Residential property values may be starting to flatten out as 2025 gets underway, according to property data company CoreLogic's Home Value Index for January.
The median value of dwellings throughout the country was $803,819 in January, down by just 0.07% compared to December last year.
That follows a decline of 0.34% in the three months from November 2024 to January 2025, and a drop of 4.28% compared to January last year.
That suggests the decline in dwelling values evident last year has slowed to a crawl and was so small in January this year that values could probably be best described as flat.
A similar pattern is evident in the district figures from around the country, with generally small monthly movements in median values, either up or down, following larger declines compared to three or 12 months earlier.
In the Auckland region the median value declined by just 0.1% in January compared to December. However, it was down 6.5% compared to January last year.
In the Wellington Region the median value was down 0.6% in January compared to December and down 7.4% compared to January last year. Christchurch's median value was 0.1% lower in January compared to December, and unchanged from January last year.
"Since the mini downturn seen through the middle of last year petered out in August, national property values have been in a holding pattern, not moving clearly in either direction," CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said.
"But with mortgage rates having dropped significantly from their peaks, property sales volumes have continued to rise in recent months and may well start to reduce available stock of listings on the market in the near term," he said.
"This could create more competitive pressure amongst buyers and it wouldn't be a surprise to see property values start to rise again shortly," he said.
However Davidson also noted some caution was still warranted.
"Not all areas have stopped falling [in value], including Wellington," he said.
"Given that the economy remains soft and the labour market subdued, it is unlikely we will see a sharp upturn in values," he said.
He also noted debt-to-income ratio caps could also play a role in dampening the market this year.
The comment stream on this article is now closed.
| CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index | ||||
| January 2025 | ||||
| Median Dwelling Value | 1 month change | 3 month change | Annual change | |
| District | ||||
| All of Aotearoa | $803,819 | -0.07% | -0.34% | -4.28% |
| Far North District | $636,538 | 0.11% | -0.79% | -8.96% |
| Whangarei District | $719,145 | 0.34% | -0.16% | -5.80% |
| Kaipara District | $759,548 | -0.13% | -1.38% | -9.34% |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,216,586 | -0.53% | -1.77% | -6.99% |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,291,965 | 0.25% | 0.78% | -3.62% |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $942,671 | 0.04% | 0.65% | -5.14% |
| Auckland - Central suburbs | $1,131,326 | -0.11% | -0.79% | -8.11% |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,014,115 | 0.00% | -0.01% | -6.36% |
| Auckland - Papakura | $815,455 | -0.38% | -0.89% | -7.17% |
| Auckland - Franklin | $900,200 | -0.35% | -0.55% | -5.77% |
| Thames-Coromandel District | $978,471 | -0.64% | -3.00% | -5.96% |
| Hauraki District | $672,281 | 0.64% | -1.21% | -3.43% |
| Waikato District | $888,516 | -0.15% | -1.88% | -2.58% |
| Matamata-Piako District | $671,392 | 0.22% | 0.23% | -4.21% |
| Hamilton City | $748,944 | 0.51% | 1.56% | -1.55% |
| Waipa District | $885,540 | -0.47% | -0.44% | -1.68% |
| Otorohanga District | $620,849 | 0.42% | 0.25% | -4.93% |
| South Waikato District | $435,679 | 0.20% | 3.19% | -0.10% |
| Waitomo District | $454,057 | 0.02% | 0.53% | -5.32% |
| Taupo District | $792,165 | 0.18% | 0.37% | -0.31% |
| Western Bay of Plenty District | $1,066,065 | -0.12% | 1.46% | -2.54% |
| Tauranga City | $904,920 | 0.09% | 0.47% | -3.59% |
| Rotorua District | $608,130 | -0.01% | -0.10% | -0.38% |
| Whakatane District | $735,955 | 0.19% | 0.97% | -2.29% |
| Kawerau District | $386,827 | 0.08% | -0.84% | -6.70% |
| Opotiki District | $612,816 | -0.41% | -1.46% | -0.83% |
| Gisborne District | $581,918 | -0.46% | -1.61% | -7.76% |
| Wairoa District | $373,207 | 0.03% | -0.96% | -10.80% |
| Hastings District | $690,337 | 0.09% | -0.58% | -4.94% |
| Napier City | $689,554 | 0.17% | 1.30% | -3.61% |
| Central Hawke's Bay District | $606,572 | -0.25% | -1.83% | -5.31% |
| New Plymouth District | $703,040 | 0.89% | 0.86% | 0.64% |
| Stratford District | $503,740 | 0.36% | -1.01% | -3.32% |
| South Taranaki District | $403,640 | -0.03% | -0.96% | -5.48% |
| Ruapehu District | $391,554 | -0.07% | 0.34% | -1.83% |
| Whanganui District | $486,074 | 0.08% | -0.20% | 2.45% |
| Rangitikei District | $437,895 | 0.09% | 0.36% | -4.16% |
| Manawatu District | $576,119 | -0.59% | -1.77% | -3.17% |
| Palmerston North City | $601,785 | -0.20% | -0.73% | -3.44% |
| Tararua District | $433,227 | -0.22% | -0.51% | -5.02% |
| Horowhenua District | $513,398 | -0.05% | -0.88% | -5.70% |
| Kapiti Coast District | $808,515 | -0.09% | -0.01% | -4.47% |
| Porirua City | $752,261 | -0.22% | 0.24% | -3.75% |
| Upper Hutt City | $708,418 | -0.38% | -1.40% | -6.13% |
| Lower Hutt City | $670,538 | -0.56% | -1.80% | -6.69% |
| Wellington City | $886,088 | -0.72% | -2.12% | -8.61% |
| Masterton District | $547,340 | -0.40% | -1.91% | -4.92% |
| Carterton District | $664,723 | -1.03% | -2.13% | -10.49% |
| South Wairarapa District | $774,678 | -0.83% | -0.68% | -8.26% |
| Tasman District | $839,088 | -0.03% | -0.49% | -0.72% |
| Nelson City | $742,790 | 0.08% | -0.25% | 1.74% |
| Marlborough District | $662,111 | -0.57% | -1.53% | -2.29% |
| Kaikoura District | $752,805 | -0.18% | 0.24% | 2.38% |
| Buller District | $367,150 | -0.12% | -1.03% | -0.61% |
| Grey District | $398,817 | -0.67% | -0.23% | -1.75% |
| Westland District | $457,692 | -0.49% | -0.94% | 0.54% |
| Hurunui District | $716,593 | -0.33% | -1.49% | -1.81% |
| Waimakariri District | $755,535 | 0.01% | -0.71% | -1.77% |
| Christchurch City | $661,721 | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.05% |
| Selwyn District | $851,880 | 0.08% | -0.55% | -0.88% |
| Ashburton District | $524,409 | -0.32% | -1.68% | 0.99% |
| Timaru District | $504,718 | 0.24% | -0.20% | 1.09% |
| Mackenzie District | $692,710 | 0.31% | 0.69% | -2.68% |
| Waimate District | $474,910 | -0.57% | -0.52% | -2.54% |
| Waitaki District | $490,376 | 0.03% | 0.17% | 1.60% |
| Central Otago District | $875,571 | -0.44% | 0.47% | 2.37% |
| Queenstown-Lakes District | $1,631,244 | 0.05% | 0.35% | 2.39% |
| Dunedin City | $611,677 | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.86% |
| Clutha District | $401,872 | -0.21% | -0.75% | 1.78% |
| Southland District | $561,912 | 0.61% | 1.24% | 2.59% |
| Gore District | $425,918 | 0.22% | 0.88% | 3.69% |
| Invercargill City | $468,161 | -0.15% | -0.48% | 2.52% |
140 Comments
Prices still down and will continue that way into the future..
That's not what the article said, I think you read it wrong.
Just read the CoreLogic data, it's a sea of red, with only a few melting icebergs left for spruikers to cling to..
On an annual basis,yes. quarterly and monthly showing flattening as the article discussed.
Auckland and wellington still holding us back though, I'll give you that.
A frozen market in Auckland and Wellington. The lifeboat our first OCR cut from last August, has yet to arrive to rescue those underwater.
The only one under water is you, Kraken! Now go back to your lair 5km deep in the ocean.
Hi RookieInvestor,
You are absolutely correct ......
Clearly, there are people here who seek to mislead and deceive.
TTP
At least one even has a criminal record for it, apparently.
@kraken - that i have to explain this makes me concerned compare 3 months to a year colum's - you will see a sea of red turning more and more black - i would say a solid 20 % of the red turned into black - when you compare 3 months to one month i can see a few more turning black - that points out that the green shoots are pushing through - if you see a sea of red - may I suggest to change your focus to future - buy a house dont buy a house
Sure things turn green in spring, but winter is coming, be quick to get your discount skiing seasons passes now.
I am willing to make a sure prediction, there will be even more listings on the market by summer, becuase buyers are just not buying at anywhere near the rate new listings are arreiving
There's no point debating with Kraken. He's not here to listen to anyone else's opinion - he just wants to repeat his mantra that house prices are falling.
Nothing moves in a straight line. The overall trend is higher rates and balance sheet reduction. With less liquidity, those who thought their houses were safe in an ocean of debt may find themselves running aground as the tide goes out.
I’ve been reading these headlines since before I bought my own house in Q1 last year…
Loses a lot of credibility to be projecting the same thing over and over without it eventuating.
SKF
Correct. Kelvin said"and may well start to reduce available stock of listings on the market in the near term," he said."
Yet it's not. Trademe toral listings have increased by 10% in the last month alone, probably top 50000 by end of April. With near net zero positive migration, where is the buyer side pressure?
A mortgage rate reduction from 5.29 % {best now}to 4.59%{ best possible in 2 years} hardly reduces tge cost of a million dollar mortgage by $130 a week, and over the next two years of inflation of other householder costs, it's just barely nothing. So mortgage cost reduction is hardly anythiyand buyer pressure is not there,and there's probablyy a 100 k potential seller stock,not on market, (withdrawn listings plus those that would sell if they could see upside in it) I say ,Tell"em they're Dreaming mate.
A sea of red, drowning debt slaves beneath the surface.
drowning debt slaves beneath the surface.
Many DGM's on this site want to believe people are struggling with their debt, it's just not the case in reality. A comment for David C on Tuesdays Recap below.
So there is actually no sign here or any mortgage stress. (It is not in the lender's interest that borrowers make early repayments, but they are.)
So what are many New Zealanders giving up in order to meet their bank commitments. Good food, sufficient food, warm houses during winter, running their cars less, not insuring assets, not maintaining their assets , not going to the doctor, physio, etc etc. Many New Zealanders are currently struggling financially.
I'm sorry things are so tough for you.
@ex agent
So what are many New Zealanders giving up in order to meet their bank commitments
What the comment from David said, was that people are exceeding their commitments, as in paying more than they are required to.
that means people have spare money, not what you are suggesting. any way you try to twist it, they are doing it by their own free will.
I hope this makes sense to you?
I was referring to your comment not his. Many New Zealanders are struggling with their debt and also with other ordinary daily living costs. You are so out of touch . There will always be some individuals who will pay down their debt earlier than they have to. I did it in the 80’s and 90’s. Currently I believe many New Zealanders are under the pump financially and they are taking all sorts of measures to make sure they can keep their house.
Currently I believe many New Zealanders are under the pump financially and they are taking all sorts of measures to make sure they can keep their house.
Just because that's what YOU believe doesn't make it reality.
im not out of touch, you are.
you are retired, probably with no mortgage.
i am one of those making extra payments.
we should also note that borrowers are still making heavy 'excess repayments' over an above their scheduled repayments, an extra $4.4 bln in the December quarter alone, and extra $16 mln for all of 2024. So there is actually no sign here or any mortgage stress. (It is not in the lender's interest that borrowers make early repayments, but they are.)
what about this suggests mortgage holders are under the pump?
I used the word many. Those who have lost their jobs, those on low incomes and those on benefits. If they are making extra payments to the bank I will be surprised. If you are in fact working where do you find the time to come on this site so incessantly.
those on low incomes and those on benefits.
Those are the ones who don't have mortgages
You would be surprised how many own their own home. Many of those homes will be very humble and small. You show your ignorance once again.
since you are retired, i would be sure you have better things to do than argue with a rookie.
Maybe people are finally learning the hard way and are now deciding to pay off that debt faster when they ignored the opportunity to smash it while rates were 3%.
Exactly. That was exactly the smart play with the lowest debt levels in history. Follow by building a vulture fund waiting to pick the speculators approaching car crash.
Those that choose to double and tripple down on debt are gonna be road kill. Watching them delude themselves otherwise with mass spam on here is just sad entertainment. The super cheap loaxs are steadily expiring to market.
Fed is slowing/stopping declines due to inflation concerns. We are the follower.
I do suggest we can feel some sympathy for the younger FHB who were driven by fear when the Reserve Bank was pumping the market with circa $10 billion of taxpayer money and record low interest rates, just in case prices fell during hard times. They could be excused for wondering what governments and reserve bankers might do next to further support higher house prices. They probably feared missing out on home ownership altogether.
The nigh on endless taxpayer and policy support for pushing and keeping house prices higher has been morally reprehensible.
We have almost no debt, so we feel incredibly fortunate. But I feel for those who have been tremendously negatively affected by our policy approach.
The sale of avocados and bread continues to decline
Tell us you’re out of touch without telling us you’re out of touch…
Not being helped with HFL rates
Lol, except we are currently getting daily reports of rates dropping. Retail mortgage rates, NZ govt bond yields, swap rates trending down (at the short end at least)
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/131693/banks-are-now-super-…
https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/131697/nz-govt-bond-tender-934-tender-…
https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/interest-rates/swap-rates
And don't bother talking about 10y+ US govt bonds, they are basically irrelevant to NZ retail mortgage rates.
DGM HFL LOL
Feb and March will be more telling. Flat or down. Up unlikely.
Flat is my pick, Maybe a small amount of up and down.
Bouncing along the bottom.
Sounds like you're in agreement with TA: https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-why-no-one-should-expect-…
Meanwhile keep paying the increasing insurance/rates.. maintenance costs....
"Feb and March will be more telling."
Yep, if you like the latest data, just talk about potential future data, that way no one can point out what you don't like to hear.
Let's celebrate that we're in the midst of another era whereas at best, when adjusted for inflation, house prices are still falling. There is little evidence to suggest things will change anytime soon.
I enjoy how the “adjusted for inflation” gets pulled out whenever things look mildly upside-ish on anything to do with property yet strangely never when discussing other assets, you are absolutely correct, but the bias of when to use it is entertaining 😂
I think Toye is right, flat or slightly down, probably that way for another 6 months then maybe some tiny movement upwards…which when adjusted for inflation…probably won’t move the dial anyway. But, who knows, fair few variables out there 🔮🔮
Because the long-term is the most relevant horizon to property investors (and many home owners), let's acknowledge that house prices have grown by an average of 6.4% per year over the past third of a century (i.e. since 1992). [Opes Partners]
In other words, house prices have shown a 6.4% compounding annual growth rate ...... and that's before we factor in yield (rental return) and a host of intangible benefits.
TTP
P.S. You will have noted that DGMs such as Retired-Poppy are notorious for ignoring yield and the intangibles, despite these being crucial to the vast majority of property purchase decisions. Clearly, an archillees heel for the DGM.
[Edit 1]
Hi Tim, what do you consider a typical yield to try and achieve for a residential long term rental? Do you know what the average yields have done over that same 30 year period as house prices have grown? Genuine question, not being facetious.
I received an email from whatshisface at Opes Partners some years back, where he notes that he invests specifically for capital gains. I hope he has been paying income tax on those capital gains over the years.
More widely, citing the capital gains as reason to be investing suggests far more investors should have been paying their income tax on those gains. Hope you were paying your taxes, TTP.
Look at that, all the DGM's found something they so desperately desire after starving the last 2 days
You come across as depressed.....
Woh! Shots fired, did I say something you didn't like?
Says the person who takes up 30% of the comments section on every property article.
Just responding to what I saw, 1st 4 comments, dgm, kraken, toye and RP.
And you'll respond to every other comment too.
Just ignore him. When people are feeling insecure they seek validation, reassurance and control over others.
They'll comment excessively through rapid-fire responses (without fully processing what's being discussed), while trying to "win" the discussion and using aggressive/dismissive tones to mask their vulnerability.
People who insult rather than discuss are just showing they having nothing to add to the conversation so they try and bring the other people down when they don't like what is being said.
People who insult rather than discuss are just showing they having nothing to add to the conversation so they try and bring the other people down when they don't like what is being said.
by RookieInvestor | 31st Jan 25, 7:46am
Look at that, all the DGM's found something they so desperately desire after starving the last 2 days
I've been discussing, this is the only contribution you've made
by RookieInvestor | 31st Jan 25, 9:31am 1738269101
I've been spamming
by Nzdan | 31st Jan 25, 10:12am
I haven't been contributing at all.
Okay you win.
Anyone notice the influx of new listings coming on to trademe after the Xmas break.
Yea it followed a removal of listing prior to Xmas, they're just being re listed. Hasn't got back to the same levels than before Xmas yet.
Why do people remove their listings before Xmas to then relist a couple of weeks or so later?
Sorry i didn't explain it well. different listing's, not re listing.
People wait to the new year to list their property hence the increase.
People wait to the end of the year to remove their property.
I watched the city I'm in drop by 200 listening end of 2024, I was wondering why.
Why do people wait until the end of the year to remove their properties?
I’d say a few reasons. One, it’s easier to tell your mates over Xmas that you took it off as opposed to no one wants it. Second to avoid the nuisance of potential views during holiday or with no, views more reminders it’s unwanted, third so it can come on as a new listing, not one that has sat for 9 months with no interest.
Because the real estate agents go on holiday and are not back until end of January.
In one of my standard search listings, total listings dropped by about 50 (out of 300) before Xmas then this week 54 listings suddenly reappeared. TradeMe listed them as "new" but they still had the original listing date on them, so they were just "hidden" from view rather than being removed and a new ad created. Ads disappear because the real estate agents go on holiday and are not available to take phone calls or hold open homes. Same with the vendors.
Auctions dont start back until February so not much selling occurs over January.
We have been looking to buy in Devonport/Takapuna and haven't noticed many new listings over here.
incorrect interpretation - prices are still falling
Interest.co.nz - "prices are flat lining"
DGM - "no actually prices are falling"
Auckland is a sea of red for annual, but the RE release just the other day had AKL down like 1%, what a crock of SH^& they are.
My partner has RE License and we have a lot of industry contacts who tell me there is massive FOOP and also just no commitment from buyers except FHB, investors still cannot make numbers work without massive CG. Very little is moving from about 1.8mil upwards with people stuck in 3.5-5mil homes on paper with no buyers.
Welcome to 25 just like 24.
I wish we got more granular data from REINZ/Corelogic on how each quartile of house price, townhouse or standalone, number of bedrooms etc were performing. I think it might tell an interesting story. I assume REINZ report on this internally
The higher quartiles will be dire
Top end is doing fine in Christchurch. They probably always will as the supply of family homes in good school areas is decreasing not increasing, as developers buy up older homes and knock them down and replace them with 2 bedroom shoe boxes. The days of being able to buy an infill section and building a nice house on it are over, ditto for buying a "do-up". So if you want a proper house, you are going to face increasing competition for one.
Townhouses on the other hand are dropping in price daily. What used to be $750k is now $699k. 3 bedroom townhouses are now selling for the old 2 bedroom townhouse price. What is interesting is that brand new builds are also being offered OTP in the $600s now, which hasnt been the case for several years. Seeing some places being advertised for prices that are less than what was paid OTP in 2015 (mainly due to being one in a large complex, and there being social housing tenants in the complex).
Anyone who bought into a large complex, with no/open parking, with half kitchens and no storage, no back yards, and where social housing tenants have been moved in, are in for a right shellacking over the next few years. Those townhouses depreciate in value, and if you are currently "topping" one up, you are simply pouring more good money after bad.
KW, you are correct mostly about the townhouses but we sll know that was always going to happen.
There are still very good opportunities though in ChCh away from multiple two bedroom townhouses.
mmmmm, it looks terrible not a green shoot to be seen anywhere - did anyone say real estate agents are making more money / interest rates are dropping / business confidence up / import rates are down - You really really have to look hard not to see a tide turning - never mind :) buy a house dont buy a house - just remember the way you see the world is a window into your soul :)
You must structure your trades to the reality, not your hoped for outcome.
You are allowed to hold any reality you want in your head, but the market is the real reality, and with property having so little liquidity, crossing the spread in a hurry could be wealth destroying.
There is still a huge amount of unsold overhang. Selling a house is a hassle you have to spend money on tidying up and presentation , marketing etc. Open homes are a hassle for family and tenants. I expect the vendors do want to sell these houses and must be frustrated at the "wasting every ones time level offers".
- Present all offers (just not those ones).
- Vendor needs action (above his breakeven)
- Vendor has purchased (Vendor is a bit desperate paying bridging finance)
- Disregard previous indication (Vendor is hoping you do not know the stupid money they thought they could get last few months)
- By Auction (no chance it will sell but perhaps it creates a sense of deadline)
@IT Guy - you are correct and it is definately the case in a down turn - what I am saying is that the tide is turning - all the bullet points will evaporate when the tide turns - maybe I am stupid maybe I am going to lose everything - I will let you know - for now I am leveraged on my rental properties - mortgage free where I live and the swimming pool is at 28 Degrees and oh yea a couple of coronas in the fridge - :) Welcome to come over and we can discuss your bullet points - PS not sptuiking it worked for me - buy a house dont buy a house up to you
I’ve seen plenty who think they are mortgage free where they live - but in reality not, as the bank has the ability to turn that one around if they have to. Not saying this is you, but some just don’t get it.
@ratus it is a fair comment - you have to have a plan B and C which i do have - in hindsight I am not very happy with my comment I wish i did not say it however it is worth pointing out that it can be done (for how long - is anyones guess) certainly struggled under Ardern goverment. All good
I learnt a valuable lesson sailing Etchells at Cowes, while in most places you have only one low or high, in Cowes you get two.
Personally would be leveraging your own home up to buy property that has upside.
Sitting on unencumbered property just does not make too much sense, but then again everyone has different ideas and some just are accepting that they will not be sble to get ahead financially.
That is the ones that are moaning and groaning and think that investors are losing their shirts.
I can confirm that that is not the case with me or fellow investors in ChCh.
@safeashouses, in trading there is a saying "the trend is your friend until the end of the trend", I guess the DGMs are following that adage since the new data hasn't quite confirmed a "trend reversal" yet.
Is that adage the correct way to think or not? I don't know. I can only say that these sayings/adages are there for a reason - they are probably more often correct than not.
Don't be greedy, you want the knees to the neck.... of any rise.
These articles are meaningless hopium with a contrary data dump and I wish I weren't here commenting on it
The desirability of Auckland is plummetting.
Why?
Its too expensive relative to other locations
It's becoming cheaper relative to other locations.
What is making Auckland increasingly undesirable?
Traffic and lifestyle and no way is it anywhere near "Cheap". I head up there a few times a year to see the family you still need $1.5M for a nice house in a nice area.
What, Auckland lifestyle is undesirable? Since when?
Auckland lifestyle is pretty great compared to other parts of NZ. It's relatively warm and has awesome beaches close by and the city is the most "happening" city in NZ, in terms of entertainment. There is a reason why it costs so much to live there.
Auckland has gone down hill since 1974. It was great up until about 10 years or so ago and the only reason you would stay there is job opportunities and pay rates and possibly better schools if you can even afford to get into the right zone. As soon as you no longer need to work you get the hell out of the place. Better weather elsewhere with way less humidity and no traffic issues and cleaner beaches to swim at. Don't miss the place one bit.
A lot also depends on what is important to you. For many people in their 20s-30s Auckland lifestyle would trump other parts of NZ. For those who are older other parts of NZ might trump Auckland lifestyle.
I would say crime, and its a difficult city to get around , hoping the rail loop once built will change things.
Been trying to make Auckland work for years. Always planned for it to be home, we love it. Friends, family, general vibe of the areas we’ve lived in Auckland. Had held off buying over the past 5 years and had hoped this downturn would be quicker and sharper than what is has turned out being. Auckland is still overpriced. Houses are generally in very poor condition / old and mouldy, rates are high and upkeep even higher. We have now made the decision to buy in another region. We get a lovely house with a small mortgage which reduces our needs significantly to have very high paying jobs.
My question is, how long do you expect the next generation to wait / save before buying a house in Auckland? vs leaving, as the reality sinks in that it’s just simply overpriced.
Everyone knows there is no one splashing the cash in Auckland, but most people keep up the facade that everything is fine
The desirability of Auckland is plummetting.
Who said that? Isn't it getting cheaper due to many more townhouses?
A good question to keep in mind now higher densities are allowed throughout the country ...
Can a new dwelling be constructed in any location of interest after purchasing a median section and building a median house in that location?
If the answer is 'yes' ... Flatline !!!
Its been this way for some time, about 2015 ish the low density started to impact lower quartiles.
Only in Auckland and from about 2016 onwards. Auckland was first off the rank with their higher density rules. (Although the ChCh rebuild could be argued to have come before Auck.) Other areas have followed. The writing is on the wall now across all NZ.
Your point about higher densities 'impacting lower quartiles' is interesting. You may be right. But looking at Auckland's quartiles (actually deciles) I'm not so sure. We need more data which will come in time, but it looks to me it may be affecting the first three quartiles and into the last one, with lessening effects obviously. Methinks those 'investors' buying for capital gains will be sorely disappointed for 10-20 years unless they buy very, very carefully.
I'm seeing an article basing its premise on sales in December. I'd like to see the number of sales the December number is based on vs Oct and Nov. Anyhow, trend development takes more than 3 data points.
I think corelogic spend too long talking to real estate agents. Stability doesn't mean increases. And their view that the number of houses available for sale is reducing doesn't match the statistics
In reality we had about a net 30,000 population increase from migration - but around 33,000 homes were completed in the year to December - so we built enough homes for 70-100,000 people - but population only increased by 30,000. So increase in supply is still outstripping increase in demand.
And the reality is that the supply is largely in Auckland and a little in Wellington. So the traditional belief that Auckland will lead the 'price recovery' is also a little based on a AC view of real estate
Can those who called the bottom last year just admit they were wrong and move on?
Also, when we get to this bottom, how many months of upwards data will be enough to retrospectively confirm it was the bottom?
A previously article said falls occurred in 10/12 months, so do we need rises in 7+?
I am actually being genuine here as there are too many moving goalposts and data points being thrown around to support narratives.
the article basically states we are at the bottom, and we have probably been here since the last quarter of last year. and the bottom will be here for a little while longer, who knows when. could be next month, could be next year.
Look at this graph, what about it suggests we are not at the bottom?
https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz
Could be flat for a few years Rookie but it always ends the same way and prices take off again.
"but it always ends the same way and prices take off again"
Hmmm, sometimes that could take decades though, as in Japan.
If you charted household income to price vs other OECD countries, you may feel there is either
a) more falls coming to NZ.
b) other OECD countries are worth investing in NOW as they will rise to NZs crazy levels. (best strategy if you think NZ is ok here...)
NZ, worst hit in OECD coming out of Covid re GDP, must be very special to have such high house prices relative to income.
What would make us so very very very special enough to see this metric rise further?
At the risk of feeding the lonely troll.
the article basically states we are at the bottom
No it doesn't. Learn to read.
no, you learn to read.
That suggests the decline in dwelling values evident last year has slowed to a crawl and was so small in January this year that values could probably be best described as flat.
Even that statement doesn't support your position that the article says we have reached the bottom.
All it says is that declines have slowed, that they are still falling.
And it certainly doesn't say that they will stop falling and pick up.
You are reading your own personal wishes into it. It does not take a position on what will happen next. Prices could go up and not come down again it would be the bottom, or they could go up a bit and then drop again, they could continue falling at a very slow rate or the falls could accelerate even more. Basic reading comprehension.
Yep, but for now they are flat, who know what will happen in the future? Do you? 😉
No. I didn't call the bottom, you did, which is a prediction on what will happen in the future.
At the risk of feeding the lonely troll.
the article basically states we are at the bottom
No it doesn't. It says 2 things
- Fact - prices still falling
- Hypothetical - prices MAY be flattening out
Learn to read.
No it doesn't. It says 2 things
- Fact - prices still falling
"That suggests the decline in dwelling values evident last year has slowed to a crawl and was so small in January this year that values could probably be best described as flat."
As usual, anytime somebody shouts FACT.. it probably isn't a fact.
Reading comprehension not your strong point either:
the decline in dwelling values evident last year has slowed to a crawl
Fact: Still declining. Not 'stopped declining', still declining
that values could probably be best described as flat
Hypothetical: note how it is phrased as 'could probably be best described', rather than 'are flat'.
Nothing at all about reaching the bottom. It's easier to understand things when you don't start from the position that you want it to say something.
It's easier to understand things when you don't start from the position that you want it to say something.
Lol, like your expectations of home prices in Devonport. Nah, you just dream up mad conspiracy theories instead.
Actual sales buddy, not expectations.
No, a few rotten cherry picked examples then you complain that the homes suburb value isn't dropping like you want it to, even though the homes estimates are overall dropping.
You never mention the other nearby sales that sell near/over 2021 CV and homes estimates like
https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/devonport/9-grahame-street/ODXXe
https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/devonport/49a-vauxhall-road/bVxA4
https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/narrow-neck/2-4-fraser-road/L7AXW
https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/stanley-point/6-summer-street/rwkXk
Etc.
Which keeps the suburb average up against your cherry picked rundown deceased estates.
This issue with 'bottoms' is a tad concerning.
There are three options:
- further falls
- flatlining, lasting many years (ala 1970/80s)
- a resumption of rising prices
Given the primary goal of all residential property investors (well, honest ones that is) is un-taxed capital gains, option 1 & 2 are awful.
But is option 3 any better? It comes down to how fast prices actually rise. My view is that option 2 is the most likely. Therefore, if option 3 were to eventuate, I expect any resumption in rising prices to be extremely modest.
Take care.
Its hard to know why anyone owns investment residential property anymore. They obviously think there are more price rises to come, but as you say they will probably be modest at best, less than inflation.
The only real upside is the leverage, even a tiny price increase can be quite significant if your investment is only a small percentage of the value. But of course the opposite of that is very painful.
Agreed. Those under pressure for a parachute are dreaming. Renters exiting, less arriving, govt unable to find an upturn, NZ making a loss even while slashing spending. and the US looking to hold rates thereabouts.
25 gonna be a very interesting year.
🍿 + ⛽️ = 🔥
The big problem with buying an investment property here is you do not know what future administrations will do, sure NAct are friendly, you may want to buy here or start a coal mine, however TPM and the Greens view landlords like coal mine operators...
Will Labour aim its wealth tax and CGT at you, YES THEY WILL
And National-ACT have just changed tax policy to apply retrospectively, so apparently that's something that's allowed.
Jimbo, you are correct the returns on property being bought now doesnt make any sense, with the rental yield’s available.
However do you know anyone that is currently buying to rent them out ?
there are other ways to invest that will provide better gains.
It doesn't matter whether you buy it now or bought it 20 years ago, it doesn't make sense.
Sure if you bought it 20 years ago you will be making a good yield on your initial investment, but you would be much better off selling it and investing in something else. Unless house prices go up or the "something else" goes down that is!
What would you suggest to invest millions into that would give me the security that our property currently does?
Yes we could invest in shares but Na!
Term Deposits, very poor returns.
Property done correctly will outperform most things and with not having to put any $ in!
ALL investing has risks.
You've answered your own question by stating that as long as the leveraged investment keeps going up in value, even if it's small rises, then that's a "win" as long as it makes more than it costs "at the end of the day". If an investor expects a 2% annual rise in house prices p/a for the next 10-20 years, plus a 5 % rental yield (increasing annually), that could be a decent investment for them depending on how they've structured it, etc.
Certainly with respect to Auckland, how much of the reduction in values is the massive upswing in the buld/sales of small townhouses since the unitary plan came in. I don't know about you, but in my area of Auckland the average sale was probably a 3.5 bedroom standalone home on 600sqm, and it's now probably more a 3.0 bedroom townhouse on zero land with a single garage. Average values have definitely declined but I'd say they're amplified by the massive increase in sales of comparatively low-end housing.
Some but the 3.2 million homes on 800sq m have also fallen, maybe because they where mainly land value and could easily become 5-6 townhouses in 2021, not so much now.. maybe worth 2.2 now... or less if an old home
Indeed. You are correct. Those that don't understand what a 'median' or 'average' are doomed to form bad opinions.
That’s why, more than ever, the HPI is the only decent measure
This seems like a good location for this comment: ex-landlords price was revealed.
After 9 years of ownership, it returned +18%. The three years rent they got from it was another +9%.
I wonder how much they paid in interest, rates, and insurance? (note minimal maintenance was spent until preparing for sale, which was a repaint + 0.5%, which I know because they tried to claim it from us).
Context? Link?
Auckland Central. Large.
If you'll forgive me Chris, I won't provide a link or specific details, nor will I confirm or deny any who find it.
But it did not sell at a nominal loss - disproving the claim TBC is only used for losses.
Correct, TBC is just that, To Be Confirmed. They don't show prices until the property has settled and the figures have come through from the council, which can take several months after settlement. And AFAIK, the TBC listing are only the listings of those agents that pay for "Premium" status, the sales of agents that don't pay for premium aren't shown until they come through from the council.
There is the exception when the agent tells them it is okay to show the price before its confirmed by council, which I can quite imagine is only on sales that achieve what the agent sees as a good result, (and hopefully only after its unconditional or settled, with the vendors permission)
all explained in their FAQ, but not exactly advertised .. https://homesconz.zohodesk.com/portal/en/kb/articles/what-is-a-non-stan… (right at the bottom)
Just ring the agent and ask them if you really need to know. Is how this operated before website existed. Be polite.
Would add that when houses were new record price every week, the prices seemed to avoid this delay and would appear withing days. Perhaps it's just a way of trying to supress and thus slow the truth as things fall.
This thread is about the nonsense that was posted over the weekend of TBC being only used on properties that sell below CV/Estimate to hide the crashing prices. Except neither part of that statement is true.
I found a few properties that were sold in March/April last year still showing $TBC. Quite a few infact.
Would that still fall within a reasonable time frame?
This thread is about the nonsense that was posted over the weekend of TBC being only used on properties that sell below CV/Estimate to hide the crashing prices. Except neither part of that statement is true.
Are you still unable to understand how it works. Bless.
Sorry, not buying into your wild imaginings of how you imagine it works, I'm not into tinfoil headwear.
Here's another one for you. Recently sold. Dec 2024 valued at $2.1M. Price TBC. You tell me how much it's sold for champ.
https://homes.co.nz/address/devonport/devonport/13-anne-st/gJPEN
Biggest market still falling in price 6 to 7% in a year on top of larger falls two years prior. Interest rates will no save the tumbling as will stay around this level and could go up if the NZD keeps losing value.
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