Residential property values may be starting to flatten out as 2025 gets underway, according to property data company CoreLogic's Home Value Index for January.
The median value of dwellings throughout the country was $803,819 in January, down by just 0.07% compared to December last year.
That follows a decline of 0.34% in the three months from November 2024 to January 2025, and a drop of 4.28% compared to January last year.
That suggests the decline in dwelling values evident last year has slowed to a crawl and was so small in January this year that values could probably be best described as flat.
A similar pattern is evident in the district figures from around the country, with generally small monthly movements in median values, either up or down, following larger declines compared to three or 12 months earlier.
In the Auckland region the median value declined by just 0.1% in January compared to December. However, it was down 6.5% compared to January last year.
In the Wellington Region the median value was down 0.6% in January compared to December and down 7.4% compared to January last year. Christchurch's median value was 0.1% lower in January compared to December, and unchanged from January last year.
"Since the mini downturn seen through the middle of last year petered out in August, national property values have been in a holding pattern, not moving clearly in either direction," CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said.
"But with mortgage rates having dropped significantly from their peaks, property sales volumes have continued to rise in recent months and may well start to reduce available stock of listings on the market in the near term," he said.
"This could create more competitive pressure amongst buyers and it wouldn't be a surprise to see property values start to rise again shortly," he said.
However Davidson also noted some caution was still warranted.
"Not all areas have stopped falling [in value], including Wellington," he said.
"Given that the economy remains soft and the labour market subdued, it is unlikely we will see a sharp upturn in values," he said.
He also noted debt-to-income ratio caps could also play a role in dampening the market this year.
| CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index | ||||
| January 2025 | ||||
| Median Dwelling Value | 1 month change | 3 month change | Annual change | |
| District | ||||
| All of Aotearoa | $803,819 | -0.07% | -0.34% | -4.28% |
| Far North District | $636,538 | 0.11% | -0.79% | -8.96% |
| Whangarei District | $719,145 | 0.34% | -0.16% | -5.80% |
| Kaipara District | $759,548 | -0.13% | -1.38% | -9.34% |
| Auckland - Rodney | $1,216,586 | -0.53% | -1.77% | -6.99% |
| Auckland - North Shore | $1,291,965 | 0.25% | 0.78% | -3.62% |
| Auckland - Waitakere | $942,671 | 0.04% | 0.65% | -5.14% |
| Auckland - Central suburbs | $1,131,326 | -0.11% | -0.79% | -8.11% |
| Auckland - Manukau | $1,014,115 | 0.00% | -0.01% | -6.36% |
| Auckland - Papakura | $815,455 | -0.38% | -0.89% | -7.17% |
| Auckland - Franklin | $900,200 | -0.35% | -0.55% | -5.77% |
| Thames-Coromandel District | $978,471 | -0.64% | -3.00% | -5.96% |
| Hauraki District | $672,281 | 0.64% | -1.21% | -3.43% |
| Waikato District | $888,516 | -0.15% | -1.88% | -2.58% |
| Matamata-Piako District | $671,392 | 0.22% | 0.23% | -4.21% |
| Hamilton City | $748,944 | 0.51% | 1.56% | -1.55% |
| Waipa District | $885,540 | -0.47% | -0.44% | -1.68% |
| Otorohanga District | $620,849 | 0.42% | 0.25% | -4.93% |
| South Waikato District | $435,679 | 0.20% | 3.19% | -0.10% |
| Waitomo District | $454,057 | 0.02% | 0.53% | -5.32% |
| Taupo District | $792,165 | 0.18% | 0.37% | -0.31% |
| Western Bay of Plenty District | $1,066,065 | -0.12% | 1.46% | -2.54% |
| Tauranga City | $904,920 | 0.09% | 0.47% | -3.59% |
| Rotorua District | $608,130 | -0.01% | -0.10% | -0.38% |
| Whakatane District | $735,955 | 0.19% | 0.97% | -2.29% |
| Kawerau District | $386,827 | 0.08% | -0.84% | -6.70% |
| Opotiki District | $612,816 | -0.41% | -1.46% | -0.83% |
| Gisborne District | $581,918 | -0.46% | -1.61% | -7.76% |
| Wairoa District | $373,207 | 0.03% | -0.96% | -10.80% |
| Hastings District | $690,337 | 0.09% | -0.58% | -4.94% |
| Napier City | $689,554 | 0.17% | 1.30% | -3.61% |
| Central Hawke's Bay District | $606,572 | -0.25% | -1.83% | -5.31% |
| New Plymouth District | $703,040 | 0.89% | 0.86% | 0.64% |
| Stratford District | $503,740 | 0.36% | -1.01% | -3.32% |
| South Taranaki District | $403,640 | -0.03% | -0.96% | -5.48% |
| Ruapehu District | $391,554 | -0.07% | 0.34% | -1.83% |
| Whanganui District | $486,074 | 0.08% | -0.20% | 2.45% |
| Rangitikei District | $437,895 | 0.09% | 0.36% | -4.16% |
| Manawatu District | $576,119 | -0.59% | -1.77% | -3.17% |
| Palmerston North City | $601,785 | -0.20% | -0.73% | -3.44% |
| Tararua District | $433,227 | -0.22% | -0.51% | -5.02% |
| Horowhenua District | $513,398 | -0.05% | -0.88% | -5.70% |
| Kapiti Coast District | $808,515 | -0.09% | -0.01% | -4.47% |
| Porirua City | $752,261 | -0.22% | 0.24% | -3.75% |
| Upper Hutt City | $708,418 | -0.38% | -1.40% | -6.13% |
| Lower Hutt City | $670,538 | -0.56% | -1.80% | -6.69% |
| Wellington City | $886,088 | -0.72% | -2.12% | -8.61% |
| Masterton District | $547,340 | -0.40% | -1.91% | -4.92% |
| Carterton District | $664,723 | -1.03% | -2.13% | -10.49% |
| South Wairarapa District | $774,678 | -0.83% | -0.68% | -8.26% |
| Tasman District | $839,088 | -0.03% | -0.49% | -0.72% |
| Nelson City | $742,790 | 0.08% | -0.25% | 1.74% |
| Marlborough District | $662,111 | -0.57% | -1.53% | -2.29% |
| Kaikoura District | $752,805 | -0.18% | 0.24% | 2.38% |
| Buller District | $367,150 | -0.12% | -1.03% | -0.61% |
| Grey District | $398,817 | -0.67% | -0.23% | -1.75% |
| Westland District | $457,692 | -0.49% | -0.94% | 0.54% |
| Hurunui District | $716,593 | -0.33% | -1.49% | -1.81% |
| Waimakariri District | $755,535 | 0.01% | -0.71% | -1.77% |
| Christchurch City | $661,721 | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.05% |
| Selwyn District | $851,880 | 0.08% | -0.55% | -0.88% |
| Ashburton District | $524,409 | -0.32% | -1.68% | 0.99% |
| Timaru District | $504,718 | 0.24% | -0.20% | 1.09% |
| Mackenzie District | $692,710 | 0.31% | 0.69% | -2.68% |
| Waimate District | $474,910 | -0.57% | -0.52% | -2.54% |
| Waitaki District | $490,376 | 0.03% | 0.17% | 1.60% |
| Central Otago District | $875,571 | -0.44% | 0.47% | 2.37% |
| Queenstown-Lakes District | $1,631,244 | 0.05% | 0.35% | 2.39% |
| Dunedin City | $611,677 | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.86% |
| Clutha District | $401,872 | -0.21% | -0.75% | 1.78% |
| Southland District | $561,912 | 0.61% | 1.24% | 2.59% |
| Gore District | $425,918 | 0.22% | 0.88% | 3.69% |
| Invercargill City | $468,161 | -0.15% | -0.48% | 2.52% |
63 Comments
@kraken - that i have to explain this makes me concerned compare 3 months to a year colum's - you will see a sea of red turning more and more black - i would say a solid 20 % of the red turned into black - when you compare 3 months to one month i can see a few more turning black - that points out that the green shoots are pushing through - if you see a sea of red - may I suggest to change your focus to future - buy a house dont buy a house
Sure things turn green in spring, but winter is coming, be quick to get your discount skiing seasons passes now.
I am willing to make a sure prediction, there will be even more listings on the market by summer, becuase buyers are just not buying at anywhere near the rate new listings are arreiving
drowning debt slaves beneath the surface.
Many DGM's on this site want to believe people are struggling with their debt, it's just not the case in reality. A comment for David C on Tuesdays Recap below.
So there is actually no sign here or any mortgage stress. (It is not in the lender's interest that borrowers make early repayments, but they are.)
So what are many New Zealanders giving up in order to meet their bank commitments. Good food, sufficient food, warm houses during winter, running their cars less, not insuring assets, not maintaining their assets , not going to the doctor, physio, etc etc. Many New Zealanders are currently struggling financially.
Lol, except we are currently getting daily reports of rates dropping. Retail mortgage rates, NZ govt bond yields, swap rates trending down (at the short end at least)
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/131693/banks-are-now-super-…
https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/131697/nz-govt-bond-tender-934-tender-…
https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/interest-rates/swap-rates
And don't bother talking about 10y+ US govt bonds, they are basically irrelevant to NZ retail mortgage rates.
Sounds like you're in agreement with TA: https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-why-no-one-should-expect-…
I enjoy how the “adjusted for inflation” gets pulled out whenever things look mildly upside-ish on anything to do with property yet strangely never when discussing other assets, you are absolutely correct, but the bias of when to use it is entertaining 😂
I think Toye is right, flat or slightly down, probably that way for another 6 months then maybe some tiny movement upwards…which when adjusted for inflation…probably won’t move the dial anyway. But, who knows, fair few variables out there 🔮🔮
Because the long-term is the most relevant horizon to property investors (and many home owners), let's acknowledge that house prices have grown by an average of 6.4% per year over the past third of a century (i.e. since 1992). [Opes Partners]
In other words, house prices have shown a 6.4% compounding annual growth rate ...... and that's before we factor in yield (rental return) and a host of intangible benefits.
TTP
P.S. You will have noted that DGMs such as Retired-Poppy are notorious for ignoring yield and the intangibles, despite these being crucial to the vast majority of property purchase decisions. Clearly, an archillees heel for the DGM.
[Edit 1]
Just ignore him. When people are feeling insecure they seek validation, reassurance and control over others.
They'll comment excessively through rapid-fire responses (without fully processing what's being discussed), while trying to "win" the discussion and using aggressive/dismissive tones to mask their vulnerability.
People who insult rather than discuss are just showing they having nothing to add to the conversation so they try and bring the other people down when they don't like what is being said.
by RookieInvestor | 31st Jan 25, 7:46am
Look at that, all the DGM's found something they so desperately desire after starving the last 2 days
by RookieInvestor | 31st Jan 25, 9:31am 1738269101
I've been spamming
Sorry i didn't explain it well. different listing's, not re listing.
People wait to the new year to list their property hence the increase.
People wait to the end of the year to remove their property.
I watched the city I'm in drop by 200 listening end of 2024, I was wondering why.
I’d say a few reasons. One, it’s easier to tell your mates over Xmas that you took it off as opposed to no one wants it. Second to avoid the nuisance of potential views during holiday or with no, views more reminders it’s unwanted, third so it can come on as a new listing, not one that has sat for 9 months with no interest.
In one of my standard search listings, total listings dropped by about 50 (out of 300) before Xmas then this week 54 listings suddenly reappeared. TradeMe listed them as "new" but they still had the original listing date on them, so they were just "hidden" from view rather than being removed and a new ad created. Ads disappear because the real estate agents go on holiday and are not available to take phone calls or hold open homes. Same with the vendors.
Auctions dont start back until February so not much selling occurs over January.
Auckland is a sea of red for annual, but the RE release just the other day had AKL down like 1%, what a crock of SH^& they are.
My partner has RE License and we have a lot of industry contacts who tell me there is massive FOOP and also just no commitment from buyers except FHB, investors still cannot make numbers work without massive CG. Very little is moving from about 1.8mil upwards with people stuck in 3.5-5mil homes on paper with no buyers.
Welcome to 25 just like 24.
Top end is doing fine in Christchurch. They probably always will as the supply of family homes in good school areas is decreasing not increasing, as developers buy up older homes and knock them down and replace them with 2 bedroom shoe boxes. The days of being able to buy an infill section and building a nice house on it are over, ditto for buying a "do-up". So if you want a proper house, you are going to face increasing competition for one.
Townhouses on the other hand are dropping in price daily. What used to be $750k is now $699k. 3 bedroom townhouses are now selling for the old 2 bedroom townhouse price. What is interesting is that brand new builds are also being offered OTP in the $600s now, which hasnt been the case for several years. Seeing some places being advertised for prices that are less than what was paid OTP in 2015 (mainly due to being one in a large complex, and there being social housing tenants in the complex).
Anyone who bought into a large complex, with no/open parking, with half kitchens and no storage, no back yards, and where social housing tenants have been moved in, are in for a right shellacking over the next few years. Those townhouses depreciate in value, and if you are currently "topping" one up, you are simply pouring more good money after bad.
mmmmm, it looks terrible not a green shoot to be seen anywhere - did anyone say real estate agents are making more money / interest rates are dropping / business confidence up / import rates are down - You really really have to look hard not to see a tide turning - never mind :) buy a house dont buy a house - just remember the way you see the world is a window into your soul :)
You must structure your trades to the reality, not your hoped for outcome.
You are allowed to hold any reality you want in your head, but the market is the real reality, and with property having so little liquidity, crossing the spread in a hurry could be wealth destroying.
There is still a huge amount of unsold overhang. Selling a house is a hassle you have to spend money on tidying up and presentation , marketing etc. Open homes are a hassle for family and tenants. I expect the vendors do want to sell these houses and must be frustrated at the "wasting every ones time level offers".
- Present all offers (just not those ones).
- Vendor needs action (above his breakeven)
- Vendor has purchased (Vendor is a bit desperate paying bridging finance)
- Disregard previous indication (Vendor is hoping you do not know the stupid money they thought they could get last few months)
- By Auction (no chance it will sell but perhaps it creates a sense of deadline)
@IT Guy - you are correct and it is definately the case in a down turn - what I am saying is that the tide is turning - all the bullet points will evaporate when the tide turns - maybe I am stupid maybe I am going to lose everything - I will let you know - for now I am leveraged on my rental properties - mortgage free where I live and the swimming pool is at 28 Degrees and oh yea a couple of coronas in the fridge - :) Welcome to come over and we can discuss your bullet points - PS not sptuiking it worked for me - buy a house dont buy a house up to you
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