetting' to pay taxes, and is a clear violation of the law (https://www.apia.org.nz/apia-blog/failure-to-lodge-bond-is-no-joke/). Houseworks, your hypocrisy stinks to high heaven, and you will be penalised for it sooner or later. Your behaviour is also part of the reason why landlords are despised in some sections of society, so think of it this way: you are letting the team down.
Its quite abhorrent that you're making light of this. You've previously espoused yourself as a landlord of integrity and professionalism and yet that's clearly not true. If you've ever criticised tenants for not following the rules then you need to take a long hard look in the mirror.
I've always got time for calling out people who break the law and shirk their responsibilities to others, especially those who have the temerity to suggest they're "helping" others.
Houseworks, as the saying goes "You have been weighed, you have been measured, and you have been found wanting"
I am a fit 52 year old who is comfortable with life. Hardly "bitter old fool" material - lol :) Now, guess what. I did not break or deliberately set out to break any laws to get to where I am today!
I will be dead, and NZers will be feeling the pain. Its not the type of NZ I want. That's hardly bitter. I want NZ to be a community based country like it use to be where neighbours would come over with coffee and scones. Not the narcissistic look at me country that its turning into.
No surprises here, as what I expected and predicted. Without any significant changes to immigration and world events its business as usual. What has become clearer is that desirable suburbs continue to see gains, Coastal North Shore still climbing on already high values. Unfortunately the separation of the haves and have nots continues. Do I see problems on the horizon ? you bet with Trump trying to run the USA. If there is to be a crash I see the USA starting it again.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.