A decline in activity was evident at the latest housing auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, although the sales rate remained remarkably stable.
Interest.co.nz monitored 445 residential property auctions around the country over the week of March 29 to April 4. That was down from 531 the previous week, and well down from the summer season peak of 601 in the last week of February.
The drop in auction numbers was not unexpected because February and March are usually the busiest months of the year for real estate activity and numbers usually start to decline in April.
The fact that school holidays, the Easter break and Anzac weekend all fall in April this year is likely put a further dampener on auction activity in the second half of this month.
However, the sales rate has been unaffected by the fluctuations in auction numbers so far, with 164 properties selling under the hammer at the latest auctions, giving an overall sales rate of 37%.
The sales rate has has been stuck on 37% for five of the last six weeks, the only exception being the week of 22-28 March, when it dipped to 36%.
That is a remarkably consistent sales result over the busiest time of the year for auction activity.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions covered by interest.co.nz, including the prices of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
The table below gives a summary of the regional results.
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39 Comments
So the recent, lacklustre rebound in property prices by a +1 to +3%, in just a few regions, over the last 3 months is done, finished.
The Banksters much talked of property upturn, has shot its wad, sheeit the bed and now headed well south.
With world markets now in crash mode, commodity prices tanking all round, job losses mounting, fully expect by year end of 2025, for the NZ property ponzi to be "back on track " to be down another -5 to -10%.
Still seeing the same houses sitting vacant for 18months......capitulation phase of the leveraged, quitting these dross "investments" will drag this soggy market deeper into the smelly bogs of Riverhead.
On the much more positive side, the recent rains in the North, have the Geckos crops booming, soil moisture healthy and fire danger now low.
NZ won't starve during this now roiling general market crash;) Happy days!
Yup, it looks like all bets are off, global recession looking more likely than not. Spare a thought for the heavily indebted left to navigate uncharted waters.
It may only be the start of a steep decline. It certainly is a 'Black Swan' event. Everyone should be worried, especially savers.
From this mornings brief by David Chaston.
The reign of Orange coloured acid rain has just begun. It is most corrosive to leveraged gambling, and there is a lot of speculeverage in the US stock market.
Question. Who saw this coming and swapped their kiwisave into cash/save haven position?
On the 25th of Feb, and posted on here, was meet by the normal "time in the market" BS from the Spruikers,
The market was overvalued, retail and consumer in the US where screwed. Lots caused this crash not just Trump.
Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250404/
The U.S. economy and financial markets rest on a house of cards. The faith in a New Era is exemplified by a recent advertisement from Robertson Stephens, which asks “Do you really believe that technology can make hundreds of years of economic rules obsolete? So do we.” Well, count us out. One of the most devastatingly accurate of these economic rules is this: anytime the term “New Era” becomes widely accepted, get the hell out of the stock market.
The most reliable leading indicators have moved to a clear warning of U.S. recession. This signal includes our own composite of leading indicators (credit spreads, maturity spreads, S&P 500, and NAPM Purchasing Managers Index), as well as reliable confirming indicators such as housing starts and real liquidity growth. Our investment position does not require a recession to be effective, and we do hope that these warnings are incorrect. In a stock market priced for rapid earnings growth and economic perfection, the downside risk will be extreme even if this economic slowing stops short of an actual contraction.
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., Hussman Investment Research & Insight, November 15, 2000
Please explain how "time in the market" is BS...🤯
There’s no dispute "time in the market" is a sound principle if applied to diversified, liquid investments.
But kiwi property investors like to misuse the phrase to justify heavy leverage in a single, illiquid asset class.
In the face of an orange swan event, time in the market won’t bail them out if they’re overexposed.
Good answer, bold statement by ITG.
Orange swan is brilliant 😂, will be fascinating viewing that's for sure.
"Time in the market".........is just for the financially inept, as the average, garden variety Kiwi is. Sad but very true.
It lauded as the "time safety net", covering up for the last 5 years of overleverage property speculator, buying up sprees.
- This barbed wire wrapped shoe, is yet to be kicked up the jaxie of the haplessly overleveraged, by the banks. It's just a matter of time .... tic,toc.
I got out of the worlds share indexes before the GFC became public/crash and again out of the world share indexes in 2023......yes I missed those very good gains to years end of 2024. But I still cleared 5% gains in cash funds.
- Will now look at getting back in, after the -30 to -40% market wipeout has washed through.......late 2025/2026 ?
"Timing the market" is far more profitable for those who have the benefit of hindsight, in advance, which of course none of us have.
"Time in the market".........is just for the fanatically inept, as the average, garden variety Kiwi is. Sad but very true.
Just trying to think how many financially abundant types I know who make lots of short term decisions guided by news headlines and hot takes.
Not many, if any.
It's all very, very, very simple Y and P.
When earnings detach in a large way, from the asset price: Get Out of Dodge!!
Especially relevant for Property and Shares!
At what net yield should I buy residential real estate?
Whenever Gecko tells you to (which is probably never), because he gas 20/20 vision in hindsight.
But if you cannot put a net yield number in the spreadsheet how can you value future cashflow?
Its an investment right?
Good question.The answer is by adding value. That's the bit that most are people are not willing to learn or deal with.
Surely real estate investing is just buying a new subdivision spec house and expecting to make an 8% return.
And buyers obtaining their "dream home" are making highly logical decisions based on the rental yield of the property, and not things like location, style, etc.
Well Ywahtever......
7% yield would be the bare minimum.
Fools have accepted much less and have financially burnt themselves alive.
When earnings detach in a large way, from the asset price: Get Out of Dodge!!
Especially relevant for Property and Shares!
Just really bad generalized information. If I bailed out on anything I was temporarily upside down in......
I'd be spending a disproportionate amount of my time hoping someone else got to be broke too
I'd be spending a disproportionate amount of my time hoping someone else got to be broke too
Yes, unfortunately in the big wide world at 4.31am on any given night, some people would.
Or like clockwork, every Saturday morning as the sun rises.
Every week
For years
😂🤣👍
Your interest in my waking hours is amusing.
Your imagination seems to want restless nights and fears of suffocation via debt.
The reality is probably too R rated for these noble pages.
Day trading is not timing the market, its day trading.
Being long for 6 years then flat for 1 is not based on news headlines and hot takes, its based on long term indicator ratios like average P/E of the index, breadth of market. anyway , enjoy your time, in the market right now, Nasdaq hit -20% from peak, and s&p500 was down 16% from peak... good time's
In recent quarters, the 94-year old billionaire refrained from major trades, instead building a cash hoard to a record $334.2 billion at end 2024.
Question. Who saw this coming and swapped their kiwisave into cash/save haven position?
In around 2008 it was apparent that the trajectory was headed in one direction, the only variable being the timing, and it seems like the meth pipe is being passed around to speed things up
Where and how the chips are going to fall is a question very much in the air. With a couple of potential scenarios:
- if the world manages to mostly hold itself together, a square meter of dirt in NZ is going to be a relatively valuable commodity
- cool heads are absent, then all this posturing is pissing into the wind
Buyers who stumped upto the Property Ponzi Podium over the last 10 years and paid more than the already high multiple of 5xDTI, and incomes are now under pressure from persistent inflation, job insecurity, will need to consider all options in the comming months to keep the boat afloat.
The trade wars are unleashed!
Last 10 years now...I enjoy how the story grows NZG
Is anyone else having consistent issues with the commenting feature?
yeah its painful, not as painful as being a forced seller in Auckland is about to become.... all those empty townhouses are now dead man walking. Banks foreclose in global recessions to protect balance sheet. Think 1989 after the share crash, well NZ is more invested in RE then it ever was in shares.
70% of lending in NZ Banking system is to residential RE.
Think about that for a moment and enjoy your day.
It's bloodbath on financial markets, that will soon pass onto housing..
Which fool would want to pay for an asset when job losses could blowout
Or invest in a business
Or hire more staff
Or literally any substantive financial decisions
The answer is those with the means or risk appetite
So on a completely side topic
What's going to happen to the NZ Property market now?
From this price point, " underperform" might prove an epic understatement...
Jobs.
If I was at RBNZ I would be cutting 50bps this week, the tsunami sirens should be blaring loudly.
Every historic global share market crash has been bad for NZ.
If I was at RBNZ I would be cutting 50bps this week,
Then sit back nervously watching as our currency tanks, then reverse course to protect it...
its going to tank anyway, if it does not we may be in even more trouble.
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