By Bernard Hickey
Lower interest rates and flat to lower house prices helped improve home loan affordability in 21 out of 24 of areas surveyed across New Zealand in March, the Roost Home Loan Affordability report shows.
A loosening of lending criteria and more intense competition for mortgage lending by the banks is also making it easier for first home buyers to get into the market, the report found.
Only Auckland Central, Tauranga and Kapiti Coast saw their home loan affordability measures deteriorate as house prices rose significantly in those areas, overwhelming the positive effects of the March 10 floating mortgage rate cuts after the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy loosening.
There were renewed signs of a two speed housing market across New Zealand in March. Higher priced properties in Auckland and some wealthier resort areas saw increased activity and prices, while provincial cities, Christchurch and the fringe areas of large cities experienced flat to falling prices.
First home buyer affordability continued to improve to its best levels in seven years as flat to lower prices for entry level homes and the mid-March mortgage rate cuts combined to reduce mortgage servicing costs as a percentage of after-tax income.
There are also fresh signs that some banks have relaxed lending criteria and are offering discounts on legal and loan establishment fees.
Looser credit rules
“The banks are competing harder than ever for business, which is improving the prospects for first home buyers in particular,” said Rhonda Maxwell, spokeswoman for mortgage broking group Roost Home Loans.
Some banks are offering loan to value ratios of up to 90 and 95% and giving interest rate discounts when in competitive situations, Maxwell said.
“The increased willingness of some banks to go the extra mile with fee discounts and interest rate reductions is encouraging some new home buying,” Maxwell said.
A young couple earning the median wage could afford to buy a first quartile priced house in March, with 21.1% of their disposable income required to service an 80% mortgage. This is down from 21.6% in February and down from a June 2007 high of 35.1%.
The national median house price rose to a record high NZ$365,000 in March from NZ$350,000 in February, but the first quartile house price was flatter at NZ$250,000 in March from NZ$245,000 in February. Prices outside of central Auckland, Tauranga and Kapiti Coast are flat to falling.
The Roost Home Loan Affordability report measures affordability nationally and regionally for individual income earners and households, taking into account median house prices, interest rates and incomes.
The Roost Home Loan Affordability measure for all of New Zealand showed the proportion of a single median after tax income needed to service an 80% mortgage on a median was 53.7% in March. This was better than the 54% seen at the end of February and the 83.4% seen at the peak of the boom in March 2008.
Affordability improved across 21 of the 24 areas surveyed. Central Auckland, Tauranga and Kapiti Coast affordability worsened because of house prices rises. Affordability improved dramatically in South Auckland, Whangarei, Rotorua, Gisborne, Napier, New Plymouth, Queenstown and Invercargill because of house prices being flat to falling while interest rates fell.
Affordability has been improving since December 2009 as house prices have flattened out and interest rates have fallen, the monthly measure calculated by interest.co.nz in association with Roost found.
Most borrowers floating
Most home owners are still on fixed mortgages, but more new borrowers are choosing to float, given floating rates at around 5.75% are cheaper than average longer term fixed rates at around 6.2%. Some borrowers are choosing to fix for shorter periods (6 months) where some rates are below 5.6%.
The Home Loan Affordability reports are now using the floating rate as most new mortgages are now floating rather than fixed. Home loan affordability hit its worst level of 83.4% in March 2008 just after house prices peaked and 2 year mortgage rates were close to 10%.
Affordability is difficult in Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Hamilton and Tauranga for those on a single median income, but homebuyers in smaller provincial cities will find home ownership much more affordable. Households with two incomes are also in a stronger position, particularly those bidding for homes priced in the lower quartile.
Affordability for households with more than one income improved slightly because of the fall in interest rates. This measure of a ‘standard typical household' found the proportion of after tax income needed to service the mortgage on a median house was to 35.3% at the end of March from 35.5% in December.
This measure assumes one median male income, half a median female income aged 30-35 and a 5 year old child that receives Working-for-Families benefits. Any level over 40% is considered unaffordable for a household, whereas any level closer to 30% has coincided with increased buyer demand in the past.
The survey’s measure of a ‘standard first-home-buyer household' found the proportion of after tax income needed to service the mortgage on a first quartile home fell to 21.1% in March from 21.6% in February.
This measure assumes a first home buyer household includes a median male income and a median female income aged 25-29 with no children. Any level over 30% is considered unaffordable in the longer term for such a household, while any level closer to 20% is seen as attractive and coinciding with strong demand.
Full regional reports are available below:
- New Zealand (159kb .pdf)
- Northland (159kb .pdf)
- Whangarei (159kb .pdf)
- Auckland region (159kb .pdf)
- Auckland Central (159kb .pdf)
- Auckland North Shore (159kb .pdf)
- Auckland South(159kb .pdf)
- Auckland West(159kb .pdf)
- Waikato and Bay of Plenty (159kb .pdf)
- Hamilton (159kb .pdf)
- Tauranga (159kb .pdf)
- Rotorua (159kb .pdf)
- Hawkes Bay and Gisborne (159kb .pdf)
- Napier (159kb .pdf)
- Hastings (159kb .pdf)
- Gisborne (159kb .pdf)
- Taranaki (159kb .pdf)
- New Plymouth (159kb .pdf)
- Manawatu and Wanganui(159kb .pdf)
- Palmerston North(159kb .pdf)
- Wanganui(159kb .pdf)
- Wellington region (159kb .pdf)
- Wellington City (159kb .pdf)
- Wellington Hutt Valley(159kb .pdf)
- Porirua (159kb .pdf)
- Kapiti Coast (159kb .pdf)
- Nelson and Marlborough (159kb .pdf)
- Nelson (159kb .pdf)
- Canterbury (156kb .pdf)
- Christchurch (156kb .pdf)
- Timaru (156kb .pdf)
- Central Otago Lakes (159kb .pdf)
- Queenstown (159kb .pdf)
- Otago (159kb .pdf)
- Dunedin (159kb .pdf)
- Southland (159kb .pdf)
- Invercargill (159kb .pdf)
| Regional home loan affordability comparison: | ||||||
| mortgage payment as a % of weekly take-home pay | ||||||
|
Mar-11
|
Feb-11
|
Mar-10
|
Mar-09
|
Mar-08
|
Mar-07
|
|
| New Zealand |
53.7%
|
54.0%
|
64.7%
|
55.7%
|
83.4%
|
78.8%
|
| Northland |
53.9%
|
55.5%
|
63.7%
|
56.4%
|
84.5%
|
75.9%
|
| - Whangarei |
41.7%
|
46.1%
|
54.4%
|
49.6%
|
73.5%
|
68.0%
|
| Auckland |
65.5%
|
67.9%
|
80.8%
|
68.2%
|
97.7%
|
94.8%
|
| - Central |
71.7%
|
67.3%
|
91.4%
|
71.0%
|
104.8%
|
105.6%
|
| - North Shore |
72.0%
|
73.3%
|
87.0%
|
70.8%
|
103.9%
|
99.5%
|
| - South |
64.4%
|
69.4%
|
78.0%
|
70.1%
|
93.1%
|
91.8%
|
| - West |
59.0%
|
59.5%
|
68.1%
|
58.1%
|
82.4%
|
80.4%
|
| Waikato/BOP |
47.8%
|
50.8%
|
61.5%
|
54.8%
|
80.8%
|
77.5%
|
| - Hamilton |
49.1%
|
52.4%
|
63.3%
|
56.3%
|
81.9%
|
81.7%
|
| - Tauranga |
58.6%
|
56.0%
|
71.8%
|
62.1%
|
89.2%
|
88.9%
|
| - Rotorua |
36.5%
|
41.3%
|
48.5%
|
44.2%
|
62.9%
|
58.9%
|
| Hawkes Bay |
43.1%
|
49.6%
|
55.0%
|
48.9%
|
71.3%
|
68.7%
|
| - Napier |
46.6%
|
54.3%
|
62.6%
|
54.2%
|
72.8%
|
73.1%
|
| - Hastings |
41.5%
|
50.5%
|
54.9%
|
49.6%
|
74.4%
|
67.3%
|
| - Gisborne |
41.1%
|
45.0%
|
56.2%
|
44.9%
|
67.8%
|
73.9%
|
| Manawatu/Wanganui |
34.7%
|
39.8%
|
45.2%
|
40.4%
|
58.6%
|
57.7%
|
| - Palmerston North |
38.9%
|
42.8%
|
50.0%
|
44.8%
|
70.2%
|
62.4%
|
| - Wanganui |
29.5%
|
38.2%
|
41.4%
|
31.1%
|
49.8%
|
51.6%
|
| Taranaki |
43.1%
|
47.6%
|
54.7%
|
46.3%
|
66.0%
|
65.4%
|
| - New Plymouth |
45.6%
|
53.1%
|
59.6%
|
55.5%
|
88.0%
|
80.3%
|
| Wellington region |
56.4%
|
58.2%
|
67.9%
|
57.8%
|
90.7%
|
79.8%
|
| - City |
57.9%
|
63.6%
|
71.5%
|
61.3%
|
91.6%
|
84.2%
|
| - Hutt Valley |
49.6%
|
50.4%
|
58.9%
|
49.9%
|
71.7%
|
67.5%
|
| - Porirua |
59.8%
|
62.2%
|
69.0%
|
56.6%
|
86.5%
|
87.6%
|
| - Kapiti Coast |
53.2%
|
52.3%
|
71.2%
|
53.9%
|
86.2%
|
76.7%
|
| Nelson/Marlborough |
53.1%
|
56.0%
|
66.7%
|
58.3%
|
82.5%
|
82.5%
|
| - Nelson |
53.2%
|
57.5%
|
64.8%
|
57.6%
|
78.8%
|
80.2%
|
| Canterbury/Westland |
44.0%
|
46.2%
|
56.8%
|
49.6%
|
77.1%
|
71.8%
|
| - Christchurch |
52.7%
|
54.6%
|
65.2%
|
54.3%
|
84.4%
|
82.1%
|
| - Timaru |
36.9%
|
38.0%
|
46.3%
|
41.0%
|
61.1%
|
54.2%
|
| Central Otago Lakes |
70.7%
|
73.1%
|
86.2%
|
77.8%
|
123.9%
|
102.9%
|
| - Queenstown |
82.3%
|
95.5%
|
100.7%
|
95.2%
|
126.6%
|
119.1%
|
| Otago |
34.4%
|
39.5%
|
45.5%
|
41.2%
|
62.2%
|
56.9%
|
| - Dunedin |
39.8%
|
44.1%
|
52.4%
|
46.0%
|
71.8%
|
65.1%
|
| Southland |
29.1%
|
34.5%
|
36.8%
|
32.4%
|
50.0%
|
39.4%
|
| - Invercargill |
31.9%
|
38.7%
|
38.7%
|
34.2%
|
57.5%
|
42.8%
|
No chart with that title exists.
57 Comments
"Roost Home Loan managing director Bernard Hickey says..." Feet in both camps, Bernard?
S'okay. And..."THE Gillard government has sounded out unions over steps to cool Australia's housing market, with measures that range from a new sales tax for investors sitting on large property portfolios, to curbing the popular strategy of using negative gearing for multiple properties...."
"If implemented, the moves would mark some of the biggest changes to property tax in nearly two decades, particularly in tackling the politically thorny issue of negative gearing, which provides billions of dollars of tax breaks to millions of Australians."
I've found that housing is in fact very good value in Tauranga The figures for average house prices don't take account of what the houses are actually like. In Tauranga there is a disproportionate (compared with other NZ centres) number of newer properties and the average size of a house in Tauranga is towards the top of the list in NZ . The thing that hits you when driving into Tauranga is how new the houses are. So when you factor in what you can buy, it is good value/ not expensive (so long as you check out it's not a leaky home property). And Tauranga is now such a growth area, along with an attractive climate and environment, that I have been surprised that the average cost of housing there is still very reasonable.
By outperformance you mean peoples propensity to borrow has become greater right? Because thats all thats happening, people are just borrowing more money which they can't afford. I think what you need to learn YL is that banks wants your interest payments, they don't care about anything else, and if they can put you in a mortgage for life they would. The banks want you to get a mortgage, and the housing market is a clever guise to make you think you will be better off with a mortgage, when in fact you probably won't.
We have an idea of what coming, MK. When mortgage rates rise the nice banks will contact their customers and say "Look. Here's what we'll do for you. We'll leave the weekly payments exactly the same, and just extend the term out a decade or two. Let's call that 30 year mortgage a 50 yearer, shall we, Hmmm.... ( banker grins and rubs hands together with the sincerity of Fagin, here)"
I reckon its coming.....with full recourse the punter has no choice....and really neither does the bank....if they have to write down too many losses and have mortgagee sales they are insolvent.
One piece of legislation I'd like to see is to allow jingle mail ie no recourse, then the bank has to pay attention and lend carefully....
regards
Coming to the markets near you soon steven.....social action groups....'SAG'.....let's 'sag' Westpac the call will go out...and their mortgage holders will mass the doors of the banks and refuse to pay any rate increase....now what would Westpac do if 75% of the banks mortgage victims refused to pay more and massed at the door.
Correct me if I'm wrong , but doesn't the Cullen Fund own Shell ? ...... If so , you're boycotting the NZ-Socialists-Subpublic's own stations , in favour of the profiteering wide-boys from Caltex & Mobil ............ And I don't need to remind you what scant regard BP appear to have for the environment .
Jingle mail has nothing to do with the US's housing mess some states have it, some dont. What has caused it is virtually zero lending rates, combined with fraudelent and preditory lending. It should be a two way street....right now the risk and impact is all piled onto the borrower.....pass some risk back to the bank...make them pay attention....
regards
Yeah what the banks are doing now is if you can't afford to pay your mortgage they are just compounding the interest and calling it a "mortgage holiday". All I can do is laugh ay, and people don't mind getting into more debt, I know, heres a concept some people should research that might be WAY too complicated its called TIME VALUE OF MONEY.
Thats right MP peoples ability to borrow drives the property market, we place selfish value on the right to occupy a space and all its incumbnents for which a disaster - economic, evironmental, health or relationship could so easily leave a life long debt. Living with debt has been likened to a prison sentence.
Our economies future lies in high educated/skilled, organised, productive individuals. The smart ones well be upwardly mobile and work in places where wages and cost of living are better value for time expended.
Do we fall in this bracket, cutting community services, increasing unemployment and debt.
God defend NZ.
Banks are doing bugger all loan holidays relaive to their mortgage portfolios and there isn't a glut of mortgage sales either.
And what mortgagee sales have to put up against the fact that Banks had bugger all mortgagee sales in 2003 to 2007 period. Was easy to refinance to other lenders or sell the house voluntary and get your equity out during that period.
Mortgagee sales have always been the last option for Banks as no one wins.
Yes the bank plays the game of manipulating the situation at thier own peril; bearing in mind the recent credit crunch where large financial institutions fell over to where we are now supressing the market and borrowing more and more . .
The issue is the high level debt in a volatile market - particulary property and interest rates.
What well be the sociological repeurcusions should an instrument be dropped during the economic juggling act?
The housing market is recovered in the American Mid-West, they are doing quite nicely with the commodities boom. Some parts of USA are tragic, but it is a big country and it's like saying, for instance, what is happening in the South Island automatically relates to Auckland.
No worries YL...in ten years time the recession will still be here...the dollar will buy you another 30 to 40% less on top of the 12.5% loss since 07...the $350 thousand millions of property debt will remain in place....the banks will still be milking the wealth from the country with the full support of the RBNZ and the govt.
But you will crow about prices not having fallen....and you will refuse to accept the 2021 price of $300ooo for the property which cost you $300ooo in 2007, has actually dropped by about 42.5%.
This view, Your Landlord, tells me it's just around the corner. I love the bit about 'rents falling' even in the face of falling property prices...."
"Wow !, That is quite a few revelations from one of the biggest names in Australian real estate. The market is dying... locals will not be back until rents become similar to mortgages"
http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/04/triguboff-sounds-the-alarm/
Kermit: Repeat after me..."We are a small island nation on the verge of bankruptcy ( and ,hey. 'They' aren't even our banks!), and what affects Bigger Islands than us, affects us." ( as well as other much Bigger and smaller islands...or is that Ireland..whatever). Sure we all have different economic drivers. But if you truely believe that The States; Portugal; Spain; The UK... ad infinitum, also 'didn't want their property markets to colapse ( let alone seeing it!)...then off you go..and fill up your goody bag with New Zealand property.
St. Nick : The $NZ touched US 80 cents overnight ! ...... The markets responded well to the way the government biffed a lazy $ 36 million at the Americas Cup yachties . ........ . JK and Wild Bill have bluffed the FX brigade into thinking that NZ is rolling in dosh ! .
...Oarsome with a capital " O " ........
........ now , what else can we throw some munny at , without care and forethought ? Call up Helen and Michael , they were the experts at this .
Hi Roger! (Correct post to reply to, this time!) Yup. That 80 cents must be a bundle of joy to our tourism operators and whatever is left of our exporters. Mind you, 75 Aussie cents will help. But let me think. If we have an OCR @ 2.5% and they have a OCR of 4.5%, who has the most scope to rise? and in which case ~ which currency should I buy? Does NZ stop altogether at parity, or do we just keep on borrowing? I guess we're about to find out!
New Zealand has the proud record of being only one of a handful of countries who have never defaulted on their debts ....... But I reckon that will be put to the test in the years ahead ...... Keep praying that commodity prices don't come down significantly anytime soon ......
Nick, your fervour at trawling the internet looking for economic disaster stories blinds you to the truth that in the diversified capitalist system much of the world enjoys, some countries benefit whilst others struggle and vice versa.
New Zealand has certain advantages the US or the UK don't. At present it is booming commodity prices amongst others.
What happens overseas won't necessarily happen here. We have difficulties, I don't deny, but to expect all the problems of Ireland, the UK, the EU and the US to be visited here is wrong.
What are your explanations for the booming economies of Asia, if disaster is supposed to happen everywhere?
I can handle 'being blinded'. After all, that what makes us savants special, and able to see what other don't! It's what enabled me to sell the family home against the toughest indicator that a man has ( she that must be obeyed), and have been shown correct over that last nearly 4 years now. If I read more into something than is actually there, then so be it. I'd rather miss 100% on the upside, than loose 100% on the down.
(PS: Those booming Asian economies are doing a Japanes re-run of the '80s'. They will have to slow or expolode! That's not good for NZ, either way)
St. Nick : Absolutely ! ... My comment had more than a touch of cynicism within it . I am usually optimistic about things , but I have little exposure to the $Kiwi . The debt levels being racked up privately and publicly in NZ seem alarming .
..... And I sold my home too ! Better value in property elsewhere ....... Even here in the Philippines , the economy is booming , and yet property is comparatively cheap . Currently looking at a 8 hectare mango block , for $NZ 85 000 . For another $ 25 000 I can get a decent home built on it , $ 50 000 buys a bloody good one , $ 100 000 gets you a mansion built here . ......... Not alotta local council bureaucracies to deal with ...... And plenty of tradesmen available for $NZ 10 per day .
It is you who are lacking in an ability to understand economics and markets YL. You are blind to the fact that when the Elephants drop a load, it doesn't pay to be the ant sized NZ economy running beneath their feet.
The "booming commodity prices" are a result of Bernanke's games and come the day he gets the 'bums rush' along with Obama....you will see that commodity prices reverse course bloody quickly.
The rip roaring Asian economies have cheap labour YL.....and they work bloody hard for long hours and don't bugger off on holidays.
Yup , Mr Landlord : Many Asian nations are emerging from decades of underperformance , due to political constraints ( socialism , etc ) ....... And there's no way the populence will accept going backwards to where they were ...... Commodities are booming for good reason , demand .... A touch of Mr Bernanke's inflation perking up , helps , but it's not the whole picture .
........... And to Mr Wolly's assertion about Public Holidays , we have plenty of them in Asia .. ........ Easter is Thursday through to Sunday , here ..... I don't think we can dump some of NZ's problems on the plentitude of Public holidays .
Kermit The Frog is exactly correct. The New Zealand house market operates in an entirely different way to many other countries.
The mass builders of America and the UK have had a different impact on their respective markets than the smaller "one-man" building operaters in New Zealand.
NZ never went into this GFC with a huge surplus of houses. The reduced numbers built since the GFC started are ensuring that no surplus will exist as the economy revives.
So...like...we don't build house to live in them? Or speculate with them? Or move about to and from them? Or borrow to buy them? In what way do we operate in an 'entirely different way'? And, yes, we did go into the GFC with a suplus of houses! Why do you think that we have handled the Christchurch 'shortage' so well? And read Chris_J's posts, from the ground in Chch - There is still NO shortage of accommodation down there. We have more supply that you can shake a stick at in New Zealand. Most of it is called a bach or a renter or any one of many other terms. And much of it's going to come out to market as 'a home for sale', as the cash from surplus items is needed.
The NZ housing market is very different to, say, the one in the US: there's no "jingle mail" rights here, no mortgage interest tax claim rights, there was very limited, if any, involvement in "sub-prime" scam with the local banks; moreover, for various reasons the cost of building or buying a new house was (and still is) much higher here than in the US, which resulted in no oversupply even before the GFC and in a steadily growing undersupply now, particularly in Auckland - hence the present dynamics of house prices and rent rates...
Forget this jingle mail nonsence, Alex13. It applies in a very few states and under certain circumstances. Most places are full recourse. And,yes, there is mortgage interest rate offset here - just not for owner occupiers. What do you think LAQC's were for? Subprime? What do you call the Bluechip debacle? There was, and is, oversupply in NZ! Pick up your Realtor or whatever R/E mag you get, and look through the 200 odd pages. That's part of oversupply for sale, right now` and that's just what's on the open market. There's oddles 'for sale' that aren't advertised.
Oh, and on that jingle mail bit. Just wait and see what happens in Christchurch if there is too much more delay. The banks are going to get inundated with keys! Bankruptcy for a few odd years, then back into it, is a better alternative to paying off a wrecked home that's under water- financially as well as physically.
The New Zealand house market operates in an entirely different way to many other countries.
Wait... Around 2007ish, back when the ridiculous property bubble was peaking, clowns such as yourself were gleefully shrieking about how NZ is just like all those other countries who were also conning themselves into everlasting penury... "It's the same here!", "Where they go, we follow", etc.
Now you're saying "We're different".
Once a sucker, always a sucker. It's because of people like you that Nigerian 419ers get rich. Your ilk buy 'v14gr4' and 'c14l1$' from email spammers. You buttonhole distant acquaintances at parties and attempt to sell them Amway and Herbalife. It's why you're always in a state of perpetual bankruptcy proceedings.
This country will never prosper while clueless and gullible financial gumbies such as "Your Landlord" continue to be allowed to make decisions of any kind.
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