Property investor and author Olly Newland talks here in this Double Shot interview about the outlook for the property market after a difficult 2010.
He says the bulk of the market stayed flat in 2010, contrary to forecasts of a 30% slump. He is now seeing some signs of confidence with rising average prices and volumes.
"People have looked back over the last 2 year and said to themselves: 'The world hasn't come to an end. The streets are still full of cars. The restaurants are still full of people. Business is still going on. Maybe this is all a bit overrated. Let's get on with it'," he said.
Newland said prices had gotten ahead of inflation between 2002 and 2007 and were now broadly flat, where it was still possible to make money. "That's better than falling," he said. He noted a similar pattern after a boom in the early 1970s.
He talked about investing in commercial retail property.
"My particular interest is in buying dead or nearly dead buildings and breathing life back into them. People are buying commercial property because the returns are better than the bank, and hopefully with a bit of capital gain," he said.
I asked Newland about investing in retail commercial property at a time when consumers are being more careful about spending.
"Retailers are always complaining, so you can't take too much notice of that, but if you're investing in retail and a shopkeeper leaves, there's usually a hundred more shopkeepers ready to give it another go. To me it doesn't make too much difference who's standing behind the counter, as long as they're paying me rent," he said.
I asked him about the change in the structure of retailing from small retailers to larger 'big box' chain stores.
He said 'destination' shops were springing up outside of the big box malls and there remained demand for tenants.
'Deckchairs on Titanic'
The government's GST increase and tax cuts that started from October 1 was a waste of time, Newland said.
"It was just reshufflling the deck chairs on the Titanic. I don't think people feel better off at all. People feel they're paying out on one hand and receiving on the other, and they're more or less square, so I don't think there's been much of a rebalancing at all."
Newland said the recession had hit the poorest hardest, with the mortgagee sales concentrated in the areas for poorer houses.
"There's a big disconnect between the poor areas and the better off areas. That's interesting," he said.
'Avoid the poor areas and Housing NZ'
"My advice to anyone investing in residential property is not to buy property in the poorer areas. That's a big mistake. People there are mostly beneficiaries and on basic salaries and simply can't afford more rent, and the costs keep on rising.
"If you're going to be a residential investor you're investing in better quality properties because you get a better class of enemy when you do that. I don't know why people buy poorer, little boxes because they provide bad returns and they're hard work."
I asked Newland about concerns expressed by landlords who had leased their properties out to Housing NZ, as reported by the Sunday Star Times' Rob Stock.
Newland said the government had been 'loony tunes' by discouraging rental property investors through reducing the ability to claim depreciation, while at the same time Housing NZ was desperate to use more private landlords.
He agreed that Housing NZ landlords who were struggling may put their property on the market, which may depress prices at the bottom of the market.
For more information on Olly Newland, go to his website here.
95 Comments
I wuz wondering where you got to...........GBH. thanks for all the great input this year....thanks for making me laugh when I cared not to..... May you and yours have a most excellent Festivus.....you have indeed been the stick that stirs the cocktail...all the best Matey.
p.s. I'm gonna post the Friday yarn today . I think you will appreciate it.
Yes Count : In 2010 we have laughed , we have cried , we have danced ........ Hickey's haircuts have made it a year to remember !
The rellies left yesterday ( visitors from NZ , including one brother ) , so am back on board the good ship interest.co.nz .......... May she sail into safe waters in 2011 ........... But I doubt it , the captain is a maniac depressive who gets Hickeysterical , and sinks into a slough of gloomsterisationalysing at the drop of an interest rate .
Merry Christovmas to you & your's old chum ! I'll raise a glass of Tanduay rum to you ........ Arrrrrrrr , Jolly Gummy says ........ " getcha stick out of the cocktail , folk are gonna drink that ye knows ! "
[ roll on the Friday yarn ! And I'll post up one for you ]
"People have looked back over the last 2 year and said to themselves: 'The world hasn't come to an end. The streets are still full of cars. The restaurants are still full of people. Business is still going on. Maybe this is all a bit overrated. Let's get on with it'," he said.
Really? He's right the world hasn't ended, and the doomsday predictions of some haven't arisen. But I don't think its quite as rosy as he makes out
Psychology does matter in economic outcomes, but if Ollie was trying to HELP the NZ economy, property spruiking is the LAST thing that WILL do it. We need to restore the "tradables" sector of the economy that shrunk 12% from 2001 to 2009, and the property bubble was like a cancer that played a major role in that. While the Clark govt was putting tourniquets around the neck of anyone who actually built anything, produced anything and who actually employed people, the property cancer was leeching investment away.
It's not just Hamilton, either.
The soundest economies in the country are to be found down South.
This recession, everywhere in the world, is EVERYTHING to do with inflated land values. It is not just mortgage debt, it is productivity. There IS such a thing as "market efficiencies", and when you forego these efficiencies in land markets, your economy is stuffed - simple.
The planners of the former USSR did it, now our planners are doing it. These people not only do not have the first clue about "markets", they have not the first clue about "scientific method" either. They are taking us back to pre-enlightenment thinking.
I just got sent a link to THIS good sense:
that link is a piece of spin.
It identifies "environment' as a concern folk express, then doesn't address it.
and it fails completely to identify or understand, that the growth it touts needs growth in energy supplied.
Still, if you believe a munificent deity knocked everything up a few thousand years ago, I guess you're just predilected to believe.
I know one thing - the writer of that simplistic presentation, still has to fill his/her tank to get home....... Maybe they should ponder that some....
You Know Bernard.......I can't help but spare a thought for Ollie in that his position on property has to remain as bullish as it is..........he doesn't know anything else....in a nutshell that's it.
As the time of the property barons nears it close ...at least for a generation or two perhaps.....he will be left to shuffle about expounding the virtues of property... while an ever diminishing audience half listens with indifference.
It's a bit like Santa really.............
he goes away when you just don't believe anymore....sniff )<:}
I don't know about articulating another point of view, Bernard, as it's just a repetitive mantra that Olly's chanted for years....tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming ..but Olly has been tone deaf for years now and there's little point in bothering with him anymore...albeit that he is one of lifes characters and a pleasant chap..happy Hannukah Olly.
Why would you buy commercial property now when we are staring down the barrel at least one more quarter of negative growth. My retailer mate says that more and more of his colleagues are going onto month to month tenancies when they come up for renewal and are talking about pulling the pin on their businesses in the new year if things do not pick up quick. Residential property other than the posh innner city areas of Auckland and maybe Wellington is going to reduce in value month by month until New Zealand incomes improve and people feel they are getting on top of their current debts and the ever growing cost of living. Have you had a renewal notice for a car insurance policy lately. They make your eyes water. How many people are currently running around without car insurance. The number must be increasing.
Wouldn't an intelligent and sensible person then wait and buy it when it is cheaper then and borrow less money SK. If we have more quarters of negative gdp asset values have to go down. Retail at the moment or lack of it is pointing to where the country is at economy wise. Having a house to live in and money in the bank just gets looking better by the day.
An intelligent and sensible person would back themselves and negotiate a bargin price no matter what the market is doing. Traditionally commercial buildings cap out at 10% so go for 15%. If you can't get it then don't buy it. It's up to the buyer to tell the vendor how much it's worth in this market. Find yourself some a debt ridden gem and steal it.
An intelligent and sensible person would have the skills and knowledge to prepare conservitive budgets and forcasts based on various occupancy levels at various rentals.
I doubt an intelligent and sensible person would rely solely on the word of a failed real estate agent and his broke arse retail mate.
Shorts for the record I never have to work again as I have sufficent in the bank and some good shares to live very well for the rest of my life. Not failed. Just intelligent enough to know it was all over in 07/08 and time to just have a home and cash and I have been proven right. My mate in retail. I think he would be worth near to what John Key is worth. Still tough for that business though which has to stand alone. If you can get a commercial at 15% the building or location is crap or the tenant/tenants or both. Dream on.
68% of households running up debt or drawing on their savings in Aussie. I'll suggest that the ratio is not too dis-similar here. Sooner or later the 'savings' built up in domestic property are going to have to come out for our populace to survive, because our wages base sure 'aint gonna save us!
"The Melbourne Institute household financial conditions index fell to 32.0 in December from 32.7 per cent in September...The household financial conditions index shows the proportion of households who are saving relative to the proportion of households who are running into debt or drawing on their savings."
In Auck West - as a first timer you might look at Te Atatu (esp peninsula), Avondale.
Non-recommended areas in my opinion would be Massey, Ranui.
This is old but most of the info (apart from the numbers) is relevant still:
While many of you whinge and whine Olly is geting on wth it and making money out of the losers who panic. He is 100% right and like Bob jones who is buying big, he will end up richer and happier then all you bunny rabbits hiding under your beds with fear. The opportunities in the market now must be the best in 20 years and in a couple of years from now you will all look back with regret. Olly has real steel up his back bone while the rest of you smuggeroos shake in your shoes.
It's great to see you back again The Man, albeit hiding behind yet another sock puppet account.
But we look forward to more of your utterly clueless drivel.
Are you still still pretending to own lots of property in Christchurch, or have you come up with some different lies now?
Guys like you are unbelievable!
It amazes me that you types are still out there leaping around thinking property is only in temporary hold until the next flame roars up.. ...as the Boss sang" you're dancing in the dark"...but keep spinning...why not...it's amusing!
Who's an enemy ?
Olly , I have just lost all respect I ever have had for you .
Given that tenants provide the return for your investment , why are they "ENEMIES" ?
How about treating them as customers ?
I have a tenant in a small office suite owned by my wife and I . He pays his rent on time , works hard and could afford to service a 100% mortgage with what he pays as rent. He chooses not to be an owner although I think he is not wise .
But I treat him as a valued customer and do everything to ensure he is a satisfied customer
Its never crossed my mind to see him as an enemy. You are an idiot to treat someone doing business with you and who contributes to your financial wellbeing as an enemy .
Kunst .... I have to agree with you and I can give an example ... a certain dairy co. in Australia was taken over by Kiwis and a mate of mine who knew guys who were working there said all the perks were taken away also overtime etc etc .... anyway the catch phrase they had for their Kiwi managment was "South Pacific Scotsmen" .....says it all.
There are a relatively high number of so called clever “Oldfarts” in this country, who make good money in the Real Estate business, acting for years as modern slave- drivers. No wonder Real Estate isn’t affordable for Kiwi’s anymore – welcome to “Chinaville”.
To move, re-educating these people into the real production sector would be a massive economic benefit for the country.
Olly Newland says "NZ property is great, things have not collapsed as predicted"
What? -Olly, that is because NZ has borrowed $300m a week to look good without addressing the underlying macroeconomic problems.
Any mug looks good with a credit card- until they have to pay it back .
The international financial markets are a mess. Too much debt and too much cheap Asian production to trade/ value add our way out of trouble at levels that will boost our GDP and GNP.
I'm afraid NZ is dying from the condition known as "Idiots in Power Suicide Syndrome"
Bill English says the government will pare back its spending in 2011 , after the economy recovers .............. Until then , all the seriously dopey policies 'like WFF , and all the unnecessary quangos ( Family Commission , MED , etc ) will remain untouched .
Pray for peace , goodwill to all mankind , and some positive GDP numbers .
I am astounded at the negative and crude comments made on this site about Olly who has proven to my satisfaction that he knows what he is talking about. A couple of years ago he showed me some of his portfolio and I was very impressed. . He owned large office and retail buildings in Otahuhu, Papatoetoe, East Tamaki, Newmarket, Wellesley St, Victoria St, Panmure, Levin, Beach Rd , and Karangahape Rd, as well as in Sydney all worth many millions of dollars. with large equities getting larger every day. With the help of his staff he also owned or managed dozens of rental flats and commercial properties in Wellington, Henderson, Penrose, Papatoetoe, Mangere, and Avondale running into many more millions. His tenants thought he was very firm but very fair.Those who behaved get well treated.Those who didn't lived to regret it.. As far as I know he still owns them and maybe by now even more. The tall poppy syndrome is still very much alive and well and you are looking at it.
Yeah renters are peasants ay, gotta treat the firm but fair, definetely best to treat the ones who behave well good and make the ones who don't live to regret it. To be honest it doesn't matter how you treat them they are just peasantry and aren't really fit to lick the dirt off my shoe, dirt renters.
The people that you are refering to Big Daddy are the backbone of this country, treat them with due respect.
Whether they're tongue in cheek or deadly serious, two of Olly's lines hint at a ruthless and self-serving attitude to being a landlord. If you treat tenants as though they're the enemy, you not only become adversarial in your dealings with them, but you also dehumanise them. This gives you "permission" to treat them with a lack of respect or dignity. When this happens you eventually get what you expected - tenants who hate your guts and will rip you off because they feel ripped off. You might call this a self-fulfilling prophecy.
And Olly's comment regarding poorer areas plainly exposes his complete lack of any social responsibility and the overriding determination to make as many bucks as quickly and as easily as possible. I'm not suggesting that there isn't some truth in his statement (landlording in poorer areas has its challenges), or that business isn't about profit - maybe even mainly about profit. Just that its clear his paradigm for making property decisions completely ignores any sense of social responsibility. To be fair though, Olly's honesty about his own attitudes and decisionmaking is at least a little refreshing. He makes no attempt to disguise his approach. Good on him for that. He says it as he sees it. (Just that I don't agree with what he believes)
Finally, regarding properties in lower socio-economic areas, my personal experience as a landlord for several years is that while lower cost housing does bring some challenges, there are at least as many irresponsible and/or non-paying tenants in well-to-do areas as in poorer areas. To advise us to steer well clear of such properties is the kind of lazy stereotyping and prejudice that creates unhelpful divisions in our society.
In summary, Olly may well be a highly "successful" landlord, but his underlying attitudes to the business would make me very reluctant to be a tenant in one of his properties.
Some of Ollie's humour may not translate to the written form here very well . I reckon he would be a firm / but fair sort of guy to deal with .
And he's done very well for himself . That success may rark up a few , the tall-poppy-syndrome , as Big Daddy says .
I've read some of Newland's books . And if I'd had the kahunas to follow his advice , I'd be a far wealthier Gummster , today .
But there's no guarantee that Ollie's advice will reap the same rewards from 2011 onwards . All trendlines for property that I've looked at show that prices are high when compared to the rental income .
They do say " Who dares , wins " . ........ But I reckon that is arse about . Winners usually dared to take great risks . But not all risk-takers won. ..... Uncle Olly did succeed . And good luck to him .
And if he is willing to impart some wisdom , I am smart enough to pin back me lug-holes and to listen .
Are you blaming " the system " for the lack of gumption shown by individuals ? At my former place of work , we had many breaks ( machinery failures , or gaps between jobs ) , and it was fascinating to me to see how individuals utilised their free time ( still being paid by the firm ) . ............ Coffee consumption and chat fests were de riguer . Some read newspapers . Just two of us always had an improving book in the locker , to read .
Give the caps lock a rest fella, I won't read your posts unless you do.
Must be Christmas and all the weekend warriors are off work now. Luckily I have been off for over a month:) As I sit on my deck with the million dollar view of the hauraki gulf in a lovely little rural pocket, all for a minimal rent, I am happy that my money is working for me else where and not trapped in an asset with a dubious future.
I will buy some of your commercial properties off you in 2012 Olly, but for half what they are going for now. Oh and that will be the ones with tenants in if you have any left, not the empty ones.
Got to agree with you there . Sadly my budget does not run to Moet , but I am supping a Marble Point 2008 Reisling ( Hanmer Springs ) here on Panay Bay , under the coconut palms .... 6 p.m. here . Sun has set .
And I wish more could enjoy a good life , and peace , this Christmas . And more would , if they worked as hard to get it as uncle Olly did .
Possible double dip recession. 0.2 % GDP growth. Everyone is paying off debt and not spending. Yeah Olly property is about to take off again and the earth is flat and pigs can now fly.
Why do you interview him Bernard? He must pay you a handsome some for you to publish this B.S.
It's obvious that some people can't read or hear for that matter - or more likely choose not to. Olly did not say that property was about to "take off." He clearly said it would remain "flat" for a while yet- years perhaps. but that profits could still be made in flat markets too. People like marct even make stupidity look good.
"Newland said prices had gotten ahead of inflation between 2002 and 2007 and were now broadly flat, where it was still possible to make money. "That's better than falling," he said. He noted a similar pattern after a boom in the early 1970s."
Im not a Fan of Ollie....
The comment above is right on the mark....we had a bit of a drop because values where around 30% over valued on the long term (30/40 yr) ave, and values are now flat waiting for the long term ave rise to meet the current over inflated prices...
'Avoid the poor areas and Housing NZ'
"My advice to anyone investing in residential property is not to buy property in the poorer areas. That's a big mistake. People there are mostly beneficiaries and on basic salaries and simply can't afford more rent, and the costs keep on rising.
"If you're going to be a residential investor you're investing in better quality properties because you get a better class of enemy when you do that. I don't know why people buy poorer, little boxes because they provide bad returns and they're hard work."
The return is dependant on the amount leveraged, like any business if the out goings are high the return is low....yes the rents are lower, but the restictions as to what the better class can afford is the piont to which they will buy instread, and is still tied proportionally to the bottom end.
As to "better class of enemy.." maybe not a PC statement,,but calls a spade a spade never the less and boils down to the same thing ...I disagree, the better class are often just as destructive and when they are costs are higher.
That the trouble with PC people, they jump on the non PC statement and forget or miss the whole piont of the statement/discussion...that no longer becomes relievent.
I would imagine an intelligent PC person may breifly piont out the offending statement, THEN debate the subject.
Property prices are still FAR above where they ought to be, which is around where they were when property was still affordable by those on average incomes...and that was more than a decade ago.
Your beloved property bubble burst around 2008, and is rapidly becoming little more than a drying stain on the ground. Nothing can salvage it, which is a good thing because all a resurgent property bubble can do is postpone a by-then far greater agony to come.
But poor Olly and Co...what do they have left? Nothing. Just hollow, wasted lives, clinging to shattered dreams and fading memories of The Miracle Years. Their obscene greed crushed the hopes and dreams of younger generations, but now the price is being paid, and eventually those younger generations will get their own hopes and dreams back, but minus the burdens of the "IT'S ALL ABOUT US!" baby boom generation.
I also think the BBs are a bunch of selfish old greedy money grubbers, but like most they're a product of their environment. Saying minus the burdens of the "IT'S ALL ABOUT US!" suggests that future generations will not act in exactly the same manner if given the same circumstances, and thats just being ignorant and self loathing for what you will eventually become.
The time is over where success stories are valued of how much money someone makes. In many cases money is made in selfish and corrupt manner driven by greed, even adding costs to societies – the taxpayer.
I respect people, who make money the honest way.
The way we make our money today needs to be seen in a wider context – respecting humanity/ environment etc.
The real, modern hero’s are the ones, who can live in modesty and they are often renters Mr. Newland– not the greedy.
Mr Newland the world is changing, changing every day - time is over to continue with a bloody, herioc Babyboomer Mentality.
.....and Olly I recommend to read and understand that in context with many of my other articles.
In interrelation to our issue and the creation of wealth it would be interesting what Olly has to say. Is he of the opinion that a large population of Kiwis should become wealthy and therefore more independent or should there be a rather elite group of people dictating the markets ?
Over the years I noticed there is an old Anglo Saxon slavery inclination in business existing here in NZ – quite strange – does the fact as a consequence not having enough diversity in our economy - lead over many years to an unbalanced economy in this country ?
Kunst sounds like the typical greenie tree hugging butterfly kisser who wants everyone to work for love "respecting humanity and the environment" and living "modestly". Strange how people with nothing and who have achieved nothing want others to be down at the same level as them. Olly has created thousands of jobs over the decades, and at this moment, I am told, is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on a commercial property by renovating it, and keeping a myriad of plumbers, electricians, painters etc in work and well fed. How many jobs have you created kunst? I bet you are another frustrated state paid leech, content to spit abuse at the shakers and movers .
Those who can, do.
Those who cannot, lecture.
And those who cannot lecture, lecture lecturers.
Yes, you are right Bigdaddy – I’m amazed how much you know about me – I’m a typical young (green) “Hugging Bird Kisser” and beside I work for the IRD - and I get you after Christmas – my boy. Send me an email with your GST number ?
Without a bloated Real Estate Industry we most certain have less “Chair Polishers” - but a healthy Production Industry with 10’000 more skilful and highly educated NZjobs –helping to reduce the massive account deficit, youth unemployment, etc. - the positive list is almost endless.
This is the broken record that gets played by everyone who makes money unethically. Of course someone who has money spends it and therefore employs others, you will find Hitler employed a great many folks.
Do you think Olly has "created" wealth by being the one who owns those buildings and collects that rent? Would the buildings and rental income vanish if Olly was not around? Would the tradesman servicing those buildings no longer be required?
I recall owning shares in Olly's company Landmark Properties Limited,which were not a good investment.
That apart,In my opinion it is a good time to buy property.
Residential bottomed out in Autumn 2009 and rural in Winter 2009.
The governments of my lifetime continue to favour property investment rather than running a productive business.
They impose less taxes on property than other western countries.
Until the playing field is evened out,people in this country will heavily skew their investments towards property.
That is why Bill English's brother has just bought his seventh or eighth ? farm.
Thanks and commendations from Melbourne:
As a recent arrival at this news site I have found interest.co.nz informative. Every now and then surprising gems pop up in the occasional post that are 4 and 5 days ahead of the main business media-publications here in AU where its usually reported after the fact while it was noted before the fact at interest.co.nz. As a coal-face economist and global trader I find that helpful so keep visiting here. I just need you contributors to keep the little gems coming.
When BusinessSpectator commenced I was a regular contributor. BusinessSpectator has become a "paid for" influence peddler, toeing the sponsors/advertisers line. Now, articles that conflict with the sponsors line dont get published. It is biased with readers getting a censored viewpoint. Now one is lucky to get 1 in 50 published. So, I say to you regular contributors, treasure your freedom here and try not to abuse it.
@ Kunst: You are correct, you are consistent. Keep banging that drum. I agree with you. Have occasionally been of a mind to post a suggestion that you articulate specific recommendations of how you would get NZ into production and out of speculation and investing in inflation. What industries? Any ideas? Spill them. I think your ideas would be worthwhile.
@ PhilBest: One of the best, most thought provoking articles I have seen for a long time. Item from 20 November 2010. I would vote it tops. Item on the influences and pressures on land, and house prices, and transport, and distribution thereof. Interest.co.nz should frame it and give it headline prominence.
Thank you for your support iconoclast.
My earlier article below describes best what industries - developing sustainable, light industrial industries, including research, education& training.
We have a great NZeducation system, but no decent NZjob opportunities for the national workforce and as one of many negative consequences - youth unemployment and students numbers are rapidly growing. The result and subsequent costs are massive - in fact in the billions for the taxpayers.
Minister Hide, Brownlee and Joyce stop importing most everything and legislate for full employment and better jobs preferably in the production sector. This could easy be achieved, allocating contracts for NZcompanies to build infrastructure needs in sectors such as Telecommunication, Energy, Transport, etc.
Ministers especially now in difficult times a proactive government must lay the basics, encouraging innovation, entrepreneurial skill, feeding the private sector, so the free market, export opportunities, but also the national security are maintained.
Ministers, investing in our NZyouths.
Small countries have to think small, but with big ideas - a "100%pure NZeconomy"
"NZ NEEDS TO CREATE A SUCCESS CULTURE, BUSINESS CULTURE, WEALTH CREATION CULTURE, RESPONSIBILITY CULTURE, DILLIGENT CULTURE...."
Asset inflation isn't wealth creation, it simply creates a charge elsewhere in the economy. In otherwords someone else creates the wealth like the renter, or the ratepayer who builds extra roads for the developer or who picks up after the Ltd builder of a leaky home.
Think Olly is just having a laugh and trying to wind all the anti-property bloggers up. Things will not be as rosy as Olly suggests but will be nowhere as grim as many on this site predict.
I 've noticed there has been a danger this year of quite a few people on this site feeding off each other and getting into a doom and gloom mindset. Of course if one constantly selects negative factors then that becomes the 'logical' conclusion, but in reality NZ has some good positive factors going forward as well for 2011. Guess this time next year we will be able to judge how it has gone.
Good on yer , muzza :
In his daily " Top 10 " this year Bernard has presented 250 or so stories of financial horror and armageddon ........... And how many of them have caused the world to melt down , again ?
Where is the double-dip recession ........... The collapse of the EU ........ The collapse of the $US ............. The collapse in Australian house prices , or Kiwi ones ...........The soaring yields on US Treasuries ............... The surge of oil above $US 100 / barrel ........... The return to the Gold Standard ............... ???????????
Somehow , we muddled through .
There are real storm clouds on our economic horizon ....... But hasn't that always been the case !
Do you require stronger glasses ? Neither me nor muzza posted a blog that should cause such an idiotic response . ................ Did you bother to read what either of us actually said ? Or did you just lash out automatically , because we dared to suggest that the world ain't as f*cked as many here purport it to be ?
Associated Press release their " Top 10 " list of the world's biggest business stories of 2010 :
1 : US Economy Struggles : Growth remains slow , and unemployment is still high .
2 : Gulf Oil Spill : BP's debacle in the Gulf of Mexico
3 : China's Rise : China passes Japan as the world's second largest economy
4 : Real Estate Crisis : USA housing remains depressed
5 : Toyota's Recalls : 2 recalls of 10 million vehicles seriously tarnishes the image of Toyota
6 : GM's Comeback : The IPO raised $US 50 billion to re-pay the government bail-out
7 : Financial Over-haul : US Congress adds 2000 pages to banks rules and regulations
8 : European Bail-outs : $ 145 billion for Greece , and $ 90 billion for Ireland . Ouch !
9 : 500 Million on Facebook : Facebook re-writes how the social world communicates
10 : iPAD Mania : Apple launches the iPAD , which eats into laptop sales , and spawns a host of copycat " slabs " .
............. Golly gosh Bernard : AP reckon that the year wasn't all bad . What do they know ........ I'll bet that they didn't even double-shot you for your view ...... Sods !
[ silly Gummster : This blog was meant to be in the Friday Top 10 : Sober up dude .... ............ as soon as the booze is all gone ! Ha ..... ]
Retailers are always complaining, so ignore them....
I see empty mall shop fronts......I see empty shops.....I see fewer ppl shopping.....eftpos numbers? Warehouse, used to be on boxing day you couldnt get near it....at 10am i parked within sight of the entrance......
Sure Olly ignore the ice damage....its nothing......
Sure I see spots where "one woman" clothing shops are doing good business....the ones doing the best are the pre-loved stores.....now the women around me openly talk of the great stuff they are getting in such places......
2011 I think is shaping up for at best a flat year.......IF nothing goe pear shaped in so many probable hot spots, from Irelend, US States, Japan....etc etc....so much potential for mayhem.....
regards
GBH you and Muzza must be on salary like our members of parliament as you and Muzza have simply no idea what it is like out there in the area of retail,small businesses/professional offices where people actually put up their own capital,borrow money and employ the majority of New Zealanders. It has never been so hard for the majority of them and as the ANZ economist says in the New Zealand Herald this morning many will be closing down in the new year as the country has simply shut down. You can only sell stuff other than food if you discount it to a price where the only winner is the shopper.You can only do that for so long and then you have to shut the doors unless you have very deep pockets and how many retailers in NZ are in that position. My prediction is more small businesses closing,more people on the dole as going to Australia is not an option like it used to be as they have similar problems and more pressure on all types of asset values as people try to get rid of their debt. Rising food power and petrol prices will only add to the burden. John Key what are you going to do to stop the current slowing down of the economy which has to be in a technical recession.It is just a matter of how long it is going to last. Bring back Piggy. He will sort it out.
Never had a salary , ex ..... Always been on struggle street , nose to the grindstone , until one fortuitous day when a partner with Thompson Brindall Stockbrokers ( Adelaide , SA ) raided my wallet , and taught me the benefits of the ASX ........ Life has been on the up & up ever since . You don't have to be smart to do well on the stock-exchange , if the Gummster can do it , anyone can .
Small businesses are notorious for their short life expectancy . That has always been the case . But the majority of people are employed in a myriad of small firms , not in a few behemoths such as Fletcher Building . And that is why the " too big to fail " mantra in Europe and the USA , is arse about .
Governments would do well to set in place fiscal settings that encourage small businesses and start-ups . Reducing compliance costs and red-tape . Allowing self-insurance outside of ACC , etc .
Small is beautiful ..... Too important to ignore .
Good on you GBH. I have been following shares since before the 87 crash and they have been good to me. If I was you I would probably turn some of those aussie shares into cash if you have not already done so as Australia is currently turning in both the area of retail and housing. Also China seems to be trying to get on top of its inflation problem by raising interest rates and this will mean less buying of commodities from Australia. In New Zealand I believe there are some very good stocks such as Ebos, Ryman and Abano which are all very dependant on the rising number of baby boomers and their health needs. If people were looking for a good spot to invest in some shares with a future it has to be pretty safe to do in in the area of health products and retirement villages.
ex : If NZ had a better balanced economy , we'd not have so many articles by Olly Newland , and his ilk . But as Bernard Doyle explained , the NZX appears to be in a death spiral . And that limits legitimate options for investors . So they turn in droves to finance companies . Indeed the whole country appears to have developed a property fixation .
By way of contrast , Germany has less than 50 % homeownership . They have no minimum wage . And they are the powerhouse economy of Europe . Their's is a strong sharemarket . The German people appear to value ownership of productive assets ( privately owned or publicly listed companys ) more than ownership of a house .
Weird buggers , aren't they !
Gummy bear is talking arrant nonsense. While it may be true that 50% of houses in Germany are in the hands of home owners, who does he think owns the other 50%? The tooth fairy? In fact around one third of the 36 million houses in Germany are owned by private investors. That's 10 million private investors who have backed the notion of residential investment as an option. The other third is owned by a mixture of private corporations, housing co--ops and the State. And of course that includes East Germany with its massive hang over from Communism theology. Residential investment is alive and well in Germany as it is in most other Western countries not to mention most of Asia.
Of course in cases where a large population isn’t wealthy enough and depend on banks and dealing in properties economies are unbalanced as a consequence. Shifting 50% of all real estate agents into the production sector would help next to many more advantages, reduce our account deficit.
With the current development driving up prices (see Olly’s statement- stupid) we are increasingly tenants of rich foreigners in our own country – HA !
Walter,
thought of you when I read this post http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2010/12/americas-job-creation-mach…
Anyone who thinks that shares are better than property needs their head read. With shares you have no control, the require daily vigilance, you are at the mercy of dopey directors, there is no leverage, they can dissapear overnight, the dividends are pathertic and you are taxed twice. As a small part of a mixed portfolio maybe, but shares are for the benefit of gamblers and inside traders.
I need my head read ! ...... But I think it will only be a short story .....
..... If a Gummster of superbly average IQ can make alot more munny out of shares than property , then anybody can ........
.... Or maybe I'm just less pathetic on the ASX than I am in property ?
[ ........Cherry hon , more mango slushy , sweetie ............. Cheers !...... ]
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