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Prices down and stock levels rising as 2025 gets underway for Barfoot & Thompson

Property / news
Prices down and stock levels rising as 2025 gets underway for Barfoot & Thompson
Barfoot sign

Barfoot & Thompson has started 2025 with a surge in new listings and total stock for sale, while selling prices headed lower.

The real estate agency, which is the biggest in the Auckland market, received 1361 new listings in January, the highest number for the month since 2021.

Sales also pushed higher, with 700 sales becoming unconditional in January, the highest number for the month since 2022.

However, the total stock of properties for sale was also up sharply, rising to 5383. That's a 14% compared to January last year, putting total stock for sale at its highest level for the month of January since 2011.

The rise in stock was accompanied by a fall in selling prices.

Barfoot's average selling price in January was $1,053,446, down $133,016 (-11.2%) compared to December, which was the lowest it has been in any month of the year since October 2020.

January's median selling price of $950,000 was down $50,000 (-5%) compared to December..

The combination of lower prices and rising stock levels adds further strength to the growing mountain of evidence the 2025 housing market will be strongly in buyers' favour.

"The focus of buyers in January was the lower price segments of the market with 56 per cent of our sales in the month taking place in the under $1 million market," Barfoot & Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said.

"Our average number of monthly sales in the under $1 million market during 2024 was 51 per cent," he said.

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93 Comments

I'd predict 200 comments.

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17

300

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9

I hope the Spruikers got a good nights sleep, its going to be a very tough year.

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15

Might as well put a massive neon sign up in Auckland: OVERCOOKED OVERSTOCK SALE - all offers considered. 

 

"putting total stock for sale at its highest level for the month of January since 2011.

The rise in stock was accompanied by a fall in selling prices."

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10

They'll be dreaming about bottoms again

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4

I’ll predict further falls in interest rates …..

TTP

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4

Comment inventory rising even as demand falls.

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7

popcorn, sweet popcorn! anyone need any popcorn? 

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10

One please 

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9

The crash has begun,  might need more than 🍿 

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0

The crash has begun,  volume comments is irrelevant 

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1

That’s a big drop. Good.

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22

Spruik that.

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13

average selling price has nothing to do with median house prices.

Highest number of sales since 2022, buyers coming to the market.

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10

I can feel you seething from here. 

If you read the article you'd note the median is down 50k as well.

Sales don't matter if they are lower in proportion to new listings.

 

 

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23

If you actually read the article you will see you misrepresent what it says.

If you read the article you'd note the median is down 50k as well.

Should be corrected to 

If you read the article you'd note the median sale price is down 50k as well.

Median sales, not median price.

January's median selling price of $950,000 was down $50,000 (-5%) compared to December.

That only indicates people are buying below median properties.

As usual you are twisting data to fit your narrative.

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6

Actually if anything these prices are still artificially too high as if sales were at normal levels (ala 2015 to 2019) much more price discovery would be happening and the median even lower.

By the way HPI for December looked abysmal too if that is your fallback.

I know you are mad that your equity is being beaten up but gotta call a spade a spade.

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22

What makes you think 2015 to 2019 are normal levels?

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4

2015-2019 didn't have ridiculously low interest rates as they did between 2020 and 2022.

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8

2015-2019 prices would provide a great opportunity for investors.

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2

Wow, I’ve got to admire your commitment to the cause. 

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11

Rookieinvestor =/= Masterspruiker 

 

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11

Angry from Mayfair 😊

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1

It's always good to be cautious with small, noisy data series. 

The self-reflection is whether you are similarly cautious when the data supports your hypothesis and/or investment position.

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4

Asking price only gives an indication of sellers beliefs about the market.

Sale price tells us where the market actually is.

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5

or what mix of properties were sold. The HPI is the only metric worth paying attention to

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5

correct.

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2

Median is still useful.  At least better than average.

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6

Only because there's a lack of data published on underlying trends on housing types. (regional figures ok)

HPI is like a stock market index

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1

January's median selling price of $950,000 was down $50,000 (-5%) compared to December

Must be some healthy rounding going on with these stats. 

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9

Not necessarily, the median will always be an actual sale value and actual sales are quite often round numbers. 

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5

Good point

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1

The desirability of Auckland property continues to deteriorate.  Why?

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8

More and more apartments and townhouses coming online which is driving down the average sale price I assume? Like for like property probably hasn't changed all that much. Just a guess.

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6

No chance these are independent markets. Prices change at the margin. The townhouses will be bringing down everything else

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1

I wouldn't pick that.  All of Auckland overpriced relative to rentals.  Everybody thinks prices are falling other than theirs.  The fundamental problem is that supply is overtaking demand

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6

Auckland deteriorates.  Why?

Because Auckland got more ridiculous than the others and is now just returning.

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7

I can recall one commentator on here warming repeatedly that unless FHB purchase before Xmas they will have missed this cycle and be locked out of the market. Be careful who you listen to. 
 

Price could keep falling all this year with buying conditions improving for FHB as prices drop, interest rates drop a bit more (no expecting much more) and their deposits increase while more stock keeps coming into the market. 
 

Don’t be quick. The best time to buy a house is not always yesterday. Sometimes patience does pay.

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31

Listening to spruikers is like listening to REAs. 

Don't.

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19

I wouldn't listen to DGMs either. 

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7

Those who prophesised the demise of the property ponzi have been proven correct time and again. 

It would be prudent to start listening.

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19

It would be irresponsible to listen to anyone here.

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6

There are some smart cookies here.

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13

Yep no doubt about it, I still wouldn't solely listen to what they say without doing my own research and due diligence.

They might just expose me to something I'm not aware of.

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3

They might just expose me to something I'm not aware of.

Like reality? 

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3

Conspiracy theorists.

Do not worry Agnostium, you're not one of the "Smart Cookies".

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0

😂

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0

Many of them were only correct about 15 years later.

In almost all cases, house prices are still higher now than they were then they first started their prophecies. 

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2

Is is actually impressive, even if perverse, how hard the government and RBNZ have worked to keep it going this long. Auckland was already recognized internationally as being in a bubble in 2006 - and the government allowed that to spread to the rest of the country.

Then again, when they recieve multiples more than the average earner, and own multiples more houses, it's not surprising.

MPs salaries should be indexed to other public servants - like teachers, police and nurses.

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5

MPs went all in speculating on property, and ran policy to support their investments. Latest iteration being our present PM.

Our housing crisis is a moral one before a policy one.

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3

The collapse isn't over yet.

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2

Barfoot's average selling price in January was $1,053,446, down $133,016 (-11.2%) compared to December, which was the lowest it has been in any month of the year since October 2020.

Ouch, thats a huge drop !  Will be interesting to see if the HPI confirms this. 

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11

I reckon waiting until April's figures including February and March before identifying a trend. Typically is the 2nd busiest time of the year so good indicator of future months.

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2

True thinker.  But I also listen a bit - a bit -to any indication like this.

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0

Last week was hard for DGMs on interest, this article has put a spring back in their shuffling step though... they love their averages if it show house prices dropping.

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3

In the bible it says to love thy enemy. Perhaps to find peace Nifty you could trying sending love to those you disagre with instead of sending hate towards them in nearly every comment on this forum (DGM this..DGM that…DGMs are wrong…DGMs won’t like this). 
 

I’ll send you my love via this forum and hope  you find peace in a world full of doom gloom merchants who want an affordable housing for themselves or for their children. 

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5

Second leg down I'd say. Recovery is still a long way off with no obvious reason for one in sight.

Is anyone involved in policy doing any actual research and analysis to prepare NZ for the possibility of further dramatic falls? Or is 'talking up the market' just too important?

Any genuine ideas here for what we might do if confronted with the kind of past falls seen in Ireland, Japan, Spain, etc? Some kind of policy to protect homeowners without necessarily bailing out investors and speculators for example?

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12

Yes I am involved in actual research and analysis. To remedy pretty much all the issues NZ is experiencing, it is all pointing towards an abolishment of central government and compulsory euthanasia at 70.

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5

Could I suggest that you just give them a one way ticket to Australia Those that can afford to live there without a pension can leave.  Then euthanise the rest. 

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1

Australian house prices are far dearer than NZ in the cities.

If you want to live in undesirable places then you will buy better.

 

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Nah, they're not. Like for like Aussie is not as expensive as here.

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4

Without comparison of type: by the numbers he's mostly right.

Oz median is ~10k higher than NZ, and average ~40k.

But I only say mostly right because these numbers are only nominally 1-4% dearer, which doesn't make them "much" more expensive.

But take incomes into account, and the type of property, and Oz is much cheaper. (Their median earner would be in our upper quartile).

They only seem more expensive to someone locked onto a NZ-earnings perspective.

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1

They are far dearer in the Cities than NZ without doubt.

Australia obviously much larger and the ones in the wop wops drag the average down majorly.

For example, you can buy an apartment in NZ city for 700k or less, go to Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane and you will be paying a million plus unless you are miles out.

At the end of the day if you think things are better in Oz, then go and check it out.

The Ozzies are all complaining about everything over there you only have to watch Sky News Australia.

On average they are paying on average $50k more interest than they were previously, so you have to gross $70k more be in the same position.

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0

@ The Man 3. The thing is you can't compare Auckland vs Sydney for lifestyle and house prices.
Auckland is nowhere like Sydney. It should be Auckland vs Adelaide for similar population. Or at a stretch, Auckland vs Brisbane.

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Of course you can not compare Auckland with Sydney for lifestyle and I have been saying for ages that Auckland is not a place to live for a good lifestyle.

The thing is that people that live in Auckland believe that it is so good when things have definitely deteriorated over the last decade or so.

I do not see Auckland as the measurement of the prices of houses in NZ as we all know that is not what they crack it up to be.

 

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comment of the day so far! While I wouldn't say those types of falls are a given, knowing our policy makers are prepared for that possibility would be great.
How could you fairly handle homeowners and investors seperately?

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1

One of the Aussie parties had an interesting monetary proposal for this. If more welfare must be handed out, they suggested it was important to avoid it simply being more welfare to property. Thus, the proposal was something along these lines:

  • An equal lump sum to every adult, in specific formats / conditions on purpose. E.g. let's say $100k. Created by the usual money printers.
     
  • For property owners, this would be immediately applied to reduce the debt on their property.
     
  • For renters / non-owners, this would be - if I remember correctly - in the form of some government bond or other. Something along these lines.

The details are hazy, I'd have to search it out again, but they essentially trying to avoid the massive welfare wealth transfer that occurred through FLP and similar over COVID (shoveling $10 billion of taxpayer money at property, reducing the value of wages and savings). They were aiming to benefit all not just property owners, and to use the money printing to at the same time reduce the amount of debt and cancel that money back out of circulation...The details in my memory are very sketchy, unfortunately.

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1

What happened to the govt bank deposit insurance scheme? Did National scrap that or is that still coming?

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1

Ban pornography.

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1

Anyone want to buy my rental liability?

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13

After the GFC an American friend of mine got divorced.  She had to pay her ex husband $45,000 to agree to KEEP the house (with mortgage) and not sell it.  It was so deep in negative equity that any sale would have resulted in both of them ending up bankrupt.

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7

Fantastic news.

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6

Back to the pre-Covid flatline? ... [read that again. use the graphs at the bottom of the article.]

Good.

And thanks to wage increases between 2019 and now ... Just a tad more 'affordable' from pre-covid to boot.

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2

We are all doomed Captain Mainwaring 

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2

As the superbly talented Jenny Morris once sang, "It's only the beginning......."

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1

Reality is that the prices are still well out of kilter for affordability and value for what you are getting in Auckland and has been fir a long time.

Just doesnt make sense to be paying Auckland prices inflated by immigration .

Posters continue to go on about dropping housing prices but far from the truth in the happiest city in Nz, Christchurch.

 

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2

You sound so desperate just like Rookie.

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10

great contribution.

/sarc

ask your grandson what /sarc means.

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2

Ex Agent, quite the opposite, housing investment doing well and providing accommodation to those that require it.

Putting money into Term Deposits is just aiding Banks to lend out to more investors.

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2

Saintly. But for landlords, those houses would simply disappear from existence.

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2

Nah. Chch follows at a lag (caused by the post-earthquake supply surge). It’ll be down this year.

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3

It will not be for houses in ChCh, prices will rise.

Yes apartments will struggle but people want to live in ChCh and get away from the over populated Auckland and the major issues it now has.

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0

Time to head to that River..
I miss him!

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5

Well, looks we've crashed through yet another floor. Lol. Do any of the 'economists' have even a shred of credibility left now?

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7

Buy the dip?

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1

Or buy the on downward slide.

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3

Yes at the bottom Nifty1.....   I will tell you when I think we are there.

Do a 3month rolling average of a decent data set  (weighted or not, maybe your desired quartile medium or just HPI medium), if its positive for 6 months in a row, its a good sign.   Using technical analysis can help take the emotion out of trading.

Then access current taxation and regulation to determine what the recovery will possibly look like.

Also access if you are better buying in an offshore market.

Property has done well, perhaps its not time to chase the dragon.

 

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8

July 23 to May 24 is known as a "dead cat bounce" in financial market terms.  Meouw.

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9

So many townhouses for sale in my area (Torbay/Long bay)  

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1

It's OK everyone. MSM tells us to survive til 25 and it will all be tikiti boo again.

 

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4

Yield curve only started normalising second half of last year so didn’t really agree with survive till 25. Was more thinking stay alive in 25 (financially). 

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4

Imagine how much worse these stats would be without the ongoing price boom in Riverhead...

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5

RIP wingman

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