By Greg Ninness
It could be the end of capital gains for the housing market with average dwelling values plateauing in April, according to Quotable Value (QV).
The average value of all homes throughout the country was $631,147 in April, down slightly from the record $631,432 set in March.
Since January, QV's national average dwelling value has stayed within an extremely tight range of just a few hundred dollars, ranging from $631,147 to $631,432, suggesting values have peaked.
QV said quarterly growth in residential property values was zero over the last three months.
"Nationwide quarterly value growth has plateaued over the past three months as the housing market continues to be constrained by the latest round of LVR [loan-to-value ratio mortgage] restrictions," QV National Spokesperson Andrea Rush said.
"Nationwide sales volumes have continued to be relatively weak and despite sales picking up in March compared to February, they were at their lowest level for March since 2014."
In Auckland the average value of all homes in the region dropped a tad to $1,043,830 in April compared to $1,045,362 in March.
But Auckland values have also remained in a narrow band since they peaked at $1,051,387 in November last year.
That suggests Auckland property values have also plateaued and may now be falling, but only very slowly.
A similar trend is evident in Christchurch, where the average residential property value dropped back to $495,855 in April from $497,120 in March after peaking at $501,229 in November last year.
But the Wellington region is going against the trend, with average property values there hitting a new record of $602,230 in April, the first time they have gone above $600,000.
However the rate of value growth was slowing in Wellington, Rush said, which suggested values could be approaching their peak there as well.
The rate of value growth had also slowed considerably in Tauranga and Queenstown, Rush said.
Here is a brief overview of the markets in the larger centres around the country:
Auckland. Average dwelling value $1,043,830.
QV Auckland Homevalue manager James Steel, said buyers in Auckland were hunting for good deals.
"Well presented properties in decent locations are still selling well although it's taking little longer than when the market was very hot and properties which are in poor condition or have issues are sitting around for a lot longer if vendors are unwilling to negotiate on price," he said.
Hamilton. Average dwelling value $538,832.
The level of interest in Hamilton properties was not as strong as it was late last year but homes were still selling, QV Homevalue valuer Stephen Hare said.
"With the heat now having come out of the market, auctions have become the less attractive course of action, with more properties being passed in," he said.
Tauranga. Average dwelling value $678,643.
The rate of value growth in Tauranga has been slowing since the introduction of LVR restrictions late last year and was up just 0.9% over the last three months.
Some agents were reporting a softening of sales of investment properties, but well located properties over $1 million continued to be in good demand, QV Homevalue valuer David Hume said.
Wellington region. Average dwelling value $602,230.
Wellington region values have risen by 3.4% over the last three months with the biggest rises occurring in Porirua where they were up by 5.5%, followed by Lower Hutt 4.3% and Wellington City 3.1%.
QV Homevalue valuer David Cornford said value growth in Porirua and the Hutt Valley was being supported by first home buyers, while the Wellington City market had slowed because first home buyers found it too expensive.
"The number of listings has increased and this has taken some of the heat out of the market," he said.
Christchurch. Average dwelling value $495,855.
Average values decreased in most parts of Christchurch over the last three months and are now only 1.4% higher than they were 12 months ago.
"While there is still plenty of of building going on around Christchurch, the residential market does appear to be flat lining in terms of value growth," QV Homevalue valuer Daryl Taggart said.
Dunedin. Average dwelling value $371,739.
The average value of homes in Dunedin has risen 3.5% in the last three months and 17% in the last 12 months.
"Properties continue to sell quickly, particularly those within the mid-value range, and values appear to be continuing to strengthen," QV Homevalue valuer Duncan Jack said.
No chart with that title exists.
91 Comments
Not surprised about Wellington. I reckon it's been under-valued relative to other cities for some time now.
As always, the Capital remains an excellent/safe place for property investment. The government sector provides for stability in the Capital's property market - and very consistent capital growth over time.
Auckland will come again - huge medium/long term potential. But a plateau is realistic and provides an opportunity for some - including, hopefully, first home buyers.
I don't reckon prices will fall by much (if at all) in preferred areas such as Central Auckland (GZ, Ponsonby, Freemans Bay, Herne Bay, Mission Bay etc). Convenient access to the CBD is a huge advantage and that's what people will pay for these days.
It's all about transport/traffic in Auckland, so handy location counts more than ever before.
Oh prices will fall gradually even in the more expensive areas of Auckland, now that we don't have the crazy price offers from Foreign Buyers from China. Though it will be much easier to spot the hard core money launders now. Not that our current Government is realisticly willing to do anything about them anyway.
The extent the best areas fall is impacted to a large extent by how much the outer suburbs fall as it's all about relative value.
Say Avondale averages $900k, then $1m seems ok in Mt Albert, $1.2m seems ok in Kingsland, $1.4m seems ok in Grey Lynn, etc.
However if Avondale prices fell to $600k (I'm not saying this will happen), then $1m in Mt Albert doesn't make sense and so on. Keep in mind there are some mind boggling levels of debt in some of Auckland's best suburbs - if one person in the household loses their job or there is another 1% rise in interest rates, that will be a tipping point for many families
Ooooppps! These suddenly start showing up all over the place. What's up with that?
http://www.realestate.co.nz/2990302
http://www.realestate.co.nz/3017323
http://www.realestate.co.nz/3051388
http://www.realestate.co.nz/3003569
One of those homes that is supposedly reduced is asking for the high figure of the homes.co.nz estimate. Two of the other homes have cladding that is off putting to many buyers and another is asking between the low figure and middle figure...so they don't look too notable to me.
Dream world - a 10% increase over 12 months will bring the ratio of income to house price to around 11:1; - highest of any peak in the developed world. In addition, average house prices would be twice their replacement cost. I do think Auckland will slowly deflate rather than pop - and that will result in caution in other markets. But the 'real estate speak' from QV is a massive disservice from a supposed expert who spends too much time talking to real estate agents and not enough time thinking about fundamentals.
yes but we know fundamentals have not been in play in the Auckland market for a number pf years, so maybe you have someone talking to others that have no experience of NZ property declines from years ago and believing the myth that house prices always rise quarter after quarter, year after year
Sharetrader Absolutely a Auckland property myth !
I've seen some terrible times in Auckland when RE signs remained perpetually on the street unsold
The smart ones used this time to buy
I know of one Englishman who was a traffic ticket officer in Auckland who did just that
He was seduced by the get rich in property blurb and has done very well for himself
Conversely there are those who buy at property price peaks and get caught as soon as prices decline
I don't know anyone who can categorically predict mortgage rates will remain low
It's nice to hope I guess
Election will be very interesting. If Winston is anywhere near the steering wheel and slams the gate on immigration and foreign ownership as promised then look at Vancover, several of the banks are already having severe issues with one being reported about to tip over due to liquidity crisis. Oh and dont forget the crash happening in Perth and appartment developers in Melbourne and Sydney all getting the sweats as chinese buyers fail to settle on downpayments.
amazing who would of thought tighten up on investors (done by the RB) and restrict overseas buyers (done by china not our government ) and house prices rise around inflation figures. IE dampen demand
next thing will be a surprise (not) will be stories of those that were encouraged to take on debts to play the leverage game going broke
Indeed, who'd a thunk it? Only us Negative Nellies/xenophobes who for some reason or other could see the only end this would eventually come to.
And to think this could have been avoided so long ago, (around 2008/09) if a certain person whose name escapes me right now, had walked the talk about housing.
At least he has walked away, now flown the coop...I will never ever, ever fly Air New Zealand....Again.
No wonder they are over priced, no wonder, not in it for the long haul...No wonder they can rip off New Zealander, in their own land. Flying from pillar to post, costs more than most other Countries...overseas trips.
Put a halt to it...
Then, They!.. might live to regret it too.
Vote with your feet as it is the only thing, some people...truly understand. No need for Flybuys...either.
Wakey Wakey....NZ.
Price increases where they have been, except for Wellington Region which is still going, have pushed a huge number of people away from the concept of owning a home. People are instead investing or not bothering to save a deposit. If you want prices to stay high you aren't supposed to scare away your potential customers by pushing prices well into the unaffordable.
"It could be the end of capital gains for the housing market". Highly unlikely! For that to happen prices would have to remain static for some considerable time. There are two parts to capital gains trading - Buy low and sell high AND Sell high and buy low. It's doing the latter that very few people have the courage to do, especially in an illiquid asset market.
This article is about houses, peoples HOMES, maybe soon they will return to being that instead of a bloody casino. The whole culture around housing, basically since Roger Douglas left his mark has just become utterly gross. Hopefully the true purpose of housing will re-emerge and people will again think of them as HOMES, and preferably their own homes.
Yes, I was just thinking (looking at the various headlines), that all the scuttlebutt is about homes, investing in homes, the future of real estate.
It reminded me of the 1980s. The news was totally dominated by the share market, investing in the share market, the future of the share market. And look where that ended up.
The scary thing is, that the investment in rental properties alone (let alone the total real estate market) is about 10 time that of the share market. Plus it's not real money being invested - it's mainly overseas money and money created by the banks, both of which have a reckoning. Plus porked along by the tax system, which only feeds the property market on the way up, not the way down.
I don't like the look of the view down from here.
It's had the feeling of 1987 for a long time now. And it's going to come crashing down on a lot of the same people. The ones who loaded up on Goldcorp and Ariadne, had their arses flapping in the breeze when it all collapsed, swore off shares forever, and have now made exactly the same mistake in another bubble.
No one ever mentions Rada Corporation. That's what my Mum lost her stake on.
Spun off from New Zealand Forest Products in 1985 and swiftly listed on the stockmarket, Rada was the sixth most widely-owned company by February 1987. Rada collapsed in October 1987 and was wound up shortly thereafter.
AFAIK Mum has never owned any shares since,.
I personally think, we should change Governments and change Banking.
One Government for New Zealand people.
One New Zealand Bank run for New Zealand.................People.
Only then will we be looked after...Honestly.
No money Launders and Double Dippers...allowed.
can't change banking - we opted way back to hop into the world economic ring. The debt was easy, useful and nice at increasing our living standards far faster. But it came with a proviso that we must keep leveraging our resources to
1) service the debt
2) keep the nice stuff coming
When you start hitting limits on leveraging your resources, you have to do some desperate stuff like floggin your assets and ponzi immigration. Enter (then exit) John Key.
Ham n eggs
Well said
NZers are not alone with their enormous household debt
Canadians households are awash in debt
So is every other western countries households
I think some people forget how bleak living in NZ once was
I remember when the first Warehouse arrived and Cargo King which brought kiwis affordable stuff
Previously a simple dress shirt was a major purchase for many ordinary households
totally - that was the trade off. Easy consumption but at a slow burning cost to our collective resources. And we are now truly indebted.
I was thinking after watching the Sunday program on Westport, how it nicely captures where the world is at as a whole. The incomes (courtesy of most of the nearby coal) has gone. If you waved a magic wand and doubled all the value of houses in Westport overnight (like Auckland..) you get some temporary uplift, but soon it turns back to lack of incomes .. & eyeing up the last big untouched block on coal (energy) on their doorstep. This is the world economy in a nutshell. Unless you can leverage energy resources somewhere then debt loses its value to do squat. And its what we are slowly seeing.
Not that significantly in the NZ Herald. They're still serving their advertising masters, from the looks of it.
Wonder if will see another spruiking article for Roy Hoy Fong or Gary "Chinese are the elite race!" Lin again soon.
Great to see prices stabilise around the country.
the market has quietened due to the Banks requirement for buyers to have to put in 40 per cent cash or through leverage.
This has made it impossible for many investors to be able to buy more and some families to be able to help their kids into a house.
This slowing of sales numbers creates great opportunities for certain buyers just like in 2009.
Investors do not be put off making buying decisions as interest rates are not increasing and yields are still ok providing the numbers add up.
Too Late. Everyone on here has concluded a bubble has burst and that property prices are in for a sharp dive just because the prices have not continued to increase at alarming rates. They weren't happy when property prices were increasing and those same people are not happy now that property prices are stabilizing. But i see where you are coming from and it is great to see some breathing space for first home buyers to catch up.
As you say too late.
The bubble hasn't burst yet, but it is interested to read the comments and some of the in between the lines comments that many more now believe that prices will fall. The question is now more how much than when or if.
The reality check for everyone is affordability, if you cannot afford to buy at today rates then at what level will the first home buyers be able to enter the market, will prices falling to 9 times income or will 7 times re the magic number (when i started it was 3.5 times).
Imagine that most first home buyers are buying because they are finally ready to settle down and raise a family, they want a stable home to do so. It that situation they may well be down to one income or at least reduced available income to pay a mortgage (due to day care etc.).
If its 12 or 11 times today, affordability is still a long way off.
I don't think it exists but I'd be really interested in data on sales conditional on the sale of another house, so:
• houses sold in the month conditional on another property
• conditional house sales completed in the month
• conditional sales cancelled based on the inability to sell another property.
I realise this data probably doesn't exist but my hypothesis would be that portion of sales that are conditional is increasing, that more conditional sales are being made than are being resolved successfully, and that the failure rate is increasing. I'd love to test whether that hypothesis is true.
Example of one house i know of, they have sold conditionally twice, first one fell through when one part of the chain couldn't sell, second sale is still on going only because they have been willing to extend.
Time will tell, if they manage to complete the sale this time (so they can buy their conditional purchase)
Chch opportunities are abundant at the moment if you have the ability to source out great buys.
Rentals provided they are well maintained still easy to find good tenants for and yields are getting better.
Professional property investors are going to have a field day.
Why would any investor who is probably buying with some level of borrowed funds buy in a dropping market and where rents are dropping. That does not seem to be a sensible thing to do when investing. Investors in Auckland and Christchurch should be patient as there is money to be saved if they wait until at least after the election. Just imagine what will happen to the dollar and housing if Winston gets into power with Labour and the Greens.
That would be temporary and likely most of the country would be better off after the slump and recovery. And given the pension was based on the idea most would be living mortgage-free in their own home, also better for long-term sustainability.
It would seem better than the alternative: generations locked out of home ownership and a consequently much more unsustainable pension model.
No I do not The Boy but we might get it as there are plenty of people around who think National have failed them in terms of housing and immigration. Did you expect a fool like Trump to become President or Brexit to happen? You and I might be okay financially but a large part of the working population are living week to week or worse. Trump said " I will make your lives better.' There are a lot of New Zealanders open to changing things to make their lives better. Will the opposition in NZ get a good enough message out there to get over the line. Time will tell.
Gordon, something that you buy well may never be cheaper in Christchurch.
Sorry, but you don't know the Christchurch market at all.
Don't beleive everything you read!
Yes but not requiring to put any physical money in and with positive yields on attractive property there is no downside, but you will see differently.
By the way the offer is still there!!!
Gordon, I do know more than the average about the Chch market.
Yes the Chch market and the market around the bulk of NZ has quietened down solely due to the ridiculous LVR alteration that was brought in.
DOesnt affect me except that is is now starting to offer better buys due to the market being quieter in Chch, so motivated vendors are meeting the market more.
The figures continue to be skewed due to the "as is where is" properties being sold.
Anyway, you continue with what you know and I will,continue with mine.
I am more worried about the equities market.
Its an interesting back and forth you guys are having.
If you buy now and don't plan to sell then you will be fine, the future selling prices are not important. you will build wealth through long term returns. Nothing wrong with the approach.
If you wait for prices to fall, you may be able to build more wealth using the same approach.
Of course the price of the specific property may not fall. And you can only buy it once.
If you need to borrow money to buy and the cost of money increases you would reduce your wealth creation, perhaps to the point where it is not worthwhile or even negative.
if you are buying for capital gain then it is a different story as you only make a gain when you sell, and the largest impact is from your buying price (included any additional costs, renovations etc.)
So you are both right.
John the fact that prices and rents in Christchurch have both been trending down for some time gives me the view that there is no need for any investor to be in the market currently. Winter is here and the election is approaching. Why borrow money at a time when the trend is down. Money you have to repay along with interest. Why not buy at the bottom rather than on the way down.
Perhaps just look at the curve, its due for a fall, possibly even more to come before it gets back on track and slowly continues to rise. The worldwide population is increasing and when it comes to land they are not making any more of it. Add in that NZ is one of the best places in the world to live in and as far away from all the other countries that are going down the toilet like Greece, Venezuela, most of Africa, Syria and most of the middle east and North Korea as you can get, its only going to get more popular.
Nothing is one way. Price has to stabilize at some time.
National whose interest in house price zooming up..up...and up is not doing anything to support at the moment because of election.....vote for them and see how and what they do.
Election not that far away. Though national will come out with cover up policies to win vote (without intent) but think and vote for change as 9 years is too long a term for single party to rule that too national.
Proof that markets are driven by fear and greed .
Greed was the driver , but fear is slowly taking a grip :-
Fear that interest rates may rise
Fear that there will be fewer migrants arriving to drive up prices
Fear that the Auckland Unitary may end up with an adequate supply or even an oversupply of land for development
Fear that the market has overshot itself , and was due to come back anyway
Fear that a new coalition Government will shut down immigration ( certain if Winston Peters is the Kingmaker)
Fear that construction costs have gone too far , and there is no longer value
Fear of an unknown election outcome
Fear of Capital Gains Tax
Fear of a Vancouver - type tax on foreigners
Fear of an Aussie - type restriction on foreigners buying new builds only
Fear of a UK -type Landlords Levy
Fear that the crackdown by China on currency leaving China , may have some effect here
Its amazing what effect a small but seemingly insignificant or innocuous set of factors can do to a market
It is less likely this time, prices used to go up because Auckland always was the best at building anew - a real go getter city. You could always find opportunity in Auckland.
But Auckland has now decided not to build much of anything and it has plan in place to prevent building until 2040. Auckland is becoming a high rent/low growth city and that is not attractive to the next wave of home buyers.
It might trade on old perspectives for a while, but medium to long term Auckland is not looking good.
Nicely put Mr Boatman. Interestingly if Winson does have any fingers on the wheel, most of those will become fact, because the ponzi is underpinned by two key foundations, 1) Nat Immigration policy, and 2) overseas owners paying stupid prices compared to NZ incomes. Winny has specifically stated he will fundamentally u turn both drivers. The rest is just a house of cards mainly from specuvestors chasing debt leverage and tax minimization.
I do agree that there are other factors in Akl, restrictive council, increase demand, high construction costs blah blah, I just continue to be amazed that the property Bulls are so blinded by greed they cannot see the scary looking Bear catching up, with Winston about set fire to its tail. Kiwis cant pay any more, business cannot pay their staff any more. Stupid house prices/mortgages and rents is simply sucking the life out of NZ.
Vote for, whats the current buzzword... "disruption"
"Vote for...whats the current buzzword..."disruption""
Disruption is exactly what Peters will be. He will not achieve anything useful other than to confound, obfuscate, and impede anything from getting done (good or bad).
Will a vote for Winnie achieve anything really? - Cue picture of Winnie holding a big "NO!" sign.
The up and coming generation are disillusioned with democracy. Could be interesting:
Europe’s youth don’t care to vote—but they’re ready to join a mass revolt
Young Europeans are sick of the status quo in Europe. And they’re ready to take to the streets to bring about change, according to a recent survey.
Around 580,000 respondents in 35 countries were asked the question: Would you actively participate in large-scale uprising against the generation in power if it happened in the next days or months? More than half of 18- to 34-year-olds said yes.
yes - not surprising. Democracy works when there's plenty to go round - democracy is in itself an expensive form of organising anything. Increasingly there is a growing mass who are finding they are getting squeezed .. their share of the pie is declining but there is no real (democratic) solution on the horizon. The wealth & resources simply aren't there.
Trouble is, an uprising might make them feel better, but it wont magically produce more resources.
I think you hit the nail on the head when you mentioned it's "their share of the pie" that's declining. The changes in policy and law that changed houses from being about homes to being about investments have achieved that much. That's the sort of thing that could be changed back to right the ship and re-adjust the share in line with NZ's historical norms.
The trade off with "political stability" is a govt with too much power, and then if they have too much power they don't really have to listen.
And how do they get that "political stability". by partnering up with the MP that couldnt be further from their electorates values.
I don't know the politics history too well of NZForWP but is it not understandable that you NO more than YES whilst in the opposition. That could be a good thing that he sticks to his principles(some might argue he does not have any, but i think u could say that about alot of politicians). And they say that WP is populist but all politicians are really, they are all just buying your vote. The worst are those that buy your vote with one thing and then do the complete opposite. For instance this govt want to chop up reserves, I did not vote for them to do this. And it is dumb for a whole host of reasons, overriding planning, central govt knows best attitude to name some. And the govt wrote the legislation to do such and then heard from the public, but did nothing with the feedback. A big screw you to the public feedback. Now you might say that the public don't know jack, and you might have a point, but I would have thought that at least 5% or so have some value inputs. And this is not the only case.
I don't what this govt is like. Not sure if it is 3rd termism or what but they just do not want to listen. So based on that I don't think another term with them would be good. So then we look at the opposition. And nothing really interests me there. so it's a choice of useless or useless. It really is sad.
Banks are now doing great rate deals and are back to offering cash payments to make you change bank.
4.25% fixed for two years available if you ask. For those wanting longer term security ask for 4.85% for 4 years. The banks are flush with cash, making bigger profits than ever before and have trimmed their excessive margins and want your business.
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