Housing values have flattened across the country, including Auckland, according to the latest figures from Quotable Value.
The average dwelling value for the whole of New Zealand is now $559,492 and has increased just 0.2% over the last three months.
In Auckland the average dwelling's value has decreased by 0.2% to $931,061 over the three months to February (see chart below for full details).
However property values in some parts of Auckland have posted more substantial declines, with the average value of properties on the North Shore and Waitakere both declining 1.1% in the three months to February while those in central Auckland were down 0.3%.
But values continued to rise in the region's northern and southern fringes, with the average values in Rodney up 1.8%, and average values in Papakura and Franklin up 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively.
However average values continued to rise strongly in Hamilton where they increased 3.7% in the three months to February, and in Tauranga where they were up 5.5%.
In other major centres, average values in Wellington rose 4.2% in the three months to February, and were up 0.8% over the same period in Christchurch and up 2% in Dunedin.
"Home values have risen in most parts of New Zealand in the first quarter of 2016 with the exception of the Auckland region where values have been on a slight downward trend over the last three months," QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush said.
"The strong upward trend in Hamilton and Wellington housing markets is continuing unabated, while in comparison the Christchurch market remains relatively flat," she said.
According to CoreLogic's latest buyer classification data, 44% of sales in Auckland in the three months to February were to multiple property owners (most likely investors), 21% were to first time buyers and 24% were people moving from one house to another.
Around the rest of the country, multiple property owners accounted for 37% of sales, 20% were to first time buyers and 26% went to people moving from one house to another.
See the chart below for the QV's average value of homes in all parts of the country.
| QV House Price Index | |||||
| Time period: March 2016 | |||||
| Average current value | 12 month change% | 3 month change % | |||
| Auckland Region | 931,061 | 16.9% | -0.2% | ||
| Wellington Region | 491,236 | 7.5% | 3.1% | ||
| Main Urban Areas | 667,102 | 12.4% | -0.3% | ||
| Total New Zealand | 559,492 | 11.4% | 0.2% | ||
| Far North | 336,333 | 11.1% | 2.3% | ||
| Whangarei | 395,670 | 14.0% | 4.0% | ||
| Kaipara | 390,682 | 13.0% | 6.8% | ||
| Auckland - Rodney | 830,104 | 17.4% | 1.8% | ||
| Rodney - Hibiscus Coast | 811,997 | 15.6% | 1.0% | ||
| Rodney - North | 850,225 | 19.3% | 2.7% | ||
| Auckland - North Shore | 1,077,459 | 15.1% | -1.1% | ||
| North Shore - Coastal | 1,221,028 | 13.9% | -1.9% | ||
| North Shore - Onewa | 867,412 | 15.0% | -1.2% | ||
| North Shore - North Harbour | 1,066,069 | 18.8% | 1.2% | ||
| Auckland - Waitakere | 739,411 | 18.1% | -1.1% | ||
| Auckland - City | 1,093,035 | 14.5% | -0.3% | ||
| Auckland City - Central | 959,332 | 16.1% | 0.9% | ||
| Auckland_City - East | 1,361,455 | 13.9% | -0.9% | ||
| Auckland City - South | 988,243 | 14.5% | -0.3% | ||
| Auckland City - Islands | 905,380 | 9.0% | -0.1% | ||
| Auckland - Manukau | 799,700 | 20.9% | 0.5% | ||
| Manukau - East | 1,024,120 | 17.7% | 0.2% | ||
| Manukau - Central | 623,098 | 24.8% | 0.6% | ||
| Manukau - North West | 684,683 | 23.4% | 1.1% | ||
| Auckland - Papakura | 612,866 | 27.4% | 1.9% | ||
| Auckland - Franklin | 589,925 | 19.2% | 1.7% | ||
| Thames Coromandel | 566,037 | 8.7% | 3.5% | ||
| Hauraki | 285,933 | 13.8% | 5.2% | ||
| Waikato | 368,282 | 25.6% | 7.0% | ||
| Matamata Piako | 326,964 | 14.9% | 6.1% | ||
| Hamilton City | 460,725 | 23.3% | 3.7% | ||
| Hamilton - North East | 579,195 | 22.9% | 3.2% | ||
| Hamilton - Central & North West | 428,575 | 23.5% | 2.9% | ||
| Hamilton - South East | 426,877 | 23.5% | 5.0% | ||
| Hamilton - South West | 408,260 | 24.8% | 3.9% | ||
| Waipa | 410,800 | 16.3% | 5.4% | ||
| Otorohanga | 223,964 | 11.4% | -0.9% | ||
| South Waikato | 144,706 | 15.9% | 3.8% | ||
| Waitomo | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
| Taupo | 375,562 | 9.3% | 3.6% | ||
| Western BOP | 497,748 | 18.7% | 7.1% | ||
| Tauranga | 571,872 | 22.6% | 5.5% | ||
| Rotorua | 305,603 | 13.8% | 3.6% | ||
| Whakatane | 320,040 | 8.3% | 3.1% | ||
| Kawerau | 118,993 | 13.7% | 8.1% | ||
| Opotiki | 224,225 | 11.4% | 3.9% | ||
| Gisborne | 234,515 | 2.3% | 1.7% | ||
| Wairoa | 146,103 | -1.1% | -1.4% | ||
| Hastings | 331,149 | 9.6% | 2.6% | ||
| Napier | 358,732 | 9.1% | 4.3% | ||
| Central Hawkes Bay | 223,204 | 4.6% | 1.9% | ||
| New Plymouth | 379,926 | 6.4% | 2.0% | ||
| Stratford | 213,917 | 11.4% | 2.1% | ||
| South Taranaki | 186,154 | 1.0% | -1.1% | ||
| Ruapehu | 139,589 | 7.9% | 4.6% | ||
| Whanganui | 190,576 | 5.6% | 0.7% | ||
| Rangitikei | 147,483 | 4.1% | 0.5% | ||
| Manawatu | 259,762 | 6.0% | 2.4% | ||
| Palmerston North | 306,609 | 6.0% | 1.7% | ||
| Tararua | 156,173 | 4.0% | 1.2% | ||
| Horowhenua | 216,555 | 5.8% | 1.5% | ||
| Kapiti Coast | 403,144 | 6.5% | 3.1% | ||
| Porirua | 407,746 | 7.5% | 2.6% | ||
| Upper Hutt | 349,295 | 3.6% | 0.6% | ||
| Hutt | 395,285 | 5.5% | 1.8% | ||
| Wellington Region | 593,060 | 8.9% | 4.2% | ||
| Wellington - Central & South | 593,636 | 7.5% | 3.6% | ||
| Wellington - East | 650,254 | 10.0% | 4.1% | ||
| Wellington - North | 522,098 | 8.7% | 4.5% | ||
| Wellington - West | 689,133 | 11.8% | 4.8% | ||
| Masterton | 248,008 | 3.5% | 1.8% | ||
| Carterton | 281,647 | 2.7% | 6.0% | ||
| South Wairarapa | 321,757 | 6.4% | 1.5% | ||
| Tasman | 441,024 | 5.1% | 1.1% | ||
| Nelson | 446,860 | 8.9% | 4.3% | ||
| Marlborough | 375,044 | 6.1% | 2.5% | ||
| Kaikoura | 381,908 | 8.1% | 3.3% | ||
| Buller | 181,687 | -8.4% | -4.1% | ||
| Grey | 207,439 | -5.2% | 2.6% | ||
| Westland | 228,740 | 0.0% | -1.2% | ||
| Hurunui | 361,387 | 6.8% | 1.5% | ||
| Waimakariri | 423,025 | 1.9% | 1.4% | ||
| Christchurch City | 485,700 | 2.9% | 0.8% | ||
| Christchurch - East | 368,818 | 4.5% | 0.8% | ||
| Christchurch - Hills | 652,617 | 2.5% | -0.2% | ||
| Christchurch - Central & North | 570,630 | 3.3% | 0.6% | ||
| Christchurch - Southwest | 462,012 | 1.6% | 1.4% | ||
| Christchurch - Banks Peninsula | 492,865 | 3.2% | 0.6% | ||
| Selwyn | 532,275 | 2.6% | 1.5% | ||
| Ashburton | 339,836 | 4.5% | -0.6% | ||
| Timaru | 319,270 | 7.0% | 1.7% | ||
| MacKenzie | 344,297 | 8.6% | 4.8% | ||
| Waimate | 215,409 | 2.5% | 0.1% | ||
| Waitaki | 235,861 | 4.8% | 1.5% | ||
| Central Otago | 356,462 | 11.5% | 3.6% | ||
| Queenstown Lakes | 810,980 | 13.3% | 4.4% | ||
| Dunedin City | 315,185 | 8.1% | 2.0% | ||
| Dunedin - Central & North | 328,089 | 8.2% | 1.1% | ||
| Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal | 282,889 | 5.9% | 2.0% | ||
| Dunedin - South | 299,944 | 9.0% | 2.7% | ||
| Dunedin - Taieri | 328,117 | 8.1% | 2.9% | ||
| Clutha | 177,429 | 5.8% | 8.4% | ||
| Southland | 216,090 | 6.3% | 1.6% | ||
| Gore | 190,430 | 3.9% | 3.5% | ||
| Invercargill | 217,740 | 4.4% | 1.1% | ||
| Notes on the above data: | |||||
| 1. The information included in the above table is based on the monthly property value index. This index is calculated based on the sales data entered into CoreLogic's system in the previous 3 month period. For example, information for the period ending June will be calculated based on sales entered between April 1 and June 30. | |||||
| 2. The average current value is the average (mean) value of all developed residential properties in the area based on the latest index. It is not an average or median sales price, as both of those only measure what happens to have sold in the period. | |||||
| 3. The percentage change over three months, twelve months and since the 2007 market peak are based on the change in the property value index between that time and the current. | |||||
| 4. Any of the statistical data shown in italics are calculated based on a sample set of data that is less than the recommended minimum. These results should be used with caution. Those showing N/A had too few sales to generate an index | |||||
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48 Comments
Exact replay of 2004-2007, so it has another 2 years at least to run.
Just remember, post 2007 tiny towns, including Gisbourne, huntly, etc anything under 40k that didnt have a core of infrastructure to support people in employment during down turns, these small towns lost a lot of the gains. Rotorua population growth (history and predicted) is poor and I wouldnt be going there myself at this point . PN still best value for investors being a 85k plus city with uni, army and major hospital in a 100k plus region (with feildings 30k added) but even there its getting very heated up with first home buyers scrambling to get in before investors on anything thats not too run down
Don't we have to make this judgement with the data right here and now? Property prices seem stable, rents slowly trending up, migration increasing, unemployment level stable and interest rates trending downward and likely to stay down for a while yet. The assessment would have to be that 'landlord land' is currently doing okay.
We haven't acquired properties just last week, it's a long term thing spanning ten, twenty or thirty years or more. Just for arguments sake If you bought a house for 600K at 4% the mortgage interest would be 24K and rent at $500 a week would be 26K.
Why would a Landlord being chucking 26K+ at this investment?
Barfoots figures for March show just the opposite with prices back to the December peak.
As they sell the most houses in the Auckland region I would trust their figures in the first instance.
My own experience supports this with all ranges selling as fast as they are listed.
As the majority are sold prior to auction, the less desirable are left over and hence the reason for fewer successes on auction day. Further the majority of 'left overs" are sold within a few days of auction day.
Maybe but it still doesn't have quite the feeling of craziness that it had last year. Lay people tend to be talking of a general flattening over the last few months which makes sense given what was happening last year. Given that March is one of the hottest month for sales I think FHB may find these results relatively encouraging - or at least not disappointing.
If one sells 50 houses totaling $15,000,000 the average is $300,000 but if one sells 49 houses totaling $15,000,000 the average is $306,122. Averages like medians serve a purpose in that it is an amount that people can and will focus on when making purchasing decisions.........
Does anyone actually know how to value a house anymore?
You have to be joking, to value a house here in New Zealand is like pin the tail on the donkey!
Normally you would base a house valuation on the area (value increase or decrease), and any improvements and general condition of the property. But due to the auction system and other crazy nonsense such as over seas investors, there's no reasoning really to house prices here.
For working out the price on your own property take a note of the average house price in your city when you buy and the percentage difference. When selling find out the average price and add or subtract the same percentage and that will be fairly close to what you can expect to sell for. It will take a bit more investigation when buying a house but you should be able to find the numbers as long as the house you are buying was sold in the not too distant past and you get the sales history. TradeMe's free app will be useful for doing this. This system has worked well for me. I reckon I am way better than most agents at working this out.
Can someone please explain note 2 at the bottom of the article for me;
'The average current value is the average (mean) value of all developed residential properties in the area based on the latest index. It is not an average or median sales price, as both of those only measure what happens to have sold in the period.'
It certainly seems a more sanguine property market. The main game in town(Auckland) seems to be property developers looking to sub divide existing plots. As has been reported by others there seems considerably less demand for properties above $1.8m compared with last year but that is probably down to the new lending restrictions on mortgages and the tightening up capital outflows out of China.
Whether the Panama Papers expose is going to have affect on further foreign investment flows in the NZ housing market is probably a question to discuss in a few weeks time but reading the global press there is going to be greater monitoring of monies from offshore entities.
Yes it's certainty going to be interesting times in regards to what falls out of the Panama papers and NZ housing market related to foreign investors.
Though I'm sure Mr Key will find some way to smoke screen it. Too bad for him that he's already used the replacing the flag with a bath mat debate, to hide or ignore more important issues like NZ's economy gradually going down the pan.
The witch hunt is going to go on for months and years.
Squeaky bum time for a few lawyers,banks and accountants around the world.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/apr/05/panama-papers-london-law-fi…
@CJ099 ..... NZ's economy is "utterly robust", it will never "go down the pan" !
How do I know this ? ......all too easy, just ask BE or JK et al and as per Mike Hosking, everything is just going "Gangbusters" !!! .....nothing to worry about :)
I personally think that John Key should publicly apologise to the people of Auckland, for the statements he has made over the last 2-3 years, that overseas buyers do not affect the price of property at all .... or only represent 3% of the market !! ......sorry John some of us are not that stupid !
Rather than all the spruikers v doomsayers arguments we have here perhaps if someone could find the indexed figures and/or the comparative performance for this exact period last year we could have some more accurate data to work from than our own "feelings"? The Indexed figures used to be released here but I haven't seen them lately, does anyone know why?
In today's Herald QV expanded their release a bit further and said
" QV spokeswomen Andrea Rush said that values in Auckland had risen in the past month by 0.6 per cent suggesting the downward trend in the Super City may be coming to an end".
In other words the small drop of -0.2% in Jan/Feb has been swamped by 3 times over in March to +0.6% or an annual compounded increase of +7.44% if this keeps up for the rest of the year.
link:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=116…
Interesting that there has not been a lot of excitement over this data from B&T who are not the only firm of agents in Auckland. They admit that a larger number of houses were sold with sale prices of more than a million dollars. Hardly suprising therefore that the average price and the median price were going to increase in March. Nothing to get excited over unless you are desperate property agents like Zach and Bid Daddy. You need to wait for the stratified index data from the REINZ as it is the most accurate data available as it irons out possible anomalies where for example there has been more higher priced house sales in a given month. Two members of my family selling houses with price tags over $2 million are not having any success. One has been listed since November 2015. My sources tell me it is not great in Auckland currently and with winter coming on it is only going to get worse.
Are people not getting a bit bored with the daily reporting on the Auckland house prices ? prices are just going to keep skyrocketing in Auckland, get used to it. Instability in the world means smart people are going to be wanting to move here. First it was just the Chinese now its the whole of Europe. How many people saw this artical ?
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/france-sees-millionaire-exodus-religious-tensi…
How much of the monthly increase is based on South Auckland quick flicks by various groups, just look on trade me and you can see them. Buy for $450 - $550k spend $30-50k then try to flick for $550 - $650k? Shows through in the monthly stats as ever increasing figures. I don't think your average punter who is sitting in his / her house has an appreciating asset, its just the quick flicks that are inflating the overall average price..
There could be some truth to this. I think if the market is not sky rocketing certain punters will look to niche areas where a buck can be made. They will be looking for do-ups, or two beddies that can be converted to three. Places that can be tarted up quickly and easily in newly popular areas like the South Auckland suburbs. A lot of migrants are repelled by scruffy houses and will pay over the odds for something that looks neat and tidy. Good on them for doing this. A way of earning money in the Global City.
The data that would help those trying to gauge what is happening in the AKL market is the current level of overseas investment. In the Prime Central London market it has been quoted that a year ago 70% of the buyers were from overseas and that has now fallen to 30%.
With the release of the Panama Papers I think this from now on will make overseas property buyers using offshore trusts a lot more cautious as the signs are there will be a global clampdown on money laundering and the source of the funds. As we have read the Australians have started freezing assets from shonky sources-good on them.
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