It has been a funny old week around the main Auckland apartment auctions.
There was no auction at City Sales' rooms this week, although they have a full offering next week.
Down at Barfoot & Thompson's rooms, two properties were scheduled for their regular Thursday apartment auction, but one was withdrawn prior to the event and the other had its auction postponed just as bidding was due to get underway, so there was no action there.
Up at Ray White City Apartments five properties were up for auction this week and a good crowd turned out for the event.
One of the most notable features of the crowd was that there were very few ethnic Chinese faces among the potential bidders.
So Chinese buyers were notable by their absence, and word is that the increasing difficulty of getting money out of China is to blame.
But all of the properties on offer attracted bids and bidding was quite competitive on four of them, but by the end of the auction two had sold under the hammer and three were passed in for sale by negotiation.
The selling prices achieved on individual properties and details of those that didn't sell are available on our Auction Results page.
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88 Comments
Depends on how you weigh up the figures, you need to look at what's happening since January this year not over looking back and weighing the over all price increases over the last 12 months, if you want to get a more realistic picture.
See it's not just us who have recognized that free capital tap from China has been switched off. Even those in Toronto are now scrambling to cash up and get out of the market before it crashes.
Toronto Homeowners Scramble To Cash Out In April, New Listings Soar 33%
https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/toronto-homeowners-scramble-cas…
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/china-canada-homebuyers-1.4012959
Chinese buy predominantly for Education in Canadian cities
Same would apply in NZ
Been happening for years here's a 2012 article
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/real-estate-rules-don-t-discriminate-agai…
I'm predicting the Auckland house prices to drop as much as 60% within the next year and back to GFC 2008 level within 5 years. Let's hope the FHB's who have been struggling to own their own homes are now able to turn the table and those who have fled the city will come back to their home city.
I don't know why first home buyers have bothered looking for property at all in Ak in recent times. In my view it would take price drops of about 50% before it would be worth buying in Ak given the extremely long term nature of the debt when we may be on the cusp of significant mortgage rate increases.
I beg to differ. Auckland house prices will only go up, though this is a temporary blip. my predictions are as follows:
2018 - average price - $1.255 million
2019 - average price - $1.513 million
2020 - average price - $2.012 million
2025 - average price - $3.181 million
2050 - average price - $20.182 million
Double-GZ I think you need to look at your maths? A 60% drop from current prices is not that same as a 60% increase from lower prices, e.g;
- a 60% drop from $1m median takes you to $400k median which is below 2008 levels
- vs a 60% increase in median price from $400k takes you to a $640k (not the same $ change)
What do you think Auckland's median price will be in a year?
I'd say you're not really predicting at all. You're just saying it to get a reaction, which is quite common in social media and online comments. Most forecasters with the chops to make forecasts don't usually make these kind of comments. I will "speculate" that if your scenario were to eventuate, house prices would just be one of your concerns. There is every likelihood that the economy would be decimated in such a scenario.
I will return to Auckland when house prices collapse to pre-2010 levels and the travel times and road congestion returns to at least the 2012 levels. I have already made my bed in the rural town backwaters and living mortgage free with a lifestyle that only the new "working poor middle income earners" of Auckland could ever dream about. My daughter and her partner are working towards escaping Auckland within the next 18 months too and are heading for the regions to buy. Both are aged 20-21, and one is graduating from Auckland Uni this year and the other is graduating as a fully qualified builder. The regions need these young people, but it is sad that my Middle Class family have become a part of the "Auckland Housing Refugees" crisis. Oh and when I say "Rural Town Backwaters", on a comparison to Auckland, I live no more than a 10 minute drive through peak hour traffic to get to work, see a movie, visit a friend in hospital. Only a population of about 100k and every destination is only 15 minutes away by car.
Of course its Chinese money or lack of to blame, of course ethnic Chinese do not live in New Zealand and do not buy houses, of course the Chinese are to blame . When I went to the auction I only saw plump, bespectacled bald men . I believe they were Russian. They looked like mafia carrying large suitcases. They talked another language, it may have been Russian or Scottish . I believe the money in the suitcases had been laundered, it looked clean. I tried to do a ethnic survey of the auction and started counting the number of bald bespectacled plump sinister types ,there were many but as I started counting the other ethnic groups, I believe there were many Argentinians , as they looked like Argentinians I was stopped by a male with the initials DGZ, I believe he was ethnic North Korean He said surveys were not allowed. So I stopped, but I now believe Russians and North Koreans will buy Auckland property because I stood on a rouble as I was led outside.
I know in China kiwis can buy any type of home they wish even farmland
I know of one kiwi who bought an entire group of Chinese dairy farms because the Chinese owner went broke
You can see the dilemma
One country appreciates keeping its land its own
With a 7 billion plus world pop you would think NZs govt would want to protect its lands from outsiders
Alas no
A simple bribe is all it takes
That is too xenophobic for words...So I will use sign language.
That a National Treasure is unable to State Clearly what is in their minds eye, it is imperative we view for them.
When looking at Auctions, particularly in Awkland, it is hard to justify, the people that one observes, be it taking ones coffee black or white.
When ones bread comes into the picture, it can be taken for granted that anyone would snap off the hand that feeds, whether this be brown, white or toasted a darker shade of grain or even a mixture of cereals as is now the fashion.
We have imported many such choices into our Country and depending on where ones bread is buttered, is a matter of taste.
Some like it seasoned, homegrown and spread around, some like it with a National identity, something to chew over, if one needs glasses. as many do to see the blind spot, some people miss.
Having ones cake and eating it is off course another story, often accompanied by other ethnic choices, some like it marginally better than others, depends on the layers involved.
Some chicks lay better than others, some prefer the crest of mountains for their sheer naked beauty.
I cannot complain, I like my cake and have an appetite second to none. Though time is of the essence, when aging...disgracefully.
Myself I can see the future quite clearly, as can Stephen Hawking, he is sold on the idea we must move mountains to leave the earth as we are not really welcome here anymore...and that includes all of us..
We have hit the peak, so cover ones eyes and do not buy any houses, as there is a possibility, relatively, some will never inherit. We may have to view the moon even closer as a place to view the sunset.
Mars bars most people, as far nearsightedness is not always in the National Interest. Some people do not know the difference. Either chocolate or pale. They cannot tell the bleedin difference, just what will pan out.
No creed is safe...Even a bunny may have to hop it....Depends what the future markets dictate.
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/05/03/stephen-hawking-humans-need…
Uninterested..I think you are...
I do not think the moon is assending anymore, may be too dark to see...anyway.
The simple fact is it got your attention,
We have a limited time on this earth, but all we talk about is houses and the smog ridden countries are the problem, not the solution. I have seen them, they are not pretty, the moon is seen better in NZ, as no real pollution, in the air, just the Groundswell ain't what it used to be...and the imported stupidity, does not help matters.
Even importing Saharan crap to get more crap from cows is ridiculous. Plus it is illegal...or damn well should be. I don't dig it, neither should they.
We need to immediately reverse mankind and ensure we can live in this universe, not the next.
2040 to NON-Pollute waters is folly, by golly.
It is a buy product of getting more crap from cows, no matter how they dissemble and lie. It is not in our National Interest, the Outfloes are murky as it is.
Pollution is growing, not aided by Houses, cars, and a whole lot more besides. And Governments.
Mamon is the problem.
Ruining the World for the sake of it, is an even greater problem.
A bit rich coming from me..as I ain't poor.
.A junk used to be a boat...a sail boat, now it is sale crap.
A lot could be done to improve this lot...Our lot...but the trend is more crap, more problems.
Nationally. And Globally. This lot in charge, hurry up and wait. It will not fix anything....
Urgency is what is required. All things could be done under Urgency. Then maybe our relatives of all creeds and kinds..could inherit our Fair Lands, not a shite hole they are now are or becoming.
By the way, 11th May...next Full Moon...get yer binoculars out...Pretty as a picture.
Hope that clears the air.
How do you know they were absent? Is this based on their sir names or what they look like? What a terribly racist and xenophobic conclusion. These people attending may have lived in China all their lives and have Chinese partners and children that you didn't see. This is the sort of anecdotal non scientific nonsense that we must do away with.
I must be racist and xenophobic, not sure how but by your definition then I am. But when I look up Xenophobic Im not, weird.
The reason I must be Xenophobic, is I look at people and guess where they come from, I do it all the time. Im a Maori so when I see NZers or even non NZers and they look a little brown and have features like a Maori, I have a guess if they are Maori, same with Pacific Islanders I try to see if they are Pacific Islanders or Maori. But the thing is I like people, Im a Maori and I have Pacific Island Uncles and Aunties so I cant see where Im Xenophobic for trying to guess their race. No where in the definition does it say I am Racist, how can I be superior to myself. I also do it with other nations, are they swedish, spainish or Italian. Not for any reason but to guess where they come from as I lived in the UK and travelled. My wife is Welsh, I try to guess if people are English, Scottish, Irish or Welsh. It happens all the time with Australians and NZers in the UK.
Your right it is anecdotal and unscientific, but most things in life are. You can create falseness even with scientific data, the author of scientific data may be bias, and manipulate the facts to suit their argument. Its up to the reader to discern whether they believe the argument.
Xenophobic - having or showing a dislike of or prejudice against people from other countries.
Racist - A person who shows or feels discrimination or prejudice against people of other races, or who believes that a particular race is superior to another.
Xenophobia is the irrational fear of foreigners and the accusation is being used to silence criticism of immigration and is part of what I see as an orchestrated campaign. There is no research to indicate that the high levels of low quality immigration we have are of any benefit to us whatsoever yet we are being bombarded with propaganda that this is somehow a good thing. The NZ initiative and various so called think tanks and thick tanks (NZ Herald) are all peddling this line and if you don't like it you're a nasty racist or Xenophobic nut-job. Am I the only one that finds this level and direction of blatant propaganda very creepy?
BTW if you want to read a majestic dismissal of this insulting campaign here's a beauty from Michael Riddell :
https://croakingcassandra.com/2017/05/03/a-world-leading-debate-on-immi…
The authors intent is to drive users to interest.co.nz's auction result page. Here's a link to pictures of sheep instead https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=sheep&rlz=1C9BKJA_enNZ686NZ687&hl=en-…
Lay off our Alter Ego, he(or she) is an icon around here. And in the absence of Cowboy and GBH is about the only one keeping it interesting. Although I am still chuckling about the Russian or Scottish thing. About the only one that makes consistence sense around here as well.
Thanks Scarfie, It is nice to have someone in our neck of the ...woulds.
Yeah, lay off me you Other Guys, or I shall ............Cry.
The Ladies are welcome to read anything into what I say.....It is in their best interests, I even bovver.
I like a good bitch now and again, I married a rather nice one...But I only work in her best Interests...Sorry.
Sorry Ladies...Weep...you should, as you cannot match an average man like me...in wages, normally, so I feel for you all. (Except if you become a Government Lackey or use yer brain..or yer body).
Interestingly enough, if we did not have any interest, inflation would be Nowt.
Interestingly if we did not import more growth, babies and the like, we would not have anything to gripe over.
If you do not have Free Borrowings and Free Money, and a Little interest, which soon becomes a lot, Growth would never happen.
I did not invent this fraud, I only grew up with it....I only record my dis-pleasure at those who screw the system.
Some even make a lot of money, screwing others ...as Skimming a little, soon becomes a lot.
Plus advertising it pays. Biggest growth market....Interestingly enuff...Big Business.
Ho Hum...
Compounding Interest, compounding problems, Importing stupidity, compounds our mess. Governments excel at it.
So do bleedin Banks...
Over and out.
A wee anecdote: someone I know recently withdrew their central Auckland house from the market after several months of very little interest. Perfectly good weatherboard house on a freehold section. This person planned to use the proceeds to move out of Auckland but those plans have now been delayed. Begs the question how many others are doing the same and what exactly are they waiting for to change?
The problem is having seen a house down the street go for insane money in mid 2016 they now expect insane money for their place, even if they could currently sell it for double what they paid for it they are holding off. Could be a very regrettable decision in a year or two.
Cold feet.
In so many areas, you have to make your own decisions based upon your own intelligence and knowledge, not what the guy down the road is doing.
The Herald now publishes stories of people in Ak selling up and moving elsewhere. When that happens, you know the horse has bolted.
Zombie Ponzi
Interesting story you quote
I know it will not be isolated to just the vendors you speak of either
It's hard to accept less now when you've seen more only months earlier
There you have the fickleness of the market driven by emotion not logic
When shacks are selling for CA$2,000,000 in Vancouver you see that humans are like sheep following the trend line. Few of the sheep ponder to consider the trend will change and then the time has passed to offload at extreme profit.
Some of course will bleat on that Auckland prices just keep doubling every 10 years but in my opinion history may record this extreme price expansion in housing as a major aberration
Good article Greg, thanks for pointing out the elephant in room or rather the absents of it. It's outrageous that Foreign Buyers were allowed to plunder our housing market so much and drive up house prices beyond any logical reason other than capital gain.
Completely tax free! Just goes to show that we really need the Foreign Buyers tax to mop up the money launders.
... I wouldn't mind so much if foreign capital was directed to new builds , into increasing the housing stock of our fine country ...
But it beggars belief that our government continues to allow non-residents to buy up unlimited quantities of our existing houses and apartments , pricing us citizens out of our own market ...
... and they get a tax-free ride to boot ... simply staggeringly bizarre ....
Our Government Officially like house prices to rise, it gives them a double dip into Tax Payer funded borrowing systems that pays their way and their way is to keep raising the roof of houses, they own as it also increases their pensions, Non_Taxably. They can keep this up....Forever.
A double whammy, a double dip, never have to actually work....in their life.
Free travel, Free ride, Free flights of fancy, Free Lodgings, Free Loading....bludgers.
Each and every one of em.
Any fool who does not recognise this is called a Voter. They usually have an ulterior motive too. They vote for a free Society, too....Inflationary, though it may be. It gives them a lift and an illusion of wealth...too.
Anyone else who does not recognise this needs glasses.
I prefer a Whiskey Mac in mine.
Hi Double-GZ, your previous comments over the last few months may have indicated that you were pro prices increasing in the DG Zone for various reasons. Your more recent comments would indicate that you have changed your view. I'm interested to understand the changes on your view?
I don't think DGZ can be taken seriously at all however his recent comments illustrate to me how important it is to keep to character and stay on message if you want to retain some respect.
There is nothing stopping DGZ from selling his properties at 60% of current value.
A 60% drop in prices would be great for some rich folk. Hoover up some rentals returning +10% yield and enjoy +100% capital gains in a few years too.
My advice, don't feed the troll.
Apologies DGZ if you have been hacked or are suffering from a medical condition and if it is satire it needs work.
Perhaps DGZ has just woken up and realized what's actually been happening and just how at risk Auckland is with our property market. I do think a -60% is a bit harsh and certainly hope it won't come to that otherwise there's going to be a lot of negative equity around.
A -20% is more realistic, though it's looking as though we're not going to see the Chinese capital tap turned on any time soon according to these recent articles:-
Forbes article: China's Crackdown On Capital Flight Is Claiming Some Of Its First (And Biggest) Victims
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ywang/2017/03/16/chinas-crackdown-on-capit…
Reuters article: China's capital controls to hamper yuan internationalization: Fitch
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-yuan-fitch-idUSKBN17Y0F7
Quote from article:-
The Chinese authorities are unlikely to pursue significant capital account liberalization if it poses risks to domestic financial stability, Fitch said.
"We therefore expect capital controls to be lifted in an asymmetric way over the next couple of years, with restrictions on inflows relaxed steadily and those on outflows mostly kept in place," it said.
Yes and it has taken a lot of courage for people to speak out, in the gateway cities that have been most affected watching their property markets vastly over inflate causing serious damage to their economies. The cities most affected are: Auckland, London, Vancouver, Toronto, Sydney, Melbourne.
We're the only one out of that group that hasn't done anything to tried to protect our economy and now were starting to see the results of what happens when that capital tap is turned off.
Thankfully there are some vocal people out there who have to the guts to say something and shame their Governments in to action.
Ex-Wall Street trader predicts Vancouver housing market implosion: http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/899968067635
I have learnt to be wary of anything a hedgefund trader has to say... especially a short seller... even if he calls himself .."ex'.
Maybe u know this guy... ???
My guess is he has a heavy short position and is trying to talk the mkt down... Thats what they do.
Often they "preach the gospel"... just as they are about to liquidate their positions..
@ NothernLights; Yes I would agree with you, though the US is a much richer economy having wealth investment pour in from all over the world, allowing it to build strong infrastructures. It becomes very damaging for economies when property investment is poured in far too rapidly, then it just turns in to asset stripping from the local population.
We just need to see how long this will take for our property market to bottom out. Logic dictates that the properties that have inflated very rapidly over the last 5 to 7 years will be hit the most and that's likely to be Auckland's supposedly wealthy areas. Question is who is going to be able to afford those multi million dollar homes now?
CJ
Yes the US can absorb the Chinese speculation/property banking easier BUT remember that the Japanese
previously bought many NYC landmark properties and then with the collapse of Japanese e con were forced out of many
The point being Americans were concerned by the giant property purchases of the a Japanese
It is not going unnoticed that Chinese nationals are spending up large on US property today either
It just remains to be seen how tolerant the US will remain
We certainly know the NZ govt approves of profligate foreign buyers
Of course it was, and it was just about the only means left to try to demonstrate what was happening, remember Chinese names are still very pure and in truth there is not a lot of them. Chinese nationals have not really married outside their own culture until very recently so the purity of the old names remain. If you see the name Lee it could be Korean or English, if you see the name Li there is a strong chance it is Chinese.
... yesterday's worldwide media was abuzz with the speculation that the Queen's old man Prince Phyllis had died ...
Until he announced that he just looks that way ... and he'd like a little sit down please ... 'cos being 95 going 96 is a tadge tiring on the old ticker ...
... never trust the wiseguys in the mainstream media for the facts .... never ever Trevor !
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