The weather may have been hot in January but the property market cooled in Auckland, Waikato, Wellington, Canterbury and Otago, according to property website Realestate.co.nz.
The average asking price of homes listed for sale on Realestate.co.nz either fell or remained stable in all five regions, while total housing stock (the number of homes listed for sale on Realestate.co.nz) was up in all five regions in January compared to January 2017.
In Auckland the market almost felt a touch of frost, with the average asking price declining for the second month in a row from its November 2017 peak of $982,236, to $914,649 in January. That means it is now below where it was in January 2017, when it was $922,454.
But while prices were weaker in many regions, the total number of homes available for sale on Realestate.co.nz in January was up 7% compared to January 2017. In Auckland total stock for sale was up a whopping 20.4% compared to a year earlier.
Again, it was Auckland, Waikato, Wellington, Canterbury and Otago that led the way with substantial increases in the volume of housing stock for sale, with smaller increases in Coromandel and Nelson/Bays (see chart below).
The less frenetic markets in the main centres meant buyers could take their time when making a purchase, Realesate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Taylor said.
"They can take more time to consider all options, such as whether to sell, buy or renovate, with less competitive pressure to purchase immediately.
"Buyers have more time to view all the options and negotiate without the pressure of a hot market," she said.
However in most other regions it's a different story, with most provincial centres continuing to swelter in a property heatwave.
Average asking prices were up and total stock for sale was down in Northland, Central North Island, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa and Marlborough.
"It's interesting that most of these regions are known holiday destination, and it could well be that sellers in these locations are taking advantage of the visitor season and a seller's market," Taylor said.
However it appears Aucklanders' love affair with housing in the Bay of Plenty may be starting to wane.
Realestate.co.nz data shows that the number of Aucklanders looking at listings in the Bay of Plenty in the month of January has declined in each of the last three years.
93 Comments
That would appear to be the case from looking at this graph:
Barfoot & Thompson Average Sale Price
Are you saying house prices don't usually drop over the late December/January period? The graph shows a clear drop in actual sales prices for Auckland every year over this period. I guess it is illustrative only but it's hardly useless. Why such a strong reaction?
This one then?
Zachary, what we know is that there's a steady increase in unsold inventory in recent months - in the main centres. Barfoots also recently reported a steady increase in the vendor dropout rate. A graph that shows month on month (asking prices) would give a clearer picture as to whether its a Dec-Jan annual occurrence or reinforces a weakening of vendor price expectations heading into winter. Notice post Jan 2008, lower sales prices persisted for months afterwards. No doubt at the time vendors began to accept their houses would be worth less tomorrow.
This data is about asking price, not average price. The same did not happen last year to the same degree, using the same dataset. January 2018, Auckland sees a 20% rise in stock, a 4% fall in asking price. January 2017, Auckland say a 5.5% rise in stock, a 0.7% fall in asking price.
https://www.realestate.co.nz/blog/news/nz-property-report-january-2017
The asking price today is essentially the same as a year ago, so it has fallen in real terms. Not an encouraging release.
Edit: I think my stock comparison isn't right actually - comparing new listings stats vs total stock stats - ignore that. Can't find the new release on realestate.co.nz to do a direct comparison so was basing on the data in the article for January 2018. Asking price comparison should be valid.
I suggest from Zachary's comments he is likely to be a hopeful Auckland property owner.
If he is a $1mplus home owner there isn't too much to worry about as he will always be selling and buying on the same market.
If he is a rental property investor (especially one who is relatively new to the market) he should be a little worried.
I suspect that the reduced asking price - and an increase in listing - is probably due to investors exiting the market unhappy with a gross 4 percent yield and hence driving the prices down and listings up. If this is the case and I was looking at exiting the market, I would be doing it sooner rather than later.
I suggest from Zachary's comments he is likely to be a hopeful Auckland property owner.
If he is a $1mplus home owner there isn't too much to worry about as he will always be selling and buying on the same market.
If he is a rental property investor (especially one who is relatively new to the market) he should be a little worried.
I suspect that the reduced asking price - and an increase in listing - is probably due to investors exiting the market unhappy with a gross 4 percent yield and hence driving the prices down and listings up. If this is the case and I was looking at exiting the market, I would be doing it sooner rather than later.
Not for a while - spent the last month trying to get something in Taupo for my work - same issues ended up paying full asking price and quick settlement to secure a deceased estate where family just wanted the money out quickly - I Think the demand in the regions is disproportionately higher when measured against housing stock available - with lots of people still relocating to the smaller towns - growth in their industries - particularly tourism becoming an all year round boom - as well as normal population growth -
The supply and demand ratio still very much in favour of further increases - and unlike Tauranga, and Auckland - still plenty of borrowing power available to buyers in terms of their ability to service mortgages at current prices
As for prices firming in Auckland - 20% increase in stock for sale is a lot of extra options - herd mentality at play could see current softening lasting most of the year and even some 10% falls - before eventually firming but i wold not bet on it - and thats probably the crux of the matter - would investors - not FHB"s fr whom if you can afford it at 2% more then do it applies- buy in auckland at the moment - i fthe answer is yes or maybe - then market will firm - if the answer is NAH - market will drop
I certain wold not buy yet in Auckland unless essential for business purposes- not from and investment perspective - yields still very poor compared to the regions / commercial / shares - and hard to see any capital gains in the next three years -
What interests me is how susceptible the regions are to price drop during a down turn. Its all very well when times are good, but its when times are not so great and employment not so plentiful how will these regions fear when compared to places such as Auckland.....?
What interests me is how susceptible the regions are to price drop during a down turn. Its all very well when times are good, but its when times are not so great and employment not so plentiful how will these regions fear when compared to places such as Auckland.....?
Demographics...the oldies cashing up to move the regions....in a few years they will be cashing up for Rymans. Job growth in the regions based on servicing old people. What sort of sustinable model is that?
The regions have been in decline for good reason...bumping them up with old people and care workers is a blip, not a remedy.
Yes plenty of heat in parts of the Bay market especially at higher end properties. Some selling 20 to 30% over what they were sold for 12-24 months ago. There are people putting in high offers with no conditions i.e. builders report etc on 100 plus yr old properties. Seem to be overseas or cashed up Aucklanders or locals that have sold to the same. Good luck to them!!!
I moved here in 2009 from Auckland when the Auckland market had gone flat/backwards following the GFC, the Bay hadn't heard of the GFC and everyone were hanging on for the over inflated priced they paid between 2006-2008. Through 2010-2013 many houses were selling for less than they were sold in the last boom. I would say there is a 12-24 month lag.
RPH that's a huge call and I would never make a recommendation like that. My view is it depends on how much you need a house now i.e. need place close to schools for kids, stable for them etc. My preference was always to rent and rent my properties to others (could always move in if i needed to) that changed when I had children!
The signs are out there that the NZ market has peaked (well in main centers) and no doubt the rest will follow......just when.....like when the market took on in 2012-2014. It only kicked in here late 2014 then through 2015..........Look at Oz and whats going on over there ore read the January ANZ Property Focus. Although the stats show less housing stock, from looking at property websites (and i do look at often) the numbers for sale in different suburbs seem to be increasing from the low of last year. Time will tell if this lasts or if this is the Jan flood due to not many properties listing in December due to holidays.
Ha ha, like i said, depends how much you need your own home or do you hold out. My gut is you will see some pockets of even higher prices due to being "special houses" i.e. views, locations, schools zones etc with demand for them and people desperate and missed at tender too many times. However this will have been built up in the past and not based on today of the future. It only takes a handful of similar properties to come to market in a suburb or not sell to take away the desperation and give people options again and will decrease multiple offers and take pressure off........and makes vendors feel differently as competition again. If they have to sell they will sell and meet the market. My gut is to wait and see what pans out over the next few months.
Look at napiers population age through most of the suburbs.....many older and will keep heading to smaller places or villages. If they move here from out of town to retire, over pay then need to go to a village they might be in trouble........time will tell.
I can't say whether I'd recommend buying in Hawkes Bay now or not, but as someone who bought here a year ago I can say that I am generally happy here. At times I miss Auckland (friends, favourite ethnic eateries and choice of places to go and things to do) but then when I factor in the traffic and how Auckland has got so much busier over the last several years that I have to ask myself what I really want in life. Auckland and Hawkes Bay each have their respective advantages.
My personal feeling is that Napier property prices are unlikely to keep increasing at the rate they have been increasing but then I don't think they will fall. I closely follow what is happening in Parklands and Te Awa Estates (the two areas where most of the new builds are) and prices continue to go up by about $10K/month - and properties sell fast, especially in Parklands. Given that new section prices have shot up in these two areas in the last couple of years from 150 / 160K to 230 - 250K, that is underpinning a good chunk of the price increases. Good luck whatever you decide to do!
Stock up 14% YoY in Wellington. Funny how the MS media always reports dramatic headlines on housing shortages but seem unable to report on rising stock.
Wellington rental market looks to have a lot of stock too, I would have thought it would be coming down by now as students start term, but it still looks high to me. Where can I find data on rental market stock btw?
I recently sold a Wgtn property and sold for 5% above expectations in multi-offer situation. Have looked to purchase a replacement property in Wgtn and have not been within cooee at tender close.
I look at how well cr*p properties are selling, and have noted all the Evans Bay leaky buildings have been cleaned up over the last 3 weeks. On ground market was flat late 2017, now appears to be surging and possibly will hitch up another 10%. This is the telltale sign I have seen over the years as always active in market, cr*p properties get cleaned up and then a sudden surge in price.
Listed Nov, had conditional offer on buyer selling their house mid Dec (tender only one offer). Then mid Jan let conditional buyer know would not renew their conditional contract. The Dec contract expired on a Friday, and went into multi-offer and accepted higher price 5 days later. Settled yesterday. Was unusual as went from flat to suddenly lots of buyers.
At last someone asking intelligent questions about Wellington rental market.
I have just written this comment about it.
The media has caught up on comments by Trademe about Wellington rentals being in short supply. The situation in Wellington is nothing extraordinary compared with Nelson. Just look at these figures.
Jan 16 Jan17 Jan18 Feb18
Wellington 1612 1167 817 1015
Nelson/ Tasman 151 102 77 113
Of course greater Wellington has a population 5 times greater than Nelson. So on a per head of population basis they have double the number of vacancies compared with Nelson.
moneyphobe,
If you only possess cryptocurrencies,how do you live day by day? With what do you pay your regular outgoings like the power bill? How do you pay for groceries etc?
Much of my income from from the stockmarket,but greed is not what motivates me. I invest for sustainable and growing dividends,not for short-term gains,so where is greed in that equation? All the investors I know,take a similar view.
moneyphobe,
If you only possess cryptocurrencies,how do you live day by day? With what do you pay your regular outgoings like the power bill? How do you pay for groceries etc?
Much of my income from from the stockmarket,but greed is not what motivates me. I invest for sustainable and growing dividends,not for short-term gains,so where is greed in that equation? All the investors I know,take a similar view.
moneyphobe,
If you only possess cryptocurrencies,how do you live day by day? With what do you pay your regular outgoings like the power bill? How do you pay for groceries etc?
Much of my income from from the stockmarket,but greed is not what motivates me. I invest for sustainable and growing dividends,not for short-term gains,so where is greed in that equation? All the investors I know,take a similar view.
This asking sale price indicator is a fluid number depending on number of properties offered in that month and number of sales by auction ( which would be excluded from the average Asking prices and eventually unknown) ... so the whole thing could mean anything in any given month depending on two variable numbers !!
Better indicator is actual sale prices for the month produced by REINZ, Harcourts or B&T ...
According to my sources on the ground in Auckland prices are steady and actual sales numbers achieved last month are not bad...The description was: a Typical January and long holidays.
food for thought: -- Number of houses offered in Auckland was up by 20% .... still having almost 50% clearance rates in auctions and prices haven't dropped yet !! .... and July 2017 is still the bottom !! ...Supply is shrinking, plenty of contractors and tradies looking for work, Organic Demand is growing by the minute ...!!
for once I partially agree with you, sale prices are more accurate, however if asking prices are lower that would indicate that sales prices would also be lower.
Where I disagree is "Organic Demand is growing by the minute" . With inventories rising constantly over the last 10 months or so, there is plenty of supply (6 months worth of inventory was recently reported) then real demand has clearly diminished.
Talking only about Auckland of course
Hi, ...
Sure, but rising inventories are not selling ... Average sales numbers achieved have been down or almost the same ( depends on the area) and I am sure these excessive numbers offered for sale now will be withdrawn come April/May, just like they suddenly appeared in Nov / Dec 2017
We were told that the country needs 15000 new homes annually to keep up with demand, we are 40,000 short currently and adding just about 10,000 - 12000 a year to inventory ...so we are in continuous deficit....waiting for the mass building projects !!
We are experiencing a period of higher inventory to sell yet no serious reduction in pricing .. It seems that most sellers are not so desperate to sell and are holding to their asking prices especially to values close to recent QV figures, which , as I said before, it cemented the new market values. It also seems like there are enough buyers who are willing to meet these asking prices and supporting the market ... and that is another indication of healthy demand.
Time will tell,
I think the concept that there is a shortfall of houses so prices will continue to rise is a bit of a stretch. If that was so then rentals would have gone up as much as house prices. What has happened is that rentals increased and therefore people found alternative housing options (stay at home longer, more people to a flat etc). However, the extent to which house price increases have exceeded rental increases shows that there has been a significant speculative purchases - effectively people paying more than a property is worth on the belief it will go up in price further. What we are seeing is room for declines in prices to reflect the speculative premium people put on prices. I am unsure when the bottom of the market will be - put pretty sure it is not July 2017.
Agree with the history side and speculative buying - and that is normal when property becomes a safer investment in every cycle ( and that happens all around the world at the same time) ... History also taught us that rents lag behind property price increase, and with a much smaller rate of increase ...I saw that few times, however just like houses, rents only increase up to a reasonable level of affordability.
In 1999 a nice new large 4 bdrm 2 bath B&T house would rent for $400 -420 max pw ( in good areas like NthShore Howick etc)...today the same house rents for $650 - 700 max a bit more if it was a mansion or rented by the room.... while the property value has gone from $400-600K to $1400 - 1600K today ...
Speculative buyer will be burned if they sell too soon and their properties will fall in price, most of these are old and rental type smaller units ( not brand new or mansions) purchased in a range of 600 - 900K by CG chasers - these properties have already depreciated some 15% already and there is room for more .. they were overpriced for starters and now coming down to their real worth ...problem is no one wants these now :) because they are junk...
I think July was the bottom and prices will smoothly appreciate going forward ....could be wrong ... but so far that prediction is standing
Actually history hasn't taught us that rentals lag behind prices - and the opposite is happening in Wellington in the moment. And what I suspect you will see in Auckland is that rentals increase but house prices fall because
the two elements have been disconnected for a couple of years.
Please do not mix stable market conditions and smooth S&D with what is happening now .... I don't know much about Wellington , but the sharp rise in rents is due to shortage and seasonal student accomodation doesn't help either..-- we don't have that in Auckland, yet ! but the rate of rise in rents usually lags behind a sizable jump in property prices by at least a year ...
I hope you saw and read this today ...https://www.interest.co.nz/property/91900/new-dwelling-consents-down-au…
We are behind in Auckland housing stock supply , we can't expect prices to fall especially when new Units costs more than similar existing stock - the demand is there and increase despite the piling up of inventory for sale.
Prices move in either direction when buyers and sellers on average disagree on market value ..then prices settle somewhere in between - either up or down .. in general the accumulation on the demand side is outnumbering the supply on offer. Obviously this is more visible in the 1M+ properties as we are building less of these now !!
So far we did not drop a cent since July 2017 in Auckland and I am not expecting a fall this year, Actually my call would be a normal annual increase of 2-5% in 2018 ( Dec 17- Dec 18)
Again, I could be wrong or something drastic may happen to disturb the market.... Time will tell.
We keep getting told we need all these extra houses and that we are getting further and further behind and in spite of this Auckland prices are flat to regressing with a growing inventory
For sale prices the only supply & demand that counts is actual buyers for inventory on offer, and that demand is soft at best at the moment.
Maybe all these properties will disappear from the market and reduce the supply for sale but maybe the inventory will grow. Why would people put a property up for sale in a soft market unless the really wanted to sell???
There is also a huge amount of building going on across Auckland at the moment and I expect that these will flood onto the market over the next year or two.
As you say time will tell.....
There is a lot new built already on the market At new prices from 700K onwards for townhouses and smaller units - Not sure why these are still hanging around ...
maybe buyers in this quartile don't like to live in South Auckland !! there are thousand on TradeMe under 700K in Auckland !!
For sale prices the only supply & demand that counts is actually number of serious buyers and sellers regardless of how crowded auction rooms and the market is .... Inventory can go up or down - but Real Urgency in both Buying and selling seem to have been subdued ...hence everyone is taking his time and properties keep accumulating and take longer and longer to sell ... we certainly live in abnormal market conditions with a lot of question marks lingering on the Horizon ...
yes its like one abnormality followed by an equal and opposite abnormality
we had all this offshore money fueling crazy prices followed by a complete dry up of that money and left with a population that wont pay those prices especially for the junk you mentioned above.
I believe there are a lot of stunned mullet vendors wondering what the hell is going on and they will slowly have to adjust to the new reality. they paid too much for that junk!!!!
It will be interesting to see how hard sellers hit the market in March. Given the tax and regulatory changes coming, I foresee a rush of part time landlords trying to exit the market. The smart ones will cash out, the silly ones will hold the line only to be thrust into a weaker market being rocked by higher interest rates.
Bayley's Eastern Suburbs sales report – Orakei to Stonefields – Dec 2017:
Dec 2016 Dec 2017
# of houses sold 65 68
Average price $1.50M $1.32M
That's a 12% drop in value on similar volumes! Will be interesting to see if it's an odd month or if the value drop is sustained in January and onwards
11 mill yep sounds like your regular neighbourhood in NZ and the rest of the World.
https://www.prestigeproperty.co.uk/15-bed-french-chateau-loches-indre-e…
Cash in that 11 mill property eat some cheese and drink some nice wine while living off the 8 mill you have left in your chateau. Rent out some bedrooms for extra cash if you want.
Average house price in London is £600,926. Londons not a very big city and not many people live there, it doesnt have a financial centre where people earn milllions, and it certainly a long way away from other countries. Unlike NZ which is on the doorstep to fiji the mega country.
http://www.theweek.co.uk/house-prices/61987/london-house-prices-fears-o…
If london house prices can drop then so can NZ's especially at the prices which are unaffordable for your average punter.
Shopping Market cools...America gonna be great again.....if they keep trying to stem......Corporate greed.
https://www.aol.com/article/finance/2018/01/31/sears-lays-off-220-emplo…
Gordon, pleased that you are missing “The Man’s” helpful advice.
Had a few things to do on rentals and my wife had a final property check prior to new tenant moving in.
Being a professional landlord is not just sitting on your butt all day, there are many days whe we need to do some work.
We have had to rerent several properties over the past few weeks, or I should,say my wife has and this is generally our busiest time, as we make most of our rentals expire in January.
Haven’t found the rental market far better this year than last and rents have held,up extremely well.
Reality is that if people are still paying the rents asked for good quality properties, and all of ours are just that.
Gordon, hope you have had a lovely productive day?
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