The head of this country's largest commercial real estate agency believes commercial property's bull run could continue for another three years.
In a Double Shot interview with interest.co.nz, Mark Synnott, the chief executive of Collier International's New Zealand arm, said the current market upturn was the strongest and most sustainable he had experienced in his 27 years in the industry.
"Between the late 80s and the mid-90s it was really tough. Way, way tougher than the GFC (global financial crisis)," he said.
"We started to come out of that toward the late 90s and then we hit the Asian crisis.
"Then we had that rush of blood to the head in the mid-2000s and then we've gone through the GFC.
"But this is the strongest period of sustainable growth. The growth we had in the early to mid-2000s wasn't sustainable," he said.
That was showing up in Colliers' revenue figures, which hit an all time high of $71.5 million last year, and this year was shaping up to be even bigger, with revenue so far this year running 17% ahead of the same period last year.
A key factor for investors was was that yields on good commercial properties were still higher than bank deposit rates.
The investors buying into the market were either local high net worth individuals, or overseas investors, mainly from Asia, who were a mix of corporate investors and wealthy individuals.
A notable feature of the market was that Asian investors had now largely replaced corporate Australian investors as the main overseas buyers of commercial properties in this country, he said.
Synnott said Colliers had recently sold the former Auckland Star Building site on Auckland's Fort St for around $28 million to some Chinese investors.
The buyers were a relatively young Chinese investor and his cousin, who would likely redevelop the site, which is currently a car park, into a mixed use complex, possibly a hotel and offices or a hotel and apartments.
Many of the locals who were buying commercial property were business people who were approaching retirement age and didn't want to reinvest into another business.
Commercial property provided a sustainable cash flow and allowed them to put their feet up a bit, he said.
However there were signs the market could be peaking.
"It's not too topped out but we don't think it's got anywhere to go now," Synnott said.
"We are hoping we'll have a strong steady market for the next three years.
"But inevitably there will be a correction and that usually happens at the end of a decade."
Some businesses that owned their own premises were starting to sell their properties to release capital, particularly if they bought at low prices in the aftermath of the GFC.
"Some are doing sale and leasebacks. It's a good time to get their capital out and put it back into their business where they'll get a higher return," he said.
4 Comments
Dont forget the ultra cheap money from the ECB..... In a Global world with free flows of Capital.... some of that money will end up here
Yields on all assets are going to drop to, almost, nothing.... and then what..??
I reckon its' a travesty ...with dire longer term consequences..
http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2014/06/05/5-takeaways-from-the-ecbs-moves…
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/06/05/european-central-bank-rates-a…
The Bank of Japan's ongoing significant QE operation is hard to ignore:
The Bank of Japan will conduct money market operations so that the monetary base will increase at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen.
Much of this monetising of existing assets will find it's way out of Japan via the carry trade.
Led by Mizuho Asset Management Co., at least five money managers that oversee a combined $236 billion are snapping up Treasuries due in about a decade as inflation-adjusted yields approach the highest level since 1998 relative to Japanese government bonds. Japan’s holdings of U.S. debt rose by $98.2 billion last quarter, the second-largest increase since the Treasury Department began releasing the data in 2000.
“There’s tremendous deflationary pressure in the U.S.,” Yusuke Ito, a senior fund manager at Mizuho Asset Management, which oversees about $32 billion, said in a telephone interview from Tokyo on Dec. 4. “For bonds, the longer the maturity, the better” as slowing inflation preserves the purchasing power of fixed-rate interest payments.
Ito said the company held most of its U.S. debt in Treasuries due in five years and more and predicts yields on 10-year notes will fall to 2.10 percent by the middle of 2014 from 2.85 percent today. Mizuho Asset’s holdings also had a longer average maturity than those in the benchmark index it uses to gauge performance, he said. Read more
Surely NZ is seen exhibiting the same conditions despite protestations to the contrary.
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